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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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DynamicSpirit

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On Twitter there are posts discussing a superinjunction which might explain a lack of reporting in the mainstream media

How sure are we that Twitter thread is based on genuine information? I notice that the image in that tweet that purports to be from part of Sue Gray's report has a *very* obvious spelling mistake in the header of the letter, which would seem somewhat unlikely if it was an actual official document (but very plausible if it was something that someone had mocked up for Twitter).
 
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ainsworth74

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How sure are we that Twitter thread is based on genuine information? I notice that the image in that tweet that purports to be from part of Sue Gray's report has a *very* obvious spelling mistake in the header of the letter, which would seem somewhat unlikely if it was an actual official document.
It's not a thread it's a list of tweets that can be ordered in various ways (such as latest or most popular) that all use the hashtag "superinjunction" so you'll get tweets from all sorts of people about all sorts of things.
 

DynamicSpirit

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It's not a thread it's a list of tweets that can be ordered in various ways (such as latest or most popular) that all use the hashtag "superinjunction" so you'll get tweets from all sorts of people about all sorts of things.

Ah yes, I see what you mean. Thanks!
 

bspahh

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It's not a thread it's a list of tweets that can be ordered in various ways (such as latest or most popular) that all use the hashtag "superinjunction" so you'll get tweets from all sorts of people about all sorts of things.
Ah yes, I see what you mean. Thanks!
I'm not a lawyer, but I suspect its better to avoid discussing details of something that you think might be covered by a superinjunction on a forum like this. Keyword searching is available at twitter.
 

Busaholic

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I'm not a lawyer, but I suspect its better to avoid discussing details of something that you think might be covered by a superinjunction on a forum like this. Keyword searching is available at twitter.
I'm not a lawyer either, but if a superinjunction means that you cannot discuss any matter covered by the superinjunction, nor the existence of the superinjunction, how can anyone discuss anything about the rich/ famous/notorious as it may be the subject of a superinjunction of which you are unaware. It seems in this case ignorance of the law is indeed a lawful defence. Lewis Carroll meets George Orwell.
 

jon0844

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I'm not a lawyer either, but if a superinjunction means that you cannot discuss any matter covered by the superinjunction, nor the existence of the superinjunction, how can anyone discuss anything about the rich/ famous/notorious as it may be the subject of a superinjunction of which you are unaware. It seems in this case ignorance of the law is indeed a lawful defence. Lewis Carroll meets George Orwell.
That's the main controversy over these injunctions. They've supposedly been abused by the rich and famous for years.
 

bspahh

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If you join the Conservative party (£2.09 a month for standard membership), there is a 3 month period before you can vote for a local candidtate or for the party leadership.
 

Acfb

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A poll has just been released by JL Partners showing a 20% Labour lead in Wakefield:

LAB: 48% (+8) CON: 28% (-19) GRN: 8% (New) LDM: 7% (+3) RFM: 3% (-3)


Perhaps there will be a VONC next week after all but who knows what Tory MPs are thinking.
 

brad465

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By-election polls can have wide margins of error, but a 20 point lead at this stage looks strong for Labour to take it. The poll also highlights vote splitting, with Labour only taking 8 to the Tories losing 19, with the Greens taking most of the remaining swing.

There are rumours the 54 letter number has been reached and a vote will be called after the Jubilee weekend, this opinion poll certainly will up the view Johnson needs to go.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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There are rumours the 54 letter number has been reached and a vote will be called after the Jubilee weekend, this opinion poll certainly will up the view Johnson needs to go.
If that be the case, it will be the result of what that then brings forth with the votes of all the Conservative Party MPs making a final decision on the said matter.
 

Busaholic

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The danger now to getting rid of the squatter in no. 10 at the earliest possible opportunity is that Sir Graham Brady announces on Monday or Tuesday that the letter threshold has been reached and a vote is immediately triggered, before the by-elections are held. In those circumstances, with the ministerial 'payroll' vote probably remaining largely onside Johnson wins the vote and can't be so challenged again for another year. After the by-elections so many more Tory MPs will be thinking purely of no. 1 with the realisation that only the ditching of the woolly mammoth might save some of their skins come General Election time.
 

bspahh

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The danger now to getting rid of the squatter in no. 10 at the earliest possible opportunity is that Sir Graham Brady announces on Monday or Tuesday that the letter threshold has been reached and a vote is immediately triggered, before the by-elections are held. In those circumstances, with the ministerial 'payroll' vote probably remaining largely onside Johnson wins the vote and can't be so challenged again for another year. After the by-elections so many more Tory MPs will be thinking purely of no. 1 with the realisation that only the ditching of the woolly mammoth might save some of their skins come General Election time.
If enough conservative MPs think that Johnson is a liability, they can change the rules of the 1922 committee. They don't have to rely on Johnson quitting honourably.
 

