West Coast Franchise

[The Planner]

MoC is lifted in part form from May 2011, with the remainder being lifted in May 2012. To this end, the LM services can start from May 2012. See ORR for details. Planner has indicated this will now be Dec 2012.

I think the ORR decision over the LM Preston and Grand Central Blackpool services gets released today. They don't have to start them in Dec 12 , they can start earlier, it is just that there wont be a traditional timetable change in May as normal.

 

[cle]

Well there has been talk of a 4th tph between Manchester Piccadilly and Euston, although the 11 car Pendolinos may yet be the solution instead of. According to the MEN some Piccadilly platforms will need extending to accomodate the longer trains so that's why a 4th train is being muted for 2012. However this would mean another completely new timetable and all the chaos that would bring like the December 08 one did.

If this goes ahead, then Wilmslow would possibly bring potential by stopping 2 tph there, the hourly is already very well used and getting busier! If it stays at 3 tph then I'd be tempted to re-route the current :23 Stockport-Stoke flyer by having it call: Stockport, Wilmslow, Milton Keynes, Euston - as well as keeping the current :55 off Piccadilly as it is, thus reducing Stoke's London frequency to one Virgin and one LM.

Are Shrewsbury or Telford really crying out for a direct London service anymore than places like Blackpool, Blackburn, Bolton, Middlesbrough are?

I think the 4th service was mentioned as stopping at Crewe only, or Milton Keynes also - but no mention of Wilmslow.

It'd be a shame if there were 4tph not to have one of them stop at Watford Junction! Hopefully a timetable change could allow this. And if it was a service via Crewe, rather than Stoke, this would give Watford many more connections.

Also, MK-Crewe is well covered by the Chester train. And I can't imagine them giving Wilmslow 2 out of 3tph and Stoke just one. Wilmslow I imagine isn't that well-used outside of the peaks, when I agree, there is a valuable catchment.

 

[northwichcat]

I think the 4th service was mentioned as stopping at Crewe only, or Milton Keynes also - but no mention of Wilmslow.

ORR announced today that only extra Glasgow services have been approved. The 2 hourly Blackpool/Lancaster Voyager runs and the 4tph for Manchester have been rejected.

 

[Masbroughlad]

Who has bid?

 

[Zoe]

Who has bid?

We won't know for sure until we get the shortlist and even then only the companies that are given an invitation to tender.

 

[WestCoast]

ORR announced today that only extra Glasgow services have been approved. The 2 hourly Blackpool/Lancaster Voyager runs and the 4tph for Manchester have been rejected.

Not pleased about the LM Birmingham - Preston stopper being rejected - the voyagers on this route are often very busy on this route, it could have done with the extra capacity.

 

[Masbroughlad]

Anyone (except Virgin) officially declared their interest?

 

[Zoe]

Not pleased about the LM Birmingham - Preston stopper being rejected - the voyagers are often very busy and this route, it could have done with the extra capacity.

That may be so but again it would be taking revenjue away from Virgin.

 

[WestCoast]

That may be so but again it would be taking revenjue away from Virgin.

True, but I did think it was one of the best ideas. The West Coast franchise's revenue is certainly being protected dearly, this would have been a complimentary service much more so than Grand Central or Alliance Rail would have been.

 

[WatcherZero]

Reading through the full explanation now. Says ORR recognises there is some spare WCML capacity but new services would require a complete recast timetable and its pointless to do that before electrification in 2013-2016 which would result in staggered timetable alterations as the work was completed. (so a case of try again in 3-5 years time really?). I may be reading this wrong but saying the timetable changes it has approved will come in December 2013.

Approve Dft's application on behalf of WCML franchise for hourly Lancaster service to be extended to Glasgow. Refuse Dfts other 10 proposed services, 'there is already too many scheduling conflicts'. (I am glad about this as one of my Glasgow services would have become a Wigan to Lancaster/Blackpool service).

Refuse all the open access operators proposed new services. (Dissapointed LM Birmingham-Preston service wasnt approved, its pretty busy Wigan-Preston).

NR's advice to ORR was that there was one Preston-Euston path available but it would of required heavy timetable changes to prevent disruption to existing services. NR said there would be a 25% chance of UP services experiencing delays due to scheduling conflicts. Study of power supply capacity found there would be spare capacity for another service but it would require heavy testing to validate.

ORRs modeling of revnue suggested Grand Central revenue abstraction ratio (new passengers to pinched passengers) would be considerably less than 0.3 and 'too low'. Alliance didnt submit enough paperwork for an abstraction ratio to even be calculated however they did it anyway and it was found to be comfortably above 0.3. Suggests Grand Central proposed fares would have been too low (and thats why it would have pinched passengers). They tested the business cases of both services to see if revenue exceeded costs and GC would have been profitable but Alliance service would have made a loss. Dfts profitability would have been very low with specifically hired rolling stock but if its assumed as they claimed that the existing rolling stock would have been used for which they had already 'sunk' (paid) then profitability would be quite good.

Interistingly Virgin opposed the Dft application saying it didnt offer protection for the operator, would reduce the franchise value and was premature before the McNulty review. Centro said the proposed services didnt go far enough to add Birmingham-Scotland capacity, Transport Scotland was broadly welcoming of all, Merseytravel was supportive of Dft but annoyed no Liverpool services and objected to all the OAO bids. Most of the other respondees broadly supportive but suspicious of service reliability issues with the OAO bids.

 

[northwichcat]

Not pleased about the LM Birmingham - Preston stopper being rejected - the voyagers on this route are often very busy on this route, it could have done with the extra capacity.

I agree it's disappointing. It was supposed to be introduced by Central Trains but they never got beyond 1tph in the northbound direction only which didn't even have the intended stopping pattern.

As this has been rejected and the proposed additional Blackpool/Lancaster services will not run it is imperative that the Crewe stop is reinstated in the Glasgow-London service. Having two services per hour between Crewe and Warrington was barely adequate (it should have been 2 express per hour and a stopper with calls at Winsford, Hartford and Acton Bridge.) However, the Crewe stop got removed because new London services called at Crewe instead, despite mass objection in the North West because a large number of passengers using the service weren't ever going to London.