When will restrictions finally end?

[Bantamzen]

One thing I fear could ruin a lot of your predictions of most restrictions removed by April, is you remove restrictions, there will be spikes in cases. Potentially huge spikes.
Plus I'm in my late thirties with no known health issues. I don't expect to be vaccinated until September. But what if by then, there are signs that the vulnerable who received the vaccine in Dec/Jan are losing their immunity?

My age group may not get vaccinated as they need to re vaccinate the vulnerable again instead.
That could mean this coronavirus able to still keep surging.
I fear the immunity of the vaccine will not be as long lasting as a lot of you seem to be assuming.

It doesn't matter if there are future spikes once vaccination has been rolled out to those that need it, even if it requires regular boosters for those people. This is not about eliminating the virus, just protecting those that need it.

 

[kristiang85]

One thing I'm dreading is just as everything looks more positive, someone who has had the vaccine will contract covid. Even though this will happen as obviously the vaccine isn't 100% effective, I know the media jump on it and cause more panic.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I believe we will be in lockdown from January into mid February, it’ll be from mid February to April is when normality will be eased back in, with full normality from April onwards.

We cannot keep going into lockdown and restrictions indefinitely, this virus is here to stay, lockdowns make people poorer, people won’t be willing to put another year on hold vaccine or no vaccine.

Politically this will be interesting, since both Tories and Labour have backed these restrictions that have made people poorer and had their mental health deteriorating.

 

[duncanp]

I believe we will be in lockdown from January into mid February, it’ll be from mid February to April is when normality will be eased back in, with full normality from April onwards.

We cannot keep going into lockdown and restrictions indefinitely, this virus is here to stay, lockdowns make people poorer, people won’t be willing to put another year on hold vaccine or no vaccine.

Politically this will be interesting, since both Tories and Labour have backed these restrictions that have made people poorer and had their mental health deteriorating.

Another factor to consider is that there will be local and national elections in the first week of May.

If we still have significant restrictions by then, with no hope of any easing on the horizon, then the established parties are going to get a kicking at the ballot box.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Matt Hancock's 'Toy Story' flop in the Commons is evidence he's in burnout mode and he will at some stage need indefinate leave from office to recover which will bring to an end his time as Health Secretary. I suspect he'll be gone by the summer of next year, if not earlier.

I suspect some reshuffling in the cabinet next year too - Priti Patel is another who I suspect will go as she has done nothing to instill confidence in the police service while she has been Home Secretary. The bullying allegations and more recently the Twitter comment that halted the human trafficing trial are more ammunition that she needs to go.

Boris Johnson himself needs to make a sharp exit but I'm undecided if he will step down next year or 2022.

CJ

With Brexit done, I think Johnson will make a swift exit by Spring/Summer 2021, it’s no way he will be able to lead the tories to a fifth general election win in 2024, though who will replace him is anyone’s guess

 

[Reliablebeam]

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:







And a personal favourite of mine

The most worrying thing about some of these comments is that our government, obsessed with opinion polls and focus groups, might actually listen to these noisy dimwits. Although that doesn't seem to be the 'tilt' from todays press.

From my social and work circle, there's now a bit of an issue developing - my mates and male colleagues of a similar age to me, 30s-40s, are starting to ignore a lot of these rules, much to the chagrin of their partners. It seems that ladies of a similar age to me (and bear in mind these are mostly 'professional' women many with higher degrees) are quite zealoty about following the restrictions. It seems the 'protect the NHS' line resonates with this group quite strongly, even when the were arguably affected very badly by the lack of childcare in lockdown 1.0. This 'mumsnetty' group might be problematic for nuking the restrictions.

Just for balance lest I be accused of anything, two of my female PhD students have come out very strongly against lockdowns with no prodding or influence from me!!

 

[Mag_seven]

This is not about eliminating the virus

The trouble is you have politicians with power such as Sturgeon and Drakeford who seem to think that it is.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Another factor to consider is that there will be local and national elections in the first week of May.

