When will restrictions finally end?

[Nicholas Lewis]

Now that is pessimistic.

It is but better to cautious as one could say that part of our current problems has been due to relaxing too fast and being too slow to react when transmission rates increased. So they should be open that we will need a rapid response system this autumn as we effectively in a grand experiment for the next 12 months.

 

[bb21]

Now that is pessimistic.

Having seen the LTP plans for the next few timetable cycles, I would not bet against that being close to the government's outlook. Perhaps if the winter restrictions show encouraging early signs, it may not last the whole winter, or at all if admission rates are low, but restrictions same time next year really isn't that far fetched an idea. We might see some relaxation in the summer, yes, but tightening up again come October time may be sold as a "precautionary" step.

Even the government now must know nothing it does is going to make much difference (some difference possibly but unlikely to be much). I can't envisage any magic tricks up its sleeves, so we are pretty much relying on the vaccines to see us through.

Expect no sustainable return to something resembling normality until at least end of this calendar year. Scaremongering moi?

But then again if Boris went during 2021...

 

[Philip]

I think a review in March/April time is possible. I doubt they'll change anything then, and given that it took until May/June last year for them to open up, I'd suggest it's likely that we will be in full lockdown until May/June, with a brief period of relaxation over the summer then a real hard crackdown in September. I think they'll argue that they won't know the vaccine's effectiveness until we've gone through a winter with all the vulnerable people vaccinated. So I'm going to guess April/May 2022 for as close to normality as we will ever see again. Alongside all this there'll be plenty of scaremongering surrounding so-called 'long Covid' and scary new mutations which they'll use to beat us over the head with at regular intervals.

No. Providing the vaccination programme stays on target then we'll see most areas down to tiers 2 or 3 by March. If things are going well then hopefully the rapid progress in vaccination along with surpression of case numbers as a result of lockdown, and maybe milder weather, will see hospital admissions and numbers at a low enough point for most of the country to be no higher than tier 2. I would think the whole country will be down to tier 1 by April and then scrapping of the tier system by May.

 

[Gadget88]

Restrictions next winter according to Sky News shocking if true

 

[6862]

No. Providing the vaccination programme stays on target then we'll see most areas down to tiers 2 or 3 by March. If things are going well then hopefully the rapid progress in vaccination along with surpression of case numbers as a result of lockdown, and maybe milder weather, will see hospital admissions and numbers at a low enough point for most of the country to be no higher than tier 2. I would think the whole country will be down to tier 1 by April and then scrapping of the tier system by May.

Whitty just said we could see restrictions next winter. Given that anything that awful man says generally gets imposed on us sooner or later, I think you might want to reconsider being so certain that we won't be back in lockdown next winter.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Restrictions next winter according to Sky News shocking if true

I knew the media would be all over that. Chris Whitty said "some" restrictions *may* need to be reintroduced next Winter. Unfortunately the camera was on his face at the time and not Johnson's - I would have liked to have seen his expression when he said that!

 

[HSTEd]

Chris Whitty said "some" restrictions *may* need to be reintroduced next Winter.

Which actually means "I want restrictions and I will do whatever is necessary to ensure I obtain them"

 

[6862]

Which actually means "I want restrictions and I will do whatever is necessary to ensure I obtain them"

Yes, this is unfortunately very true.

 

[Philip]

Whitty just said we could see restrictions next winter. Given that anything that awful man says generally gets imposed on us sooner or later, I think you might want to reconsider being so certain that we won't be back in lockdown next winter.

I didn't mention next winter. What happens next winter depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine and for how long it provides immunity, and if needed the efficiency of the second vaccine programme - hopefully it'll have the efficiency of the flu vaccine if it needs to be given every year.

I'm talking about the next few months.

 

[6862]

I didn't mention next winter. What happens next winter depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine and for how long it provides immunity, and if needed the efficiency of the second vaccine programme - hopefully it'll have the efficiency of the flu vaccine if it needs to be given every year.

I'm talking about the next few months.

Sorry for misunderstanding you, I thought you were disagreeing with the entirety of my original post.

 

[Domh245]

The other thing that I'm finding quite alarming beyond Whitty's revelation today, is the number of people who are trying to claim the summer of 2020 was "near normal". So not only will we seemingly be locked down every winter, but the summers will be heavily restricted too and we'll be happy for it :/

 

[duncanp]

Yes, this is unfortunately very true.

But by next winter it is likely that we will have a new Prime Minister.

