What should replace the Class 365 [Great Northern]?

[GtNortherner]

Moderator Note - Posts #1-#13 originally in this thread:

Class 365 withdrawal confirmed [Great Northern] | RailUK Forums (railforums.co.uk)

According to GN’s website, from this May after the 365s go, they’ll be using other stock from within TSGN on GN routes - quote below...

“When we start to reintroduce services to our timetable to meet customer demand in the future, we will use other existing Govia Thameslink Railway trains. This will include part of the Gatwick Express Class 387 fleet while we are undertaking the major upgrade currently underway at Gatwick Airport station.

This means from this summer, you may see red carriages operating as part of Great Northern trains stopping at stations between King’s Cross and Peterborough and King’s Cross and King’s Lynn.”

 

[Fincra5]

According to GN’s website, from this May after the 365s go, they’ll be using other stock from within TSGN on GN routes - quote below...

“When we start to reintroduce services to our timetable to meet customer demand in the future, we will use other existing Govia Thameslink Railway trains. This will include part of the Gatwick Express Class 387 fleet while we are undertaking the major upgrade currently underway at Gatwick Airport station.

This means from this summer, you may see red carriages operating as part of Great Northern trains stopping at stations between King’s Cross and Peterborough and King’s Cross and King’s Lynn.”

Probably still with GX Branding! They haven't really operated any GX services for the last year but are still branded GX ...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Probably still with GX Branding! They haven't really operated any GX services for the last year but are still branded GX ...

I hope so the taxpayer doesn't need to spending any money on vinyl's if they are only temporarily allocated to GN pending arrival of 379s. Mind you I doubt there will ever be a dedicated GX service to Gatwick Airport even if air traffic returns as the airport has a decent provision from the the other GTR brands of Thameslink and Southern so may end up on GN for good.

 

[317 forever]

I hope so the taxpayer doesn't need to spending any money on vinyl's if they are only temporarily allocated to GN pending arrival of 379s. Mind you I doubt there will ever be a dedicated GX service to Gatwick Airport even if air traffic returns as the airport has a decent provision from the the other GTR brands of Thameslink and Southern so may end up on GN for good.

Oh, so the 379s are definitely moving to Great Northern once replaced by class 720s?

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

if they are only temporarily allocated to GN pending arrival of 379s.

Whoa, whoa, where has that come from? I personally have never seen anything to suggest that will happen, frequent as it is suggested in the Speculative Ideas thread

 

[D365]

Oh, so the 379s are definitely moving to Great Northern once replaced by class 720s?

Nicholas Lewis did write ”if they are only temporarily allocated”.

 

[bramling]

Oh, so the 379s are definitely moving to Great Northern once replaced by class 720s?

Don’t think anything has been officially stated. However, it does seem to be getting to the point where the rumours are sufficiently loud that they’re worth listening to.

 

[Energy]

Don’t think anything has been officially stated. However, it does seem to be getting to the point where the rumours are sufficiently loud that they’re worth listening to.

Nothing has been said about it and most posts on this forum about it are just speculative, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it did happen.

 

[Mollman]

Just thinking about it logically, it doesn't make much sense. The DfT (who will no doubt have the say in what gets ordered now) have gone off the Desiro City due to the standing room issues. They can't get hold of Electrostars any more, so that means if a new fleet is ordered to replace them, it'll be a separate microfleet unlike the rest of the units in the area. Exactly what they don't need.

One option would be to order a large fleet of EMUs for Southern suburban services which could replace 455s and displace 377s to to GN (long with replacing 313s on Coastway services).

 

[samuelmorris]

If 379s are repurposed for this, and they can actually be used, then that's not so bad. Ordering new stock just for this though to me seemed wildly inappropriate.

 

[Doomotron]

If 379s are transferred, would they get the TSGN grey/light blue livery like on the 365s, 700s and formerly 317s, or would they keep them in GA livery? Or even the 387 Southern-lite livery?

