When will restrictions finally end?

[yorksrob]

But it actually needs quite a large number of people vaccinated, just having a vaccine available isn't enough if you don't actually use it!

In term of vaccinating as many adults want it (and with both jabs in a slightly in a longer time frame) it will take into autumn hence a bit of nervousness on their part about autumn being close to winter!

The reality is that restrictions will be lifted bit by bit in response to deaths/ hospitalisations/cases dropping and warmer weather will also help.

The really is that they want to leave some wriggle room in case covid throws us a few more surprises.

Boris always over promises and under delivers!

I think the large section of the population for whom their livelihoods/interests are always first to be sacrificed/lowest priority, may not be so patient with a very slow lifting of restrictions and potential years of having them reinstated.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jan 2021 ==

Enter Nigel Farage.

You are not making this any easier.

The main parties can listen to people and represent the electorate as a whole, or not bother and copy eachother instead. It's their choice.

 

[MikeWM]

Enter Nigel Farage.

You are not making this any easier.

Farage self-destructed last night on Twitter when he suggested Tony Blair should be in charge of the vaccine program. To say that this didn't go down well would be quite an understatement!

 

[bb21]

Scientists, especially senior scientists, are not inhuman drones that slavishly and without question follow the absolute scientific method.
They are people with prejudices caused by experiences, worldview and position in life, just like everyone else.

It is quite possible for two reasoned scientists to examine data and come to opposite conclusions.

I think you are being rather unfair on them. There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that they held the government to ransom, or that they deliberately misrepresented any data to fit their own agenda.

They have their questionable moments, and of course every one has some emotional baggage which subconsciously affect how we look at things, but by and large they have stuck to what science said. All science and scientific modelling come with a set of assumptions and parameters, and I believe the oft-quoted significant death figures were clear from the outset worst case scenarios, which were never going to be reality unless we had a major catastrophe. It doesn't mean the model was wrong or failed. Competent scientists should have the ability to minimise the impact their emotional baggage have on their scientific work.

You are right that sometimes two similarly qualified scientists may drawn different conclusions from the same dataset. It is a politician's job to take advice from a wide range of sources and make policy decisions after weighing up the pros and cons of different measures. The fact that this government is seemingly either unwilling or unqualified to do so is not the scientists' fault. Scientists do not run countries. Likewise the failure of mass media to present information truthfully and accurately is not the fault of scientists.

I am rather dismayed in general throughout this pandemic at the ways scientists and science have been made scapegoats for government failures, media failures, and (some) people's own inability to suitably interpret data and/or understand scientific conclusions, and the fact that the type of inferences you are making is seemingly gaining momentum.

 

[43096]

People need to face up to the fact that until we're all vaccinated then life won't return to any kind of normal within the UK and also, that when that day happens - that foreign travel will be completely different to the way it's been for the best part of 50 years.

No. Just no. This is the sort of tripe that needs to be shot down. This is where the world has completely lost the plot and lost any sense of proportion and risk. We do not need everyone vaccinated to go back to normality. It bears repeating: for the vast majority of those infected it is a mild illness, indeed for many there are no symptoms at all. Once the high risk groups have been vaccinated there is no justification for continuing to lock people down (and squander billions of pounds doing so).

 

[Jamiescott1]

People need to face up to the fact that until we're all vaccinated then life won't return to any kind of normal within the UK and also, that when that day happens - that foreign travel will be completely different to the way it's been for the best part of 50 years.

I had 2 foreign holidays in July and August 2020 apart from departure airport in the uk and in-flight experience everything abroad was normal, so don't see why it won't be in the future.

 

[MattA7]

If that prediction comes to fruition I will seriously consider emigrating to somewhere where life is somewhat normal.

This is the dilemma that had been going through my head for a while. I have considered going to live with my fathers side of the family abroad (at least until all this nonsense blows over) but I know I would have to sort a lot of things out first so I becomes a issue of trying to assess the pros and cons.

 

[Class 33]

Some more thoughts from me on when I think the national lockdown, tiered system and other restrictions may end.

