When will restrictions finally end?

[bramling]

Hmm - I was in a restaurant in Oxford a month or so back and overheard one of the waitresses saying she “couldn’t wait for the next lockdown”. I think you may underestimate how many people are benefiting from furlough and lockdown in various ways, even with the 80% hit.

Then there are many of my office-based colleagues who, while not furloughed, love working from home during Covid (which has been the case since March, in the company I work for), don’t do the sorts of things lockdowns forcibly restrict anyway (like shopping / restaurants / events), and who can ignore rules about socialising and other gatherings - and who are therefore of the view that measures should continue as long as possible as they directly benefit from them.

Yes I think the work from homes are a *big* driver of all this - they're loving it, especially those with a house/garden/family setup. I definitely sense some of the furloughs are starting to tire of it. Someone whose furlough is a second income may relish it, but for those whom it's the sole income it must really be starting to bite now. Of course there are presumably some companies who are topping up the 80%.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

Very true indeed. Some people just don't realise the importance of people going out there and doing stuff. It's an eye opener really.

It's no different to the "I'm not leaving my house until I'm vaccinated" mentality. As I said elsewhere, if everyone took that line then there'd be no vaccine, along with no quite a few other things. I can't see such people living indefinitely on their cabbage patch!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

It'll inevitably be a khan win. He may be absolutely useless and the city very much not in a good way, but given the calibre (or lack thereof) of the main candidate running against him it's difficult to see him losing.

I just wish they'd abolish the London mayor post completely. What is it now actually achieving?

 

[brad465]

Until she realises that she doesn't have a job as restaurant now gone to the wall or needs fewer staff.
The furlough money will run out.

Can the Treasury actually turn to the Chancellor and say "no more" to offering money to pay for furlough like has been the case? The multiple extensions Sunak's been allowed to make are worrying in the sense that it creates this attitude we can keep this lifestyle going for a long time yet. If Sunak however was unable to extend it further, regardless of what's going on with the virus, it will knock people's senses.

 

[bramling]

Can the Treasury actually turn to the Chancellor and say "no more" to offering money to pay for furlough like has been the case? The multiple extensions Sunak's been allowed to make are worrying in the sense that it creates this attitude we can keep this lifestyle going for a long time yet. If Sunak however was unable to extend it further, regardless of what's going on with the virus, it will knock people's senses.

I get the feeling Sunak himself is lukewarm at best regarding the extensions, it's clear he'd probably prefer less lockdown. But equally he wants to continue to be Mr Popular, and we all know why that is. He's even devised his own logo!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Another factor to consider is that there will be local and national elections in the first week of May.

If we still have significant restrictions by then, with no hope of any easing on the horizon, then the established parties are going to get a kicking at the ballot box.

Whilst I don’t disagree, the trouble is... who do we vote for, to protest?
Both Labour & Tories are as bad as each other when it comes to the restrictions

 

[Ec91109]

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:







And a personal favourite of mine

Goodness me what a bunch of wet wipes....

 

[NorthKent1989]

It'll inevitably be a khan win. He may be absolutely useless and the city very much not in a good way, but given the calibre (or lack thereof) of the main candidate running against him it's difficult to see him losing.

I fear you’re right, Khan has been a disaster for London, especially with his flip flopping over covid? One minute he wants further lockdowns and the next he’s saying we should support the high street, bit hard to do that when everything is shut tight.

When Khan does win it’ll be a disaster for London, and that’s why I plan on getting out by the end of next year with any luck.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

Whilst I don’t disagree, the trouble is... who do we vote for, to protest?
Both Labour & Tories are as bad as each other when it comes to the restrictions

All this has done is given Farage a new battle ground, he’ll appeal to the dissatisfied working classes and the suburban/rural upper and middle classes, his party; Reform U.K. (formerly Brexit party) won’t be going anywhere any time soon, Labour will only do well in cities like London, Bristol, Manchester etc, the Tories will still have their die hards but ultimately Farage will continue to be a thorn in the mainstream parties side for years to come.

I think While Reform U.K. will never get enough of a majority, They will team up with other similar parties and form a coalition.

 

[route101]

Hopefully by end of Spring so we can enjoy the summer. I think large events such as festivals will be limited in numbers.

There's a few who on social media were saying that staying at home is what they usually do so not really any change to them.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

When is the budget due? Early or late March?
Taxes will surely have to go up, and maybe if it coincides with some unseasonably warm weather, people will start ignoring the restrictions (at worst) and maybe join the protests if enough of the people at most risk have by then been vaccinated?

