West Coast Franchise speculation

[route101]

Noticed on my last few pendo trips that the wee displays just reserved . Not where to or from Wigan to Carlisle for example .

 

[The Ham]

If you could build 10*6 coach units to replace half the 221's (if funding wasn't too expensive) then that's 60 coaches.

Do the same again and store 3 of each of the current 9 coach units to create a fleet of 41*6 coach units and you'd be able to run all EMU services as either 11 or 12 coach trains, but with the flexibility to run then as 6 coach trains for quieter services.

That would be an order of 120 coaches which would probably be about enough to get a reasonable deal.

What needs to be considered is that at some point there's going to be a need for replacement trains for the 390's and so by getting some more in the next few years it could be beneficial longer term.

It also depends on who wins the franchise, as it could be that they may wish to use tilting trains elsewhere (much as first had done with the 80x's).

 

[DenmarkRail]

The whole point of HS2 is to add the extra capacity, not to replace existing capacity on the West Coast. The fact that HS2 will be faster, is just an added bonus. The new West Coast franchise, and ones after this won't slow down their existing services, or cancel existing services, because then we'd be in the same situation of having not enough capacity on the lines leaving London for the north.

I can see the point in removing SOME fast services to Manchester on the WCML, but given that HS2 will avoid many of the stations that these services call at, there will always be a need for them, as simply put, HS2 will serve different areas to the WCML. The only real viable service to remove from the West Coast would be the London to Liverpool, where it will be on HS2 until a junction where it will join the WCML before Stafford. This would allow extra paths between London and Litchfield / Stafford on the West Coast mainline for new Trent Valley Stoppers, utilising the existing class 390 fleet.

 

[JamesT]

The whole point of HS2 is to add the extra capacity, not to replace existing capacity on the West Coast. The fact that HS2 will be faster, is just an added bonus. The new West Coast franchise, and ones after this won't slow down their existing services, or cancel existing services, because then we'd be in the same situation of having not enough capacity on the lines leaving London for the north.

I can see the point in removing SOME fast services to Manchester on the WCML, but given that HS2 will avoid many of the stations that these services call at, there will always be a need for them, as simply put, HS2 will serve different areas to the WCML. The only real viable service to remove from the West Coast would be the London to Liverpool, where it will be on HS2 until a junction where it will join the WCML before Stafford. This would allow extra paths between London and Litchfield / Stafford on the West Coast mainline for new Trent Valley Stoppers, utilising the existing class 390 fleet.

The Wikipedia page on HS2 has peak hour ‘intercity’ capacity at Euston dropping from 5800 seats to 1800. That’s presumably the current Virgin fleet. ‘Commuter’ capacity rises from 4500 to 13300, but it’s not clear which franchise would supply that. HS2 then adds 19800 seats on top.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If you could build 10*6 coach units to replace half the 221's (if funding wasn't too expensive) then that's 60 coaches.

Do the same again and store 3 of each of the current 9 coach units to create a fleet of 41*6 coach units and you'd be able to run all EMU services as either 11 or 12 coach trains, but with the flexibility to run then as 6 coach trains for quieter services.

Pendolinos are very long vehicles - 24/25m long - a 12-car set would overhang most platforms.

 

[driver_m]

I don't understand why so many people seem think the new franchise's main goal should be to turn the WCML back to a 110mph and slower railway. The Voyagers are 16 years old and the Pendolinos between 6 and 16, so they're not going to be scrapped any time soon.

There's no point to 125mph non-tilt stock, other than to be able to cascade it to 125mph non-tilt lines later on. You may as well have a 110mph EMU, and then you probably end up with something more like a 350 with a better interior than a 390...

Amen. Someone that gets it. The wibble is strong on this thread. You'd think pendos could be just randomly chopped and reformed by just treating them like a set of mk1's , downgrade a Welsh service that is a political hot potato at the best of times, rediagram trains without any thought of how they interact with everything else on the line, use pendos on drags even though they were designed for coupling up in emergencies only, not daily drags and the inevitable scrapline full of voyagers. No one has even mentioned that fact that the franchise requires trains to be fitted with DO equipment! May as well throw it in and have the inevitable 'debate' about it.