Well when we were in the Tiered system just before this ridiculous national lockdown was announced, Johnson did say the Tiered system had a "sunset" of 3rd February, and there would be a vote in parliament on 27th January on whether it should continue beyond that date. By then I was expecting the healthcare and deaths starts to really be heading south, as a result of all these vaccinations kicking in. And thought it would the vote could be very close, unlike the previous votes on restrictions. But unfortunately as a result of this third(!!!) national lockdown, all this has gone out the window now!

So we now have this national lockdown again, and due to be reviewed on 15th February. By then surely surely surely the effects of all these vaccinations should really have kicked in by then, and the healthcare and deaths should be falling progressively week on week. But am maybe not quite so confident this would be the case by then, as in the meantime all the stats are unfortunately still going up. And maybe something or other might mess things up a bit(again!!), for instance the vaccination rollout not going quite as well as intended, or even a third strain of Coronavirus comes along. But hopefully things are much better by then, and upon the review date of 15th February the decision is made to end the national lockdown, though then returning(again!!) to the Tiered system. Though my gut feeling is that unfortunately come that day, Johnson and his cabinet will decide to extend the national lockdown for at least another 3 weeks, which would then take us into March!

But as we go into March, whether we're still in a national lockdown or back to the Tiered system again, as a result of all the millions of vaccinations that would have been administered by then, the healthcare and deaths should by then be pretty low. And a reminder that the legislation for the Coronavirus restrictions is due to expire on 31st March. So I guess around the 24th March there will be a vote in parliament as to whether the legislation for these restrictions should be extended beyond that date. If the healthcare and deaths stats are indeed very very low by then, then why an earth would the majority of MP's vote for the legislation to continue into April and beyond? That would be just insanity and madness of the highest level! We need to start the recovery from all this and the return of normal life! If indeed the legislation is not extended though, it seems the restrictions would still continue just slightly longer until Easter Sunday/4th April, and Easter Monday/5th April would be the day when all restrictions would be gone. Johnson has specifically mentioned this particular date a couple of times in his recent Downing Street press conferences.

So in summary, I think the national lockdown and/or the Tiered system could unfortunately continue into March. Which seems ages away at the moment. It's going to be long tough couple of months ahead of us. But come Easter Monday - exactly three calendar months away from now, I'm feeling fairly confident we should at long last finally be rid of these lockdowns and all these restrictions nonsense. I don't think this is all going to continue into May and beyond.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Fairly obvious for a while that A) Covid is here to stay in some capacity and B) The world will be facing restrictions for the short and medium term as we come to deal with this. People need to face up to the fact that until we're all vaccinated then life won't return to any kind of normal within the UK and also, that when that day happens - that foreign travel will be completely different to the way it's been for the best part of 50 years.

Well given the looming climate challenge the world has found one ready made solution to eliminating air travel and its contribution to Co2 levels.

Some more thoughts from me on when I think the national lockdown, tiered system and other restrictions may end.

Well when we were in the Tiered system just before this ridiculous national lockdown was announced, Johnson did say the Tiered system had a "sunset" of 3rd February, and there would be a vote in parliament on 27th January on whether it should continue beyond that date. By then I was expecting the healthcare and deaths starts to really be heading south, as a result of all these vaccinations kicking in. And thought it would the vote could be very close, unlike the previous votes on restrictions. But unfortunately as a result of this third(!!!) national lockdown, all this has gone out the window now!

So we now have this national lockdown again, and due to be reviewed on 15th February. By then surely surely surely the effects of all these vaccinations should really have kicked in by then, and the healthcare and deaths should be falling progressively week on week. But am maybe not quite so confident this would be the case by then, as in the meantime all the stats are unfortunately still going up. And maybe something or other might mess things up a bit(again!!), for instance the vaccination rollout not going quite as well as intended, or even a third strain of Coronavirus comes along. But hopefully things are much better by then, and upon the review date of 15th February the decision is made to end the national lockdown, though then returning(again!!) to the Tiered system. Though my gut feeling is that unfortunately come that day, Johnson and his cabinet will decide to extend the national lockdown for at least another 3 weeks, which would then take us into March!

