When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Bayum]

I just hope that it’s called after the by-election so Boris et al can’t use the ‘He’s Class A General Election material’ line as an excuse to keep him.

Being booed on the steps of St Paul’s, being forced to read a Bible passage on dignity and honour by the palace during the ceremony, how many more red flags does BJ need before he takes the hint?

The reading from Philippians for those interested:

"Whatever is true, whatever is honourable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is pleasing, whatever is commendable … think about these things.”

 

[Shrop]

One thing ought to be certain, those Tories who have staunchly (or should I say blindly) defended Boris throughout Partygate will have done themselves no favours if they go for his job. Or even when putting themselves up for re-election.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I just hope that it’s called after the by-election.

If you were a decision-maker in a government with a post by-election overall majority of the size of the current administration, would you take the action to which you refer above? Harold Wilson would be turning in his grave to hear of such comments.

 

[Bayum]

If you were a decision-maker in a government with a post by-election overall majority of the size of the current administration, would you take the action to which you refer above? Harold Wilson would be turning in his grave to hear of such comments.

When all the current polling is suggesting losing the seats?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

When all the current polling is suggesting losing the seats?

You really need to think of the reality of the situation that is that the date of the next General Election due is not "just around the corner" and to give up power during the interim period when you have a large overall majority would show a total lack of political realism.

 

[Bayum]

You really need to think of the reality of the situation that is that the date of the next General Election due is not "just around the corner" and to give up power during the interim period when you have a large overall majority would show a total lack of political realism.

I was meaning the upcoming by-elections. In fact, I’m pretty sure I said by-election.

 

[317 forever]

For all the dismay reported over Partygate etc, we are not exactly in 1995 yet. Then the Conservatives had started their term of office in 1992 with a majority of 21. In the local elections Labour had done around 20% better in vote share. By comparison, in 2019 they started their term of office with a majority of 80, while this year Labour did just around 5% better.

 

[nw1]

You do realise that unless something dramatic should occur, it is still only the mid-term of the current Government and very many months will elapse before the next General Election will be held and certain parties will still currently not be in power and making policies that currently all they can do is talk about but not achieving anything.

I doubt that will be enough for Johnson to win the next election. Majorities can collapse dramatically as a result of an unpopular government, irrespective of what the opposition does. Cameron didn't offer anything particularly exciting for the 2010 election, yet managed to become PM primarily as a result of dissatisfaction with the previous Blair/Brown government.

If Johnson hangs on, and with the cost of living crisis likely to get worse before it gets better, I have little doubt that the result will be something other than a Tory majority at the next election - most likely a Labour led coalition.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2022 ==

If you were a decision-maker in a government with a post by-election overall majority of the size of the current administration, would you take the action to which you refer above? Harold Wilson would be turning in his grave to hear of such comments.

Of course.You either try to fight the election with an unpopular leader, or you have a mid term clearout and bring in a set of fresh faces (untainted by Partygate amongst other things), and there's your best chance at keeping the majority at the next election.

(I can't comment on Harold Wilson as he was before my time, but AFAIK he didn't do anything even remotely as morally dubious as Johnson, and therefore is not a good comparison).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If Johnson hangs on, and with the cost of living crisis likely to get worse before it gets better, I have little doubt that the result will be something other than a Tory majority at the next election - most likely a Labour led coalition.

The Labour Party's largest block seat loss was in an area where they once held as a major stronghold for very many years and now have fought General Elections in recent years there with no resemblance to their seats once held. I refer to Scotland.

 

[al78]

When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?​

Some would say it has gone wrong for them now. We'll not know for sure for a couple of years when the general election takes place. In order for them to lose, people have to switch to Labour which is the only other party capable of winning (two party system), and do the general public think Labour is a viable alternative? Corbyn appeared to do a good job of wrecking their chances.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I doubt that will be enough for Johnson to win the next election. Majorities can collapse dramatically as a result of an unpopular government, irrespective of what the opp

(I can't comment on Harold Wilson as he was before my time, but AFAIK he didn't do anything even remotely as morally dubious as Johnson, and therefore is not a good comparison).

Harold Wilson was in power in the 1960s and being born in 1945, I well remember him. The best description to suit him was that he was a political pragmatist.

 

[nw1]

The Labour Party's largest block seat loss was in an area where they once held as a major stronghold for very many years and now have fought General Elections in recent years there with no resemblance to their seats once held. I refer to Scotland.

A lot of people talk of Scotland, but, if we're talking about the Tories and their ability to maintain a majority, Scotland is an irrelevance.