 

[tomuk]

You have decided to conclude I am a guy? Thanks. And you did yourself refer to bi mode as simply to stop questions to the government about botched up electrification. That seems equally glass half empty. But anyway we're not forum members to judge each other or to throw stones. But to debate the railway.

Bi mode are the thing at the moment whether we agree or not and it just makes sense to have them on north Wales with the current set up. And voyagers to Scotland for the foreesefore is just not logical.

And nobody can be certain HS2 won't over run. There's also the HS2 stations to construct. Many many rail infrastructure projects run late and it's not a case of glass half empty it's a case of the track record and the fact nothing on this scale has been done for yonks and we haven't seen a safety fence along the route yet. Someone said last week they havnt even opened the college to train the engineers.

I'm assuming the build would probably need to be complete during 2025 in order for testing and safety checks and the passing of stations etc.

As for diesel. Diesel emissions do kill people in the long run Fact. Sorry. London smog in the sunnsu doesn't exactly feel nice on the lungs. Diesel cars are going to be phased out of production by 2040. That's on all partys' agenda and it must be for good reason.

I hadn't concluded that you were male or female. I was just using guy in a colloquial sense. Maybe I should have said person instead.

Regarding the government, Chris Grayling, electrification and bi-modes. He claimed that as bi-modes provide the same 'customer benefits' as an electric train there was no need to electrify all the way to Bristol Temple Meads and could save £130m. What he then forget to say was that it would cost £340m extra to fit the diesel engines to make the IEPs bi-mode. I would rather my taxes were spent more efficiently.

It makes no sense to drag around the tonnes of diesel engines, cooler groups and fuel under a bi-mode to allow a train to run 60 miles to Shrewsbury or 200 miles to Holyhead and back. Pull the Pendo/other EMU with a loco. And for those who say it takes too long to couple. Fit the loco with autocouplers and if necessary do the couple off the mainline outside Oxley or Crewe IEMD. A tilting bi-mode would be worse carrying all the weight of the tilting mechanism as well.

You say there isn't a safety fence along the route yet. Well there are plenty of hoardings up around Euston ready for the demolition and ongoing enabling works. And funnily enough I drove past the HS2 college in Birmingham last week with its catenary outside and 373 inside. HS2 is happening and hopefully as with Crossrail should open around the planned time and within budget.

Diesel emissions don't kill people in the long run. FACT. They may shorten your life a bit just as smoking, drinking too many glasses of red wine in the evening or eating too many burger will. The emissions from a diesel engine with proper after treatment such as Adblue are tiny. Plus they produce less CO2 then the equivalent petrol, all the better for climate change. There is going to have to be a massive improvement in battery technology and a large investment in the power grid to get rid of diesel/petrol car and vans by 2040 whatever the government may wish.

 

[mmh]

Amen. Someone that gets it. The wibble is strong on this thread. You'd think pendos could be just randomly chopped and reformed by just treating them like a set of mk1's , downgrade a Welsh service that is a political hot potato at the best of times, rediagram trains without any thought of how they interact with everything else on the line, use pendos on drags even though they were designed for coupling up in emergencies only, not daily drags and the inevitable scrapline full of voyagers. No one has even mentioned that fact that the franchise requires trains to be fitted with DO equipment! May as well throw it in and have the inevitable 'debate' about it.

Spot on. I might be biased as I'm from North Wales, but this idea many seem to have that the only purpose of the WCML fast lines is to get people from London to Manchester is utter nonsense. Reducing and slowing Chester's pretty amazing London service compared to a decade ago won't go down well at all. As for talk of hauling 390s again, no thanks. As you say the main reason for that was purely down to political interference over breakfasts, which is the same reason the 221s have the former 1st/standard convertible coach in them. "There's not enough first class". There probably wasn't on some trains, but the real solution was to double up the busiest Holyhead trains, and now there's no problem.

Voyagers might not be perfect, but my experience is passengers actually quite like them providing they get a seat. They got rid of the 20 minute decouple-and-run-around palaver at Crewe, let's not return to that. The only reason I miss it is it used to be enjoyable for the annoucement of "we'll be here for a while, so if you want to step off onto the platform for a cigarette feel free". That's not going to come back!