But as we go into March, whether we're still in a national lockdown or back to the Tiered system again, as a result of all the millions of vaccinations that would have been administered by then, the healthcare and deaths should by then be pretty low. And a reminder that the legislation for the Coronavirus restrictions is due to expire on 31st March. So I guess around the 24th March there will be a vote in parliament as to whether the legislation for these restrictions should be extended beyond that date. If the healthcare and deaths stats are indeed very very low by then, then why an earth would the majority of MP's vote for the legislation to continue into April and beyond? That would be just insanity and madness of the highest level! We need to start the recovery from all this and the return of normal life! If indeed the legislation is not extended though, it seems the restrictions would still continue just slightly longer until Easter Sunday/4th April, and Easter Monday/5th April would be the day when all restrictions would be gone. Johnson has specifically mentioned this particular date a couple of times in his recent Downing Street press conferences.

So in summary, I think the national lockdown and/or the Tiered system could unfortunately continue into March. Which seems ages away at the moment. It's going to be long tough couple of months ahead of us. But come Easter Monday - exactly three calendar months away from now, I'm feeling fairly confident we should at long last finally be rid of these lockdowns and all these restrictions nonsense. I don't think this is all going to continue into May and beyond.

Umm your banking on labour changing tack which is highly unlikely as they are totally leveraged to saving everyone even if it means all of us get dragged down. Indeed that suits there need to have as many impoverished people as possible more chance of them voting for them at next election.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Some more thoughts from me on when I think the national lockdown, tiered system and other restrictions may end.

Well when we were in the Tiered system just before this ridiculous national lockdown was announced, Johnson did say the Tiered system had a "sunset" of 3rd February, and there would be a vote in parliament on 27th January on whether it should continue beyond that date. By then I was expecting the healthcare and deaths starts to really be heading south, as a result of all these vaccinations kicking in. And thought it would the vote could be very close, unlike the previous votes on restrictions. But unfortunately as a result of this third(!!!) national lockdown, all this has gone out the window now!

So we now have this national lockdown again, and due to be reviewed on 15th February. By then surely surely surely the effects of all these vaccinations should really have kicked in by then, and the healthcare and deaths should be falling progressively week on week. But am maybe not quite so confident this would be the case by then, as in the meantime all the stats are unfortunately still going up. And maybe something or other might mess things up a bit(again!!), for instance the vaccination rollout not going quite as well as intended, or even a third strain of Coronavirus comes along. But hopefully things are much better by then, and upon the review date of 15th February the decision is made to end the national lockdown, though then returning(again!!) to the Tiered system. Though my gut feeling is that unfortunately come that day, Johnson and his cabinet will decide to extend the national lockdown for at least another 3 weeks, which would then take us into March!

But as we go into March, whether we're still in a national lockdown or back to the Tiered system again, as a result of all the millions of vaccinations that would have been administered by then, the healthcare and deaths should by then be pretty low. And a reminder that the legislation for the Coronavirus restrictions is due to expire on 31st March. So I guess around the 24th March there will be a vote in parliament as to whether the legislation for these restrictions should be extended beyond that date. If the healthcare and deaths stats are indeed very very low by then, then why an earth would the majority of MP's vote for the legislation to continue into April and beyond? That would be just insanity and madness of the highest level! We need to start the recovery from all this and the return of normal life! If indeed the legislation is not extended though, it seems the restrictions would still continue just slightly longer until Easter Sunday/4th April, and Easter Monday/5th April would be the day when all restrictions would be gone. Johnson has specifically mentioned this particular date a couple of times in his recent Downing Street press conferences.

So in summary, I think the national lockdown and/or the Tiered system could unfortunately continue into March. Which seems ages away at the moment. It's going to be long tough couple of months ahead of us. But come Easter Monday - exactly three calendar months away from now, I'm feeling fairly confident we should at long last finally be rid of these lockdowns and all these restrictions nonsense. I don't think this is all going to continue into May and beyond.

