When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[brad465]

There is increasing speculation that a General Election may happen later this year, after the dire Bank of England report yesterday have shone a light on how things are not going to get any better for the Government, so they'd move to try and curb their losses.

 

[GS250]

There is increasing speculation that a General Election may happen later this year, after the dire Bank of England report yesterday have shone a light on how things are not going to get any better for the Government, so they'd move to try and curb their losses.

This echoes my thoughts that now is not a great time to be in government. It also echos my feelings that governments are struggling to contain those who really control the World.

 

[Busaholic]

Condolences on the loss of your wife and I whole heartedly agree with the general thrust of your post around how demeaning the whole benefit system is for disabled people (heck people in general, why should jobseekers be treated as a particularly awful piece of dirt on the sole of your shoe?) but, just a word of caution, that whilst the Pension Credit itself may only be a pittance above your state pension it can unlock other things. A 100% reduction on a Council Tax bill, full Housing Benefit to cover all or most of someone's rent and free NHS dental treatment for instance. The direct financial advantage of Pension Credit might be slight but it can still be worth claiming to unlock other things that can make a huge difference.

Thanks for that. I was vaguely aware of the 'unlocking' potential. It's a bit more complicated for me, because my wife had an occupational pension from decades ago, and I believe I am entitled to a small widower's pension, but it is taking an awful long time to establish from Capita (who have inherited the pension liability at fourth hand) what that might consist of, nevertheless it would certainly take me over the Pension Credit limit. I should then get it backdated three months from the day after my wife died, which will doubtless come in handy when I get my next fuel bill.

 

[AlterEgo]

I'm more referring to the more moderate Socialist nations such as those in mainland Europe. No doubt...it's worked for many. However if you are in the top 5% you are certainly expected to pay your way. I think an awful lot of relatively wealthy Britons would get something of a shock if a genuine socialist framework was implemented.

It may come to this this if your large demographic of lower-middle earners can no longer pay their bills or start losing their homes.

Europe does not have any socialist governments. Which ones are you thinking of?

 

[david1212]

There is increasing speculation that a General Election may happen later this year, after the dire Bank of England report yesterday have shone a light on how things are not going to get any better for the Government, so they'd move to try and curb their losses.

This echoes my thoughts that now is not a great time to be in government. It also echos my feelings that governments are struggling to contain those who really control the World.

While I agree with the second post I have quoted equally I wonder if a General Election would / could result in significant overall change for the better.


Just on the news is that Starmer is under investigation for a lockdown beer and curry.

Starmer told to resign if fined over beergate 'He should be worried'

KEIR STARMER has been warned the police investigation into a lockdown curry and beer with colleagues is a major threat to his leadership of the Labour Party.

www.express.co.uk

Given all he has said about BoJo and others not resigning when they should he would be in a difficult position if fined.

I can not see that a change of Labour leader would do anything but damage their position if there was an autumn General Election.

 

[Shrop]

I hate to say this but it looks like this thread is losing momentum, for the reason that we seem to be stuck with Boris for the foreseeable future. It seems we have neither a worthy alternative leader for the Tories, nor a worthy alternative political party. What a sad reflection of the state of our country.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

...for another there could be no charges of hypocrisy levelled if this incident was in fact illegal.

It might be better to wait until the decision on the legality has been reached.

 

[uglymonkey]

Until we get a "credible" opposition with some bite to it that permanaently puts the government on the back foot, I think we will be stuck with the tories for a very long time to come.

 

[nw1]

Until we get a "credible" opposition with some bite to it that permanaently puts the government on the back foot, I think we will be stuck with the tories for a very long time to come.

I don't think there is cause for such pessimism (for those of us who want a change). Granted the opposition is not perfect, but people might prefer to vote for the "least worst option" which may be someone other than the Tories, at least while Johnson and his acolytes are in power. Particularly once the austerity starts to bite.

 

[MattRat]

I hate to say this but it looks like this thread is losing momentum, for the reason that we seem to be stuck with Boris for the foreseeable future. It seems we have neither a worthy alternative leader for the Tories, nor a worthy alternative political party. What a sad reflection of the state of our country.

The Lib Dems are looking good. If they gain enough power, it could really shake things up, as the other parties would have to go through them first.

 

[dosxuk]

The Lib Dems are looking good. If they gain enough power, it could really shake things up, as the other parties would have to go through them first.

That worked out so well for them last time...

 

[Cowley]

Quite a bit of Labour related discussions going on in this thread so I’ve moved some of them into the existing Labour one which is below:

Where did it all go wrong for Labour?

