West Coast Franchise speculation

[Mollman]

The plan is to build a junction on the Metro line at the corner of Bull Street and Corporation Street and carry on down Bull Street to the HS2 station and beyond. However I think it's a simple junction facing towards Snow Hill so there is no curve to allow trams direct between New Street and Curzon Street.

I believe it will be a triangle junction with the intention that there will be three Metro routes:
Wolves - Edgbaston
Wolves - East Side (Curzon Street and beyond)
Edgbaston - East Side

Thus the latter will connect the two stations probably every 12 minutes.

 

[route101]

Yes. The Glasgow fasts are VTWC's most heavily loaded - consistently heavily loaded - services. I wouldn't consider travelling in standard on them throughout. First is still busy, often full (from Warrington, sometimes earlier), but even if full it doesn't feel cramped if you manage to get a single seat.

Yeah , Im travelling to Warrington . No problem travelling standard ! Will see if it actually is as busy . As ive been on early weekday services from Glasgow and not been that busy.

 

[DenmarkRail]

At Stafford earlier, a spotter pointed out to be a newly erected sign for at the end of the platform 1 which effectively said Class390 12 car stop.

Yeah, I’m possibly reading far to much into this, but a franchise commitment anyone?

 

[jagardner1984]

Interesting. It seems unlikely that West Coast demand can be absorbed in the current timetable and rolling stock until close to 2030, so provision for 12/13 Car services would seem wise.

At which stations would this be a big problem ?

 

[driver_m]

At Stafford earlier, a spotter pointed out to be a newly erected sign for at the end of the platform 1 which effectively said Class390 12 car stop.

Yeah, I’m possibly reading far to much into this, but a franchise commitment anyone?

No. We were told they're only expandable to 11 coaches when first built .The 12 car boards are more likely for 350 units, should LNWR need to run them for one off services. Stafford wouldn't be long enough anyway to fit 12 on. An 11 only just fits in on some platforms .

 

[DenmarkRail]

No. They're only supposed to be expandable to 11 coaches .The 12 car boards are more likely for 350 units, should LNWR need to run them for one off services.

Ah fair enough. Seems strange why they’d put Class 390 12 car stop though. Oh well

 

[driver_m]

Interesting. It seems unlikely that West Coast demand can be absorbed in the current timetable and rolling stock until close to 2030, so provision for 12/13 Car services would seem wise.

At which stations would this be a big problem ?

Most of them. It's a non starter .

 

[jagardner1984]

Most of them. It's a non starter .

Won’t a lot of the northern stations need extended anyway to accept the classic compatible trains from HS2 ?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No. We were told they're only expandable to 11 coaches when first built .The 12 car boards are more likely for 350 units, should LNWR need to run them for one off services. Stafford wouldn't be long enough anyway to fit 12 on. An 11 only just fits in on some platforms .

11x23m 390 = 253m

12x20m 350 = 240m, so shorter than a max Pendo.
The new WMT Aventras are 5-car, length possibly 24m, so you need 10x24m for double units.
The other possibility is for the once-planned mini-Pendolino at 6 cars, so 12x23m for double units.
But there were no orders for it and future rolling stock plans are now in the hands of the WCP bidders.
NR would not be putting up signs for mythical trains.
The route will however need signing for GNWR's 91+Mk4 sets (and, further north, TPE and Northern's assortment of new stock). ​

 

[driver_m]

11x23m 390 = 253m

12x20m 350 = 240m, so shorter than a max Pendo.
The new WMT Aventras are 5-car, length possibly 24m, so you need 10x24m for double units.
The other possibility is for the once-planned mini-Pendolino at 6 cars, so 12x23m for double units.
But there were no orders for it and future rolling stock plans are now in the hands of the WCP bidders.
NR would not be putting up signs for mythical trains.
The route will however need signing for GNWR's 91+Mk4 sets (and, further north, TPE and Northern's assortment of new stock). ​

They can and they have put up wrong signs before. .There was a 10 car voyager board at flint for years on the up platform, despite it being far too short for a 10 car voyager.

A 12 car pendo wouldnt fit at Liverpool, only 2 platforms at Piccadilly, Be too long for a number of platforms at Euston. An extended pendo over 11 cars would need a full reworking underneath, a rewrite of the TMS that's now 17-18 years old in origin and probably various other issues to deal with too.

