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What now for HS2

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fishwomp

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Hard to see Manchester link or East Mids continuing with current timeline. Postponing to a future government means planning blight, but the upside amongst voters and financial markets for a more frugal government may win out - and this government just doesn't need to make that decision for a line not scheduled to open before 2030. Let the incoming future Labour govt take Burnham's ire!..

Any chance of existing rolling stock on HS2? 140mph Pendolino on a lower-than-capacity route may not eat too many paths (extra 10-15 mins to Brum?).. or even for the whole service and no new stock for a few extra years.. With tilt north of Preston it could be a win for the overall schedule to Scotland. Again, just as a 'deferral' of the original plan, officially..
 
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The Ham

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Hard to see Manchester link or East Mids continuing with current timeline. Postponing to a future government means planning blight, but the upside amongst voters and financial markets for a more frugal government may win out - and this government just doesn't need to make that decision for a line not scheduled to open before 2030. Let the incoming future Labour govt take Burnham's ire!..

Any chance of existing rolling stock on HS2? 140mph Pendolino on a lower-than-capacity route may not eat too many paths (extra 10-15 mins to Brum?).. or even for the whole service and no new stock for a few extra years.. With tilt north of Preston it could be a win for the overall schedule to Scotland. Again, just as a 'deferral' of the original plan, officially..

Pendolinos to Scotland (at least in the short term) would require an extra path(s) on the HS2 rails, however with the scaling back of the Eastern Leg and capacity at Euston due to reducing the number of platforms that may not be impossible to achieve.

Of course if everything was going ahead then that might make it harder to justify their use.
 

Irascible

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If HS2 hadn't been started, then yes it would be vulnerable, but with the current Tory government heavily reliant on Northern Red Wall seats, it would be awful politics to cancel the sections (Manchester, East Midlands) not authorised yet, especially as the spending will be in the future anyway

Given the Tiverton by-election and the general mood down here, there's more to worry about than Red Wall. I don't think there's enough cash to buy off everyone everywhere.
 

Arkeeos

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depends who gets in, If someone on the extreme of the party gets in It absolutely could be cancelled completely, no matter what the cost is.

But if a Johnson cabinet member gets it should be OK in its current state, maybe slightly better since Johnson was anti-hs2.

If a moderate gets in its definitely safe and might have some parts restored.
 

Chester1

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Given the Tiverton by-election and the general mood down here, there's more to worry about than Red Wall. I don't think there's enough cash to buy off everyone everywhere.

Northern seats made up about 80 of the 365 seats won by the Tories in 2019. Depending on the definition red wall, it accounts for nearly half the Conservative northern seats. They can't afford to conceed either the former red wall or southern marginal seats. They will do their best to keep both and hope combined losses across the country don't put them below 325. HS2 phase 1 and 2a is not under any real threat. The remainder of phase 2b isn't this side of an election.
 

fishwomp

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iNorthern seats made up about 80 of the 365 seats won by the Tories in 2019. Depending on the definition red wall, it accounts for nearly half the Conservative northern seats. They can't afford to conceed either the former red wall or southern marginal seats. They will do their best to keep both and hope combined losses across the country don't put them below 325. HS2 phase 1 and 2a is not under any real threat. The remainder of phase 2b isn't this side of an election.
Southern marginal seats likely are against HS2...

Seats in the North depend on where: there is no benefit to the North East and Yorkshire in current plans.

Given HS2 has so few intermediate stops - many constituencies on the committed phases will get the disruption of construction but no upside.

So, electorally, Manchester and Birmingham would be the places to worry about voters - but netted off against positive reaction elsewhere.
 

The Ham

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Southern marginal seats likely are against HS2...

Seats in the North depend on where: there is no benefit to the North East and Yorkshire in current plans.

Given HS2 has so few intermediate stops - many constituencies on the committed phases will get the disruption of construction but no upside.

So, electorally, Manchester and Birmingham would be the places to worry about voters - but netted off against positive reaction elsewhere.

Most of those seats where there's significant anti HS2 numbers are those in the route, a lot of work has been started and so any cancellation of the scheme isn't going to impact them directly. Whilst there could be those who would favour HS2 money being used for other things, the sight of abandoned infrastructure works isn't going to sit well (even if it was significantly cheaper to cancel now).

That then means that it becomes a North/South issue, and given that many of the arguments against have been saying "if you're going to do this then start building in the North" then for those same people to say "cancel only the northern section" is going to look bad.

