West Coast Franchise speculation

[pt_mad]

Then you have the hordes that use the train between Brum and Coventry. People are guilty of assuming that the West Coast is purely a London service. Sure, it's ultimately the selling point, but it serves many other short routes. Prestatyn/Rhyl - Llandudno, Runcorn-Liverpool, Macc-Manchester.

There was the question during the consultation of whether some of the stops on the Coventry and Wolverhampton corridor could be removed on some services.
However this invitation to tender has gone out and the calling pattern has to as minimum remain as frequent as it is now. So that idea came as a non starter.

Operator specific tickets are already available on the route but it's done little to combat the overcrowding north of Coventry at certain times. I guess it's just going to be a fact of life for the foreseeable.

Only way around it is hope LNR run all their sets as minimum 8 cars once they get their new stock and TPE units and offer LNR only local tickets in the Coventry corridor perhaps at a cheaper price with encouragement from the DFT.

Back to capacity. No new stock means no new capacity. So one potentially 9 car (some) train per hour between Euston and Liverpool until minimum 2026. Is this going to be enough? The 1907 on a Friday is already full and standing as a matter of course and has to be first stop Runcorn in order to try and limit passenger numbers beyond over loading.

How's it going to be in 2024?

 

[Chester1]

There was the question during the consultation of whether some of the stops on the Coventry and Wolverhampton corridor could be removed on some services.
However this invitation to tender has gone out and the calling pattern has to as minimum remain as frequent as it is now. So that idea came as a non starter.

Operator specific tickets are already available on the route but it's done little to combat the overcrowding north of Coventry at certain times. I guess it's just going to be a fact of life for the foreseeable.

Only way around it is hope LNR run all their sets as minimum 8 cars once they get their new stock and TPE units and offer LNR only local tickets in the Coventry corridor perhaps at a cheaper price with encouragement from the DFT.

Back to capacity. No new stock means no new capacity. So one potentially 9 car (some) train per house between Euston and Liverpool until minimum 2026. Is this going to be enough? The 1907 on a Friday is already full and standing as a matter of course and has to be first stop Runcorn in order to try and limit passenger numbers beyond over loading.

How's it going to be in 2024?

Liverpool and Scotland (fast) services should be 11 coach units even though that means running mostly 9 car units on Manchester services. Peak time stopping patterns on all routes need to be carefully selected to limit commuter use of intercity services. Manchester services have plenty of capacity left. North of Preston passenger growth can be handled by TPE and Chiltern could run longer trains and a couple of extra express peak time express services. There is enough capacity for 4-5% growth until 2026 as long as stock allocations and stopping patterns are chose correctly and other operators take what they can. As another poster has said its just "wibble" to talk about lengthening Pendolinos, converting Voyagers or ordering new stock. The spec is very clearly to make do until 2026.

 

[Mathew S]

Peak time stopping patterns on all routes need to be carefully selected to limit commuter use of intercity services.

What about where there is, genuinely, no alternative to using intercity services for commuter travel? Wigan-Warrington-Crewe, and Preston-Lancaster being two such examples; I'm sure there are plenty of others on other parts of the network. I agree it's not ideal, but there have been opportunities to transfer these services to other franchises (or use other franchises to add commuter services on these routes) which haven't been taken (ie. Northern) so now they are part of the WCP, and need to be provided for.

The West Coast franchise is not all about intercity travel to and from London / The North West / Scotland, use by commuters is a major part of both Virgin and TPE business at present and it's not likely to change any time soon.

 

[Chester1]

What about where there is, genuinely, no alternative to using intercity services for commuter travel? Wigan-Warrington-Crewe, and Preston-Lancaster being two such examples; I'm sure there are plenty of others on other parts of the network. I agree it's not ideal, but there have been opportunities to transfer these services to other franchises (or use other franchises to add commuter services on these routes) which haven't been taken (ie. Northern) so now they are part of the WCP, and need to be provided for.

The West Coast franchise is not all about intercity travel to and from London / The North West / Scotland, use by commuters is a major part of both Virgin and TPE business at present and it's not likely to change any time soon.

It depends how practical replacement services are. For instance from May TPE will no longer serve Wigan so that the services can use the same paths north of Preston once the line via Bolton is electrified (probably now July). Northern are running a non stop Wigan NW to Manchester EMU to replace the TPE stop. Perhaps Northern could run an hourly Lancaster-Crewe EMU too? I am not saying to try to end all commuter use but selectively moving in that direction is the obvious way to ration intercity West Coast capacity until 2026.