Hopefully the new person will be someone who realises that there is no such thing as "the science", is not so easily lead, can question the need for restrictions, demand data to back up projections and question the assumptions used in dodgy so called "modelling".

I would like to think that he or she will also consider the political and economic aspect of any decision making.

Whilst it may be advisable to do something from an epidemiological point of view, it may be that the economic consequences are too great.

I really don't think there is any pubic appetite for being locked down every winter just to "protect the NHS". To be honest, if we need to do this, then the NHS isn't worth protecting, and it needs to be broken up into smaller regional organisations, as happens in most of Western Europe.

 

[hst43102]

The other thing that I'm finding quite alarming beyond Whitty's revelation today, is the number of people who are trying to claim the summer of 2020 was "near normal". So not only will we seemingly be locked down every winter, but the summers will be heavily restricted too and we'll be happy for it :/

Spot on. I thought I was the only one who noticed that!

 

[Philip]

Sorry for misunderstanding you, I thought you were disagreeing with the entirety of my original post.

No problem. Johnson has just said that with certain provisions met, it might be possible to come out of lockdown in mid February, pretty much echoing what I've posted above.

 

[Gadget88]

The other thing that I'm finding quite alarming beyond Whitty's revelation today, is the number of people who are trying to claim the summer of 2020 was "near normal". So not only will we seemingly be locked down every winter, but the summers will be heavily restricted too and we'll be happy for it :/

What do you want expect people comply my partner works in retail and shop had 20 customers today. Without an election for 4 years the Tory’s have a free pass to close everything down

 

[greyman42]

I think that what is going on in other European countries will carry some weight regarding lifting restrictions.

 

[brad465]

I think a review in March/April time is possible. I doubt they'll change anything then, and given that it took until May/June last year for them to open up, I'd suggest it's likely that we will be in full lockdown until May/June, with a brief period of relaxation over the summer then a real hard crackdown in September. I think they'll argue that they won't know the vaccine's effectiveness until we've gone through a winter with all the vulnerable people vaccinated. So I'm going to guess April/May 2022 for as close to normality as we will ever see again. Alongside all this there'll be plenty of scaremongering surrounding so-called 'long Covid' and scary new mutations which they'll use to beat us over the head with at regular intervals.

I base it on the government's track record of keeping the goalposts moving, such we are always about 6 months from 'normality'. Remember normality by November (they told us that in early summer)? Then normality by Easter (that came out in late November/early December I think). So based on that, the earliest we can expect to see anything change is early summer. And about next winter, do you really think they're going to trust the vaccine to last for a long time, after they have spent so much time telling us that it might not stop transmission and might not last very long?

Personally, I think they should rapidly remove restrictions ASAP. I hope I'm wrong about all of the above. But we're in a classic case of the sunk cost fallacy and such a situation only goes one way.

If that happens, society as we know it will literally die: I cannot imagine a situation where mass suicides, cancer deaths, addiction deaths, etc. will not happen in response, as well as mass poverty problems and all the problems that come with that. I wouldn't be surprised if I suddenly found myself grieving the loss of multiple friends/relatives in the space of a few weeks in such a scenario. Furthermore while they might be able to get away with that hypothesis through to April, once the weather becomes conducive for rioting it will happen: most likely in the summer but if we get a sunny warm spring like last year, even if for only a shorter period of time, we may see unrest/rioting earlier than that.

 

[bramling]

If that happens, society as we know it will literally die: I cannot imagine a situation where mass suicides, cancer deaths, addiction deaths, etc. will not happen in response, as well as mass poverty problems and all the problems that come with that. I wouldn't be surprised if I suddenly found myself grieving the loss of multiple friends/relatives in the space of a few weeks in such a scenario. Furthermore while they might be able to get away with that hypothesis through to April, once the weather becomes conducive for rioting it will happen: most likely in the summer but if we get a sunny warm spring like last year, even if for only a shorter period of time, we may see unrest/rioting earlier than that.

They won't get away with it past March/April time. For pretty much everyone I speak to, that's a watershed time. It certainly is for me.

 

[yorksrob]

I base it on the government's track record of keeping the goalposts moving, such we are always about 6 months from 'normality'. Remember normality by November (they told us that in early summer)? Then normality by Easter (that came out in late November/early December I think). So based on that, the earliest we can expect to see anything change is early summer. And about next winter, do you really think they're going to trust the vaccine to last for a long time, after they have spent so much time telling us that it might not stop transmission and might not last very long?