Cancelling HS2 on its own isn't going to make many people vote Tory in the South over the Lib Dems, and anyway local MP's can say what they like on the matter and even vote against it as there's cross party support for it.

In the North, even in the Northeast, any further scaling back may just strengthen the view that it was never for them and that any other infrastructure promised will be cut before it does any good.

IF there's a scheme which could deliver rail enhancements to the North using HS2 funding that might work well in the North. The problem is that the last time that was tried, it didn't go overly well.
 

Mogz

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I have often wondered what the cost/benefit would be if the HS2 line was engineered as a standard speed Birmingham- London commuter line with stations along the route serving the populations that they are ploughing through, many of which (South of Brackley) had stations on the GCR which closed.

Interchange with East-West Rail would also be a possibility in this instance.

Would that be of greater benefit to the country than a line which basically just serves Birmingham and London (initially at least)?
 

Peter Sarf

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Southern marginal seats likely are against HS2...

Seats in the North depend on where: there is no benefit to the North East and Yorkshire in current plans.

Given HS2 has so few intermediate stops - many constituencies on the committed phases will get the disruption of construction but no upside.

So, electorally, Manchester and Birmingham would be the places to worry about voters - but netted off against positive reaction elsewhere.
But there is a benefit to the electorate along the South WCML that HS2 does not serve. There will be more paths on the WCML for services stopping at places like Tamworth and Rugby etc bound for London.
I have often wondered what the cost/benefit would be if the HS2 line was engineered as a standard speed Birmingham- London commuter line with stations along the route serving the populations that they are ploughing through, many of which (South of Brackley) had stations on the GCR which closed.

Interchange with East-West Rail would also be a possibility in this instance.

Would that be of greater benefit to the country than a line which basically just serves Birmingham and London (initially at least)?
The point of HS2 is a high speed line removing the faster trains off the WCML. Many of the places that HS2 goes through are small enough that they do not justify a service. This is not about building another line to London but this is about building a high speed network in the UK that competes with non-rail modes. It then frees up capacity on the overcrowded South WCML.

As for the Great Central route, that came along late enough that most conurbations and cities had already developed around the older slower lines. Big exception is Metroland maybe but that is close to London and was regardless of the Great Central route.

I also suspect that the political damage in those areas where HS2 is being built has already been done as the development has proceeded far enough.
 
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Bletchleyite

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But there is a benefit to the electorate along the South WCML that HS2 does not serve. There will be more paths on the WCML for services stopping at places like Tamworth and Rugby etc bound for London.

Certainly pre COVID the benefit to the south WCML was the biggest benefit of all. With reduced commuting it's less significant, but it's still there.
 

Peter Sarf

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Certainly pre COVID the benefit to the south WCML was the biggest benefit of all. With reduced commuting it's less significant, but it's still there.
The only question is how quickly or at all the level of commuting returns to Pre Covid levels. The impression I get is most people do not want to commute, have (since Covid) seen the alternatives and are determined to cling on to those alternatives. I have seen letters to relatives from their employers that they must work at the office for 60% of the week. I helped one propose doing 60% over two days and the rest over 3 days at home (well 2 then !). Answer was NO.

One question are is the levels of travelling on the WCML already higher than they were before the decision to go ahead with HS" was made ?. I think quite likely yes.
 

nick.c

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I have often wondered what the cost/benefit would be if the HS2 line was engineered as a standard speed Birmingham- London commuter line with stations along the route serving the populations that they are ploughing through, many of which (South of Brackley) had stations on the GCR which closed.
If my memory serves me correctly – HS2 calculated that a new standard 125mph line would wash it's face financially. However, building to a 225mph standard would increase the cost by around 10% whilst increasing revenues by more than 30%.
 

Sonik

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If my memory serves me correctly – HS2 calculated that a new standard 125mph line would wash it's face financially. However, building to a 225mph standard would increase the cost by around 10% whilst increasing revenues by more than 30%.
True, but the numbers are all made up anyway. In the case of the 2b business case, adjusted to suit the agenda.

Hardly using data to make good decisions.
 

Citybreak1

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My concern is why does HS1 not link up with HS1? I know we had regional Eurostars a while back but surely the high speed line could be linked to Europe? For me coming from Scotland saving 30 mins is nothing why would i take HS2 to London to have to catch a train to St Pancras?
 

deltic

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My concern is why does HS1 not link up with HS1? I know we had regional Eurostars a while back but surely the high speed line could be linked to Europe? For me coming from Scotland saving 30 mins is nothing why would i take HS2 to London to have to catch a train to St Pancras?
Because our immigration and customs rules means that you are not allowed to carry domestic and international passengers on the same train so the economics don't stack up. If you could have run a two hourly train from Birmingham to Paris that was allowed to pick up and set down at Old Oak Common then it could possibly have worked. But you could not generate enough passengers for a Birmingham to Paris service more than once or twice a day.
 