 

[EE Andy b1]

Why would you now want to extend even if it were possible to 12 cars?
Especially when by end of 2024 there will be up to 60 new build classic compatible trains to start testing.
If you did add another vehicle to a 11 car pendolino you would probably need it fitted with traction packs, transformer another VCB (vacuum circuit breaker) and as said TMS and other systems updated.

RUMOUR going round and about at the moment is that the 9 car Pendolinos will in the future be going to London North Western for them to have a fast service.
The 11 car 390s stay with WCP for West Coast services when the others go via HS2!

 

[AndrewE]

RUMOUR going round and about at the moment is that the 9 car Pendolinos will in the future be going to London North Western for them to have a fast service.

that would be good, we need a better semi-fast service along the WCML and hopefully that will be like their London-Crewe service but extended as far north as Preston (if it can be fitted in.) In APT days we were told that the Whelley line was being protected for a slow line as the double track Warrington to Wigan would be a major pinch point on the WCML.

 

[pt_mad]

At Stafford earlier, a spotter pointed out to be a newly erected sign for at the end of the platform 1 which effectively said Class390 12 car stop.

Yeah, I’m possibly reading far to much into this, but a franchise commitment anyone?

Are you sure it wasn't a 350 12 car stop board? Pendolino stop boards normally say 'VT 9/11' rather than 390 as far as I'm aware?

350 12 car stop board would make sense if they are lengthening some workings to 8 cars in December. As they may be dragging an empty unit on the back with them back to Crewe? AFAIK the bays at Crewe are too short for a regular 12 car 350 working on the Trent Valley service.

RUMOUR going round and about at the moment is that the 9 car Pendolinos will in the future be going to London North Western for them to have a fast service.
The 11 car 390s stay with WCP for West Coast services when the others go via HS2!

How would they call at Atherstone and Rugeley though? I can't imagine they're planning past 2027 yet? Plans up until then are for longer 350 services and the current fleet to remain with West Coast. Nothing about LNR taking any 390s in their new franchise which takes us to 2026/7 so we'd be speculating about after that and I wouldn't want to be listening to any rumours about what might be happening in 2028?

 

[DenmarkRail]

Are you sure it wasn't a 350 12 car stop board? Pendolino stop boards normally say 'VT 9/11' rather than 390 as far as I'm aware?

350 12 car stop board would make sense if they are lengthening some workings to 8 cars in December. As they may be dragging an empty unit on the back with them back to Crewe? AFAIK the bays at Crewe are too short for a regular 12 car 350 working on the Trent Valley service.



How would they call at Atherstone and Rugeley though? I can't imagine they're planning past 2027 yet? Plans up until then are for longer 350 services and the current fleet to remain with West Coast. Nothing about LNR taking any 390s in their new franchise which takes us to 2026/7 so we'd be speculating about after that and I wouldn't want to be listening to any rumours about what might be happening in 2028?

I made a point of checking. It 1000% said class 390.

 

[driver_m]

Obviously an error. I'll have a look tomorrow but I'd put it down to a mistake .

 

[EE Andy b1]

How would they call at Atherstone and Rugeley though? I can't imagine they're planning past 2027 yet? Plans up until then are for longer 350 services and the current fleet to remain with West Coast. Nothing about LNR taking any 390s in their new franchise which takes us to 2026/7 so we'd be speculating about after that and I wouldn't want to be listening to any rumours about what might be happening in 2028?

They wouldn't call at them stations. Obviously the idea would be to give LNW a fast service with less stops, picking up and dropping off at main class 390 fitting stations like MKC, Northampton, Rugby and then depending if via Brum or Stafford/Stoke, they could also fit SDO to more stations if required.
I'm sure the possibilities are there, but yes not before 2026/27 which i believe is in the future! Then WCP might have too many trains.

I do think with all that money that was spent to provide tilt, that there not just going to throw tiltable sets away, more so than other stock and i can't see much more tilting rolling stock being acquired, maybe TALGO like Bi-modes for WCP North Wales/Shrewsbury.

And as for RUMOURS the railway runs on them!

 

[The Planner]

This one is on the little wild side even for the railway, no one even knows what services will run post 2026 yet.

 

[EE Andy b1]

This one is on the little wild side even for the railway, no one even knows what services will run post 2026 yet.

I totally agree but the rumour mill and the discussions start now not in 2026.

As i'm sure you know there are normally several plans being formulated in the background way before events happen.