I hope you're right - not least because my birthday is just after Easter, on the 7th!

 

[Class 33]

Well given the looming climate challenge the world has found one ready made solution to eliminating air travel and its contribution to Co2 levels.

Umm your banking on labour changing tack which is highly unlikely as they are totally leveraged to saving everyone even if it means all of us get dragged down. Indeed that suits there need to have as many impoverished people as possible more chance of them voting for them at next election.

Well we'll have to see what happens. But if all this does end up dragging into the summer until godknows when and still no definite end in sight, then that will be the real turning point I think. Many people of this country just won't be able to stand for all this nonsense any longer, and there could well be frequent civil unrest up and down the country.

That said, I'm still feeling pretty positive that this will be over by Easter Monday. And that's what's keeping me going.

 

[Darandio]

and there could well be frequent civil unrest up and down the country.

If I had a pound.......

When lockdown one happened people on here predicted civil unrest within a month. When masks were mandated civil unrest was predicted. When the tier system was introduced people predicted civil unrest. Lockdown two? You guessed it, civil unrest and here we are again.

I'm not saying it's never going to happen but I still think it's unlikely purely based on how the restrictions have played out with many people still just going about their business. If restrictions ever came to the point of people being forced to stay indoors with a massive police or army presence actively monitoring people leaving their houses then maybe it would be triggered.

 

[LittleAH]

Scientists, especially senior scientists, are not inhuman drones that slavishly and without question follow the absolute scientific method.
They are people with prejudices caused by experiences, worldview and position in life, just like everyone else.

It is quite possible for two reasoned scientists to examine data and come to opposite conclusions.



We would still be stuck in an endless series of lockdowns, because thats what SAGE signed us up for.
Even the originaL Ferguson study admitted this.

Utter codswallop. It's logic.

1) Suppress the virus to ensure that health systems aren't overwhelmed
2) Suppress the virus to reduce mutations. More people that are mutated, the more potential for mutations which could make any vaccine null and void.

If you want to live is some fantasy world where medical professionals want to live in some bubble, you do you. But it's a nonsensical conspiracy theory and a mad one at that.

 

[The Ham]

No. Just no. This is the sort of tripe that needs to be shot down. This is where the world has completely lost the plot and lost any sense of proportion and risk. We do not need everyone vaccinated to go back to normality. It bears repeating: for the vast majority of those infected it is a mild illness, indeed for many there are no symptoms at all. Once the high risk groups have been vaccinated there is no justification for continuing to lock people down (and squander billions of pounds doing so).

The one thing I will highlight is that there's likely to be quite a few who are high risk who can't have the vaccine and so there's a need for as many of us to have the vaccine once offered even if deaths have been zero for several weeks by the time it's our turn.

As of we don't then ask it would take is for a case to be brought in form elsewhere and we could have localised outbreaks (most likely centered on areas where uptake was low) which could result in several deaths if it ends up infecting those unable to be vaccinated who are high risk.

Note this isn't saying that we need lockdowns until most of us have been vaccinated, as they should be able to be eased about Easter and as long as uptake of the vaccine continues any future restrictions on following winters are likely to be very limited in scale.

I suspect that future restrictions may include:
- testing upon return from high risk areas
- a slight nudge that WFH might be useful
- suggestions that if you're going to see an at risk person you limit your interesting before doing so

Along with other (probably all less than we did in the summer) minor changes, but mostly if there's high numbers of cases (so would likely to be regional in nature). However chances are by the following winter, then things would likely be even less restrictive (maybe limited guidance to those who are high risk). Especially if there was good progress on vaccinations worldwide.

 

[Richard Scott]

Utter codswallop. It's logic.

1) Suppress the virus to ensure that health systems aren't overwhelmed
2) Suppress the virus to reduce mutations. More people that are mutated, the more potential for mutations which could make any vaccine null and void.

If you want to live is some fantasy world where medical professionals want to live in some bubble, you do you. But it's a nonsensical conspiracy theory and a mad one at that.

