West Coast Franchise speculation

[Mike395]

With the East Coast news this week; making a firm number of the British Public sit up and take notice, could it easily kill off (as some think) VTWC's chances in retaining the Franchise?

Not sure it will, so long as Virgin keep the majority share in any bid - they've generally done well with the West Coast franchise thus far and it's a completely different management team to the failed Virgin Trains East Coast franchise.

 

[kje7812]

Not sure it will, so long as Virgin keep the majority share in any bid - they've generally done well with the West Coast franchise thus far and it's a completely different management team to the failed Virgin Trains East Coast franchise.

The bid for the West Coast Partnership is:
Stagecoach 50%
SNCF 30%
Virgin 20%

 

[Domh245]

The public have no say in the awarding of the franchise, and so long as Stagecoach don't start bidding crazy amounts, I see no reason why they shouldn't have as good a chance as any of the bidders for winning.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I can see Virgin and Stagecoach reviewing their respective shares in the bid.
Virgin has run the West Coast show to date (51%), and Stagecoach has just taken the major hit on VTEC (90%).
When it comes to putting up the bond money, their shares might reverse with Virgin in the lead.
That's if Branson wants a long-term interest in rail.
He might just be ready to pull out and have a quiet life.
But if the cookies don't fall their way, they could be out of rail in 12-18 months.
SNCF also has a few things on their mind apart from dabbling in the UK - like staying afloat in their government-imposed restructuring.

As I see it, the WCP bid is about the current ICWC operation in terms of cold hard numbers, with the HS2 aspect being "aspirational" and financially vague for about 5 years.
They will be expected to deliver significant premiums on ICWC to fund HS2 startup.
But I think DfT wants a tame, compliant TOC rather than a bolshie lot like Virgin/Stagecoach/SNCF.
That was fine when the numbers worked, but they have been shown to have a flawed business model.

 

[aylesbury]

The project failed on the ECML but on the WCML it works and they will carry on doing this the other bidders are all suspect in my opinion.But the actual WCML will be a very different conception after HS2 it will be a glorified locals only as we are all expected to use the new line regardless of the current excellent services and connections offered by the existing line.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I personally see Virgin taking a few shares off Stagecoach.

 

[KashmireHawker]

I could see one of 2 things:

1: A 40/30/30 partnership instead of the current agreement. Knowing how much of a whack Stagecoach have taken through the East Coast, they'd be extremely bold, stupid or in Sir Richard's own words "Insane" (came from of course the 2012 franchise shambles) to go for half the shares considering the mess EC is in and that knowing they got the sums catastrophically incorrect. However and has been rightfully pointed out, VTWC are operated much more succinctly and therefore they still seem fairly strong through the fairly consistent performance and investment they've put in.

2: And kinda on the overhand - something of which quite a few want is the reputable damage to kill the bid and see them lose, just to add further salt in the wounds. If they are outbid by either FG/TI or MTR/GR which I think will happen, that coupled alone with the situation on VTEC see Grayling (who of course is known for making outlandish choices) see Virgin out of the rail industry and possibly for good, despite all that has been achieved.

It's going to be fun to watch over the next 12/14 months or so!

 

[pt_mad]

From the ECML thread:

Actually, the DfT registered LMS and London Midland & Scottish as trademarks, less than a month after registering LNER.

Source: https://trademarks.ipo.gov.uk/ipo-tmowner/page/search?id=501407&domain=1

I don't think Abellio 'stole' the London Northwestern Railway' name.

Not sure LMS would work as doesn't really include Manchester, Liverpool or North Wales?

Come to think of it, the name needs to suit the first few years of HS2 operation as well. And if it's staying surely it would need to include the north? As HS2 will be serving the north not just the Midlands.

Perhaphs just West Coast Trains would do?

 

[coppercapped]

It looks as if the DfT has already programmed potential financial failure for the future franchisee into the Invitation to Tender for the ICWC. From Roger Ford's e-preview of his column in the July Modern Railways:

ICWC will be a classic Intercity Franchise where the premium profile in the bid is extremely sensitive to external factors. In a section with the grim heading ‘Consequences of forecast Financial Ratio Breach on evaluation’ DfT includes a table of its ‘baseline’ premium payments. I have added two introductory lines to this table to show current payments.

Having converted the table into a premium profile chart I was amused to see that DfT’s own forecasts reveal the same heavy back-end loading that has caused franchisees so much grief over the years.

My emphasis.

In other words the premium payments are required to increase towards the end of the franchise. Will the DfT never learn?

 

[pt_mad]

Not sure the ingredients are there for the West Coast to fail though.