The journey I do most on the WCML is Llandudno Junction to Euston, and at 3 hours or slightly under it's a lot quicker than it used to be, even compared to the strange mid-afternoon mk3 train that stopped Holyhead-Bangor-Llandudno Junction-Chester-Crewe-Euston only while the Voyagers were being introduced. Slowing all the improved "outposts" on the Virgin network because no-one needs 125mph any more will cause a lot of hoo-hah.

 

[pt_mad]

I hadn't concluded that you were male or female. I was just using guy in a colloquial sense. Maybe I should have said person instead.

Regarding the government, Chris Grayling, electrification and bi-modes. He claimed that as bi-modes provide the same 'customer benefits' as an electric train there was no need to electrify all the way to Bristol Temple Meads and could save £130m. What he then forget to say was that it would cost £340m extra to fit the diesel engines to make the IEPs bi-mode. I would rather my taxes were spent more efficiently.

It makes no sense to drag around the tonnes of diesel engines, cooler groups and fuel under a bi-mode to allow a train to run 60 miles to Shrewsbury or 200 miles to Holyhead and back. Pull the Pendo/other EMU with a loco. And for those who say it takes too long to couple. Fit the loco with autocouplers and if necessary do the couple off the mainline outside Oxley or Crewe IEMD. A tilting bi-mode would be worse carrying all the weight of the tilting mechanism as well.

You say there isn't a safety fence along the route yet. Well there are plenty of hoardings up around Euston ready for the demolition and ongoing enabling works. And funnily enough I drove past the HS2 college in Birmingham last week with its catenary outside and 373 inside. HS2 is happening and hopefully as with Crossrail should open around the planned time and within budget.

Diesel emissions don't kill people in the long run. FACT. They may shorten your life a bit just as smoking, drinking too many glasses of red wine in the evening or eating too many burger will. The emissions from a diesel engine with proper after treatment such as Adblue are tiny. Plus they produce less CO2 then the equivalent petrol, all the better for climate change. There is going to have to be a massive improvement in battery technology and a large investment in the power grid to get rid of diesel/petrol car and vans by 2040 whatever the government may wish.

Well I'd be all for pulling a Pendo with a loco through the non wired sections if that was a better solution. And maybe it is I don't know. Let's not go on with the debate about how bad diesels are for our health. I say they help to kill us with bad air, you say they shorten life but are better than petrol. We can both surely agree that they are not good for us and it's not a great arrangement continuing running them to Crewe and or Scotland fully under the wires every day until maximum 2031. And electric trains are far far better where there are wires.

You also make some good points about hauling a fuel tank under a bimode tilting train. And I don't know the technical ins and outs of how economical or not that would be under the wires. But anything just anything that removes fully diesel trains from under the wires on the WCML sometime between now and 2026 is so very welcome and can only be a good thing. It can't be a bad thing can it?


And to the comment someone made earlier about people wanting to scrap the voyagers. Nobody is suggesting scrapping them. They could be used on a fully diesel route where they can be justified such as Chiltern or Birmingham to Cardiff or Cambridge, or on the Liverpool Norwich, or to allow XC to run longer diesel trains between Bristol and Newcastle, which is majority not wired south of Doncaster. Or to Wales. Or Birmingham to Aberystwyth. I'm sure there are other suitable diesel routes.


Nearly everyone must surely be able to agree that giving provisions to continue Voyagers running under the wires Euston to Scotland and Euston to Crewe until 2031 if needed is far from ideal, economical, ethical or sensible?

 

[mmh]

Well I'd be all for pulling a Pendo with a loco through the non wired sections if that was a better solution. And maybe it is I don't know. Let's not go on with the debate about how bad diesels are for our health. I say they help to kill us with bad air, you say they shorten life but are better than petrol. We can both surely agree that they are not good for us and it's not a great arrangement continuing running them to Crewe and or Scotland fully under the wires every day until maximum 2031. And electric trains are far far better where there are wires.

You also make some good points about hauling a fuel tank under a bimode tilting train. And I don't know the technical ins and outs of how economical or not that would be under the wires. But anything just anything that removes fully diesel trains from under the wires on the WCML sometime between now and 2026 is so very welcome and can only be a good thing. It can't be a bad thing can it?