 

[pt_mad]

Liverpool and Scotland (fast) services should be 11 coach units even though that means running mostly 9 car units on Manchester services. Peak time stopping patterns on all routes need to be carefully selected to limit commuter use of intercity services. Manchester services have plenty of capacity left. North of Preston passenger growth can be handled by TPE and Chiltern could run longer trains and a couple of extra express peak time express services. There is enough capacity for 4-5% growth until 2026 as long as stock allocations and stopping patterns are chose correctly and other operators take what they can. As another poster has said its just "wibble" to talk about lengthening Pendolinos, converting Voyagers or ordering new stock. The spec is very clearly to make do until 2026.

Capacity for 4 to 5 % growth between next year and 2026? What has growth been in the last 7 years? More than 5%. So how is it going to be enough?

Surely if any train in the timetable is currently full and standing most weeks (not including sporting events) then the capacity is not enough on that route at that time of the week at the moment, let alone in the future?

LNR have stated interest in running north of Weaver. However they have restrictions placed on them by the DFT that they can't. So any possibility of them helping out with flows between Crewe and Preston are a no no. As they aren't allowed although they stated they would have been interested in their pre franchise q and a.

I can say that some Liverpool's are still often 9 car.

As already stated, just because the spec doesn't include mandatory requirement to bid new stock, doesn't mean a bidder won't include provisions for new stock. As Firstgroup were doing in their 2012 bid. And that was years ago. LNR didn't need to bid to replace the 350/2s, but they bid new stock and this bid was chosen as the winner.

Alliance rail want to run 6 return journeys to Blackpool via Preston. Using 225 stock on the fast with an overtaking move at MKC in the xx33 path. NWR put out a written response in December saying they were working with the operator to try and make paths work. And it was down to to one clash with a northern service which it is thought may be able to be resolved.

So there's a chance a bidder could look at something like this .or try and bid for that xx33 path themselves with an overtaking move. It would make sense. And the whole point of Norton bridge upgrade was to help create at least 1 and on in theory 2 extra paths.

 

[Chester1]

Capaciry for 4 to 5 % growth between next year and 2026? What has growth been in the last 7 years? More than 5%. So how is it going to be enough?

Surely if any train in the timetable is currently full and standing most weeks (not inckudiin sporting events) then the capacity is not enough on that route at the time today, let alone in the future?

LNR have stated interest in running north of Weaver. However they have restrictions placed on them by the DFT that they can't. So any possibility of them helping out with flows between Crewe and Preston are a no no. As they aren't allowed although they stated they would have been interested in their pre franchise q and a.

I can say that some Liverpool's are still often 9 car.

The fact that some are still 9 car shows that there is still room for growth on that route by switching to all 11 coach units on Liverpool services. The first off peak train will always be overloaded and is not a reason to introduce longer trains across the EMU fleet when a new design or non tilt stock would be necessary. Its an argument for altering ticketing and stopping patterns to better distribute passengers across all routes and services. Passenger growth has slowed in the last couple of years so 4-5% seems a reasonable assumption.

If you want more unrealistic ideas then perhaps one option would be switching Birmingham to Scotland back to CrossCountry but then order new non tilt stock which would matter less north of Preston. If every Chester service then became double Voyagers and took Stafford stops from Liverpool then that would free up some seats. The real answer is to make do with existing stock and better manage demand and when necessary and possible alter or remove peak time stops.

 

[mmh]

Capacity for 4 to 5 % growth between next year and 2026? What has growth been in the last 7 years? More than 5%. So how is it going to be enough?

Surely if any train in the timetable is currently full and standing most weeks (not including sporting events) then the capacity is not enough on that route at that time of the week at the moment, let alone in the future?

LNR have stated interest in running north of Weaver. However they have restrictions placed on them by the DFT that they can't. So any possibility of them helping out with flows between Crewe and Preston are a no no. As they aren't allowed although they stated they would have been interested in their pre franchise q and a.

I can say that some Liverpool's are still often 9 car.

As already stated, just because the spec doesn't include mandatory requirement to bid new stock, doesn't mean a bidder won't include provisions for new stock. As Firstgroup were doing in their 2012 bid. And that was years ago. LNR didn't need to bid to replace the 350/2s, but they bid new stock and this bid was chosen as the winner.

Alliance rail want to run 6 return journeys to Blackpool via Preston. Using 225 stock on the fast with an overtaking move at MKC in the xx33 path. NWR put out a written response in December saying they were working with the operator to try and make paths work. And it was down to to one clash with a northern service which it is thought may be able to be resolved.

So there's a chance a bidder could look at something like this .or try and bid for that xx33 path themselves with an overtaking move. It would make sense. And the whole point of Norton bridge upgrade was to help create at least 1 and on in theory 2 extra paths.