 

[Fincra5]

If 379s are transferred, would they get the TSGN grey/light blue livery like on the 365s, 700s and formerly 317s, or would they keep them in GA livery? Or even the 387 Southern-lite livery?

That would be down to the DfT, the ones with the purse...

I'd imagine some GN Branding...

 

[Aictos]

One option would be to order a large fleet of EMUs for Southern suburban services which could replace 455s and displace 377s to to GN (long with replacing 313s on Coastway services).

Why transfer a batch of 377s when the GN already operates the Class 387s which can't be used together in passenger service as far as I'm aware? Much better to cascade the GX Class 387s and use a batch of Class 377s for the GX services made available by a new order to cascade the 455s, 313s and 171s.

That way, you have two train types in the GN fleet, Class 387s for the Outer Suburban's and Class 717s for the Metros.

 

[Fincra5]

The strong rumours are 379s to GN as they're AC only. So GN will be 379s and 717s.

387s will head back down South to SN to potentially replace 455s (Yes they is a greater number of 455s but they're not all utilised).

(377/5s loaned to SE come back to SN to replace 313s).

 

[bramling]

Why transfer a batch of 377s when the GN already operates the Class 387s which can't be used together in passenger service as far as I'm aware? Much better to cascade the GX Class 387s and use a batch of Class 377s for the GX services made available by a new order to cascade the 455s, 313s and 171s.

That way, you have two train types in the GN fleet, Class 387s for the Outer Suburban's and Class 717s for the Metros.

One issue is how DC-ready the 379s are. Is anyone able to give a definite answer on this?

 

[Class 466]

My expectation is 379 to GN to release most of the 387/1s and 387/2s &/3s back to SNGX. 387/1s & 387/3s then replace 313s as I think they’re higher up on the list for replacement than 455s.

The additional number of 387s vice 313s would then allow for the 1H & 1F to stay as separate services post Gatwick rebuild and free up 377s for the ElectroFlex work. (This is how I’d do it anyway, probably nowhere near what is actually planned to happen).

 

[bramling]

My expectation is 379 to GN to release most of the 387/1s and 387/2s &/3s back to SNGX. 387/1s & 387/3s then replace 313s as I think they’re higher up on the list for replacement than 455s.

The additional number of 387s vice 313s would then allow for the 1H & 1F to stay as separate services post Gatwick rebuild and free up 377s for the ElectroFlex work. (This is how I’d do it anyway, probably nowhere near what is actually planned to happen).

I must admit I still don’t really get the value in replacing the 365s. They must surely be cheapest of the cheap to lease, and have the benefit of offering more seats than a 387, which is valuable given they are used on commuter services.

This does seem like a bit of a “knee jerk” action, when the bigger prize is surely finding a way to bin the DC 313s and 455s. There doesn’t seem to be any obvious way to achieve this without a new build, which surely would be hard to justify at the moment.

It is increasingly unlikely the 365s will find work elsewhere, both due to the Covid situation, and the length of time some of the fleet has now been stored.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

My expectation is 379 to GN to release most of the 387/1s and 387/2s &/3s back to SNGX. 387/1s & 387/3s then replace 313s as I think they’re higher up on the list for replacement than 455s.

I’d heard replacing the 455s was higher up the list than 313s, yes they are slightly younger but apparently in poorer overall condition?

 

[JonathanH]

One option would be to order a large fleet of EMUs for Southern suburban services which could replace 455s and displace 377s to to GN (long with replacing 313s on Coastway services).

No need. A contraction of 20% in the Southern fleet eliminates 313s and 455s without any need for additional rolling stock. That ought to be easily achievable with the reduction in demand and ought to be what the DfT is asking TSGN to implement.

 

[Energy]

No need. A contraction of 20% in the Southern fleet eliminates 313s and 455s without any need for additional rolling stock. That ought to be easily achievable with the reduction in demand and ought to be what the DfT is asking TSGN to implement.