Mutations of coronaviruses are minor, won't affect the vaccine. Too much scaremongering out there. Not convinced these measures are suppressing the virus. Had restrictions for nearly 10months now and the virus is still going well!

 

[northernchris]

Some more thoughts from me on when I think the national lockdown, tiered system and other restrictions may end.

Well when we were in the Tiered system just before this ridiculous national lockdown was announced, Johnson did say the Tiered system had a "sunset" of 3rd February, and there would be a vote in parliament on 27th January on whether it should continue beyond that date. By then I was expecting the healthcare and deaths starts to really be heading south, as a result of all these vaccinations kicking in. And thought it would the vote could be very close, unlike the previous votes on restrictions. But unfortunately as a result of this third(!!!) national lockdown, all this has gone out the window now!

So we now have this national lockdown again, and due to be reviewed on 15th February. By then surely surely surely the effects of all these vaccinations should really have kicked in by then, and the healthcare and deaths should be falling progressively week on week. But am maybe not quite so confident this would be the case by then, as in the meantime all the stats are unfortunately still going up. And maybe something or other might mess things up a bit(again!!), for instance the vaccination rollout not going quite as well as intended, or even a third strain of Coronavirus comes along. But hopefully things are much better by then, and upon the review date of 15th February the decision is made to end the national lockdown, though then returning(again!!) to the Tiered system. Though my gut feeling is that unfortunately come that day, Johnson and his cabinet will decide to extend the national lockdown for at least another 3 weeks, which would then take us into March!

But as we go into March, whether we're still in a national lockdown or back to the Tiered system again, as a result of all the millions of vaccinations that would have been administered by then, the healthcare and deaths should by then be pretty low. And a reminder that the legislation for the Coronavirus restrictions is due to expire on 31st March. So I guess around the 24th March there will be a vote in parliament as to whether the legislation for these restrictions should be extended beyond that date. If the healthcare and deaths stats are indeed very very low by then, then why an earth would the majority of MP's vote for the legislation to continue into April and beyond? That would be just insanity and madness of the highest level! We need to start the recovery from all this and the return of normal life! If indeed the legislation is not extended though, it seems the restrictions would still continue just slightly longer until Easter Sunday/4th April, and Easter Monday/5th April would be the day when all restrictions would be gone. Johnson has specifically mentioned this particular date a couple of times in his recent Downing Street press conferences.

So in summary, I think the national lockdown and/or the Tiered system could unfortunately continue into March. Which seems ages away at the moment. It's going to be long tough couple of months ahead of us. But come Easter Monday - exactly three calendar months away from now, I'm feeling fairly confident we should at long last finally be rid of these lockdowns and all these restrictions nonsense. I don't think this is all going to continue into May and beyond.

I wouldn't read much in to the daily infections, hospitalisations and deaths going up due to the time lag and the household mixing which would have occurred over Christmas. For the next 7-10 days there's probably going to be some very high numbers of daily infections before the lockdown effect kicks in, and then a further 7-10 days for this to start being reflected in the daily deaths, although I'm expecting the media to make a big deal of the high figures in the meantime

Realistically I would also expect the tier system to be around at Easter, and probably in to the summer although would hope most if not all areas would be at the lower end of the scale unless something unexpected happens. One thing which is looking positive though is by July last year the restrictions were being rolled back, so by locking down earlier, and with a vaccine being rolled out, we should be in a much better position sooner than summer

 

[hwl]

The one thing I will highlight is that there's likely to be quite a few who are high risk who can't have the vaccine and so there's a need for as many of us to have the vaccine once offered even if deaths have been zero for several weeks by the time it's our turn.

As of we don't then ask it would take is for a case to be brought in form elsewhere and we could have localised outbreaks (most likely centered on areas where uptake was low) which could result in several deaths if it ends up infecting those unable to be vaccinated who are high risk.

Note this isn't saying that we need lockdowns until most of us have been vaccinated, as they should be able to be eased about Easter and as long as uptake of the vaccine continues any future restrictions on following winters are likely to be very limited in scale.