 

[C J Snarzell]

I'm actually astounded about the level of ignorance out there about how the economy works. Many people seem to think that we can keep furloughing for "as long as it takes" and after its finished there will be no impact on the nations finances and the economy will still be the same as it was when we went into this. Some people are in for an almighty shock in the next few months.

Absolutely. Furlough is presently in place until the end of April and Rishi Sunak has stated a couple of times it cannot continue long term.

I am hoping that furlough will not continue beyond April because to stop it means the government has to reopen the economy, which more importantly means restrictions have to be loosened and most of us can get on with our lives again.

CJ

 

[bramling]

Absolutely. Furlough is presently in place until the end of April and Rishi Sunak has stated a couple of times it cannot continue long term.

I am hoping that furlough will not continue beyond April because to stop it means the government has to reopen the economy, which more importantly means restrictions have to be loosened and most of us can get on with our lives again.

CJ

"Cannot continue long term" isn't really compatible with it having gone on for over a year...

 

[Yew]

I'm actually astounded about the level of ignorance out there about how the economy works. Many people seem to think that we can keep furloughing for "as long as it takes" and after its finished there will be no impact on the nations finances and the economy will still be the same as it was when we went into this. Some people are in for an almighty shock in the next few months.

Indeed, there is a view that the economy is "the profits of billionaires and the capitalist classes" when actually the economy is "jobs and prosperity for you and me".

 

[mawallace]

When is the budget due? Early or late March?
Taxes will surely have to go up, and maybe if it coincides with some unseasonably warm weather, people will start ignoring the restrictions (at worst) and maybe join the protests if enough of the people at most risk have by then been vaccinated?

Next Budget will be on 3 March 2021. Mind you the last one was cancelled at day's notice.

As an tax advisor I suspect that it will be too soon for tax rises from 6 April 2021 - my guess will be that taxes will go up from 2022/23 onwards. Re repayment - War Stock can be still be bought and sold - so it's not given that the borrowings will be repaid - my guess it will be - repay the interest and hand it onto the next government to sort out! Interest rates are at a record low - so borrowing is cheap - my concern is what happens when they start going up again.

Any tax rises are likely to be hidden - scraping releifs or 'playing' around the edges. There has already been two reports in the last 12 months from the Office of Tax Simplification saying how the Capital Gains tax system is too complicated, and that Inheritance Tax rules need to be simplified. Reading the reports exchange the word 'simplified' for 'tax increase'!

 

[hwl]

That is true. But I think it's likely that there will be some effect in the over 75's and that in itself will bring cases down. It should at least allow the most disruptive measures to be scrapped and go back to the July situation where people were, for the most part, able to get on with their lives.

Agreed, plenty of uncertainty though hence I worried people may be getting their hopes up for a speedier resolution than will actually occur.

 

[brad465]

I get the feeling Sunak himself is lukewarm at best regarding the extensions, it's clear he'd probably prefer less lockdown. But equally he wants to continue to be Mr Popular, and we all know why that is. He's even devised his own logo!

Given all the speculation about Johnson's expected departure time of this spring (or even late winter if it's really bad for him), if that comes to fruition, Sunak won't have to hold out much longer. It might actually be beneficial for him to end furlough just as a leadership challenge begins, so that he can try and appeal both to those getting wary of its duration and those supporting furlough by claiming it achieved its goals (I say furlough would have to end around the time of the challenge because the inevitable unemployment rise to follow will still be a few months down the line).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

All this has done is given Farage a new battle ground, he’ll appeal to the dissatisfied working classes and the suburban/rural upper and middle classes, his party; Reform U.K. (formerly Brexit party) won’t be going anywhere any time soon, Labour will only do well in cities like London, Bristol, Manchester etc, the Tories will still have their die hards but ultimately Farage will continue to be a thorn in the mainstream parties side for years to come.

I think While Reform U.K. will never get enough of a majority, They will team up with other similar parties and form a coalition.

What similar parties? The only other parties of similar alignment are the Tories and the DUP: the latter is already too small and limited to one part of the Union to be of use, while if past behaviour of the Tory party is anything to go by, they'll try and coerce Farage into standing down key candidates, or in the case of the local elections coming up, if he's doing well in polling/visible perceptions and there are still restrictions in place that Farage is actively demanding are removed, the Tories will likely cave in and lift them just like Cameron caved into an EU referendum.

 

[Class 33]

Hopefully by end of Spring so we can enjoy the summer. I think large events such as festivals will be limited in numbers.

There's a few who on social media were saying that staying at home is what they usually do so not really any change to them.