What happens when demand will return? 20% is a lot, electrostars also have the problem of not being in production anymore, you can't just order some new ones when demand does come back and I doubt Southern want a seperate fleet. To me, 379s cascading most 387s to Southern and 377s at SE getting cascaded when their new metro fleet comes (and ordered at some point...) to replace the 313s and 455s makes the most sense. Worth remembering that the 379s aren't available yet and will likely be the last to go from GA while SE doesn't have a new order of trains yet, it could be a few years....

 

[bramling]

What happens when demand will return? 20% is a lot, electrostars also have the problem of not being in production anymore, you can't just order some new ones when demand does come back and I doubt Southern want a seperate fleet. To me, 379s cascading most 387s to Southern and 377s at SE getting cascaded when their new metro fleet comes (and ordered at some point...) to replace the 313s and 455s makes the most sense. Worth remembering that the 379s aren't available yet and will likely be the last to go from GA while SE doesn't have a new order of trains yet, it could be a few years....

This is what makes most sense to me. 379s to GN displacing the 387/1s, then chuck every Electrostar possible at Southern to ultimately displace the 313 and 455 fleets.

The Southeastern 377s could be replaced by the Networkers made surplus by the 707s.

However, to me, the numbers don’t quite add up to do all this *and* replace the GN 365s, at any rate not without a quite hefty sustained reduction of the Baldock and Peterborough peak extras. Whether that is possible depends very much on whether commuter numbers return.

 

[Energy]

However, to me, the numbers don’t quite add up to do all this *and* replace the GN 365s, at any rate not without a quite hefty sustained reduction of the Baldock and Peterborough peak extras. Whether that is possible depends very much on whether commuter numbers return.

The 365s have low utilisation, you also don't need to transfer all the 387s, the 455s had pretty low utilisation.

 

[bramling]

The 365s have low utilisation, you also don't need to transfer all the 387s, the 455s had pretty low utilisation.

I still don’t think the numbers add up. It’s a fair bet that the London inner suburban traffic will bounce back quicker than Home Counties stuff, so I’m not sure a slimming down will be possible there. Ditto the Coastway where most of 313s are out all day.

The 365s might have been low utilisation, but there’s only so much which can be squeezed out of the GN Electrostar fleet. If you require X number of services running towards London at the same time then this will require a certain number of units, no matter how efficiently or tightly diagrammed the fleet is. Of course they maybe able to achieve this with a combination of some services never returning, length reductions across the board, and tighter diagramming. Notice how the February and May GN timetables have crucified 12-car running.

 

[swt_passenger]

What happens to the ex-c2c 387s that were mentioned as possible transfers to the GN?

Also, why does it always seem to be assumed that the 377/5s that went to Southeastern are some sort of loan, and will be returned?

 

[Minstral25]

I think that once you add in the six 387's at C2C to GN's fleet, then you have 35 Class 387's at Great Northern. Cutting some of the Peak Only services as is likely after Covid plus program a couple of 700's released from Thameslink post-Covid reductions to their Peak services you will probably have just the right number of trains for post covid GN/Thameslink services on the East Coast and Fen lines.

Then the 29 Class 379's get a battery pack upgrade with third rail shoes and take over Uckfield and Marshlink lines as the 171's head to East Midlands. There are 20 171's which have 56 23' cars. The 379's are 20' cars which means you need roughly 15 or 16 units to replace the 171's at a similar length. That leaves 13 spare units which could probably take over the Class 313 duties?

 

[Fincra5]

The 365s have low utilisation, you also don't need to transfer all the 387s, the 455s had pretty low utilisation.

Thats the thing, even before Covid the 455s had a low utilisation, sure there are 46 of them but they're not all in service.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Mar 2021 ==

I think that once you add in the six 387's at C2C to GN's fleet, then you have 35 Class 387's at Great Northern. Cutting some of the Peak Only services as is likely after Covid plus program a couple of 700's released from Thameslink post-Covid reductions to their Peak services you will probably have just the right number of trains for post covid GN/Thameslink services on the East Coast and Fen lines.