A only slightly tongue in cheek plagiarisation of @Butts thread on the Lib Dems May's elections for various offices in the whole of Great Britain, saw this once great Party standing on the edge of the abyss and becoming if it is not already an irrelevance. Behind SNP and Tories in Scotland...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[The Ham]

Not a good news story by the Mail re Johnson:

Boris 'had food poisoning' before GMB interview with Susanna Reid

Boris Johnson endured a torrid time when he was grilled on ITV's Good Morning Britain last week for the first time in five years, struggling to justify the government's cost-of-living response.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Boris Johnson had food poisoning before a brutal interview where he admitted he was 'beaten up' by presenter Susanna Reid.

The PM endured a torrid time when he was grilled on ITV's Good Morning Britain last week for the first time in five years, struggling to justify the government's cost-of-living response.

But aides revealed that Mr Johnson had just finished throwing up before going on screen - and a 'distress signal' had been arranged with Susanna in case he needed to make a hasty exit.

'He had food poisoning,' an aide told the Sunday Times. 'He was throwing up and had to change his suit because he got sick on his lapel.'

Afterwards the PM is understood to have gone went straight to his morning meeting with senior aides and announced: 'I just got beaten up by Susanna Reid.'

Some on Twitter have been saying that they have "food poisoning" due to dodgy food that they eat on a night out.

 

[david1212]

I hate to say this but it looks like this thread is losing momentum, for the reason that we seem to be stuck with Boris for the foreseeable future. It seems we have neither a worthy alternative leader for the Tories, nor a worthy alternative political party.

+1

What a sad reflection of the state of our country.

Indeed

Until we get a "credible" opposition with some bite to it that permanaently puts the government on the back foot, I think we will be stuck with the tories for a very long time to come.

The Lib Dems are looking good. If they gain enough power, it could really shake things up, as the other parties would have to go through them first.

The problem is winning enough seats.
With the current system if hypothetically the voting is split Con 35% Lab 30% LibDem 20% Green 15% Other 10%
the seats could be Con 70% Lab 25% All others 5%

Unfair but not in the interests of either Con or Lab to change to some form of proportional representation.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The problem is winning enough seats.
With the current system if hypothetically the voting is split Con 35% Lab 30% LibDem 20% Green 15% Other 10%
the seats could be Con 70% Lab 25% All others 5%

Wouldn't be anything like that. FPTP distorts the numbers of seats but not to that extent. Even Tony Blair in the 1997 landslide only got 63% of the seats - and that was with Labour being 13% ahead of the Tories in the vote share AND benefitting from a set of boundaries that was biased more in Labour's favour that the Tories.

Based on recent results, I would say that Con 35% Lab 30% in vote share would be most likely to lead to a hung Parliament with the Conservatives having something like 45-48% of the seats in the Commons. Obviously still unfair though.

(By the way your hypothetical vote share numbers add up to 110%, but that doesn't change the reasoning )

 

[nw1]

Wouldn't be anything like that. FPTP distorts the numbers of seats but not to that extent. Even Tony Blair in the 1997 landslide only got 63% of the seats - and that was with Labour being 13% ahead of the Tories in the vote share AND benefitting from a set of boundaries that was biased more in Labour's favour that the Tories.

Based on recent results, I would say that Con 35% Lab 30% in vote share would be most likely to lead to a hung Parliament with the Conservatives having something like 45-48% of the seats in the Commons. Obviously still unfair though.

True, but very much less unfair than a majority though. A "hung parliament with Tories largest party" scenario would at least be not a million miles away from the actual result. Might, for example, lead to alliances between moderate Tories and the other parties, and the likes of Johnson, Patel, Raab (assuming he's not been dumped by targeted tactical voting) and the ERG being consigned to the fringes where they belong. Consensus politics is what we badly need, not (on the one hand) fundamentalist Brexiters or (on the other hand) Momentum.

 

[nw1]

Meanwhile a minor minister, Kit Malthouse, seems to claim that if Starmer does resign, Johnson shouldn't, necessarily:

PM should not have to copy any Starmer resignation, says minister

Policing minister Kit Malthouse says Labour leader has to ‘set his own standards’

www.theguardian.com

Time the Houses of Parliament were rid of brown-nosing sycophants like Malthouse.

 

[Busaholic]

Meanwhile a minor minister, Kit Malthouse, seems to claim that if Starmer does resign, Johnson shouldn't, necessarily:

PM should not have to copy any Starmer resignation, says minister

Policing minister Kit Malthouse says Labour leader has to ‘set his own standards’

www.theguardian.com

Time the Houses of Parliament were rid of brown-nosing sycophants like Malthouse.

And to think it was Starmer who was being accused of hypocrisy!!!

 

[Acfb]

This Labour supporter seems to think Starmer's statement yesterday was more to do with influencing Tory MPs:

Keir Starmer's BeerGate Gamble

One of the most annoying phrases in politics, and a favourite of Keir Starmer's, is "let me take this head on." Invariably, the answer that ...

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com

 

[ainsworth74]

And to think it was Starmer who was being accused of hypocrisy!!!