I don't think there's any easy solution, and a lot of it is just having to try to and create the best service pattern you can with the constraints you have, including that it's nigh on impossible to classify journeys as inter-city or commuter properly. The current approach of having different stopping patterns on different end-to-end routes isn't a bad compromise. As well as needing to provide both local and inter-city service at Crewe, Warrington and Wigan, all three are significant interchanges giving connections onto the WCML from a very wide area. You can't just stop serving any of them, so you end up with patterns like Euston-Warrington. There are two other advantages to this sort of thing as well - you can provide a clock-face at least hourly service to places which possibly wouldn't have it otherwise, and can boast about the better end-to-end journey times removing stops allows.

Downgrading anywhere's service never goes down well, e.g. the complaints when Virgin mostly stopped serving the Trent Valley (although that's mitigated a lot by the LM/LNWR service there)

 

[B&I]

I think that they were saying that after HS2 is running the only services that don't currently have stops that will need to be replaced by other services on the ECML are the services to Liverpool which only have stops between Crewe and Liverpool.

What about Stafford, which is where many Liverpool passengers change to cross-country services ?

 

[HSTEd]

If you want more unrealistic ideas then perhaps one option would be switching Birmingham to Scotland back to CrossCountry but then order new non tilt stock which would matter less north of Preston. If every Chester service then became double Voyagers and took Stafford stops from Liverpool then that would free up some seats. The real answer is to make do with existing stock and better manage demand and when necessary and possible alter or remove peak time stops.

You might be able to work out something with 2+5 HSTs for XC, allowing transfer of some (or all) of their 221s back to ICWC, with their tilt reenabled.

There are enough power cars across GWR and ICEC to make ~75 sets up, Scotrail want 26 and GWR want to retain 11.

So we can have shake loose 20 sets for XC, no problem.

 

[mmh]

The fact that some are still 9 car shows that there is still room for growth on that route by switching to all 11 coach units on Liverpool services. The first off peak train will always be overloaded and is not a reason to introduce longer trains across the EMU fleet when a new design or non tilt stock would be necessary. Its an argument for altering ticketing and stopping patterns to better distribute passengers across all routes and services. Passenger growth has slowed in the last couple of years so 4-5% seems a reasonable assumption.

If you want more unrealistic ideas then perhaps one option would be switching Birmingham to Scotland back to CrossCountry but then order new non tilt stock which would matter less north of Preston. If every Chester service then became double Voyagers and took Stafford stops from Liverpool then that would free up some seats. The real answer is to make do with existing stock and better manage demand and when necessary and possible alter or remove peak time stops.

Indeed. Planning hourly double Voyager Chester terminators might not be impossible but I think it'd be tricky. They wouldn't fit in the bay platform so you'd need to turn them in platform 3 or 4 without them getting in the way of everything else. Or you could run them into North Wales. Llandudno Junction has platform capacity for it, but I don't know if the track layout/signalling would allow changing direction to/from the west in platform 1 or 4, otherwise it's Bangor and/or Holyhead. And any of them would need even more rolling stock which doesn't exist and be a massive over supply of capacity.

This stuff isn't easy. I think you're right, the sensible way of looking at it is to try and work out how many people want to go from where to where at what times and tweak accordingly.

 

[DenmarkRail]

What about Stafford, which is where many Liverpool passengers change to cross-country services ?

London to Liverpool will link to HS2 via junction just after Litchfield or something like that... Therefore meaning Stafford, Runcorn, and Liverpool won't be left out.

 

[Mathew S]

It depends how practical replacement services are. For instance from May TPE will no longer serve Wigan so that the services can use the same paths north of Preston once the line via Bolton is electrified (probably now July). Northern are running a non stop Wigan NW to Manchester EMU to replace the TPE stop. Perhaps Northern could run an hourly Lancaster-Crewe EMU too? I am not saying to try to end all commuter use but selectively moving in that direction is the obvious way to ration intercity West Coast capacity until 2026.

I agree. But the problem is that the opportunity to do that has now been missed and don't come around again until the next Northern franchise is let... in 2025. Given that there's not enough stock to run the current Northern franchise, adding extra services to it, services which are not in the franchise requirements, looks like something of a no go.

Allowing LNR to run to Preston, or ideally Lancaster, would have been an ideal option, but that's not happening either.

There is, if I'm not mistaken, an hourly path between Crewe and Lancaster which Northern could use (eg http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y27984/2018/05/21/advanced). But these seem to be being used for something else. Testing/training with new stock perhaps?