Busaholic

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If enough conservative MPs think that Johnson is a liability, they can change the rules of the 1922 committee. They don't have to rely on Johnson quitting honourably.
Johnson's never done anything honourable in his life, so he's not going to start now. I suspect that many of his praetorian guard have studied Trump's tactics in order to adapt them to British conditions.
 

317 forever

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Or, indeed, any majority government of any colour having absolute power on less than 50% of the vote. I would also quote 1983, 1987 and 2019 as notably "unfair" results in the sense that in each case, a government with very strident views on a range of issues got absolute power on less than 45% of the vote. (Some might also add 1997 to that, but I would not consider the first Blair term as "strident").

I would say the 2017 result is one of the "fairest" in recent times. And it delivered a non-majority government, which I would argue is more healthy. A result that recognised that not all of us think the same. May continued as PM, which was fair enough given the Tories came first, but the other parties and Tory rebels had significant say on matters. A rare example of true democracy, as opposed to "winner-takes-all" pseudo-democracy. And with someone more effective than Corbyn as the leader of the opposition, I suspect it would have been better.
What did make the hung Parliament the correct result in 2017 was that the vote share of the 2 main parties was the closest it had been for some time: 42% against 40%.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Labour in 2005 got 355 seats - ie. a comfortable majority - on just 35.2% of the vote, so as mentioned above they have benefitted from this too in the recent past. (In the same election, the Tories got 32.4% but only 198 seats). That's probably the most obvious candidate for 'least fair' result in living memory.

They still got 258 seats in 2010 on only 29% of the vote! Corbyn only got 4 more seats than that in 2017 with 40%...
When Labour lost office in 2010 they indeed got just 29% of the vote on a 65% turnout. Conversely, when the Conservatives lost office in 1997 they still got 31% of the vote in a 72% turnout. Yet the numbers of seats retained made the 1997 Tory defeat more stunning than the 2010 Labour defeat.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The danger now to getting rid of the squatter in no. 10 at the earliest possible opportunity is that Sir Graham Brady announces on Monday or Tuesday that the letter threshold has been reached and a vote is immediately triggered, before the by-elections are held. In those circumstances, with the ministerial 'payroll' vote probably remaining largely onside Johnson wins the vote and can't be so challenged again for another year. After the by-elections so many more Tory MPs will be thinking purely of no. 1 with the realisation that only the ditching of the woolly mammoth might save some of their skins come General Election time.
The worse the Tories do in the by-elections, especially if they lost Tiverton, the more MPs will worry about keeping their seats. I therefore believe such a vote in Boris's leadership would have been more effective after June 24th. I therefore think MPs who want a vote in his leadership would have been wise to refrain from submitting their letters to Sir Graham until after the by-elections.
 
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The Ham

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Here's the latest from the Telegraph, it reads more like a Guardian article than one from a paper which often supports the Tory Party, as such I suspect that the PM maybe in a fair amount of trouble:


Number 10 plans charm offensive to win over 64 rebels identified as a risk to Boris Johnson​

Many now expect that a no confidence vote could be called as soon as Monday or Tuesday

Downing Street is planning a charm offensive against 64 Tory rebels it believes can be won over to avoid a no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
Advisers have drawn up a list of wavering rebels to be invited to No10 for a love-bombing meeting led by the Prime Minister and Oliver Dowden, the Tory chairman.
The list features party grandees and frontbenchers including Theresa May, Julian Lewis, Tom Tugendhat and Julian Smith, and even a serving minister – Guy Opperman.
Although other MPs who have been publicly critical of Mr Johnson, including Andrew Bridgen, feature on the list, it does not include some of the most hardcore rebels, such as William Wragg.
An earlier attempted coup against Mr Johnson in January was organised largely by recently elected MPs in Red Wall constituencies, dubbed the “pork pie plotters”.

The informal group was named after the constituency of Alicia Kearns, a ringleader, who represents Melton Mowbray.
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But The Telegraph understands Downing Street is now more concerned about the loyalty of many of the Prime Minister’s previous supporters, in Tory safe seats in the south of England.
Many of those on the list for this week’s charm offensive represent constituencies in the south-east and south-west of England.
Despite a “ceasefire” in calls for Mr Johnson’s resignation over the Platinum Jubilee weekend, more rebels are expected to submit letters early next week.
It is unknown exactly how many letters of no confidence have been sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, but many expect a confidence vote could be called on Monday or Tuesday.
Some senior Conservatives believe the target of 54 letters has already been reached, with one Tory source speculating that the total could already be as high as 70.