I mean I assume they've been severely wrong footed by someone saying they'll do the right thing. They probably assumed that Kier would refuse to resign if issued with an FPN giving them more cover for their own mans law breaking.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I mean I assume they've been severely wrong footed by someone saying they'll do the right thing. They probably assumed that Kier would refuse to resign if issued with an FPN giving them more cover for their own mans law breaking.

Either way I think he is still attempting to justify things. The principle was that all unnecessary time spent with others had to be minimised. As such, if they were going to eat they should have returned to their hotel rooms to do so (or whatever, e.g. eaten alone at socially distanced desks) and not had a communal meal, whether they were going to work afterwards or not.

This is what they were telling us, so even if he's not broken the law, it's still hypocritical.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder when the police investigation will have reached a decision on the Kier Starmer incident?

(Should this posting be on the "When did it all go wrong for Labour" thread or is it allowed on here as a response to the postings above?)

 

[david1212]

Wouldn't be anything like that. FPTP distorts the numbers of seats but not to that extent. Even Tony Blair in the 1997 landslide only got 63% of the seats - and that was with Labour being 13% ahead of the Tories in the vote share AND benefitting from a set of boundaries that was biased more in Labour's favour that the Tories.

Based on recent results, I would say that Con 35% Lab 30% in vote share would be most likely to lead to a hung Parliament with the Conservatives having something like 45-48% of the seats in the Commons. Obviously still unfair though.

(By the way your hypothetical vote share numbers add up to 110%, but that doesn't change the reasoning )

Whoops it was late - but no I hadn't been on the booze.

I intentionally pushed the bias of seats vs votes further than what would be likely.

Changing the vote proportion to
Con 33% Lab 27% LibDem 18% Green 12% Other 10%
potentially you have together between LibDem, Green and Other 40% of the votes but no influence on the policies made by the party who received just 33% of the votes.

Even if LibDem won 7% of seats and you had a Con + LibDem coalition they still only represent the choice of 40% of the voters.

 

[Howardh]

The local Tories in dartford appear to be celebrating the opening of a...wait for it...foodbank. Something that should bring shame on a political party, no sir, let's party instead. Let's celebrate local people not being able to afford food from normal shops.

Perhaps the champagne bottle will be cracked open against a warmth bank that the elderly can go to in winter to avoid hypothermia?

https://twitter.com/JonathonHawkes/status/1524144670959411202

The Tory leader of Dartford cutting the ribbon on another foodbank today. The choice for Dartford next year couldn’t be clearer. More foodbanks with the Tories or a Labour administration genuinely committed to supporting residents through the Conservative cost of living crisis.

Includes Picure of local civic dignitaries smiling cutting a ribbon.

 

[ainsworth74]

The local Tories in dartford appear to be celebrating the opening of a...wait for it...foodbank. Something that should bring shame on a political party, no sir, let's party instead. Let's celebrate local people not being able to afford food from normal shops.

I believe they usually try and spin it as as positive as it's a demonstration of how charitable and supportive the average Brit is of their fellows. Ignoring the massive elephant in the room which is that Foodbanks shouldn't be a growth industry.

 

[Howardh]

I believe they usually try and spin it as as positive as it's a demonstration of how charitable and supportive the average Brit is of their fellows. Ignoring the massive elephant in the room which is that Foodbanks shouldn't be a growth industry.

Indeed, praise for the locals who have set it up, and more than a kick in the pants for any ruling party that means to has to happen.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The local Tories in dartford appear to be celebrating the opening of a...wait for it...foodbank. Something that should bring shame on a political party, no sir, let's party instead. Let's celebrate local people not being able to afford food from normal shops.

Eh? It's certainly a shame that foodbanks are needed - in an ideal world, it would be better if they weren't. But given that they are needed, what on Earth is the problem with having an opening ceremony to open one?

Includes Picure of local civic dignitaries smiling cutting a ribbon.

And the problem with that is....? Would it be better if they looked really angry while they were cutting the ribbon? Or if they refused to support the foodbank by attending at all?

 

[kristiang85]

Did anybody see Gove this morning? Quite disgraceful really, seemingly taking the mickey given the many problems people are facing.

 

[Howardh]

Eh? It's certainly a shame that foodbanks are needed - in an ideal world, it would be better if they weren't. But given that they are needed, what on Earth is the problem with having an opening ceremony to open one?


And the problem with that is....? Would it be better if they looked really angry while they were cutting the ribbon? Or if they refused to support the foodbank by attending at all?

So a government's success is determined by how many people can't afford to shop normally so foodbanks have to be opened??? Really???

YES it would be one hack of a lot better if they opened the shop with shame rather than celebration.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is a positive of foodbanks and similar initiatives like community larders/fridges, anyway - making good use of otherwise waste food - and so even if they were not needed for financial reasons they are in that sense a good thing. So they are not only bad.

We do need to get back to the point where people can afford to live on the minimum wage without the need for charity, though.