Anyway, as things stand, I can't see any realistic option other than keeping the current West Coast services on these routes.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Downgrading anywhere's service never goes down well, e.g. the complaints when Virgin mostly stopped serving the Trent Valley (although that's mitigated a lot by the LM/LNWR service there)

We're at STA so it doesn't make much of a difference, as we retained our VT service... The LNWR stoppers are inconvenient because:
-They take ages - 2hrs, compared to 1hr 19mins of VT
-They are flooded with people from all the stations along the way
-Sunday ones go via Northampton which is just a pain
-First class is just.... Eh

That being said, I see that they serve a purpose for being the 'EasyJet' of the railways... Good price, and fairly frequent. I see Virgin as a more premium 'Air France' service...

 

[Chester1]

Indeed. Planning hourly double Voyager Chester terminators might not be impossible but I think it'd be tricky. They wouldn't fit in the bay platform so you'd need to turn them in platform 3 or 4 without them getting in the way of everything else. Or you could run them into North Wales. Llandudno Junction has platform capacity for it, but I don't know if the track layout/signalling would allow changing direction to/from the west in platform 1 or 4, otherwise it's Bangor and/or Holyhead. And any of them would need even more rolling stock which doesn't exist and be a massive over supply of capacity.

This stuff isn't easy. I think you're right, the sensible way of looking at it is to try and work out how many people want to go from where to where at what times and tweak accordingly.

Chester station can handle more double Voyager services. There is also a proposal to build a platform 8 on some of the sidings for Merseyrail services which would mean platform 7 would mostly be free for east bound through services. The 130 minute limit in the spec would allow for one extra stop e.g. Stafford. The main issue with doubling more Chester to London services is that it would require finding alternative stock for London-Birmingham-Scotland.

A Preston-Crewe Northern EMU service if possible to path would allow Crewe to be removed from London to Glasgow fast services which would provide much needed capacity for the other stops on the service and the service via Birmingham would still provide the connections to Crewe.

 

[Mathew S]

A Preston-Crewe Northern EMU service if possible to path would allow Crewe to be removed from London to Glasgow fast services

The hourly London/Glasgow fasts don't stop at Crewe anyway, their first stop Warrington. The Crewe stop is on the slower, via Brum, service.

 

[Agent_Squash]

Good price, and fairly frequent. I see Virgin as a more premium 'Air France' service...

Surely Virgin will be a more premium 'Virgin' service, considering they have an airline?

 

[Chester1]

The hourly London/Glasgow fasts don't stop at Crewe anyway, they're first stop Warrington. The Crewe stop is on the slower, via Brum, service.

I thought they did for some but I appear to be wrong!

 

[The Planner]

They are NOT additionals.
You have advised us that classic compatibles cannot venture north of Macclesfield to Cheadle Hulme.
Hence the 3 trains per hour Manchester to London will route via Crewe - unless I'm missing something.

Aaah, with you now. Yes, some serious headscratching is going to be done over Crewe to Manchester and I don't think anyone has an answer yet.

 

[driver_m]

You can send a double voyager to Llandudno Jn. There's no issue turning one round there. There is at Bangor though. No safe walking route through the tunnel to change ends. Only good for a single set that can be walked through. Rhyl also ok for a double turnround.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why can classic compatibles not go north of Macc? They haven’t even been designed yet.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Surely Virgin will be a more premium 'Virgin' service, considering they have an airline?

Virgin ATL is part owned by Air France (well will be, once the deal is approved), Virgin America is fully owned and in the process of winding up operations, by Alaska Group, and Virgin Australia is an Etihad airlines partner.

Also Virgin airlines are pretty rubbish, although VTWC, and VTEC are amazingly well operated, given the circumstances.

 

[B&I]

London to Liverpool will link to HS2 via junction just after Litchfield or something like that... Therefore meaning Stafford, Runcorn, and Liverpool won't be left out.

Are you sure ? I thought Liverpool's services now omitted Stafford ans both joined HS2 after Crewe.

I find myself mystified why, with 2 HS2 services to other cities' 3 per hour, half the number of seats to London that other cities will have per serbice due to the lack of a dedicated HS2 connection, and no services to Birmingham via HS2 (relying instead on a glorified outer suburban service), Liverpool is then first in line to lose any residual service on the WCML. If one needs to be scrapped, take it off Manchester. It'll not notice the difference.

 

[The Planner]

Why can classic compatibles not go north of Macc? They haven’t even been designed yet.

They can, no space on the graph for them though.

