West Coast Franchise speculation

[vlad]

The Stoke "wobble" will instead get a new hourly Birmingham to Crewe service which is an extension of the New St-Wolves stopper (which I guess means the Wolves bay will become disused).

I was of the understanding the Crewe - Stoke - Wolves - Bham train will continue on to London (BBC link here). Is this incorrect, or have plans changed again?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I was of the understanding the Crewe - Stoke - Wolves - Bham train will continue on to London (BBC link here). Is this incorrect, or have plans changed again?

No, it's correct, I had forgotten that they had later decided to link it to a Brum-Euston via Northampton so Stone passengers didn't shout too much about loss of a London service (much as it'll be markedly worse, and if the times work they'll be better off changing at Stafford).

 

[BR Boy 125]

A Class 66 has 3000 horsepower and a Class 90 has 5000 horsepower so a class 90 is more powerful.

What I think you are trying to say is that the Class 66 has more tractive effort, which is the force it can use to pull a train at low speed. The class 66 can get a heavier train moving and slog up the gradient slowly. With the heaviest train the 66 can haul the 90 would just spin its wheels and go nowhere. However if the train is is light enough for the class 90 to get it moving the extra power means it will be able to pull it more quickly up the hill than the 66 would. A class 92 has both high power and high tractive effort, being designed mainly as a freight engine. The freight trains that are electric-hauled over Shap have significantly better timings than the diesels.

Sorry! I meant a better tractive effort but you could see where is was coming from. I am young and nobody around likes train like I do. This is a place where people speak my 'Language'.

 

[edwin_m]

Sorry! I meant a better tractive effort but you could see where is was coming from. I am young and nobody around likes train like I do. This is a place where people speak my 'Language'.

No problem. The forum is a place where all of us can learn new things.

 

[pt_mad]

Went through Coventry station recently, and noticed they are now using automated announcements at the station, ATOS Annie. I was quite surprised as I thought Virgin's policy was to have a person making all departure announcements rather than automated? Will Virgin be introducing this at other stations and does anyone know why they might have been the case at Coventry? Note there was a live person giving information about one train that was delayed. But all other announcements were automated Annie.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Went through Coventry station recently, and noticed they are now using automated announcements at the station, ATOS Annie. I was quite surprised as I thought Virgin's policy was to have a person making all departure announcements rather than automated? Will Virgin be introducing this at other stations and does anyone know why they might have been the case at Coventry? Note there was a live person giving information about one train that was delayed. But all other announcements were automated Annie.

Stafford now has both... It will be the auto lady saying "The train now approaching platform x is the xxx service to xxx calling at xxx only" where as the real man will say "The train at platform x is the xxx service to xxx, calling at xxx. first class is at the rear of the train, and a shop is located in coach x"

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Plus "delicious refreshments" from the autoannouncer.
Also at Wigan and Preston (at least).

 

[vlad]

Went through Coventry station recently, and noticed they are now using automated announcements at the station, ATOS Annie. I was quite surprised as I thought Virgin's policy was to have a person making all departure announcements rather than automated? Will Virgin be introducing this at other stations and does anyone know why they might have been the case at Coventry? Note there was a live person giving information about one train that was delayed. But all other announcements were automated Annie.

I've only heard automated announcements over the past few months at Stoke, which I use at irregular intervals. I don't know if this is a change in VT policy or if Stoke and Coventry are the exceptions.

 

[sufian123]

Went through Coventry station recently, and noticed they are now using automated announcements at the station, ATOS Annie. I was quite surprised as I thought Virgin's policy was to have a person making all departure announcements rather than automated? Will Virgin be introducing this at other stations and does anyone know why they might have been the case at Coventry? Note there was a live person giving information about one train that was delayed. But all other announcements were automated Annie.

I’ve noticed it last month when I visited Coventry. It’s same at rugby as well.

 

[Bletchleyite]

TBH Annie is probably so ubiquitous (and does say near enough everything that's on the displays) that the benefit of having it the same everywhere probably exceeds the disbenefit of it being a bit boring. Though I do think they need a second (male) voice as if she announces two at once they're hard to separate.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

I find it a shame that ATOS Annie has invaded yet more stations. It should be the preserve of unmanned stations - the manual announcements give character to stations IMO. I also find it a shame that there is no male voice.

 

[pt_mad]

I'm guessing they've retained the human announcers as well then?

 

[DenmarkRail]

I'm guessing they've retained the human announcers as well then?

Converting to ATOS annie does create good uniformity across the VTWC network. There will always be the same announcement, and will reduce the chance of mistakes, or differing information being sent out. It'll probably be best in the long run

 

[Bletchleyite]

Converting to ATOS annie does create good uniformity across the VTWC network. There will always be the same announcement, and will reduce the chance of mistakes, or differing information being sent out. It'll probably be best in the long run

Just a shame she sounds so dreary compared with Phil Sayer.

