Is it really that expensive to resurrect electrification schemes that were mothballed, especially when enabling works were often already done by the time of postponement?
Well everything on the railway seems to be expensive these days!
My understanding is that all the steelwork and associated parts are gone. There are some pilings in the ground but as far as I know not much other work was done. Even without having to pay for bridge lifts or anything like that, its going to cost a lot of money.
Additionally, the work was postponed a long time ago now, back in 2016, so we must ask if the bridge clearances were done to the old BR specification or the EU backed one that the ORR imposed? Adjusting work done to the former requirements to the latter ones caused no end of problems on the Edinburgh-Glasgow projects at the time.
I don't think we should necessarily wire most of the shorter branches - but waiting for Churchward to deliver BEMUs sometime in the 2030s for the others is silly.
If you electrify Oxford/Basingstoke then Banbury, you can send a few DMUs west the day it is commissioned.
Even if we had a pile of money to start today, it is probably unlikely that we can deliver much before the 2030s regardless!
These things take time, and I doubt much design work was done for much of the current unelectrified track beyond the Oxford segment where work actually started.
We now have under 40 months until the 2030s commence.
Not to mention the through services that are reinstated as originally planned, or able to be created.
Remember that if you want BEMUs for your unelectrified branches outside of the GWML itself, you need charging islands on the main line too.
For example - the Cowley branch, East West Rail, a potential Witney branch would all benefit from a charging opportunity on the go on the Cherwell Valley Line. It's not exactly bucolic and super rural between Oxford and Banbury now either, the massive development they're building at the old RAF airfield in Heyford isn't all that far from the eponymous station.
The through services could restart once the BEMUs are delivered.
My understanding is that the Cowley Branch is to be operated as part of a through service at Marylebone, so charging infrastructure installed there could possibly support it.
If the East West Rail service ever starts, that can probably be provided with charging services in the vicinity of Aylesbury in the interim.
But if we want railways to be profitable overall and to make best use of our extremely expensive new infrastructure, surely we should encourage using the new infrastructure as much as possible. And that doesn't mean HS2 being close to at capacity in the far future, that means investing in extensions to carry those passengers as soon as possible, while it is cheaper, as you mention.
If you're going to electrify Chiltern, a few islands around the termini, Banbury, and a LU (or even LO using some of LU metals) extension to Aylesbury wouldn't break the bank, and wouldn't rely on a future government to upgrade HS2's power supply.
I would wholeheartedly support running a very intensive London-Birmingham service from the earliest opportunity, however this seems unlikely to happen at this time.
They've also recently reduced the requirement for power on HS2 by eliminating ATO, which drops us from 18 paths to 17.
In any case, if they did want to do that, it would likely still be cheaper to modify the HS2 substation designs for a slightly higher rating (after all, they are still far from complete!) and still use them to support the Chiltern route than to electrify it from scratch.
On the Aylesbury via Amersham line - I would prefer to simply make a case for transferring the line wholesale to London Underground (contracting for operation), removing the pedestrian level crossings and electrifying it with fourth rail in accordance with London Underground's well established risk management practices. ORR has apparently accepted the risk management case that LU made, as they have no live working and no level crossings.
If this is impossible, I think battery with charging on the shared Metropolitan Line section, backed up by charging at Aylesbury, would be my preferred choice.
Unfortunately, we have now returned to the interest rates of the pre 2008 era, so capital has become expensive.
The era of <1% Central Bank rates and cheap borrowing appears to be over.
We have to keep some Electrostars for HeX use.
Electrostars aren't made any more AFAIK, and there is certainly no BEMU Electrostar variant that I'm aware of.
Is there any reason that HeX has to use Electrostars rather than any generic BEMU or EMU that fits in the tunnels?
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