What is wrong with CrossCountry?

[1e10]

Does anyone know roughly the exact date the current XC contract is set to expire?

 

[Class172]

Have a look at these links:

9 November 2019
Rail Franchise Schedule
List of companies operating trains in the United Kingdom

 

[SussexSpotter]

Does anyone know roughly the exact date the current XC contract is set to expire?

Nov 2019!

 

[1e10]

Nov 2019!

How likely would you guys say it is of AXC losing the franchise in 2019?

 

[Simon11]

Well just as much as virgin and FGW losing their franchises....

 

[SussexSpotter]

How likely would you guys say it is of AXC losing the franchise in 2019?

Well.....I think it all depends on who the other bidders are but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Arriva lost it....

 

[TheWalrus]

It's more down to the dft than the franchisee there's not much XC can do!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

XC has the highest subsidy of all the long-distance TOCs.
They are also underperforming against the revenue profile and are in maximum revenue support.
That means neither Arriva nor DfT want to invest in the service.

Salvation was at hand when VT planned to replace their Voyagers in the failed WCML franchise bid last year. This would have freed up 21x221s by 2016 for the next XC franchise.
We currently don't know how the franchise extension negotiations are going.
If VT aren't going to get new electric stock then XC are stuck with what they've got.
XC also now has the prospect of an extension to 2019, but negotiations haven't started as the current deal runs to 2016 (which is also the date all the Voyager leases run out).

If they charge high fares and the trains are packed, how come they make a loss? The foregoing posts just don't seem to match with your sentence: -

'They are also underperforming against the revenue profile and are in maximum revenue support.'

They must have submitted a revenue plan to have been awarded the franchise originally.

Quite. It makes no sense!

 

[D1009]

- Vestibule stank (like, more than normal) of cleaning fluid and festering sewage because (point 2)
- THE HEATING WAS ON IN THE VESTIBULE. The F*?

Point 1. I commuted daily on Voyagers for six years between Bristol Parkway and Birmingham, I always got a seat, and because on the way back I had usually had a few beers, I usually needed the toilet. Unless you have a deep seated hatred of Voyagers and a very keen sense of smell, the smell is not normally a problem. What is a problem is the toilets' ability to lock themselves out of use, and the fact that some of the TMs can't be bothered to investigate whether this is because of a genuine problem or not.
Point 2. The vestibules are not air conditioned, and during the current weather it feels as though the heat is on in the vestibules because the air con is so good in the saloons.

 

[43074]

Nov 2019!

God knows why they have an extension like that. That's 43 months! And their service is not even that good. Some of their staff are very good, but the 170s are in an awful state, and the Voyagers aren't too bad, but are in desperate need of a heavy clean and their repulsive toilet smells need eliminating.

On the plus side though, it secures the future of the XC HSTs (the refurbishment of which was superb IMO) for another 43 months at least! (unless of course the replacement of the HSTs is in the terms of the extension).

 

[Goatboy]

If they charge high fares and the trains are packed, how come they make a loss?

Because the trains are packed because they are very small, not because they have loads and loads of fare paying passengers on them.

 

[Lampshade]

If they charge high fares and the trains are packed, how come they make a loss?

There's just not enough capacity for the service to be profitable. XC obviously based their business plan on every train being jam packed full of end to end passengers, whereas in reality most XC passengers only travel three or four stops on flows with at least one other TOC.

The only way XC can claw it back is through sky high fares, hence the (in)famous Newquay - Kyle of Lochalsh fare of over £1000 a few years ago, or the elusive bottom tier of Advance tickets. No remotely savvy rail user pays these fares, and by splitting most of the money goes to the local TOC rather than XC.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If they charge high fares and the trains are packed, how come they make a loss? The foregoing posts just don't seem to match with your sentence: -
'They are also underperforming against the revenue profile and are in maximum revenue support.'
They must have submitted a revenue plan to have been awarded the franchise originally.

Yes, and they are failing to meet it.
Packed (small) trains full of people on short journeys at relatively low fares does not help.
XC does not have the volume of regular full-fare London-based business that keeps VT, EC and GW in good shape, but it does have high costs.

Of the three Arriva franchises, only ATW is in good shape, because they were not aggressive on revenue targets and it has a lower cost base.
I believe XC and Chiltern are performing better than they were a couple of years ago, but are still not back to where they were supposed to be.