 

[PR1Berske]

Plus "delicious refreshments" from the autoannouncer.
Also at Wigan and Preston (at least).

And don't forget to download BEAM!

 

[KashmireHawker]

The Times top story: "China (MTR/Guangshen bid) in driving seat to control HS2 trains"

Article is below: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/china-in-driving-seat-to-control-hs2-trains-cmr0tkjg0

Chinese railway companies are the frontrunners to operate HS2 trains because two domestic bidders are beset by crises and unwilling to take on the financial risk, The Times has learnt.

Guangshen Railway Co, an arm of the Chinese state rail company, and MTR, which runs Hong Kong’s rail network, are on course to win the contract, sources said.

Their bid is the most likely to win the tender to run the 220mph trains from a shortlist of three that also includes two British-led entries — one from a consortium involving Virgin and another led by First Group.

Virgin Trains handed back control of the east coast main line last Sunday after overbidding for the franchise. First Group has reported losses of £326 million and its chief executive resigned last month.

Terms in the tender for the West Coast Partnership, which includes HS2, could be too onerous for both. A senior rail source said that the companies’ issues “could let in the Chinese as they have deep, state-backed pockets and would have a blank cheque”.
The comments are likely to cause concern. Two years ago Theresa May delayed signing off government support for the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant, partly over the security implications of Chinese involvement.

In April, the National Cyber Security Centre wrote to telecoms providers to warn them that equipment and services from the Chinese state-owned company ZTE could pose a national security risk. MPs also expressed concern after Chinese investors acquired Global Switch, the £5 billion London-based sensitive data storage company.

Final bids are due early next month for the West Coast Partnership. The contract is to take over the running of the west coast main line in and out of London Euston to the late 2020s, while preparing for, then taking over, the running of the trains on HS2 between Birmingham and London from 2026.

At issue is the amount of capital the bidders are expected to put up in bonds to run HS2, when its future popularity is far from clear. It is also understood that the government wants the final salary pension scheme for employees on the west coast main line to revert to the winner of the bid. The liabilities would be very difficult for the likes of Stagecoach, which is part of the Virgin consortium, and First Group to bear.

The source said that, after problems with delays and industrial action, “the government cannot afford to stuff this up”, adding: “Unfortunately, they appear to be tendering a contract which is proving far from easy to bid for.” Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, is due to make a final decision next May.

The Virgin consortium is 20 per cent owned by Sir Richard Branson’s company, 50 per cent by Stagecoach and 30 per cent by SNCF, the French state railway. The First Group consortium is a 70-30 joint venture with Trenitalia, the Italian state railway.

MTR is regarded as a safe pair of hands. It used to run the London Overground, is First Group’s partner on South Western Railway and has the contract to run the trains on Crossrail. All three bidders declined to comment, as did the Department for Transport.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A reasonable analysis of the financial position of Stagecoach and First Group, but the bids aren't even in yet (2 weeks to go).
Undoubtedly it will be crunch time for agreeing financing for the franchise bids.
However, a rail franchise bid is hardly going to have implications for UK national security.
Some other bidders are also state-backed and have potentially deep pockets (or at least determination to win) - Trenitalia and SNCF.
I don't doubt MTR's capability, but Guangshen is unknown in UK conditions.
It's a concern that Virgin is a junior partner to Stagecoach in their WCP bid, after the VTEC debacle, and unlike the current ICWC setup.
Another concern is that the winner will have less control over operation than a normal franchise, with HS2 Ltd in effective charge of the route and rolling stock long term.
Anyway, (a) we don't know what's in the bids, and (b) it's 10 months before Chris Grayling has to make the decision.

 

[DenmarkRail]

A reasonable analysis of the financial position of Stagecoach and First Group, but the bids aren't even in yet (2 weeks to go).
Undoubtedly it will be crunch time for agreeing financing for the franchise bids.
However, a rail franchise bid is hardly going to have implications for UK national security.
Some other bidders are also state-backed and have potentially deep pockets (or at least determination to win) - Trenitalia and SNCF.
I don't doubt MTR's capability, but Guangshen is unknown in UK conditions.
It's a concern that Virgin is a junior partner to Stagecoach in their WCP bid, after the VTEC debacle, and unlike the current ICWC setup.
Another concern is that the winner will have less control over operation than a normal franchise, with HS2 Ltd in effective charge of the route and rolling stock long term.
Anyway, (a) we don't know what's in the bids, and (b) it's 10 months before Chris Grayling has to make the decision.