Essentially the minimum service level and timetable required is only that of today and no more is required. Although bidders can bid more services if they want to. So aspirations may be lower and based more on today's figures rather than on new services, routes or huge revenue increases.


Someone asked if Virgin don't continue what will the franchise be called?
I would imagine that the franchise will have a new name even if the Virgin consortium do win it. Pretty sure company specific names are to be a no no for this WCP.

 

[coppercapped]

Not sure the ingredients are there for the West Coast to fail though.

Essentially the minimum service level and timetable required is only that of today and no more is required. Although bidders can bid more services if they want to. So aspirations may be lower and based more on today's figures rather than on new services, routes or huge revenue increases.

So, if there are to be no "new services, routes or huge revenue increases" where is the money coming from to pay the heavy increases in the premiums required by the DfT towards the end of the franchise?

Someone asked if Virgin don't continue what will the franchise be called?
I would imagine that the franchise will have a new name even if the Virgin consortium do win it. Pretty sure company specific names are to be a no no for this WCP.

 

[Brummigrant]

It would be quite nice if the new franchise enabled departures from Euston to Birmingham after 10pm on a Saturday! It's hilarious that the last one is at 21:43.

 

[The Planner]

So, if there are to be no "new services, routes or huge revenue increases" where is the money coming from to pay the heavy increases in the premiums required by the DfT towards the end of the franchise?

Presumably revenue from running the initial years of HS2.

 

[PR1Berske]

Not sure the ingredients are there for the West Coast to fail though.

Essentially the minimum service level and timetable required is only that of today and no more is required. Although bidders can bid more services if they want to. So aspirations may be lower and based more on today's figures rather than on new services, routes or huge revenue increases.


Someone asked if Virgin don't continue what will the franchise be called?
I would imagine that the franchise will have a new name even if the Virgin consortium do win it. Pretty sure company specific names are to be a no no for this WCP.

The way naming franchises is going, and with LNW already taken, I look forward to the next train on platform 4 being the "London West Coast and Scotland service to..."

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Not sure LMS would work as doesn't really include Manchester, Liverpool or North Wales?

It suited the old LMS well enough on those routes, but the old Midland routes are now in other hands.
Essentially the franchise routes are the core of the old LNWR and Caledonian (and North Stafford).
Including HS2 changes things quite a lot, as it will eventually serve MML and EC destinations as well.
But the LNWR served those places after 1840 when Euston was the only gateway to the north, until the GN became a viable competitor in the 1850s.

 

[transmanche]

Not sure LMS would work as doesn't really include Manchester, Liverpool or North Wales?

That didn't stop the original LMS which operated there, plus many routes into Yorkshire and the LT&S to Southend and Shoeburyness in Essex!

 

[superalbs]

The way naming franchises is going, and with LNW already taken, I look forward to the next train on platform 4 being the "London West Coast and Scotland service to..."

London West Coast and Scotland Railway

Gotta have that buzzword in there.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

It would be quite nice if the new franchise enabled departures from Euston to Birmingham after 10pm on a Saturday! It's hilarious that the last one is at 21:43.

Actually a very good point - with diversions available via Northampton , Stechford and at a push via Nuneaton (allowing for a 221 for the latter) - at the cost of an extended journey time of course.

An earlier London to Brum also a good idea on a weekday - particularly for flight traffic to and from the Airport at International.

 

[Agent_Squash]

The way naming franchises is going, and with LNW already taken, I look forward to the next train on platform 4 being the "London West Coast and Scotland service to..."

Part of me wonders if the move away from owner specific branding was because of the massive fuss and support Virgin was able to rally from customers. There's a lot of people on the West Coast who don't want to lose Virgin, all because of brand loyalty.

 

[The Planner]

Actually a very good point - with diversions available via Northampton , Stechford and at a push via Nuneaton (allowing for a 221 for the latter) - at the cost of an extended journey time of course.

Nuneaton only really works as long as there are no Coventry or International stops or you have random bustitution late at night depending on blocks. TOCs aren't big fans of putting on vomit comets at night.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Nuneaton only really works as long as there are no Coventry or International stops or you have random bustitution late at night depending on blocks. TOCs aren't big fans of putting on vomit comets at night.

I think Nuneaton would very much be the default option - guess it depends really on the Coventry corridor.

Will ask my son , who has a job akin to yours .!

 

[All Line Rover]

It would be quite nice if the new franchise enabled departures from Euston to Birmingham after 10pm on a Saturday! It's hilarious that the last one is at 21:43.

Why is that hilarious? 21:43 is excellent compared to 17:10 for North Wales, 18:10 for Chester, 18:30 for Lancaster through Glasgow, 20:11 for Liverpool and 21:00 for Manchester.