But yes a RUMOUR has no factual content whatsoever. That we know of!!

 

[pt_mad]

I totally agree but the rumour mill and the discussions start now not in 2026.

As i'm sure you know there are normally several plans being formulated in the background way before events happen.

But yes a RUMOUR has no factual content whatsoever. That we know of!!

Fair dues.

Thing is, LNR and WMR will have presumably agreed their plans with the DFT, and the bulk will have been announced re new fleets of trains on cross city, inter regional WCML routes and inter regional diesel routes. That's a lot of new trains they are procuring. And all that was announced and agreed with the manufacturers.

At the same time the WCP is out for tender and envisages the same fleet of trains as now. No less. And we are talking into the late 2020s (with potential extensions in there).

On the face of it there would be no logical reason why LNR would want a tiny fleet of 390s just for the Trent Valley route. They wouldn't be able to run the current route as 390s don't typically do any SDO that I'm aware of hence not calling at Flyde Coast stations. And the current franchise guarantees the Trent Valley service with its current calls as far north as Stafford (then mainline to Crewe). The 350 fleet is perfect for this, once the sets are doubled granted. But they have the wider doors, large areas for hop on off local travel in the Trent and are very accessible too. They're perfect for all journeys of up to two hours for sure. Standing is also viably possible.

Is there any need for tilt on the current Trent Valley service? Not really? It runs slow line North of Nuneaton and with stops at Milton Keynes and Rugby on route the time savings 125mph Vs 110mph I'd argue would be fairly negligible vs the cost of taking on a fleet of say 9 or 10 390s.
If you took out the small stops and just did MK, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield, Stafford and Crewe you'd have to come off onto the slow line anyway at Tamworth and couldnt get back in the fast until north of Lichfield. And then you are stopping again at Stafford. Would it even be worth it? The acceleration of a 350 is top notch anyway for frequent stopping.

If the issue is the standard of the trains then LNR could have the option of running some class 730s on the Trent Valley when they acquire them. Although I'd speculate a 5 car unit wouldn't be enough and whether you would be able to run a double set (10 car) 730 inter regional spec set on that route I don't know.

I'd imagine the 350/1s /3s and /4s will be due a full interior refurb as part of the LNR franchise anyway so there could be slight mods of a more superior feel to the sets after that especially given how TPE have polished theirs up inside.

But for the WCP as things stand I don't think the West coast franchisee or the DFT would be happy with some sort of rival Trent Valley fast tilting service every hour offering competition to their handful of calling peak tilting services, which are set in the calling pattern until at least 2026. It's probably a competition issue (possible revenue abstraction away from the peak West Coast TV calls).

 

[AndrewE]

Fiat dues.

Thing is, LNR will have presumably agreed their plans with the DFT, and and the bulk will have been announced re new fleets of trains on cross city, inter regional WCML routes and inter regional diesel routes. That's a lot of new traons they are procuring. And all that was announced and agreed with the manufacturers.

At the same time the WCP is out for tender and envisages the same fleet of trains as now. No less. And we are talking into the late 2020s (with potential extensions in there).

On the face of it there would be no logical reason why LNR would want a tiny fleet of 390s just for the Trent Valley route. They wouldn't be able to run the current route as 390s don't typically do any SDO that I'm aware of hence not calling at Flyde Coast stations. And the current franchise guarantees the Trent Valley service with its current calls as far north as Stafford (then mainline to Crewe). The 350 fleet is perfect for this, once the sets are doubled granted. Bit they have the wider doors, large areas for hop on off local travel in the Trent and are very accessible too. They're perfect for all journeys of up to two hours for sure.

Is there any need for tilt on the current Trent Valley service? Not really? It runs slow line North of Nuneaton and with stops at Milton Keynes and Rugby on route the time savings 125mph Vs 110mph I'd argue would be fairly negligible bs the cost of taking on a fleet of say 9 or 10 390s.

I'dI'd the issue is the standard of the trains then LNR could have the option of running some class 730s on the Trent Valley when they acquire them. Although I'd speculate a 5 car unit wouldn't be enough and whether you would be able to run a double set (10 car) 730 inter regional spec set on that route I don't know.

I'd imagine the 350/1s /3s and /4s will be due a full interior refurb as part of the LNR franchise anyway so there could be slight mods of a more superior feel to the sets after that especially given how TPE have polished theirs up inside.