And to the comment someone made earlier about people wanting to scrap the voyagers. Nobody is suggesting scrapping them. They could be used on a fully diesel route where they can be justified such as Chiltern or Birmingham to Cardiff or Cambridge, or to allow XC to run longer diesel trains between Bristol and Newcastle, which is majority not wired south of Doncaster. Or to Wales. I'm sure there are other suitable diesel routes.


Nearly everyone must surely be able to agree that giving provisions to continue Voyagers running under the wires Euston to Scotland and Euston to Crewe until 2031 if needed is far from ideal, economical, ethical or sensible?

I can't help but think obsession with diesels under wires is a bit of a distraction really. Yes it's not ideal, but only 38% of the network is electrified and according to Wonkypedia 60% of passenger miles are electrified so shifting some Voyagers around is going to have little difference.

Plus I'm a bit confused why it's acceptable to use a Voyager under the wires on Cross Country but not Virgin WC. Is there something different about the 2.5 /3 hours between Edinburgh and York/Doncaster and the 1.5 hours between Crewe and Euston that makes it better?

The Voyager is the only suitable train that exists for WCML services that continue beyond electrification, and no amount of worrying about diesel will change that in the short or mid-term

 

[pt_mad]

I can't help but think obsession with diesels under wires is a bit of a distraction really. Yes it's not ideal, but only 38% of the network is electrified and according to Wonkypedia 60% of passenger miles are electrified so shifting some Voyagers around is going to have little difference.

Plus I'm a bit confused why it's acceptable to use a Voyager under the wires on Cross Country but not Virgin WC. Is there something different about the 2.5 /3 hours between Edinburgh and York/Doncaster and the 1.5 hours between Crewe and Euston that makes it better?

The Voyager is the only suitable train that exists for WCML services that continue beyond electrification, and no amount of worrying about diesel will change that in the short or mid-term

I was waiting for that question to come up as soon as I wrote voyagers could help lengthen trains on Bristol to Newcastle. Note I did include other better examples where voyagers could be used. And I said only Bristol to Newcastle and not any Edinburgh or Manchester workings. As I strongly suspect the next XC fran will include firm provisions for the use of bi mode in a more pronounced way.

I know I know that most of the network is non wired. And where there are no wires we have to run diesels as things stand so that's not up for debate right now. We are talking about the WCML and rolling stock seems to be refreshed, reviewed, and updated as the franchises come up. And it's this one's time. The other two comparable franchises have been deemed suitable for bi mode. So I would have thought WCML suitable as regards Chester and Holyhead. And stopping the use of Voyagers on the fully electric Scottish services.


I may be a lover of the environment but this re let seems the logical and only time before 2030 to get the stock sorted otherwise it will end up as it is now with the Voyagers until my kids are grown up!

Also note the mid life Pendolino refresh and relivery that is going on right now. Notice the voyagers arent being done dispite being just as old. Do you think maybe VT would like to get rid of them should they win again and the leasing company aren't sure whether they'll be wanted on the West Coast by any of the bidders for sure? Hence no mid life overhaul which must be due by now as they are about equal age?
However it's pretty certain the Pendos will have a home there so the mid life was always going to be worth getting on with in their case. Which they have done.

No generic livery refresh and repaint by bombardier for the voyagers though for some reason?

 

[The Ham]

Pendolinos are very long vehicles - 24/25m long - a 12-car set would overhang most platforms.

Given that lengthening of the 390's to 12 coach units was cited as an alternative to building HS2, and Liverpool was cited as the biggest problem to this proposal, I would guess that it's maybe not as big a problem as you make out.

Once you get past a certain point (where the train could split to serve two destinations) then the problem ceases as you'll then only be running a 6 coach unit.

By my maths a 6+6 coach train with 25m end coaches would be 292m long, how many stations served by ICWC would have platforms that would be too short for these trains?

Then of these how many would it still be possible to use such a train using ASDO without causing any problems, or only minimal problems in that the rear door or two wouldn't be able to be used?