We need to be looking at current Tory seats and whether they can be held at the next election. How many red-wall seats with three-figure or low-four-figure majorities can be held by the Tories at the next election? How many seats in the south are vulnerable to the Lib Dems? Will strategic tactical voting threaten still more Tory seats?

If say Labour regain half the red wall seats (which I'll define as being in the Midlands, NW England, Yorkshire and NE England) lost to the Tories in 2019, regain all seats in Wales lost to the Tories, and the Lib Dems gain say 10 seats in the south and southwest, how does this leave the Tories? Would be interesting to know.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2022 ==

When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?​

Some would say it has gone wrong for them now. We'll not know for sure for a couple of years when the general election takes place. In order for them to lose, people have to switch to Labour which is the only other party capable of winning (two party system), and do the general public think Labour is a viable alternative? Corbyn appeared to do a good job of wrecking their chances.

It doesn't necessarily have to involve a large swing to Labour. The Lib Dems will play a part too in a tactical voting strategy. If the Lib Dems nab a few strategically-targeted seats down south and a number of red-wall seats with small Tory majorities drift back to Labour, then the Tories could lose the election quite easily without a radically big swing away from them.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

A lot of people talk of Scotland, but, if we're talking about the Tories and their ability to maintain a majority, Scotland is an irrelevance.

I am most surprised that you feel that Scotland is an "irrelevance" as the seats that can be won there are just as countable to the final seat totals as anywhere else in our General Elections. Is it not just seats currently held by the Conservative Party that can be won or lost, but the seats currently held by all parties. I must confess to be somewhat shocked by your turning a "Nelson's blind eye" to past events in Scotland which is a region that returns quite a large number of seats at the times of General Elections and if your view is that the Labour Party can return as the largest political party at the next General Election, your seemingly acceptance of a Labour Party demise electorally in Scotland is one that "dyed in the blood of true Socialism" believers would never make.

 

[nw1]

I am most surprised that you feel that Scotland is an "irrelevance" as the seats that can be won there are just as countable to the final seat totals as anywhere else in our General Elections. Is it not just seats currently held by the Conservative Party that can be won or lost, but the seats currently held by all parties. I must confess to be somewhat shocked by your turning a "Nelson's blind eye" to past events in Scotland which is a region that returns quite a large number of seats at the times of General Elections and if your view is that the Labour Party can return as the largest political party at the next General Election, your seemingly acceptance of a Labour Party demise electorally in Scotland is one that "dyed in the blood of true Socialism" believers would never make.

Remember this thread isn't about "Can Labour get a majority?" it's about the fortunes of the Tories and Johnson.

Given the Tories hold a very low number of seats in Scotland, what goes on there is almost irrelevant to their chances of maintaining a majority - unless they can somehow make significant gains up there. Given that I don't think they're that popular up there, I can't see that happening.

Best instead to focus on the real battlegrounds: the north of England (Tory vs Labour) and the south (Tory vs Lib Dem).

Perhaps I am not a "dyed in the blood of true Socialism" person. Personal politics is more complex than that. I have very strong views on some matters but pretty middle of the road views on others.

 

[Acfb]

I am most surprised that you feel that Scotland is an "irrelevance" as the seats that can be won there are just as countable to the final seat totals as anywhere else in our General Elections. Is it not just seats currently held by the Conservative Party that can be won or lost, but the seats currently held by all parties. I must confess to be somewhat shocked by your turning a "Nelson's blind eye" to past events in Scotland which is a region that returns quite a large number of seats at the times of General Elections and if your view is that the Labour Party can return as the largest political party at the next General Election, your seemingly acceptance of a Labour Party demise electorally in Scotland is one that "dyed in the blood of true Socialism" believers would never make.

I'd say Scotland is more of an irrelevance to the Tories although I still think they will retain 3/4 seats here.

Scotland matters more to Labour as their only route to a majority (if they get back up to 20 seats say) but even if they only win 5-10 seats here like in 2017 (which is most likely IMO) that could help them become the largest party in a close election.


It's also possible that Labour could do well enough to cobble together enough seats with the Lib Dems regardless even though I'm more cautious about Starmer's prospects and expect something closer to 2017 especially if the Tories replace Johnson.

 

[Busaholic]

Gauke was of course one of the ex-Tories who stood as an independent in the 2019 election, which suggests he certainly isn't a friend of Johnson. I doubt he would be a supporter of Truss either given he was definitely a Brexit-sceptic while Truss appears to be an enthusiastic Brexiter and right-winger.