When the number is reached, Sir Graham will inform Mr Johnson, who is in control of the timeline of a vote.
The Telegraph understands that invitations for the meeting of wavering rebels in No10 have not yet been sent, with officials waiting to see whether the threshold has already been crossed before launching the charm offensive.
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But those close to the Prime Minister are also concerned he could lose the confidence vote if it is held after two upcoming by-elections on June 23.
The Conservatives believe that Wakefield, a Red Wall seat won by the Tories in 2019, is likely to flip back to Labour.
But a senior party source said on Fridayt that campaigning was also “very, very hard going” in Tiverton and Homerton, where a by-election will be held on the same day to replace Neil Parish, who resigned after being caught watching pornography in the House of Commons chamber.
Mr Parish holds a 24,000 majority in the constituency, but the Conservatives are facing a challenge by the Liberal Democrats, who believe they could win it because of a collapse in Tory support in the “Blue Wall”.

Waiting to see by-election results​

Several wavering Tory MPs who are privately critical of Mr Johnson say they are waiting to see the by-election results before deciding whether to attack him in public.
On Thursday, David Gauke, the former Conservative MP, said he believed a confidence vote was “imminent” and that should Mr Johnson lose it, Liz Truss is most likely to replace him.
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But Mr Johnson’s supporters have said they not only have confidence in his leadership, but that a vote is unlikely to take place next week.
Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister, said the speculation was “Westminster froth”.
“Votes of no-confidence, leadership contests, is yet more Westminster talking to itself... and I think the vast majority of MPs recognise and agree with that,” he told the BBC this week
 

jfollows

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The Times "Tories face crushing by-election defeat as voters spurn Johnson" reports the same poll for Wakefield (I think) with Conservative vote at 28%, compared to 47% in the 2019 general election, and this would feed through into a Labour majority of around 5,000 assuming turnout at 50% of that at the general election; the previous Conservative majority in 2019 was 3,358.
A survey by James Johnson concludes that Johnson's behaviour is the direct cause of voters switching from Conservative to Labour.
So if the "red wall" Conservative MPs come to the same conclusion, the sooner they get rid of Johnson the better, surely? As I've seen elsewhere, their relationship with him is "transactional", so they made him leader to get them their seats, and that worked, but now it isn't working any more. I don't think he has much personal or "tribal" support from his MPs.
 

Typhoon

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Here's the latest from the Telegraph, it reads more like a Guardian article than one from a paper which often supports the Tory Party, as such I suspect that the PM maybe in a fair amount of trouble:

I believe you are right. To me the article seems a bit rushed but I suspect the Telegraph is more interested in and concerned for the future of a Conservative government; if it means jettisoning the current PM (who, I suspect, many Telegraph readers at best tolerate rather than support) so be it.

If they really think that the likes of Theresa May and Tom Tugendhat can be persuaded by a meeting with Johnson, they really are desperate. My hunch would be that neither of them (nor the minister, who seems to be rather too independently minded to be in government) would put letters in, but when it comes to a vote, that is a different matter.
It could even be that Johnson's best card is a vote before the by-elections if only so that he can put any poor performance down to the uncertainty caused by rebel MPs.

I'm not certain that Gauke's claim that Liz Truss is the likely potential next PM has done his party any favours though; she may be, but I'm not sure that will help on 23rd June - unless that is the aim.
 

jfollows

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The BBC reports (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61693296)

Partygate: Will Boris Johnson survive June?​

including great pessimism from Tiverton and Honiton:
Another source added: "There is no alternative that doesn't blow apart the red wall. It's a huge decision for the party - if you get rid of him, you chuck the progress of the last few years in the bin".
That is clearly not a view shared by many of his MPs. The prime minister's critics have spent the past week looking at polls - and concluding a change is needed.
Among the most despairing are those who have spent time on the doorsteps ahead of the by-election in Tiverton and Honiton.
One told the BBC the picture in the constituency was "appalling" with some voters saying they wouldn't back the Conservatives again without a change of leader.
There is no shortage of nerves among Tory MPs who could face a similar challenge at the next election - there are even some who have concluded they have no chance of winning their seat next time.
In the coming days or weeks, they will have a decision to make. Whether to act - or to keep the prime minister in office.
Will June be a moment of truth for the Conservative Party - or another damp squib in the long running leadership psychodrama? Many Tory MPs are weighing that up as the bank holiday draws to a close.
 

nw1

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I believe you are right. To me the article seems a bit rushed but I suspect the Telegraph is more interested in and concerned for the future of a Conservative government; if it means jettisoning the current PM (who, I suspect, many Telegraph readers at best tolerate rather than support) so be it.

If they really think that the likes of Theresa May and Tom Tugendhat can be persuaded by a meeting with Johnson, they really are desperate. My hunch would be that neither of them (nor the minister, who seems to be rather too independently minded to be in government) would put letters in, but when it comes to a vote, that is a different matter.
It could even be that Johnson's best card is a vote before the by-elections if only so that he can put any poor performance down to the uncertainty caused by rebel MPs.