I suspect that future restrictions may include:
- testing upon return from high risk areas
- a slight nudge that WFH might be useful
- suggestions that if you're going to see an at risk person you limit your interesting before doing so

Along with other (probably all less than we did in the summer) minor changes, but mostly if there's high numbers of cases (so would likely to be regional in nature). However chances are by the following winter, then things would likely be even less restrictive (maybe limited guidance to those who are high risk). Especially if there was good progress on vaccinations worldwide.

Agreed. That number is about 1.5m but will get carefully whittled down. Then there are also the people for whom the vaccine isn't effective.

As regards lifting restrictions I suspect the size of large events will be restricted for a while (gradually stepping up) until they can get a large number of younger (18-50) people vaccinated.

There is no data of transmission reduction which could start to be very useful once 20-25% of the working age population are vaccinated.

The medium and longer term they won't want lot of the working population off with Covid and impacting the economy hence they will still be pushing vaccination once they have reached the more vulnerable.

 

[island]

Well we'll have to see what happens. But if all this does end up dragging into the summer until godknows when and still no definite end in sight, then that will be the real turning point I think. Many people of this country just won't be able to stand for all this nonsense any longer, and there could well be frequent civil unrest up and down the country.

This forum has been predicting imminent civil unrest for months.

 

[Class 317]

This runs counter to what Boris said in last nights briefing but anyhow I feel that as vaccination brings immunisation to the populace they will progressively gain confidence but we still don't know how well this will work so the last thing we need is people running around prematurely so no bad thing. That said we do have a path to some sort of normality this spring/summer but we will need caution going into this Autumn but by 2022 full immunisation should be achieved.
The govt should show us the plan however imperfect it is and how well we are doing against the goal and then people will have a reason to keep the faith and follow the rules.

BJ did say mid march last night but in his usual unclear way. Vaccines by 15th Feb plus 2 weeks for the immunity and another couple for hospital admissions to drop. Just wish for once he would say it like it is!

 

[Yew]

BJ did say mid march last night but in his usual unclear way. Vaccines by 15th Feb plus 2 weeks for the immunity and another couple for hospital admissions to drop. Just wish for once he would say it like it is!

Boris can hide behind 'the' science though, and not lose to much politically as 'the scientists said we have to'.

 

[bramling]

Well we'll have to see what happens. But if all this does end up dragging into the summer until godknows when and still no definite end in sight, then that will be the real turning point I think. Many people of this country just won't be able to stand for all this nonsense any longer, and there could well be frequent civil unrest up and down the country.

That said, I'm still feeling pretty positive that this will be over by Easter Monday. And that's what's keeping me going.

People won’t stand for it. It’s already been going on since November to a greater or lesser extent depending on location, and of course longer than that for the “local lockdowns” which preceded that.

The only thing holding the lid on at present is the miserable weather, with many no doubt taking the view “there’s not a lot I could be doing at the moment anyway”.

Once the shoots of spring arrive that’s going to change very quickly.

 

[takno]

Agreed. That number is about 1.5m but will get carefully whittled down. Then there are also the people for whom the vaccine isn't effective.

As regards lifting restrictions I suspect the size of large events will be restricted for a while (gradually stepping up) until they can get a large number of younger (18-50) people vaccinated.

There is no data of transmission reduction which could start to be very useful once 20-25% of the working age population are vaccinated.

The medium and longer term they won't want lot of the working population off with Covid and impacting the economy hence they will still be pushing vaccination once they have reached the more vulnerable.

It seems overwhelmingly likely that at least that proportion of the working population have had it by now, and probably rather more will have had it by the time they are being vaccinated. Why would conferring immunity on a small proportion more of them make an interesting difference to anything?

 

[The Ham]

It seems overwhelmingly likely that at least that proportion of the working population have had it by now, and probably rather more will have had it by the time they are being vaccinated. Why would conferring immunity on a small proportion more of them make an interesting difference to anything?