If social distancing is still required and capacity at festivals being severely limited, then for almost all festival organisers this will just be completely financially unviable for their festivals to go ahead! It's either no social distancing and festivals being able to accommodate their usual intended capacity, or not atall. And if many festivals have to cancel again this year, then I expect a fair number of them will not return again.

As mentioned Oliver Dowden said that he expects the events industry to be back to normal by Easter. Let's see if he turns out to be right on that. I and many many others are really hoping so.

 

[bramling]

Next Budget will be on 3 March 2021. Mind you the last one was cancelled at day's notice.

As an tax advisor I suspect that it will be too soon for tax rises from 6 April 2021 - my guess will be that taxes will go up from 2022/23 onwards. Re repayment - War Stock can be still be bought and sold - so it's not given that the borrowings will be repaid - my guess it will be - repay the interest and hand it onto the next government to sort out! Interest rates are at a record low - so borrowing is cheap - my concern is what happens when they start going up again.

Any tax rises are likely to be hidden - scraping releifs or 'playing' around the edges. There has already been two reports in the last 12 months from the Office of Tax Simplification saying how the Capital Gains tax system is too complicated, and that Inheritance Tax rules need to be simplified. Reading the reports exchange the word 'simplified' for 'tax increase'!

Inheritance tax is one they need to be very careful with. It was a big thing in Cameron's 2015 manifesto (remember this was the one which actually got them into power), and any dial back on the £1m figure will seriously alienate elements of their core vote. I'd think Sunak would be well aware of that representing a "true blue" constituency. Capital gains could land them in hot water too.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Whatever Sunak has up his sleeve for taxes he cannot impose anything that would affect the hospitality sector - businesses like pubs, restaurants, B&Bs, etc cannot take any further punishment.

CJ

 

[LAX54]

Clutching at straws there!


We must have significant normality by Easter. Anything else is simply not acceptable, and not affordable (financially, economically and for our fundamental wellbeing)

I think you are out of touch if you think heavy restrictions are possible after Easter. The public won't tolerate this for that long and the costs will keep rising.

That would be political suicide; young people are much more at risk from factors relating to the measures taken to reduce the spread, than the virus itself.

I predict significant (but not total) normality from Easter onwards.

Wash, Gel, Wash, Gel, everytime we touch anything, masks worn, don't touch this, don't go there, are we in danger of being so 'clean' we lay ourselves open to many other viruses that we would normally shrug off ?
Due to the immune system not having anything to fight and gain strength to fight off a virus ?

 

[Richard Scott]

Wash, Gel, Wash, Gel, everytime we touch anything, masks worn, don't touch this, don't go there, are we in danger of being so 'clean' we lay ourselves open to many other viruses that we would normally shrug off ?
Due to the immune system not having anything to fight and gain strength to fight off a virus ?

Exactly, which is why I don't. Nothing wrong with soap and water used sensibly and not incessant sanitising.

 

[DB]

Exactly, which is why I don't. Nothing wrong with soap and water used sensibly and not incessant sanitising.

Likewise.

I have also noticed a general decline in the obsessive sanitizing in the past few months though - far fewer people seem to do it when going into shop now.

 

[yorksrob]

I've never really understood the point of sanitizing when going into a shop. I tend to do so when I've touched something.

 

[theironroad]

Wash, Gel, Wash, Gel, everytime we touch anything, masks worn, don't touch this, don't go there, are we in danger of being so 'clean' we lay ourselves open to many other viruses that we would normally shrug off ?
Due to the immune system not having anything to fight and gain strength to fight off a virus ?

Exactly, which is why I don't. Nothing wrong with soap and water used sensibly and not incessant sanitising.

Likewise.

I have also noticed a general decline in the obsessive sanitizing in the past few months though - far fewer people seem to do it when going into shop now.

I've never really understood the point of sanitizing when going into a shop. I tend to do so when I've touched something.

Go back and check the initial government advice (based on the scientific advice at the time) and that was and is that regular hand washing with soap and water for 20 seconds on a regular basis is the primary method to prevent transmission from hands to face.

Use of sanitisers was a secondary method , where it was and isnt always possible to access hand washing facilities.

 

[yorksrob]

Go back and check the initial government advice (based on the scientific advice at the time) and that was and is that regular hand washing with soap and water for 20 seconds on a regular basis is the primary method to prevent transmission from hands to face.

Use of sanitisers was a secondary method , where it was and isnt always possible to access hand washing facilities.

We don't always have access to a sink, running water and paper towells everywhere unfortunately.

This is tantamount to the meaningless advice to "brush after every meal" (how many people bring a toothbrush into work, I wonder).