If we still have significant restrictions by then, with no hope of any easing on the horizon, then the established parties are going to get a kicking at the ballot box.

Indeed, people aren’t as forgiving as they used to be when it comes to political parties, hence why Labour have been out of power for a decade, and I think the tories are on borrowed time, if an election was called today there would be no clear winner.

Hopefully by March/April we will be back to normal, but the distrust for the main parties will be here to stay.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:







And a personal favourite of mine

Some people really need to take a good long hard read of 1984, Fahrenheit 451 and Brave New World, because it’s their attitude and insistence on living in a culture of fear that brings about a totalitarian authoritarian regime, and the ironic thing is is that that these same people who advocated for continuous lockdown will scratch their heads and wonder where their civil liberties and human rights went

 

[bramling]

With Brexit done, I think Johnson will make a swift exit by Spring/Summer 2021, it’s no way he will be able to lead the tories to a fifth general election win in 2024, though who will replace him is anyone’s guess

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but I thought there was a hint of "my work's done now get on with it" in Johnson's recent speeches about the Brexit deal. It's obvious he's not planning to stick around.

 

[brad465]

The government and the media need to stop on concentrating solely on cases. There may still be huge numbers of cases for months and months to come yet. But with this huge vaccination programme being rolled out, soon the numbers of hospitalisations, numbers in hospitals, numbers in mechanical ventilator beds and deaths will thankfully be very very low and will never start rising significantly again. In which case there will be no requirements for all these restrictions any longer.

What I think the likes of the ONS, REACT and ZOE who produce regular surveys estimating infection rates need to do is to estimate recoveries as well. If they can estimate how many people have Covid in a given, week recoveries won't be much more work, where this measure will be a positive aspect to lessen the severity perceived of the virus, even if long lasting immunity isn't possible (this won't convince everyone, but it will help).

 

[duncanp]

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but I thought there was a hint of "my work's done now get on with it" in Johnson's recent speeches about the Brexit deal. It's obvious he's not planning to stick around.

And Boris Johnson's unpopularity in Scotland is one of the reasons for the rise in support for independence

With a new Conservative leader in place, plus the economic reality of COVID-19 beginning to hit home, it might happen that support for independence stops rising, or begins to fall.

Nicola Sturgeon definitely has a vested interest in Boris Johnson staying on as long as possible, so perhaps he will announce his resignation before the Scottish elections, so as to knock the wind out of her sails, and allow Scottish voters to concentrate on her government's domestic record.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but I thought there was a hint of "my work's done now get on with it" in Johnson's recent speeches about the Brexit deal. It's obvious he's not planning to stick around.

It’s no way BoJo will want to deal with the post Brexit and post Covid ramifications, however the post Covid ramifications will be much larger since lockdowns tanked the economy, the high street, the arts, small businesses are all on life support.

 

[theironroad]

Clutching at straws there!


We must have significant normality by Easter. Anything else is simply not acceptable, and not affordable (financially, economically and for our fundamental wellbeing)

I think you are out of touch if you think heavy restrictions are possible after Easter. The public won't tolerate this for that long and the costs will keep rising.

That would be political suicide; young people are much more at risk from factors relating to the measures taken to reduce the spread, than the virus itself.

I predict significant (but not total) normality from Easter onwards.

I don't know the scientific efficacy of masks, but I'd certainly imagine that many people haven't contracted covid from people who were wearing a make properly. I also think Biden's request is pure presidential symbolism.

You can think I'm out of touch if you wish. Reality has already shown that this has gone on longer than expected. Politicians claimed that all would be back to normal by Christmas. Was never going to be the case.

The emergence of a more contagious strain in last month and new cases at almost record levels and deaths creeping back up to some of April's levels suggests that normality isn't coming back in a few months.

Everyone wants an end to restrictions and all need to believe in the hope that it will be over, that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but I don't see the point in making unrealistic claims and promises.

Saying things like "we must have significant normality" and "the public won't tolerate this" are I'd suggest out of touch with a realistic timeframe for normality.