Confirmed total cases at about 5% of total population, even at a infection to death rate of 0.3% (and using the figures of those who have died within 28 days of a positive test) puts the figure at a little over 1/3 (which has taken a year to get to) add in the free vaccines given to date and we might be at 2/5.

If we really want to be clear of the vast majority of restrictions then we'd need at least 2/3rds to have had the virus or to have vaccinated.

That requires (assuming that we vaccinate everyone just to be sure) about 45 million to be protected (ideally all by the vaccine). However even without giving the vaccine to those who've treated positive that's still going to be a further 5.4 million confirmed cases (90 days at 60,000 a day) and a further 15 million vaccinated.

However 5.4 million cases would be 16,200 deaths assuming 0.3% of confirmed cases die (90 days at 500/day would be 45,000) which highlights why it's doubtful that the death rate could be that low (500 dying from 60,000 confirmed cases would be 0.8% of confirmed cases, only we've only just got to 60,000 cases and we've seen 500 deaths for those testing positive from about a month ago). As that would imply that the death: infection rate was either higher (at least when compared to the number of confirmed cases) or we're missing a LOT of cases (45,000 deaths over the next 90 days would imply 15,000,000 cases, so about 2/3rds of all cases being missed, even with significant testing).

The higher we can get the take-up then the less at risk we are of seeing a strong comeback of the virus next winter.

 

[takno]

Confirmed total cases at about 5% of total population, even at a infection to death rate of 0.3% (and using the figures of those who have died within 28 days of a positive test) puts the figure at a little over 1/3 (which has taken a year to get to) add in the free vaccines given to date and we might be at 2/5.

If we really want to be clear of the vast majority of restrictions then we'd need at least 2/3rds to have had the virus or to have vaccinated.

That requires (assuming that we vaccinate everyone just to be sure) about 45 million to be protected (ideally all by the vaccine). However even without giving the vaccine to those who've treated positive that's still going to be a further 5.4 million confirmed cases (90 days at 60,000 a day) and a further 15 million vaccinated.

However 5.4 million cases would be 16,200 deaths assuming 0.3% of confirmed cases die (90 days at 500/day would be 45,000) which highlights why it's doubtful that the death rate could be that low (500 dying from 60,000 confirmed cases would be 0.8% of confirmed cases, only we've only just got to 60,000 cases and we've seen 500 deaths for those testing positive from about a month ago). As that would imply that the death: infection rate was either higher (at least when compared to the number of confirmed cases) or we're missing a LOT of cases (45,000 deaths over the next 90 days would imply 15,000,000 cases, so about 2/3rds of all cases being missed, even with significant testing).

The higher we can get the take-up then the less at risk we are of seeing a strong comeback of the virus next winter.

I have no objection to a high take-up of the vaccine. It's just fanciful to suggest that we need to or should wait for any take-up from low-vulnerability groups before removing all restrictions.

I've never seen an ONS prevalence figure that wasn't at least twice the number of positive tests, so it's completely believable that we are missing 65% of cases.

The 0.3% figure may well also be on the high side, since it's from international figures. Whatever anybody thinks of our test and trace system we are testing more people and doing more systematic prevalence surveys than almost anywhere else in the world, so it's possible that the 0.3% depends on a very substantial underestimate of global cases.

 

[brad465]

This forum has been predicting imminent civil unrest for months.

In June there was some civil unrest, but not for Covid reasons as we know. I mention that example as it was during a favourable time of year weather wise, where arguably last summer the easing of restrictions combined with the fact this situation hadn't been going on very long at that point will have reduced the unrest prospect. Anti-covid protests have still happened in recent months (and New Year's eve there was that admittingly insensitive one outside a London hospital), but generally of a small scale and don't quite meet the definition of civil unrest.

I expect there will be unrest, but it will only come when weather is conducive for it in combination with loss of financial support and/or restrictions still being in place despite low infections and a vaccine rollout. If restrictions are in place this summer that are deemed unacceptable relative to the situation at the time, it's entirely possible unrest will happen then, and/or it maybe when unemployment level peaks (whether this year or further down the line), which was a factor in riots in the 1980s. Yes we can't put a date on unrest, but given the massive upheavals in society it would be naïve not to expect it eventually.