 

[The Ham]

Why is that hilarious? 21:43 is excellent compared to 17:10 for North Wales, 18:10 for Chester, 18:30 for Lancaster through Glasgow, 20:11 for Liverpool and 21:00 for Manchester.

They are probably comparing this to a weekday departure time of 23:30 and questioning why during the week it can be done, yet on a Saturday (when people are more likely to be going to a show) the last departure is nearly 2 hours earlier.

Likewise midweek:
- Chester 21:10 (3 hours later)
- Lancaster 20:30 (2 hours later)
- Glasgow 19:30 (1 hour later)
- Liverpool 21:07 (1 hour later)
- Manchester 23:00 (2 hours later)

 

[driver_m]

Got to do maintenance at some point. Saturday has been the time to do it for a long time now.

 

[coppercapped]

Presumably revenue from running the initial years of HS2.

I don't think so. In post #634 LNW-GW Joint wrote

SNIPPED

As I see it, the WCP bid is about the current ICWC operation in terms of cold hard numbers, with the HS2 aspect being "aspirational" and financially vague for about 5 years.
They will be expected to deliver significant premiums on ICWC to fund HS2 startup.
But I think DfT wants a tame, compliant TOC rather than a bolshie lot like Virgin/Stagecoach/SNCF.
That was fine when the numbers worked, but they have been shown to have a flawed business model.

which predates Roger Ford's preview message by a day or so. (My bolding). Mr Ford wrote:

WCP comes in three parts. First, there is the franchise that will run Intercity West Coast (ICWC) services from September 2019 until the opening of High Speed 2 in 2026. This is termed the Initial Franchise Period (IFP)
Second, during this time WCP will also act as the HS2 ‘shadow operator’, responsible for planning the integration of the combined ICWC and HS2 passenger services. Finally, WCP will run the two routes as a single business from 2026 to 2031.

Specifying now the way that premiums should grow in eight or ten years time is a fools' game. Part of the problem is that government departments have 'policies' which are used as a basis for decision making so that decisions are consistent between different areas. The issues arise when the 'policies' do not fit the situation as it evolves - with the result that decisions are made which do not make sense for a particular situation.

If the DfT persist in this approach to the West Coast franchise - from the financial aspect it will go wrong.

 

[HowardGWR]

I would have thought that the safest way to let these contracts is just to, er, let the contracts, as a 'get paid for doing it' contract. Bonuses for good ops and construction performance and fines for poor performance. Government keeps the revenue.

 

[pt_mad]

It would be quite nice if the new franchise enabled departures from Euston to Birmingham after 10pm on a Saturday! It's hilarious that the last one is at 21:43.

As far as I know there's a requirement that the line closes early for engineering possessions on a Saturday night. It does seem a requirement that is specific to this route for whatever reason, but it is planned and obviously needed for the duration of the next franchise and sonethiso that will have to beloved with for essential maintenance. Would imagine tilting trains require a very strict track maintenance regime.

 

[edwin_m]

There has to be maintenance sometime and I believe the four tracks of the southern WCML are spaced so closely that certain things can't be done while a pair of them remain open. There's a 2210 from Marylebone.

 

[Class 170101]

It would be quite nice if the new franchise enabled departures from Euston to Birmingham after 10pm on a Saturday! It's hilarious that the last one is at 21:43.

Nuneaton only really works as long as there are no Coventry or International stops or you have random bustitution late at night depending on blocks. TOCs aren't big fans of putting on vomit comets at night.

Even on the East Coast there is a 22:00 to Leeds on a Saturday. I wouldn't consider it unreasonable to have a late train that misses out certain stations on an Special Traffic Basis provided its advertised well in advance. The 23:00 to Manchester I think sometimes omits Stockport but I don't think a bus is provided Remember the 23:30 to Leeds misses out Wakefield Westgate so it can go on a tour of Yorkshire. Why not let a post 22:00 Birmingham service miss out stations after Rugby therefore? It should be noted that with the block between Coventry and Proof House Jn for Saturday 26 and Sunday 27 May that Virgin are running via Stafford for their hourly London to Birmingham service rather than Nuneaton which I would have thought would be quicker.

There has to be maintenance sometime and I believe the four tracks of the southern WCML are spaced so closely that certain things can't be done while a pair of them remain open. There's a 2210 from Marylebone.

To be honest a later train to Birmingham and / or Manchester wouldn't cause maintenance time on the four track to be reduced. The last train from London leaves at 00:15 for Northampton. The last Virgin service has departed well before then.

I think Liverpool should get a half hourly all day service in the new franchise mind.

 

[6Gman]

I think Liverpool should get a half hourly all day service in the new franchise mind.

Why so?