390s do have SDO - the 11-car sets use it at Haymarket on every journey they make to Edinburgh. And I would hope that if the current Trent Valley service can be upgraded a bit more and extended to Preston it will be mostly on the fast lines, calling just at the places that offer connections.

 

[pt_mad]

390s do have SDO - the 11-car sets use it at Haymarket on every journey they make to Edinburgh. And I would hope that if the current Trent Valley service can be upgraded a bit more and extended to Preston it will be mostly on the fast lines, calling just at the places that offer connections.

Couldn't imagine a 390 could use SDO at Atherstone or Rugeley though? Anyone know why they aren't using it at Poulton or Kirkham?

Surely you'd have to remove those calls (Atherstone and Rugeley) but they are protected in the minimum service requirement until 2026 with the current calling pattern?

Any speculation about improvements to the LNR Trent service isn't likely to go much further than longer trains, a handful of extra workings and potentially a Northampton stopper in the future that isn't in the minimum service requirement from what's been announced and what's set in stone service wise and restrictions wise.

Cant see there being any extensions going north whatsoever as LNR are only allowed to run 2 trains per hour past Weaver Junction going North, and these are the two Liverpool's which are again guaranteed for Liverpool's sake. So there's no scope there, DFT appear not to want it.

 

[TheDavibob]

If you took out the small stops and just did MK, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield, Stafford and Crewe you'd have to come off onto the slow line anyway at Tamworth and couldnt get back in the fast until north of Lichfield. And then you are stopping again at Stafford. Would it even be worth it? The acceleration of a 350 is top notch anyway for frequent stopping.

I don't disagree with anything you've said, but I don't think being stuck to the slows between Tamworth and Lichfield is actually a problem. Think 390s can and do hit 125 between them. "Slow" isn't entirely appropriate. Especially as they are minutes apart and both appropriate destinations (so you would never want to change to inner lines between them anyway).

 

[driver_m]

I don't disagree with anything you've said, but I don't think being stuck to the slows between Tamworth and Lichfield is actually a problem. Think 390s can and do hit 125 between them. "Slow" isn't entirely appropriate. Especially as they are minutes apart and both appropriate destinations (so you would never want to change to inner lines between them anyway).

You can only just do it. And it has to be a 9 car running in boost mode, not eco mode. There's about 7 minutes given stopping between the two.

 

[pt_mad]

Realistically, the more I think about it, its very very unlikely LNR would be allocated any Pendolinos for their service anytime in the next 9 or 10 years. Reason being, and its an obvious one that didn't come to me yesterday, that if the DFT wanted that, they'd just have placed the Trent Valley service into the WCP. Simple as that. Easy way of giving the Trent Valley service high speed tilting stock without messing up maintenance regimes, having to have new depots, splitting the fleet into a micro fleet, new driver training, new agreements etc etc would have been just to put the route in with the next West Coast Partnership Franchise. Easy. It obviously wasn't wanted that way by the DFT or it would have happened. And its not in the invitation to tender. So the earliest it could happen potentially is about 2028 when the initial WCP comes to an end and thats if there isn't an extension.

And like I say, potentially I can't see any reason why LNR couldn't run some of the brand new class 730 inter regional sets along the Trent Valley on certain workings? Not sure if anyone else can? Although a double set of 10 cars might be pushing it. But I suspect they will potentially work all workings which currently call at Northampton or are currently worked by a 350/2. Several a day I think along the Trent.

Given a full refurb the 350s (excluding /2s) have excellent potential. They only lack slightly in the luxury department, other than that they're about as good a ride as a mk3. Superb acceleration, great for loading huge numbers quickly and perfect for those who need accessibility. Most importantly they have a great reliability record. Given an overhaul in first class, more sockets and reupholstering throughout they could be absolutely superb. Anyway I'm straying off towards LNR topics so WCP wise I see things continuing only as they are on the Trent Valley for the foreseeable future.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Realistically, the more I think about it, its very very unlikely LNR would be allocated any Pendolinos for their service anytime in the next 9 or 10 years. Reason being, and its an obvious one that didn't come to me yesterday, that if the DFT wanted that, they'd just have placed the Trent Valley service into the WCP. Simple as that. Easy way of giving the Trent Valley service high speed tilting stock without messing up maintenance regimes, having to have new depots, splitting the fleet into a micro fleet, new driver training, new agreements etc etc would have been just to put the route in with the next West Coast Partnership Franchise. Easy. It obviously wasn't wanted that way by the DFT or it would have happened. And its not in the invitation to tender. So the earliest it could happen potentially is about 2028 when the initial WCP comes to an end and thats if there isn't an extension.