Personally, I think they should rapidly remove restrictions ASAP. I hope I'm wrong about all of the above. But we're in a classic case of the sunk cost fallacy and such a situation only goes one way.

I hope so too.

It is but better to cautious as one could say that part of our current problems has been due to relaxing too fast and being too slow to react when transmission rates increased. So they should be open that we will need a rapid response system this autumn as we effectively in a grand experiment for the next 12 months.

I would dispute that we opened up too quickly. We were going quite slow and steady all the way through until August. I think it was perhaps towards the end of that period when they perhaps did too many things at the same time.

Having seen the LTP plans for the next few timetable cycles, I would not bet against that being close to the government's outlook. Perhaps if the winter restrictions show encouraging early signs, it may not last the whole winter, or at all if admission rates are low, but restrictions same time next year really isn't that far fetched an idea. We might see some relaxation in the summer, yes, but tightening up again come October time may be sold as a "precautionary" step.

Even the government now must know nothing it does is going to make much difference (some difference possibly but unlikely to be much). I can't envisage any magic tricks up its sleeves, so we are pretty much relying on the vaccines to see us through.

Expect no sustainable return to something resembling normality until at least end of this calendar year. Scaremongering moi?

But then again if Boris went during 2021...

I think there will be real resistance.

Whitty just said we could see restrictions next winter. Given that anything that awful man says generally gets imposed on us sooner or later, I think you might want to reconsider being so certain that we won't be back in lockdown next winter.

If Whitty wasn't a liability before, he is now. Time for early retirement I think.

 

[brad465]

They won't get away with it past March/April time. For pretty much everyone I speak to, that's a watershed time. It certainly is for me.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's also the watershed time for much of the Tory party who could depose Johnson as well.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Did anyone else note Whitty laying the ground for society need to just accept that people die?

At least once he said that Covid isn't going to go away and society, led by politicians, need to decide sooner rather than later, what an acceptable level of risk and death is. He referred to Flu and said that between 7000 and 20000 die each year, which society accepts. He said we need to do the same with Covid. He firmly passed the buck back to politicians for leading that discussion and deciding what the level of risk is.

I think he is correct. This needs to happen very quickly. Because once society accepts that all death cannot be eliminated and there will always be people dieing of Covid, the quicker we can lift the current restrictions.

 

[philosopher]

I think a review in March/April time is possible. I doubt they'll change anything then, and given that it took until May/June last year for them to open up, I'd suggest it's likely that we will be in full lockdown until May/June, with a brief period of relaxation over the summer then a real hard crackdown in September. I think they'll argue that they won't know the vaccine's effectiveness until we've gone through a winter with all the vulnerable people vaccinated. So I'm going to guess April/May 2022 for as close to normality as we will ever see again. Alongside all this there'll be plenty of scaremongering surrounding so-called 'long Covid' and scary new mutations which they'll use to beat us over the head with at regular intervals.

If that prediction comes to fruition I will seriously consider emigrating to somewhere where life is somewhat normal.

 

[Mag_seven]

So I'm going to guess April/May 2022 for as close to normality as we will ever see again.

No chance - as far as I am concerned its no later than summer this year. We cannot deprive our young of yet another year of their lives when they should be out enjoying themselves. The vaccine is here, it is being administered. The lockdown brigade wanted us to "lock down until there is a vaccine" - well the vaccine is here now so its goodbye to lockdown.

 

[brad465]

Did anyone else note Whitty laying the ground for society need to just accept that people die?

At least once he said that Covid isn't going to go away and society, led by politicians, need to decide sooner rather than later, what an acceptable level of risk and death is. He referred to Flu and said that between 7000 and 20000 die each year, which society accepts. He said we need to do the same with Covid. He firmly passed the buck back to politicians for leading that discussion and deciding what the level of risk is.

I think he is correct. This needs to happen very quickly. Because once society accepts that all death cannot be eliminated and there will always be people dieing of Covid, the quicker we can lift the current restrictions.

I agree, this came up in part in the following thread about the concept of human exceptionalism:

Could Covid-19 end 'human exceptionalism'?

Also know more formally as "anthropocentrism", I strongly believe (and other posts in other threads suggest similar views are shared here), that our response to Covid is human exceptionalism at its worst; the general definition is the argument humans are the most important entity, but arguably...

www.railforums.co.uk

I do wonder if in part he is saying that to try and pass off at least some responsibility for the fallout from this situation by claiming he eventually came to terms and tried to turn things around.