Citybreak1

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Because our immigration and customs rules means that you are not allowed to carry domestic and international passengers on the same train so the economics don't stack up. If you could have run a two hourly train from Birmingham to Paris that was allowed to pick up and set down at Old Oak Common then it could possibly have worked. But you could not generate enough passengers for a Birmingham to Paris service more than once or twice a day.
Ok but why was HS2 not built on the east coast line? For the north little benefit to save 30 mins I regularly travel to Europe so the time it takes to switch on a subway no saving over East coast line. Sure there’s plenty from the north to go London but that’s the only benefit.
 

Speed43125

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Ok but why was HS2 not built on the east coast line? For the north little benefit to save 30 mins I regularly travel to Europe so the time it takes to switch on a subway no saving over East coast line. Sure there’s plenty from the north to go London but that’s the only benefit.
Because it was conceived to alleviate traffic on the WCML, services to Birmingham are an integral part of its operation. Where on the south ECML are there significant traffic generators to justify such an expensive new line?
 

Mikey C

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It's only a short walk from Euston (HS2 station) to St Pancras (HS1 station) anyway.
 

swt_passenger

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My concern is why does HS1 not link up with HS1? I know we had regional Eurostars a while back but surely the high speed line could be linked to Europe? For me coming from Scotland saving 30 mins is nothing why would i take HS2 to London to have to catch a train to St Pancras?
But regional Eurostars never actually operated, because there was believed to be no demand following airline changes. There’s no HS2 to HS1 connection because they still found minimal demand for through travel. There’s also no HS2 branch to Heathrow because it was determined to be not enough demand.
 

Bald Rick

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Ok but why was HS2 not built on the east coast line? For the north little benefit to save 30 mins I regularly travel to Europe so the time it takes to switch on a subway no saving over East coast line. Sure there’s plenty from the north to go London but that’s the only benefit.

if you are travelling from Scotland to London, you’ll be almost certainly using HS2 whether you want to or not!
 

MattRat

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But regional Eurostars never actually operated, because there was believed to be no demand following airline changes. There’s no HS2 to HS1 connection because they still found minimal demand for through travel. There’s also no HS2 branch to Heathrow because it was determined to be not enough demand.
Actually it was based on current demand. Because no one thinks ahead in this country, and invests in potential.
 

Shrop

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It's only a short walk from Euston (HS2 station) to St Pancras (HS1 station) anyway.
Tell this to folk who are unfamiliar with the route and who are carrying luggage. For years and years, the powers that be haven't even provided any indication of the direction between Euston and St Pancras, even though it could be done remarkably cheaply with paint and signs. Those who are familiar with the route perhaps ought not to comment unless they're genuinely capable of understanding the needs of those with luggage, who don't know the area.
 

Bletchleyite

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Tell this to folk who are unfamiliar with the route and who are carrying luggage. For years and years, the powers that be haven't even provided any indication of the direction between Euston and St Pancras, even though it could be done remarkably cheaply with paint and signs. Those who are familiar with the route perhaps ought not to comment unless they're genuinely capable of understanding the needs of those with luggage, who don't know the area.

There are signs. And who in 2022 doesn't have Google or Apple Maps?
 

cle

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Tell this to folk who are unfamiliar with the route and who are carrying luggage. For years and years, the powers that be haven't even provided any indication of the direction between Euston and St Pancras, even though it could be done remarkably cheaply with paint and signs. Those who are familiar with the route perhaps ought not to comment unless they're genuinely capable of understanding the needs of those with luggage, who don't know the area.
Maybe some people shouldn't leave the house. It's hardly complex navigation. Exit the station, walk to the main road, turn left.

It's also 2 mins in a cab or tons of buses. And a single stop on a few tube lines too. No excuses. And folks' luggage is their own problem, who forced you to pack more stuff than you can wield.

Most people go to, Paris, for instance, for a long weekend or for a business trip - and those people these days have hand luggage-sized rollers. Or younger people have backpacks and are capable in the world. No big deal either.
 

plugwash

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There are signs.
Unfortunately whoever installed those signs seems to have been limited in what they attatched them to (they are all attatched to lampposts). For a signposted route to be useful the signs need to be at or before the junction, not down the side road 25m from the pavement the person will likely be walking on.