 

[SussexSpotter]

There's just not enough capacity for the service to be profitable. XC obviously based their business plan on every train being jam packed full of end to end passengers, whereas in reality most XC passengers only travel three or four stops on flows with at least one other TOC.

Well no wonder the franchise is in such a mess then.....surely they would have known that not every passenger would be making an end to end journey????.....:roll:

The only way XC can claw it back is through sky high fares, hence the (in)famous Newquay - Kyle of Lochalsh fare of over £1000 a few years ago, or the elusive bottom tier of Advance tickets. No remotely savvy rail user pays these fares, and by splitting most of the money goes to the local TOC rather than XC.

All that does is fuel the argument for bringing back a nationalised railway!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Yes, and they are failing to meet it.
Packed (small) trains full of people on short journeys at relatively low fares does not help.
XC does not have the volume of regular full-fare London-based business that keeps VT, EC and GW in good shape, but it does have high costs.

Of the three Arriva franchises, only ATW is in good shape, because they were not aggressive on revenue targets and it has a lower cost base.
I believe XC and Chiltern are performing better than they were a couple of years ago, but are still not back to where they were supposed to be.

I reckon part of the problem with the profitability of the XC franchise is that some of the longer distance demand for the services is ''very seasonal'' indeed. I mean who is going to travel from Stockport to Bournemouth in November and spend a day on the sandy beach???? .....Stoke-On-Trent to Paignton in January......or York to Penzance in February.....???? very few, probably nobody. I expect a lot of business XC probably makes in the longer distance fares comes from those heading down south for a holiday.....but then again that is entirley dependent on the weather. I wouldn't be at all surprised if most of these seaside services are carrying more air than passengers in the Autumn, Winter and Spring....and anybody using them is as you say people making short journey's only a few stops, which the local TOC would otherwise be picking up. Perhaps XC should only serve some of these seaside locations when they know demand is at its peak, like they do with Newquay????

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

How likely would you guys say it is of AXC losing the franchise in 2019?

The current franchise expires in March 2016.
Arriva will be offered the extension to 2019 but this does not mean it will be just the current franchise setup for another 3 years.
The DfT can change what it likes for the extension period.
Several different scenarios will be up for negotiation.
I expect cutting services back to a more compact core may be one of them.
But Arriva has to live with the current terms for the best part of another 3 years.

 

[Drsatan]

I reckon part of the problem with the profitability of the XC franchise is that some of the longer distance demand for the services is ''very seasonal'' indeed. I mean who is going to travel from Stockport to Bournemouth in November and spend a day on the sandy beach???? .....Stoke-On-Trent to Paignton in January......or York to Penzance in February.....???? very few, probably nobody. I expect a lot of business XC probably makes in the longer distance fares comes from those heading down south for a holiday.....but then again that is entirley dependent on the weather. I wouldn't be at all surprised if most of these seaside services are carrying more air than passengers in the Autumn, Winter and Spring....and anybody using them is as you say people making short journey's only a few stops, which the local TOC would otherwise be picking up. Perhaps XC should only serve some of these seaside locations when they know demand is at its peak, like they do with Newquay????

I imagine the reason why XC serve peripheral destinations outside of the summer (like Paignton and Penzance) is because of the franchise specification. I don't have a copy of the XC franchise specification to hand but I can imagine it specifies that XC must serve Penzance and Paignton all year round.

As you've said, XC is used for local journeys. The last time I traveled on the 0940 service from Penzance to Manchester Piccadilly it got rather busy with passengers traveling to Plymouth and to and from other stations in Cornwall.

 

[ainsworth74]

I don't have a copy of the XC franchise specification to hand but I can imagine it specifies that XC must serve Penzance and Paignton all year round.

The XC service commitment can be found here.

 

[SussexSpotter]

I imagine the reason why XC serve peripheral destinations outside of the summer (like Paignton and Penzance) is because of the franchise specification. I don't have a copy of the XC franchise specification to hand but I can imagine it specifies that XC must serve Penzance and Paignton all year round.

Then I think its all down to the Dft then, and it's up to them to get to grips with the franchise and sort it out.....

If the Dft can chop important destinations like Gatwick Airport and Brighton from the XC franchise to free up voyagers for the core area, then cutting out places like Penzance and Paignton from an all year round service would hardly be the end of the world......After all the core area needs to be where the focus is if they want to make the franchise more profitable and make more spare voyagers available to strengthen the core.

 

[The Planner]

What/who is going to serve the stations you chop out?