 

[DB]

I don't know the scientific efficacy of masks, but I'd certainly imagine that many people haven't contracted covid from people who were wearing a make properly.

There's actually no evidence for that being the case - in no country have masks led to any observable reduction in infections (although in some they have coincided with an increase, which may or may not be coincidence).

Saying things like "we must have significant normality" and "the public won't tolerate this" are I'd suggest out of touch with a realistic timeframe for normality.

I don't agree - it is becoming increasingly clear that outside of the Facbook/Mumsnet paranoia, people have had enough. Just look around you, and it's highly likely that you will see widespread ignoring of the rules and guidance.

 

[theironroad]

There's actually no evidence for that being the case - in no country have masks led to any observable reduction in infections (although in some they have coincided with an increase, which may or may not be coincidence).



I don't agree - it is becoming increasingly clear that outside of the Facbook/Mumsnet paranoia, people have had enough. Just look around you, and it's highly likely that you will see widespread ignoring of the rules and guidance.

There's been a cluster of people who ignore or dance around the regs since the start but wouldn't say widespread. Of course everyone has had enough, doesn't mean they are all carte blanche ignoring the rules or guidance.

While major public/sports/etc events and shops stay closed the rules are being complied with by default , less people congregating in large crowds means less transmission.

 

[DB]

There's been a cluster of people who ignore or dance around the regs since the start but wouldn't say widespread. Of course everyone has had enough, doesn't mean they are all carte blanche ignoring the rules or guidance.

While major public/sports/etc events and shops stay closed the rules are being complied with by default , less people congregating in large crowds means less transmission.

Where are all those cars around in the evenings going? Are the groups of young blokes buying loads of multi-packs of booze in Tesco planning to drink it all at home on their own? It's pretty clear that the closures and restrictions on hospitality has just resulted in people meeting up in houses. Likewise shopping - city centres are still busy, even with tier 3 restrictions.

 

[Bald Rick]

interesting discussion. And I haven’t read the papers’ take on it this morning.

What hasn’t been mentioned in this thread is how we reach the level of ‘herd immunity’, which can be through vaccination but also through people having the virus itself. Some parts of the country were seeing new infecton rates at over 1% of the population per week just before Christmas, and of course this is only for those infections detected. The real rate is likely to be half a percent higher or so. If that rate continues for a few weeks - and it may well do - it will increase the number of people immune from the other direction, perhaps adding as much as 10-15% to the ‘immune’ population.

My guess is that restrictions will be eased significantly when we have all the over 65s and Clinically Extremely Vulnerable immunised. By this point, about a third of the population will be immunised and/or have had the virus, and within that substantial fraction will be (almost) all those who are the most at risk of being hospitalised. So it won’t stop the virus, but it will significantly reduce its impact on the health service.

Maybe mid-late March to go back to how we were over the summer, and May (by which point over half the population should be immune) to get to ‘new normal’. There will, of course, be a sizeable minority of people who are still anxious and take self imposed precautions.

 

[brad465]

Another factor to consider is that there will be local and national elections in the first week of May.

If we still have significant restrictions by then, with no hope of any easing on the horizon, then the established parties are going to get a kicking at the ballot box.

Yes if no sign of normality exists by Easter, either by normal having not returned or a return date not announced, the Brexit/Reform party will seize the opportunity and make the issue very vocal in their campaign. I think the Lib Dems may do the same; I don't know where they stand on the issue other than they abstained in the last tier system vote.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Yes if no sign of normality exists by Easter, either by normal having not returned or a return date not announced, the Brexit/Reform party will seize the opportunity and make the issue very vocal in their campaign. I think the Lib Dems may do the same; I don't know where they stand on the issue other than they abstained in the last tier system vote.

I don't think so - the constituency in which I go to university has a Lib Dem MP. She has been a very vocal advocate of a "zero-Covid" approach. In addition, Lib Dem voters tend to show up as most supportive of lockdown in polling.