It's really frustrating, one more sign, bolted to the side of Euston station and it would be a usefully signposted route, as it is it's not.
 
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daodao

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There is local delight, reported in the Tory's latest newsletter for the Bowdon, Dunham Massey and Warburton ward, that the Golborne spur has been shelved. Sir Graham Brady, the local MP, stated that:

I am absolutely delighted that the Government has now formally confirmed its intention to scrap the Golborne link.
 

A0

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I have often wondered what the cost/benefit would be if the HS2 line was engineered as a standard speed Birmingham- London commuter line with stations along the route serving the populations that they are ploughing through, many of which (South of Brackley) had stations on the GCR which closed.

Let's look at the stations between Aylesbury and Brackley and their current populations:

Quainton Road - current population of Quainton ~ 1300.
Calvert - current population < 1,000
Finmere - current population < 500
Brackley - current population ~13,000

So basically a few hamlets and a large village / small town.

Even if you head north from Brackley up to Rugby the picture is no better:

Helmdon - current population <1,000
Culworth - Moreton Pinkney current population < 500
Woodford Halse - current population ~ 3,500
Charwelton - current population 220
Braunstone & Willoughby - Braunstone ~ 2,000, Willoughby 398

The only way that stations could be justified would be with *massive* amounts of additional housebuilding - which would be widely opposed.

Brackley is just about the only place a station could be considered.
 

quantinghome

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Ok but why was HS2 not built on the east coast line? For the north little benefit to save 30 mins I regularly travel to Europe so the time it takes to switch on a subway no saving over East coast line. Sure there’s plenty from the north to go London but that’s the only benefit.
Various high level options were considered prior to the adoption of the current plan for HS2, including an east coast route.

The advantage of HS2's Y-shaped network (before the eastern leg was cut) is that it connects the North-east, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, the East Midlands and Birmingham. So not only would you have got 50 minutes knocked off the Leeds-London journey, but also properly connected loads of cities that currently have a very slow, infrequent and undercapacity intercity service between them.
 

Shrop

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Ok but why was HS2 not built on the east coast line? For the north little benefit to save 30 mins I regularly travel to Europe so the time it takes to switch on a subway no saving over East coast line. Sure there’s plenty from the north to go London but that’s the only benefit.

Various high level options were considered prior to the adoption of the current plan for HS2, including an east coast route.

The advantage of HS2's Y-shaped network (before the eastern leg was cut) is that it connects the North-east, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, the East Midlands and Birmingham. So not only would you have got 50 minutes knocked off the Leeds-London journey, but also properly connected loads of cities that currently have a very slow, infrequent and undercapacity intercity service between them.

This is precisely why HS2 is such a poor project. One of its main selling points was to level up the country by providing greater power to the north, ie by linking Birmingham with Sheffield and Leeds. Many people were doing their utmost to make sure that this northern part of HS2 took priority, building it first, because it would knock around 70 minutes off Leeds to Birmingham (not just 50 minutes as indicated above), whereas the southern section would only ever knock 30 minutes at most, off Birmingham to London. Giving priority to the northern section would be levelling up, but as always, "those who know best" chose to build the southern section first, despite the massive controversy over ploughing up the Chilterns without even providing any service for anywhere that was blighted by doing so.

Sadly, what was foreseen by many, was that Government would authorise yet another London-centric service, and then run out of money, leading to shelving of the northern section. Lo and behold, along comes Grant Shapps a few months ago with his completely predictable announcement that the Eastern leg (ie Birmingham to Leeds) was to be shelved. Ah but, he said, there would be a replacement project that would be every bit as good, and have many other benefits. You might like to ask how that's going, because it appears for all the world that this was a total whitewash, and there never really was any intention of building anything to level up the north. I wish I was wrong about this, but all the evidence appears that my cynicism is correct.

Even worse, the Chiltern route never was about finding the best route to the north. It's patently obvious that no-one in their right mind would build a route to Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds by heading due west out of London, but it was all about serving Heathrow. Just look back at Boris's priorities when he was Mayor of London. Another horribly predictable eventuality was that the Heathrow imperative was downgraded too, but not until it had become too embarrassing for those in charge to change the route. So instead they dreamed up the scapegoat imperative of benefitting Crossrail.

So the answer to the question about the east coast route is not that HS2 should have taken the ECML route, but the M1 corridor. The M1 corridor was investigated, but it was dismissed far too easily, with poorly judged criteria.
 
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