 

[SussexSpotter]

What/who is going to serve the stations you chop out?

Well I would have thought that the GW franchise holder seeing as they are the local TOC.....no doubt this will probably start up the old debate about where's the diesel stock going to come from....well the Dft would have to work that one out I think.....bringing back GW loco hauled for some of the services might be an option.

It's just if the XC franchise is running at a loss which others have pointed out, and that is leading to sky rocketing fares, they can't get more stock to reduce the crowding in the core....and you have the situation where XC are serving stations in Cornwall all year round....some that could probably get away with a seasonal service.....it just makes sense to transfer greater responsibility to the GW franchise holder, a franchise which is in better shape than XC.....

 

[HSTEd]

These XC services take the role of local services in these areas as well.

So where do the new local units to support those routes come from?

 

[Jeni]

The XC service commitment can be found here.

Have I misunderstood or are they not fulfilling this obligation?

3.2 One service shall be provided between Manchester Piccadilly and Newquay and from Newquay to Manchester Piccadilly calling as specified in Paragraph 1.3(c). These services may operate as additional services or as an extension to services specified in Paragraph 2.1 and Paragraph 2.4.

 

[SussexSpotter]

These XC services take the role of local services in these areas as well.

So where do the new local units to support those routes come from?

As i've said....Dft would have to work it out, loco hauled might be an option.

 

[The Planner]

It does make me chuckle the way that loco hauled is the only solution to any problem these days.

 

[tbtc]

Once the gaps between Manchester and Bournemouth are electrified, you'll have a dozen spare Voyagers (more if you run more Manchester - Reading/Southampton services and Newcastle - Bristol services instead of some Newcastle - Reading/Southampton services and some Manchester - Bristol services).

That should solve a lot of the capacity problems in the "core".

(sorry that the answer isn't "bring back loco-hauled")

 

[transmanche]

Have I misunderstood or are they not fulfilling this obligation?

3.2 One service shall be provided between Manchester Piccadilly and Newquay and from Newquay to Manchester Piccadilly calling as specified in Paragraph 1.3(c). These services may operate as additional services or as an extension to services specified in Paragraph 2.1 and Paragraph 2.4.

The paragraph heading does say Service Pattern Summer Saturdays. And the 07:07 MAN to NQY plus the 15:30 NQY to MAN fulfil that requirement.

 

[Jeni]

The paragraph heading does say Service Pattern Summer Saturdays. And the 07:07 MAN to NQY plus the 15:30 NQY to MAN fulfil that requirement.

My bad, I didn't realise that they existed (everyone only ever talks about the Newcastle services!)

 

[1e10]

Stations like Paignton are already served by local services operated by FGW. Often I catch an XC service to Exeter St. Davids and then continue the journey to Paignton with FGW as these types of services work out more convenient and frequent than waiting for a direct XC service.

 

[Kettledrum]

It's just if the XC franchise is running at a loss which others have pointed out, and that is leading to sky rocketing fares, they can't get more stock to reduce the crowding in the core

It's about time we tackled this "loss".

Is it the same sort of loss that causes major international companies such as Ebay, Costa Coffee and Amazon to have so much expenditure hitting their UK books that it means they pay very little UK taxes, but still continue successfully trading.

How is it that Arriva XC, a subsidiary of a hugely successful major international company with a wealth of skill and knowledge in the transport industry don't make a profit even when they have high fares and when so many of their trains are full to capacity? - and yet they still manage to continue with the XC franchise.

What is the cause of the "loss" - sloppy transport operations, or clever accountants?, or Dft franchising rules?

 

[87015]

What is the cause of the "loss" - sloppy transport operations, or clever accountants?, or Dft franchising rules?

The continuation (because there is no going back now) of a financially flawed Virgin "Operation Princess" business plan. The massive, massive increase in cost was never even close to being overtaken by the revenue gains.

A four or five coach train may be full, even with high fares, but doesn't mean it is profitable.

 

[yorkie]

Ideally there'll also be a new once a day Glasgow "parliamentary" service running on the electrified route into Paddington for diversionary route knowledge...

This puzzles me, for two reasons.

'parliamentary' suggests running a minimal service (once a week) for the purposes of keeping the line/stations open for passenger use. Which line is it that would only be served by this train?

As for running a train for diversionary route knowledge, that is an entirely different reason and I am struggling to work out what Paddington - Glasgow is a diversionary route for? Euston - Glasgow? That would come under a different TOC.