Then the 29 Class 379's get a battery pack upgrade with third rail shoes and take over Uckfield and Marshlink lines as the 171's head to East Midlands. There are 20 171's which have 56 23' cars. The 379's are 20' cars which means you need roughly 15 or 16 units to replace the 171's at a similar length. That leaves 13 spare units which could probably take over the Class 313 duties?

Wouldn't bother with 379s south of the river. They're AC only. Its easier to send units that are already AC/DC down...

 

[Domh245]

Also, why does it always seem to be assumed that the 377/5s that went to Southeastern are some sort of loan, and will be returned?

Because they're leased from the TSGN operator than directly from porterbrook (as are the pair of 377/1s that went over)

extract from the EMA for Southeastern

Thats the thing, even before Covid the 455s had a low utilisation, sure there are 46 of them but they're not all in service.

I think last time I looked at diagrams for them, it was still a surprisingly high utilisation for them - the December 2019 diagrams I can find suggests up to 42 diagrams Monday-Friday

 

[JonathanH]

Thats the thing, even before Covid the 455s had a low utilisation, sure there are 46 of them but they're not all in service.

Where does this idea about low utilisation of 455s come from? There were at least 40 weekday diagrams for them prior to Covid, most of which were formed as 8-car all day. There *was* some speculation that there would be lower utilisation in the May 2018 timetable and I think GTR even announced this but in the end it didn't happen, presumably because it wasn't possible to increase utilisation of 377s to eliminate the 455s.

They work almost all services from London Bridge via Tulse Hill to Beckenham Junction and Caterham and Victoria to Epsom Downs via Crystal Palace. They also work off-peak London Bridge to Coulsdon South services. In the peak, these are switched to work London Bridge to Sutton via Tulse Hill services. There are a few others used on other routes to position them.

That is not to say that their use could not be eliminated by better matching capacity to the 377 fleet in the light of the significant expected downturn in rail use.

 

[Energy]

Because they're leased from the TSGN operator than directly from porterbrook (as are the pair of 377/1s that went over)

extract from the EMA for Southeastern

They also already have Southern interior and were ordered by Southern originally on loan to Thameslink.

Then the 29 Class 379's get a battery pack upgrade with third rail shoes and take over Uckfield and Marshlink lines as the 171's head to East Midlands. There are 20 171's which have 56 23' cars. The 379's are 20' cars which means you need roughly 15 or 16 units to replace the 171's at a similar length. That leaves 13 spare units which could probably take over the Class 313 duties?

Converting 379s to DC wouldn't be insurmountable but is work, thats why most suggestions on here are cascading 387s from GN using the 379s as the 387s can also run on DC.

 

[Aictos]

Where does this idea about low utilisation of 455s come from? There were at least 40 weekday diagrams for them prior to Covid, most of which were formed as 8-car all day. There *was* some speculation that there would be lower utilisation in the May 2018 timetable and I think GTR even announced this but in the end it didn't happen, presumably because it wasn't possible to increase utilisation of 377s to eliminate the 455s.

They work almost all services from London Bridge via Tulse Hill to Beckenham Junction and Caterham and Victoria to Epsom Downs via Crystal Palace. They also work off-peak London Bridge to Coulsdon South services. In the peak, these are switched to work London Bridge to Sutton via Tulse Hill services. There are a few others used on other routes to position them.

That is not to say that their use could not be eliminated by better matching capacity to the 377 fleet in the light of the significant expected downturn in rail use.

As I've said many times prior as the Southern Class 455 fleet are diagrammed to form mostly 8 car services, why not order 26 Class 700s in 8 car formations which would be enough to scrap the entire Class 455 fleet and operate ex Class 455 services as 8 cars permanently with upgrades such as WiFi, power sockets and maybe most important toilets.