\

As far as I can tell, it looks as if there will end up being an extension to the current franchise, in its current form. I feel there has been a lack of planning from the DfT and for that, for the sake of the franchise itself, I'd rather there be an extension than a rerun which is fundamentally flawed

 

[bionic]

If VTWC and HS2 are to be in the same franchise then what happens to LNR when/if it's split from WMT, as appears to be the mid-term intention? Would LNR continue as a smaller, separate franchise providing the stoppers on the WCML or would it end up lumped in with the new larger West Coast/HS2 one? Surely from a purely operational point of view it makes sense to have all the West Coast services singing from the same hymn sheet but not sure if this would fall foul of some sort of monopoly clause?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If VTWC and HS2 are to be in the same franchise then what happens to LNR when/if it's split from WMT, as appears to be the mid-term intention? Would LNR continue as a smaller, separate franchise providing the stoppers on the WCML or would it end up lumped in with the new larger West Coast/HS2 one? Surely from a purely operational point of view it makes sense to have all the West Coast services singing from the same hymn sheet but not sure if this would fall foul of some sort of monopoly clause?

The ITT doesn't hint at combining WCP and LNR.
But DfT is considering combining GN services with LNER for the ECP, which is a similar setup if the GN metro goes to TfL.
But is there any logic (after 2027) in having Euston-Northampton under the same roof as Euston-Glasgow via HS2?
I can see why they want to focus on the integration of the long-distance services, but not the commuter operation.
Birmingham-Liverpool would be an interloper though, competing directly with services via HS2.

 

[edwin_m]

The ITT doesn't hint at combining WCP and LNR.
But DfT is considering combining GN services with LNER for the ECP, which is a similar setup if the GN metro goes to TfL.
But is there any logic (after 2027) in having Euston-Northampton under the same roof as Euston-Glasgow via HS2?
I can see why they want to focus on the integration of the long-distance services, but not the commuter operation.
Birmingham-Liverpool would be an interloper though, competing directly with services via HS2.

I see the integration of the long-distance services as being about managing the transition most smoothly. However there's no reason why this should continue long term as HS2 and WCML become largely separate operationally - and even where they share track most of it won't be with classic trains from Euston.

Once HS2 services are split off there's then little point in maintaining the distinction between the slightly faster and slightly slower services on the existing line. Whoever operates that will have a mandate to provide the best service for the intermediate stations. There may be some opportunity for them to fill empty seats with much slower journeys duplicating HS2 routes at bargain basement prices, but that is the tail and it shouldn't wag the dog.

 

[pt_mad]

The Times top story: "China (MTR/Guangshen bid) in driving seat to control HS2 trains"

Article is below: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/china-in-driving-seat-to-control-hs2-trains-cmr0tkjg0

Losses for FirstGroup of £326million? How does this work? That's worse than VTEC isnt it? Should we not be worried? How are they continuing to operate?

 

[The Ham]

Losses for FirstGroup of £326million? How does this work? That's worse than VTEC isnt it? Should we not be worried? How are they continuing to operate?

Given the context I would suggest sloppy journalism and that it's Stagecoach that's lost that money.

 

[kje7812]

Given the context I would suggest sloppy journalism and that it's Stagecoach that's lost that money.

Nope, it is First:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44312684

 

[gsnedders]

Losses for FirstGroup of £326million? How does this work? That's worse than VTEC isnt it? Should we not be worried? How are they continuing to operate?

Remember that's a group *as a whole*, not just one constituent part. As for how they're continuing to operate: they're not bankrupt. From the annual report:

• Statutory loss before tax £326.9m
  (2017: profit of £152.6m), reflecting £277.3m Greyhound goodwill and other asset impairments, £106.3m TransPennine Express (TPE) onerous contract provision and other adjusting items

The losses are pretty small compared with 2.5B in net assets, and one would not expect those losses to be sustained (they're mostly accounting for lower than expected values of business units, so unless they continue to worsen it's a single year item).

 

[pt_mad]

Remember that's a group *as a whole*, not just one constituent part. As for how they're continuing to operate: they're not bankrupt. From the annual report:



The losses are pretty small compared with 2.5B in net assets, and one would not expect those losses to be sustained (they're mostly accounting for lower than expected values of business units, so unless they continue to worsen it's a single year item).

So it's basically irrelevant and shouldn't affect their WCP bid then? (The article seems to suggest it will).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The main FirstGroup losses are on Greyhound in the US (a one-off restructuring cost of £277m), and £106m provision on TPE over the rest of the franchise.
GWR and SWR are making "solid contributions" to profits.
Tim O'Toole is being replaced as CEO.
Nothing to panic about overall.

 

[Deafdoggie]

I'm guessing they've retained the human announcers as well then?

Stoke didn't have an announcer as such, platform staff did it between them. But some preferred it more than others!

Auto announcements now at Crewe too, so seems to be spreading.

 

[DenmarkRail]

The Times top story: "China (MTR/Guangshen bid) in driving seat to control HS2 trains"

Article is below: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/china-in-driving-seat-to-control-hs2-trains-cmr0tkjg0

In terms of the current term, what good can MTR bring to the WCML? I can only see some worst cases from them. No real benefits.

 

[The Planner]

In terms of the current term, what good can MTR bring to the WCML? I can only see some worst cases from them. No real benefits.

Without seeing the bids Im not sure that can be assumed about MTR or any of the others?