 

[pt_mad]

Indeed. Planning hourly double Voyager Chester terminators might not be impossible but I think it'd be tricky. They wouldn't fit in the bay platform so you'd need to turn them in platform 3 or 4 without them getting in the way of everything else. Or you could run them into North Wales. Llandudno Junction has platform capacity for it, but I don't know if the track layout/signalling would allow changing direction to/from the west in platform 1 or 4, otherwise it's Bangor and/or Holyhead. And any of them would need even more rolling stock which doesn't exist and be a massive over supply of capacity.

This stuff isn't easy. I think you're right, the sensible way of looking at it is to try and work out how many people want to go from where to where at what times and tweak accordingly.

But you can't tweek it accordingly as Manchester has to retain 3 WCML services an hour to London .so if you work out that it needs to be ever so slightly tipped a little bit more towards Liverpool than it is, you can't do anything about it.

Many many posters have said in the past a lot of Manchester services carry hot in air in the off peak. But the Liverpool's appear fuller. But nothing at all can be done about that. Stockport will enjoy 3tph to London and Liverpool one.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also Virgin airlines are pretty rubbish, although VTWC, and VTEC are amazingly well operated, given the circumstances.

I find VTWC really very good apart from the Coach K debacle and the tendency to ignore ticket validities when they don’t like them.

 

[Chester1]

But you can't tweek it accordingly as Manchester has to retain 3 WCML services an hour to London .so if you work out that it needs to be ever so slightly tipped a little bit more towards Liverpool than it is, you can't do anything about it.

Many many posters have said in the past a lot of Manchester services carry hot in air in the off peak. But the Liverpool's appear fuller. But nothing at all can be done about that. Stockport will enjoy 3tph to London and Liverpool one.

You can run Manchester services with 9 coach units and all Liverpool with 11 coach units and switch peak time Stafford stops to other services. London Northwestern is extending 1tph of London to Birmingham services to Liverpool from December next year as well.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Are you sure ? I thought Liverpool's services now omitted Stafford ans both joined HS2 after Crewe.

I find myself mystified why, with 2 HS2 services to other cities' 3 per hour, half the number of seats to London that other cities will have per serbice due to the lack of a dedicated HS2 connection, and no services to Birmingham via HS2 (relying instead on a glorified outer suburban service), Liverpool is then first in line to lose any residual service on the WCML. If one needs to be scrapped, take it off Manchester. It'll not notice the difference.

This was the last that I heard, and have not heard anything about it NOT including. Also my councillor's newsletter from Nov / Dec 2017 mentioned it happening:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/hs2-hub-connect-staffordshire-high-12109444
https://www.expressandstar.com/news...overhaul-derelict-land-in-stafford-unveiled-/

I would have thought that if this was scrapped, then I would have heard at least some out cry

 

[DenmarkRail]

You can run Manchester services with 9 coach units and all Liverpool with 11 coach units and switch peak time Stafford stops to other services. London Northwestern is extending 1tph of London to Birmingham services to Liverpool from December next year as well.

I can see the benefit of switching an hourly STA - Liverpool with a STA - Liverpool every other hour, and replacing the other with an STA - Glasgow service.

Manchester is already served well from Stafford on Cross Country.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Are you sure ? I thought Liverpool's services now omitted Stafford ans both joined HS2 after Crewe.

Liverpool services still call at Stafford (except maybe the odd peak one).
For HS2 Phase 1 they will join HS2 at Handsacre Junction which will be close to Armitage on the classic line.
So no problem continuing to call at Stafford.
For Phase 2a they will use HS2 to Crewe, and for 2b they will dive under Crewe and have another route into Liverpool.
There may well be a second train which is a combined Liverpool/Preston one, splitting at Crewe.

There's no particular reason why Stafford is served by Liverpool trains, it's just how the stops were distributed in the VHF timetable.
It also gives Stafford a rather pointless 3tph to Liverpool.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Liverpool services still call at Stafford (except maybe the odd peak one).
For HS2 Phase 1 they will join HS2 at Handsacre Junction which will be close to Armitage on the classic line.
So no problem continuing to call at Stafford.
For Phase 2a they will use HS2 to Crewe, and for 2b they will dive under Crewe and have another route into Liverpool.
There may well be a second train which is a combined Liverpool/Preston one, splitting at Crewe.

There's no particular reason why Stafford is served by Liverpool trains, it's just how the stops were distributed in the VHF timetable.
It also gives Stafford a rather pointless 3tph to Liverpool.

So Stafford will gain a HS2 service, and then loose it a few years later? Seems silly.

The 3tph to Liverpool is annoying. Would rather them keep the LNWR one, and replace the VT ones with Scotland services.