 

[The Ham]

I have no objection to a high take-up of the vaccine. It's just fanciful to suggest that we need to or should wait for any take-up from low-vulnerability groups before removing all restrictions.

Indeed and "the science" should agree with that, as the number getting very ill (let alone dying) should start to fall fairly quickly after the end of February.

I've never seen an ONS prevalence figure that wasn't at least twice the number of positive tests, so it's completely believable that we are missing 65% of cases.

The 0.3% figure may well also be on the high side, since it's from international figures. Whatever anybody thinks of our test and trace system we are testing more people and doing more systematic prevalence surveys than almost anywhere else in the world, so it's possible that the 0.3% depends on a very substantial underestimate of global cases.

It's likely to be difficult to know for certain the exact figure. However it's certainly not 0.1% (at otherwise we'd have already past 70% having had the virus and so numbers of cases would start to have come down.

Even 0.15% is getting on for that figure, whilst 0.2% would be hitting that figure around the early part of February.

Anyway, with a above average percentage of the population being over 75 (amongst other factors like less healthy and better healthcare ensuring more with underlying heath conditions live well into adulthood) then it could be argued that our death rate would be higher than the global average

 

[hst43102]

If I had a pound.......

When lockdown one happened people on here predicted civil unrest within a month. When masks were mandated civil unrest was predicted. When the tier system was introduced people predicted civil unrest. Lockdown two? You guessed it, civil unrest and here we are again.

I'm not saying it's never going to happen but I still think it's unlikely purely based on how the restrictions have played out with many people still just going about their business. If restrictions ever came to the point of people being forced to stay indoors with a massive police or army presence actively monitoring people leaving their houses then maybe it would be triggered.

If these draconian restrictions carry on past Easter I will strongly consider joining any protests, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Noted that the legislation for the lockdown has been published. Unhelpfully it is just an amendment to the Tier regulations and puts all England into Tier 4, so is just a couple of pages of "amend this and amend that" making it impossible to read.

However what you can see is that the expiry date of the regulations has been extended to the 31st March.

So, as it stands, the current lockdown is in place until the 31st March unless the legislation is subsequently amended.

 

[MattA7]

Noted that the legislation for the lockdown has been published. Unhelpfully it is just an amendment to the Tier regulations and puts all England into Tier 4, so is just a couple of pages of "amend this and amend that" making it impossible to read.

However what you can see is that the expiry date of the regulations has been extended to the 31st March.

So, as it stands, the current lockdown is in place until the 31st March unless the legislation is subsequently amended.

Very disappointing (but not surprising) although that will be England- I live in Scotland as we all know Scotland’s supreme leader is worse than Borris so I dread to think about the next few months.

 

[Freightmaster]

2) Suppress the virus to reduce mutations. More people that are mutated, the more potential for mutations which could make any vaccine null and void.

I don't like the sound of that!

(28 Days Later movie poster)







MARK

 

[43096]

I wouldn't read much in to the daily infections, hospitalisations and deaths going up due to the time lag and the household mixing which would have occurred over Christmas. For the next 7-10 days there's probably going to be some very high numbers of daily infections before the lockdown effect kicks in, and then a further 7-10 days for this to start being reflected in the daily deaths, although I'm expecting the media to make a big deal of the high figures in the meantime

Realistically I would also expect the tier system to be around at Easter, and probably in to the summer although would hope most if not all areas would be at the lower end of the scale unless something unexpected happens. One thing which is looking positive though is by July last year the restrictions were being rolled back, so by locking down earlier, and with a vaccine being rolled out, we should be in a much better position sooner than summer

The BBC was up to its usual scare tactics yesterday, shouting about the record 60,000 positive daily tests. Well, yes, but as mass testing was not available in wave 1, it’s an utterly irresponsible and irrelevant use of statistics.