Truss was an enthusiastic 'remainer' until the day after the Referendum: she's just as must a chancer as Johnson. Her attempts at trying to take the 'credit' for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release were dealt severe blows in the latter'sin-depth interview with Emma Barnett on the BBC. She is an entirely insubstantial figure like so many in this government, and appears to share Johnson's casual attitude about whom she mates with. A modern-day Edwina Currie imo, another one who used to be an enthusiastic European before becoming a Johnson groupie.

 

[nw1]

Truss was an enthusiastic 'remainer' until the day after the Referendum: she's just as must a chancer as Johnson. Her attempts at trying to take the 'credit' for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release were dealt severe blows in the latter'sin-depth interview with Emma Barnett on the BBC. She is an entirely insubstantial figure like so many in this government, and appears to share Johnson's casual attitude about whom she mates with. A modern-day Edwina Currie imo, another one who used to be an enthusiastic European before becoming a Johnson groupie.

Yes I remember reading something or other by Ms Currie relatively recently, in which she appeared to demonstrate stridently anti-remainer views. Surprised me as I don't remember her being a eurosceptic in the 90s.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Yes I remember reading something or other by Ms Currie relatively recently, in which she appeared to demonstrate stridently anti-remainer views. Surprised me as I don't remember her being a eurosceptic in the 90s.

She also had two somewhat personal dubious claims to political fame, one concerning eggs and the other that led to people to believe that John Major was not as "grey" as he was painted.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Remember this thread isn't about "Can Labour get a majority?" it's about the fortunes of the Tories and Johnson.

Given the Tories hold a very low number of seats in Scotland, what goes on there is almost irrelevant to their chances of maintaining a majority - unless they can somehow make significant gains up there. Given that I don't think they're that popular up there, I can't see that happening.

I wouldn't totally rule out the possibility of the Tories gaining a few seats in Scotland at the next election, partially offsetting their near-certain losses in England and Wales. As I understand it, the main divide in Scotland isn't between 'progressives' and Conservatives - it's between the SNP and Unionists - so there's a possibility of anti-SNP tactical voting by Unionists, which might theoretically lead to Tory gains - particularly if some people who would've voted Labour become concerned at the possibility of a Labour-SNP coalition in Westminster.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Ignoring the last General Election, the 2017 election saw the Conservative Party with a minus 5 overall majority and the 2015 election saw the Conservative Party with an overall majority of only 12. Ignoring the reasons why that party did so well seat-wise in the 2019 election and looking how close matters were prior to that, it should be those two benchmarks that the other parties should be looking at in terms of the result of the next General Election.

Whilst it is obvious to all and sundry where my political allegiances lie, both my twin sons now aged 46 and professionals in their own fields do not subscribe to the old music hall song "I'm following my father's footsteps, I'm following my dear old Dad" but are both staunch Labour Party supporters and one was the leading party leafletter in the local elections.

 

[TheBigD]

Truss was an enthusiastic 'remainer' until the day after the Referendum: she's just as must a chancer as Johnson. Her attempts at trying to take the 'credit' for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release were dealt severe blows in the latter'sin-depth interview with Emma Barnett on the BBC. She is an entirely insubstantial figure like so many in this government, and appears to share Johnson's casual attitude about whom she mates with. A modern-day Edwina Currie imo, another one who used to be an enthusiastic European before becoming a Johnson groupie.

She's also a former libdem, having been President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats and a member of the national executive committee of its youth and student wing.

 

[Typhoon]

Truss was an enthusiastic 'remainer' until the day after the Referendum: she's just as must a chancer as Johnson. .... A modern-day Edwina Currie imo, another one who used to be an enthusiastic European before becoming a Johnson groupie.

The difference is that Thatcher did not promote Currie beyond Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Health; and Major was supposed to only have offered her a Minister of State position - middle or junior ranking positions, useful to have on side but can't do too much damage (in theory). Meanwhile ....

 

[Gloster]

The difference is that Thatcher did not promote Currie beyond Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Health; and Major was supposed to only have offered her a Minister of State position - middle or junior ranking positions, useful to have on side but can't do too much damage (in theory). Meanwhile ....

...Major did have her (a bit) on the side.

 

[jfollows]

The worse the Tories do in the by-elections, especially if they lost Tiverton, the more MPs will worry about keeping their seats. I therefore believe such a vote in Boris's leadership would have been more effective after June 24th. I therefore think MPs who want a vote in his leadership would have been wise to refrain from submitting their letters to Sir Graham until after the by-elections.