I expect the big winners in the May local elections, if restrictions haven't eased by then, will actually be local independent candidates. I think the Reform party will pick up some votes but the types of people who tend to oppose restrictions are not that keen on Farage or Brexit, and he will struggle to make inroads because of this (they will also find their support is too dispersed - they might get 25% in every part of a town, but not quite come first anywhere). However, independents could pick up a lot of disaffected voters, especially in areas where they are already well organised.

It's worth noting that there are more seats than usual up for election, because all of the council elections that should have happened last year will be happening then too. With a handful of exceptions, everywhere in the country should have some form of election then, unlike a normal year when only some areas have elections.

 

[bramling]

I don't know the scientific efficacy of masks, but I'd certainly imagine that many people haven't contracted covid from people who were wearing a make properly. I also think Biden's request is pure presidential symbolism.

You can think I'm out of touch if you wish. Reality has already shown that this has gone on longer than expected. Politicians claimed that all would be back to normal by Christmas. Was never going to be the case.

The emergence of a more contagious strain in last month and new cases at almost record levels and deaths creeping back up to some of April's levels suggests that normality isn't coming back in a few months.

Everyone wants an end to restrictions and all need to believe in the hope that it will be over, that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but I don't see the point in making unrealistic claims and promises.

Saying things like "we must have significant normality" and "the public won't tolerate this" are I'd suggest out of touch with a realistic timeframe for normality.

I can see the logic in all of the above, however I think the "public won't tolerate this" will become an increasingly relevant theme as time goes on.

We're already at the point where a lot of people are ignoring the gathering restrictions (unless a lot of people have taken to driving around aimlessly in their cars!), and as time goes on there's going to be the inevitable continuing trickle of business failures and job losses. Furlough may have been good for some people, however for those who have been on furlough for months on end (say you're staff in a restaurant, it's quite likely you'll have been on furlough from March to July - 4 months - and from November onwards - another 2 months, so now 6 months in total, with no immediately end in sight now) the 80% will be starting to seriously bite.

The NHS is messed up whatever happens, simply due to the backlog that's arisen all this year - just like we're seeing on the railway with the continually increasing training backlog.

Despite some of the reports on here, it's also quite obvious that police enforcement of the various restrictions is starting to wane, and in many places has been fairly non-existent from the start. Obviously there are a small number of exceptions, but these are clearly not the trend.

The newly upgraded Covid 2.0 (or is it 3.0 South African edition now?) may have bought Hancock a bit of short-term compliance, though I question whether people holding their noses in alleyways is really compliance, I'd say it's more neurosis or hysteria, but for many people they are already looking to the future. I really think the public won't tolerate this into the spring.

 

[Cdd89]

Furlough may have been good for some people, however for those who have been on furlough for months on end (say you're staff in a restaurant, it's quite likely you'll have been on furlough from March to July - 4 months - and from November onwards - another 2 months, so now 6 months in total, with no immediately end in sight now) the 80% will be starting to seriously bite.

Hmm - I was in a restaurant in Oxford a month or so back and overheard one of the waitresses saying she “couldn’t wait for the next lockdown”. I think you may underestimate how many people are benefiting from furlough and lockdown in various ways, even with the 80% hit.

Then there are many of my office-based colleagues who, while not furloughed, love working from home during Covid (which has been the case since March, in the company I work for), don’t do the sorts of things lockdowns forcibly restrict anyway (like shopping / restaurants / events), and who can ignore rules about socialising and other gatherings - and who are therefore of the view that measures should continue as long as possible as they directly benefit from them.

 

[hwl]

But we will be going from a position in which 100% of the most vulnerable people are in danger of hospitalisation to one where only 5% of those are. I cannot see how that will not have a major effect on hospitalisation rates, even if the virus is progressing through the rest of the population.

Even in the worst case scenario, the chances of it reaching all of those 5% at the same time must be miniscule, so the chances of the NHS being overwhelmed must be very small indeed.