 

[takno]

I agree, this came up in part in the following thread about the concept of human exceptionalism:

Could Covid-19 end 'human exceptionalism'?

Also know more formally as "anthropocentrism", I strongly believe (and other posts in other threads suggest similar views are shared here), that our response to Covid is human exceptionalism at its worst; the general definition is the argument humans are the most important entity, but arguably...

www.railforums.co.uk

I do wonder if in part he is saying that to try and pass off at least some responsibility for the fallout from this situation by claiming he eventually came to terms and tried to turn things around.

I think he's always been genuinely mostly focused on stopping the NHS becoming overwhelmed. He may have been willing to stand behind improbable graphs and unacceptable limitations to achieve that, but it's quite possible that he's only gone along with elimination chat and the no-wrinkly-left-behind policy in order to achieve that aim. He's coming up for retirement anyway -I doubt he wants to live out the rest of his life in some kind of doctor-led dystopia any more than the rest of us

 

[LittleAH]

Which actually means "I want restrictions and I will do whatever is necessary to ensure I obtain them"

No it doesn't and this kind attitude is infuriating. Whitty and Vallance are experts in their field and know a hell of a lot more than every Tom, Dick or Harry on here. Maybe if the government had listened to them rather then dithering on every decision throughout, we wouldn't be in this position.

Whitty and Vallance are trying to be realisitic unlike the blond haired buffoon, promising normality at every next public holiday. It's been fairly obvious for a while that A) Covid is here to stay in some capacity and B) The world will be facing restrictions for the short and medium term as we come to deal with this. People need to face up to the fact that until we're all vaccinated then life won't return to any kind of normal within the UK and also, that when that day happens - that foreign travel will be completely different to the way it's been for the best part of 50 years.

 

[HSTEd]

No it doesn't and this kind attitude is infuriating. Whitty and Vallance are experts in their field and know a hell of a lot more than every Tom, Dick or Harry on here.

Scientists, especially senior scientists, are not inhuman drones that slavishly and without question follow the absolute scientific method.
They are people with prejudices caused by experiences, worldview and position in life, just like everyone else.

It is quite possible for two reasoned scientists to examine data and come to opposite conclusions.

Maybe if the government had listened to them rather then dithering on every decision throughout, we wouldn't be in this position.

We would still be stuck in an endless series of lockdowns, because thats what SAGE signed us up for.
Even the originaL Ferguson study admitted this.

 

[hwl]

The lockdown brigade wanted us to "lock down until there is a vaccine" - well the vaccine is here now so its goodbye to lockdown.

But it actually needs quite a large number of people vaccinated, just having a vaccine available isn't enough if you don't actually use it!

In term of vaccinating as many adults want it (and with both jabs in a slightly in a longer time frame) it will take into autumn hence a bit of nervousness on their part about autumn being close to winter!

The reality is that restrictions will be lifted bit by bit in response to deaths/ hospitalisations/cases dropping and warmer weather will also help.

The really is that they want to leave some wriggle room in case covid throws us a few more surprises.

Boris always over promises and under delivers!

 

[yorksrob]

Did anyone else note Whitty laying the ground for society need to just accept that people die?

At least once he said that Covid isn't going to go away and society, led by politicians, need to decide sooner rather than later, what an acceptable level of risk and death is. He referred to Flu and said that between 7000 and 20000 die each year, which society accepts. He said we need to do the same with Covid. He firmly passed the buck back to politicians for leading that discussion and deciding what the level of risk is.

I think he is correct. This needs to happen very quickly. Because once society accepts that all death cannot be eliminated and there will always be people dieing of Covid, the quicker we can lift the current restrictions.

If he did say that, then he does make an important point.

I think that people are very much going along with these restrictions whilst the vulnerable (particularly thinking of their parents and grandparents) get the vaccine. Once this has been done, the landscape will be very different and a large proportion of the population will feel the need to move on. If we're still stuck with the main parties proposing oppressive restrictions and lockdowns at that stage, I think they may end up challenged by a new political party that will make big inroads.

 

[bb21]

If he did say that, then he does make an important point.

I think that people are very much going along with these restrictions whilst the vulnerable (particularly thinking of their parents and grandparents) get the vaccine. Once this has been done, the landscape will be very different and a large proportion of the population will feel the need to move on. If we're still stuck with the main parties proposing oppressive restrictions and lockdowns at that stage, I think they may end up challenged by a new political party that will make big inroads.

Enter Nigel Farage.

You are not making this any easier.