Just reading around, firstly I see that the bookmakers are currently offering odds of around 4:1 for a Conservative victory versus around 1:4 for a Liberal Democrat victory in Tiverton & Honiton [so the probability of a win for the Liberal Democrats at 80% verses 20% for the Conservatives implied]. I've not seen any opinion polls, so these odds may be the next best thing. The odds seem to be moving against the Conservatives over time, too. Reading around, I also see that the Conservatives in Tiverton and Honiton have been ordered by Conservative Central Office to go to ground, essentially hide and refuse any contact with the media, this especially includes Helen Hurford, the Conservative candidate. The reason for this ban is that Central Office thinks (rightly) that the local Conservatives will only be asked about Boris, they will fail to give the approved non-answer and instead just make things worse. These tactics served Jill Mortimer well in Hartlepool in 2021, but didn't work for North Shropshire the same year.

 

[317 forever]

Just reading around, firstly I see that the bookmakers are currently offering odds of around 4:1 for a Conservative victory versus around 1:4 for a Liberal Democrat victory in Tiverton & Honiton [so a win for the Liberal Democrats]. I've not seen any opinion polls, so these odds may be the next best thing. The odds seem to be moving against the Conservatives over time, too. Reading around, I see that the Conservatives in Tiverton and Honiton have been ordered by Conservative Central Office to go to ground, essentially hide and refuse any contact with the media, this especially includes Helen Hurford, the Conservative candidate. The reason for this ban is that Central Office thinks (rightly) that the local Conservatives will only be asked about Boris, they will fail to give the approved non-answer and instead just make things worse. These tactics served Jill Mortimer well in Hartlepool in 2021, but didn't work for North Shropshire the same year.

I think those results were to some extent influenced by the party of the disgraced departing MP in question. So, Hartlepool and North Shropshire were essentially Labour and Tory losses respectively, to the main runner-up from the General Election 2019.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Just reading around, firstly I see that the bookmakers are currently offering odds of around 4:1 for a Conservative victory versus around 1:4 for a Liberal Democrat victory in Tiverton & Honiton [so the probability of a win for the Liberal Democrats at 80% verses 20% for the Conservatives implied].

A cynic would see the word on these odds going round and if bets would be accepted at 4-1, the electorate could decide all to turn "true blue" on polling day and to demand their winnings the next day....

 

[jfollows]

The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-partygate-secret-ballot-b2094351.html) suggests that Boris might lose a confidence vote as soon as Tuesday, because significant numbers of ministers will vote against him in the secret ballot. I'm not convinced that things will move quite so rapidly, but I do believe that if there's a vote then he's got to win by a convincing margin and not just scrape across the line.

 

[nw1]

She's also a former libdem, having been President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats and a member of the national executive committee of its youth and student wing.

Really surprised to learn that given she was one of the "Britannia Unchained" lot alongside well-known right-wingers Patel and Raab.

So not sure if she's a "road to Damascus" right wing convert, or, as has been suggested already, a Johnson-style "blows with the wind" politician.

I would say "Britannia Unchained" is a weakness for her though. The opposition could easily grab that and use it as ammunition: it's "British workers are shirkers" message isn't going to sit well with the Red Wall patriot 2019 Tory-convert crowd.

 

[Busaholic]

The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-partygate-secret-ballot-b2094351.html) suggests that Boris might lose a confidence vote as soon as Tuesday, because significant numbers of ministers will vote against him in the secret ballot. I'm not convinced that things will move quite so rapidly, but I do believe that if there's a vote then he's got to win by a convincing margin and not just scrape across the line.

Apparently anything less than the 63% that Theresa May 'won' would be considered a disaster, but that's not to say he'd go voluntarily. I do wonder if the only way he'll come out of Downing Street will be by force (lawful, of course.) His narcissism and power madness has no bounds, any more than Trump's.

 

[jfollows]

The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...lies-vote-of-no-confidence-conservative-party) now reporting that Boris and his team is switching gear, having now realised that the vote of no confidence is increasingly likely. Grant Shapps earlier today said he did not think there would be a vote this week; Paul Scully (business minister) is now saying that it "might well happen" but that Boris will "face it down". So Boris will beaver away at trying to demonstrate how indispensable he is to the country and is introducing simply wonderful new policies, sorting out the NHS, that sort of thing. A source is quoted as saying that Boris wouldn't resign if he only won by a small margin, but I simply don't believe that, or - rather - he won't resign but he'll be stabbed in the front by his ex-colleagues if he refuses to go under these circumstances. Interesting times.