But still enough cases to make it harder to clear the backlog of other operations and make operating hospitals very inefficient.
The 95% efficiency was measured in under 75s and those in the trials had substantially lower than average health issues. Vaccination effectiveness in over 70s is traditionally lower in previous vaccines so it might be wise not to bank on the Pfizer vaccine being 95% effective in the highest risk groups (it would be nice if it was but...)

The big potential bonus comes from any reduction in transmission due vaccination but we'll only find out about that when there is a sudden drop when around 20-30% of the overall population vaccinated.

There are some big unknowns in key data items and will only really find out those answers by getting on with it.

 

[yorksrob]

But still enough cases to make it harder to clear the backlog of other operations and make operating hospitals very inefficient.
The 95% efficiency was measured in under 75s and those in the trials had substantially lower than average health issues. Vaccination effectiveness in over 70s is traditionally lower in previous vaccines so it might be wise not to bank on the Pfizer vaccine being 95% effective in the highest risk groups (it would be nice if it was but...)

The big potential bonus comes from any reduction in transmission due vaccination but we'll only find out about that when there is a sudden drop when around 20-30% of the overall population vaccinated.

There are some big unknowns in key data items and will only really find out those answers by getting on with it.

That is true. But I think it's likely that there will be some effect in the over 75's and that in itself will bring cases down. It should at least allow the most disruptive measures to be scrapped and go back to the July situation where people were, for the most part, able to get on with their lives.

 

[C J Snarzell]

It's interesting that the attitude of some people on furlough has changed while others are still enjoying being away from the workplace.

Back in March, there was this behaviour of being off work, enjoy the sunshine, drink lots of beer, maybe have a barbeque, take the kids to the seaside and general enjoy the relaxation of bring on paid leave from work.

However, I do think there is a major shift in attitude now. One of my oldest friends has been furloughed since the beginning of November and he is climbing the walls desperate to get back to work to ease the bordem and monotony of being at home.

CJ

 

[NorthKent1989]

Don’t forget the London mayoral elections in 2021, they will be very interesting, what with everything going on with TfL being broke, the theatre and arts on life support, rental issues, urban centres being closed, it’ll be hard to decide who will win the London elections

 

[Richard Scott]

Hmm - I was in a restaurant in Oxford a month or so back and overheard one of the waitresses saying she “couldn’t wait for the next lockdown”. I think you may underestimate how many people are benefiting from furlough and lockdown in various ways, even with the 80% hit.

Until she realises that she doesn't have a job as restaurant now gone to the wall or needs fewer staff.
The furlough money will run out.

 

[Domh245]

Don’t forget the London mayoral elections in 2021, they will be very interesting, what with everything going on with TfL being broke, the theatre and arts on life support, rental issues, urban centres being closed, it’ll be hard to decide who will win the London elections

It'll inevitably be a khan win. He may be absolutely useless and the city very much not in a good way, but given the calibre (or lack thereof) of the main candidate running against him it's difficult to see him losing.

 

[ScottGallagher]

Don’t forget the London mayoral elections in 2021, they will be very interesting, what with everything going on with TfL being broke, the theatre and arts on life support, rental issues, urban centres being closed, it’ll be hard to decide who will win the London elections

I'm not sure about that , I think London in Mayoral terms will be Labour forever now and Saddiq Khan knows it so he has a free hand to do and say what he likes.

 

[Mag_seven]

Until she realises that she doesn't have a job as restaurant now gone to the wall or needs fewer staff.
The furlough money will run out.

I'm actually astounded about the level of ignorance out there about how the economy works. Many people seem to think that we can keep furloughing for "as long as it takes" and after its finished there will be no impact on the nations finances and the economy will still be the same as it was when we went into this. Some people are in for an almighty shock in the next few months.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm actually astounded about the level of ignorance out there about how the economy works. Many people seem to think that we can keep furloughing for "as long as it takes" and after its finished there will be no impact on the nations finances and the economy will still be the same as it was when we went into this. Some people are in for an almighty shock in the next few months.

Very true indeed. Some people just don't realise the importance of people going out there and doing stuff. It's an eye opener really.