 

[theironroad]

We don't always have access to a sink, running water and paper towells everywhere unfortunately.

This is tantamount to the meaningless advice to "brush after every meal" (how many people bring a toothbrush into work, I wonder).

Which is why the use of sanitisers , whether static or carried in pocket form was recommended, hence secondary .

 

[Kite159]

In my eyes being furloughed this time of year will be harder than it would have been over the summer time.

Solely as the days are shorter, it's colder and weather not being as nice as it was during April - June time, which allowed for those furloughed to sit in a garden (if applicable), do gardening or other activities outside the house.

I believe Brading mentioned that the footpaths where he lives have turned into muddy messes due to the recent rain and increased usage, similar in this area. Any paths on grass or dirt tracks are very muddy (and in some cases nearly impassable without slipping over)

 

[kristiang85]

Whatever Sunak has up his sleeve for taxes he cannot impose anything that would affect the hospitality sector - businesses like pubs, restaurants, B&Bs, etc cannot take any further punishment.

CJ

I will also be very narked if my income taxes go up to fill the gap caused by the furlough scheme when I've not missed a day of work all year, and a lot of the people benefitting from the furlough scheme have been constantly putting the pressure on government to keep these restrictions on our lives that have adversely affected my mental health.

I feel incredibly selfish and mean sprited writing that, but it's how I feel to be honest.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

And Boris Johnson's unpopularity in Scotland is one of the reasons for the rise in support for independence

With a new Conservative leader in place, plus the economic reality of COVID-19 beginning to hit home, it might happen that support for independence stops rising, or begins to fall.

Nicola Sturgeon definitely has a vested interest in Boris Johnson staying on as long as possible, so perhaps he will announce his resignation before the Scottish elections, so as to knock the wind out of her sails, and allow Scottish voters to concentrate on her government's domestic record.

I agree that Boris is deeply unpopular in Scotland (including amongst Conservative voters and even party members) however he's just the figurehead - there is nearly the same level of dislike for the whole conservative government, changing the leader won't change that.
There is still a deep rooted hatred of the Tories in many parts of Scotland (and in England and Wales for that matter) than dates back to the Thatcher era (*still* sometimes reffered to as "Millk Snatcher")


The combination of a largely unwanted Brexit and a perception that ScotGov / SNP have handled the pandemic better than UKGov / Conservaties sit's firmly in the SNP's favour.
There's been a consistent rise in support for Independence in recent opinion polls pretty much reversing the 55/45 of 2014, I wouldn't be surprised if some start to show 60% in favour soon

Coming back on topic - ScotGov have generally been a bit more cautious with relaxing restrictions and i think still have a lot of support for that (not uncritical though) There is a widespread feeling here that UKGov were a bit cavalier with their easings in England with Lockdown 2 the Sequel being the (avoidable) result.

Unless the new strains cause significantly more hospitalisations and deaths I can see restrictions easing from March onwards (no government will want to still have significant restrictions one year on as it's A Significant Round Number).
I can see Boris wanting a big "glorious dawn" big-bang relaxation of rules with ScotGov and the Welsh Government taking a more staged approach (probably still using the Tiers/Levels system) to ease back in

 

[bramling]

I will also be very narked if my income taxes go up to fill the gap caused by the furlough scheme when I've not missed a day of work all year, and a lot of the people benefitting from the furlough scheme have been constantly putting the pressure on government to keep these restrictions on our lives that have adversely affected my mental health.

I feel incredibly selfish and mean sprited writing that, but it's how I feel to be honest.

A lot of people feel the same.

 

[yorkie]

Coming back on topic - ScotGov have generally been a bit more cautious with relaxing restrictions and i think still have a lot of support for that (not uncritical though) There is a widespread feeling here that UKGov were a bit cavalier with their easings in England with Lockdown 2 the Sequel being the (avoidable) result.

I must have imagined the lockdowns in Scotland then!

Are you actually arguing this yourself, or are you saying this is what people erroneously believe?

....I can see restrictions easing from March onwards ....

Blimey; when even people who've been supportive of lockdowns and restrictions can see this, it must surely become true!

 

[185143]

I will also be very narked if my income taxes go up to fill the gap caused by the furlough scheme when I've not missed a day of work all year, and a lot of the people benefitting from the furlough scheme have been constantly putting the pressure on government to keep these restrictions on our lives that have adversely affected my mental health.

I feel incredibly selfish and mean sprited writing that, but it's how I feel to be honest.

Agreed entirely. We both know that not a word you'd said is wrong though.