And like I say, potentially I can't see any reason why LNR couldn't run some of the brand new class 730 inter regional sets along the Trent Valley on certain workings? Not sure if anyone else can? Although a double set of 10 cars might be pushing it. But I suspect they will potentially work all workings which currently call at Northampton or are currently worked by a 350/2. Several a day I think along the Trent.

Given a full refurb the 350s (excluding /2s) have excellent potential. They only lack slightly in the luxury department, other than that they're about as good a ride as a mk3. Superb acceleration, great for loading huge numbers quickly and perfect for those who need accessibility. Most importantly they have a great reliability record. Given an overhaul in first class, more sockets and reupholstering throughout they could be absolutely superb. Anyway I'm straying off towards LNR topics so WCP wise I see things continuing only as they are on the Trent Valley for the foreseeable future.

While this is far too off topic, and should be moved to the LNWR topic, the fundamentals of a future LNWR franchise should become closer to TPE.
-Better first class caterings (LNWR other nothing)
-More Intercity Style trains, the new Aventras and the current way the 350s are managed don’t allow this.
-More fast stops.

To move this into topic though, post 2028, it might make sense to split the WM franchise from LNWR, and split the WCML from HS2, and operate LNWR and WCML stuff as a single unit, and then give some extra open access paths for fare reducing competition.

 

[DenmarkRail]

350 not 390. Sun must have been playing tricks. Sorry.

 

[pt_mad]

While this is far too off topic, and should be moved to the LNWR topic, the fundamentals of a future LNWR franchise should become closer to TPE.
-Better first class caterings (LNWR other nothing)
-More Intercity Style trains, the new Aventras and the current way the 350s are managed don’t allow this.
-More fast stops.

To move this into topic though, post 2028, it might make sense to split the WM franchise from LNWR, and split the WCML from HS2, and operate LNWR and WCML stuff as a single unit, and then give some extra open access paths for fare reducing competition.

I suspect this may be the way it goes for the West Coast Franchise after the first WCP period comes to an end. Especially given that potentially Great Northern could merge with the East Coast franchise in the future.

The plan as I understand it is for full devolution of West Midlands Railway to the WMCA in the next West Midlands Franchise anyway. And that would leave a pretty small franchise for LNR operating with the routes it has. Would seem to make sense to put it in with the West Coast Franchise after 2027 whether this is a WCP to take in HS2 or not.

If you look at the route map for LNR, the one online in Google images which doesn't have WMR on it, just the LNR routes, it looks a bit sparse. Probably not enough there for a full franchise of its own imo.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Asking WCP to be at the same time the beacon of HS2 high-speed operation, a regional operator via Rugby and a London commuter TOC is a bit much, I would say.
One or more of these sectors is not going to get the attention it needs.
The MML and ECML will also change character (ie become more locally oriented) once HS2 gets to these places.

 

[pt_mad]

Asking WCP to be at the same time the beacon of HS2 high-speed operation, a regional operator via Rugby and a London commuter TOC is a bit much, I would say.
One or more of these sectors is not going to get the attention it needs.
The MML and ECML will also change character (ie become more locally oriented) once HS2 gets to these places.

Sorry I wasn't clear .I meant I could see it being that the WCML franchise (as in the West Coast Mainline trains only) may join with LNR. With HS2 routes totally splitting off. Late 2020s. That was my guess.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

Sorry I wasn't clear .I meant I could see it being that the WCML franchise (as in the West Coast Mainline trains only) may join with LNR. With HS2 routes totally splitting off. Late 2020s. That was my guess.

This seems possible, as the current WMT franchise will run until about 2026 at least, and extensions/direct awards cannot be ruled out. Splitting the WMT franchise into the WMR part, possibly with some additional services by then such as on the South Staffordshire Line which is currently being reopened and possibly Birmingham to Leicester, and then putting the LNR and non-HS2 part of VTWC into a new West Coast franchise, seems an attractive option.

However, what kind of complications could that then lead to, in terms of differentiating the 350 and 390/Voyager services, which would still have some speed differential? Would we end up in the same ticketing complexities as currently exist within the TSGN franchise?