I'm not certain that Gauke's claim that Liz Truss is the likely potential next PM has done his party any favours though; she may be, but I'm not sure that will help on 23rd June - unless that is the aim.

Gauke was of course one of the ex-Tories who stood as an independent in the 2019 election, which suggests he certainly isn't a friend of Johnson. I doubt he would be a supporter of Truss either given he was definitely a Brexit-sceptic while Truss appears to be an enthusiastic Brexiter and right-winger.

I'm not sure of Gauke's current relationship with the Tories but I somewhat doubt it's too favourable.

Also I note the brown-nosing by his acolytes Patel and Raab in that Telegraph article. Their sycophancy is, I'm sure, the only reason they haven't been sacked for their respective indiscretions.
 
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jfollows

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The worse the Tories do in the by-elections, especially if they lost Tiverton, the more MPs will worry about keeping their seats. I therefore believe such a vote in Boris's leadership would have been more effective after June 24th. I therefore think MPs who want a vote in his leadership would have been wise to refrain from submitting their letters to Sir Graham until after the by-elections.
I think you're right, and I also think it's good that we're going to have two by-elections in radically different constituencies on the same day. Just one, and the excuses of "specific local issues" get trotted out by people who don't actually believe this but say it in hope, but with two by-elections if the outcome is as bad for the Conservatives as early predictions imply it'll be much hard to avoid putting the blame on Johnson. I get the feeling that the timing is now out of the hands of the MPs, with strong implications that enough letters have now been submitted, but if not then waiting a couple more weeks could make sense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The Observer is now reporting along similar lines (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-hasnt-come-up-as-tory-grassroots-anger-grows):
If the Conservatives were to lose both contests in a wave of anger against Johnson over Partygate, then there is a feeling within the party at large that all bets could be off.

“It will be at that moment that the message would really get through to colleagues that rather being an election winner, our leader has become an election loser,” said the Tory rebel. “So for those of us who want him out it might well be best to wait until the moment of maximum danger, and that is probably around 24 June.”
 
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Xenophon PCDGS

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I think you're right, and I also think it's good that we're going to have two by-elections in radically different constituencies on the same day. Just one, and the excuses of "specific local issues" get trotted out by people who don't actually believe this but say it in hope, but with two by-elections if the outcome is as bad for the Conservatives as early predictions imply it'll be much hard to avoid putting the blame on Johnson.
How strange it is to hear of "National Issues" affecting the results of council elections and "Specific local issues" affecting the results of a by-election. The phrase "topsy-turvy" suddenly springs to mind.
 

nw1

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I think you're right, and I also think it's good that we're going to have two by-elections in radically different constituencies on the same day. Just one, and the excuses of "specific local issues" get trotted out by people who don't actually believe this but say it in hope, but with two by-elections if the outcome is as bad for the Conservatives as early predictions imply it'll be much hard to avoid putting the blame on Johnson. I get the feeling that the timing is now out of the hands of the MPs, with strong implications that enough letters have now been submitted, but if not then waiting a couple more weeks could make sense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The Observer is now reporting along similar lines (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-hasnt-come-up-as-tory-grassroots-anger-grows):

Interestingly a sweet irony is that 23 June 2022 could be as positive for the country as 23 June 2016 was, for some of us at least, negative - in the sense that it could, perhaps, be the day that seals Johnson's fate. Both were/are Thursdays too, interestingly.
 

nw1

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If all goes the way of the pundits, the Conservative Party will still have an overall majority better than that of what the Theresa May administration had before and after the General Election she called.

Is that an argument to keep Johnson?

Irrelevant if so, because it's the next general election which matters.
 

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Gauke was of course one of the ex-Tories who stood as an independent in the 2019 election, which suggests he certainly isn't a friend of Johnson. I doubt he would be a supporter of Truss either given he was definitely a Brexit-sceptic while Truss appears to be an enthusiastic Brexiter and right-winger.

I'm not sure of Gauke's current relationship with the Tories but I somewhat doubt it's too favourable.
To me Gauke was (is?) a straight-down-the-line Conservative (other than over Europe). I would say that he is more representative of the traditional Conservative voter than Johnson will ever be. The PM is probably banking on the likes of Telegraph readers having nowhere else to go; unfortunately for him they can stay at home knowing that, even if the worst comes to the worst, the Conservatives will go into the next election with a comfortable majority (thanks to his success in 2019).
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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But the real question is "which leader is likely to win the Tories the next general election?"

The majority now is irrelevant if they lose the next election.
You do realise that unless something dramatic should occur, it is still only the mid-term of the current Government and very many months will elapse before the next General Election will be held and certain parties will still currently not be in power and making policies that currently all they can do is talk about but not achieving anything.
 
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