IIRC weren't there going to be mini Pendolinos as part of the failed ICWV franchise in 2012, if so weren't these going to be 6 coach units?

 

[B&I]

The whole point of HS2 is to add the extra capacity, not to replace existing capacity on the West Coast. The fact that HS2 will be faster, is just an added bonus. The new West Coast franchise, and ones after this won't slow down their existing services, or cancel existing services, because then we'd be in the same situation of having not enough capacity on the lines leaving London for the north.

I can see the point in removing SOME fast services to Manchester on the WCML, but given that HS2 will avoid many of the stations that these services call at, there will always be a need for them, as simply put, HS2 will serve different areas to the WCML. The only real viable service to remove from the West Coast would be the London to Liverpool, where it will be on HS2 until a junction where it will join the WCML before Stafford. This would allow extra paths between London and Litchfield / Stafford on the West Coast mainline for new Trent Valley Stoppers, utilising the existing class 390 fleet.

Sorry, why is it viable to remove completely Liverpool's service but not anywhere else's ?

 

[The Ham]

Sorry, why is it viable to remove completely Liverpool's service but not anywhere else's ?

I think that they were saying that after HS2 is running the only services that don't currently have stops that will need to be replaced by other services on the ECML are the services to Liverpool which only have stops between Crewe and Liverpool.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Also note the mid life Pendolino refresh and relivery that is going on right now. Notice the voyagers arent being done dispite being just as old. Do you think maybe VT would like to get rid of them should they win again and the leasing company aren't sure whether they'll be wanted on the West Coast by any of the bidders for sure? Hence no mid life overhaul which must be due by now as they are about equal age?
However it's pretty certain the Pendos will have a home there so the mid life was always going to be worth getting on with in their case. Which they have done.
No generic livery refresh and repaint by bombardier for the voyagers though for some reason?

Two possible reasons:
a) the Voyager fleet is on a different life cycle regime which is driven more by the XC contract than the VT one, being the larger portion of the fleet.
b) all spend on the VT fleet has to be authorised by DfT under the Direct Awards. The 390s got away with the minimum necessary (repaint, wifi etc).
It's very likely DfT doesn't want to spend more than it has to before refranchising.
Even the repaint is mostly "debranded".

A third possibility is that DfT expects they will be replaced for WCP, and wants to put Voyager refurbs off until their fate is settled in the WCP/EMT/XC rebids.

 

[DenmarkRail]

I think that they were saying that after HS2 is running the only services that don't currently have stops that will need to be replaced by other services on the ECML are the services to Liverpool which only have stops between Crewe and Liverpool.

Yes - The current London to Liverpool stops only at Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, and Liverpool.

With HS2, the trains will link onto the WCML just before Stafford, so classic compatible trains will use both the HS2 line and the West Coast Line. This will allow the Liverpool services using the entire West Coast Line to be replaced by services that use the HS2 line before Stafford.

This will give a number of benefits to services as a whole which include:
- New rolling stock
- Faster journey times (due to the HS2 section)
- the potential for a rebuild of Stafford Station
- extra paths between London and Stafford on the west coast, vacated by the old London to Liverpool

 

[Bletchleyite]

No one has even mentioned that fact that the franchise requires trains to be fitted with DO equipment! May as well throw it in and have the inevitable 'debate' about it.

Existing ones or just any new ones?

 

[Bletchleyite]

The whole point of HS2 is to add the extra capacity

Line capacity, not capacity to present destinations. The purpose of it is basically to make the WCML a 6-track railway (8-track south of Watford), but with the super-fast pair in a different location due to cost and avoidance of disruption. Think Swiss or German Neubaustrecke more than the French concepts.

The present service pattern will not continue on the classic lines. The idea is that moving services like Manchester, Scotland, Liverpool etc onto HS2 will allow the operation of a larger number of slower and semifast services such as the present LNR Trent Valley service and the commuter services south of Northampton as well as increased freight capacity.

It might well be the case that a 110mph railway is just fine for that purpose. 4tph at the Trent valley local stations, say? Once HS2 opens, the rump WCML will be about capacity, not speed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

By my maths a 6+6 coach train with 25m end coaches would be 292m long, how many stations served by ICWC would have platforms that would be too short for these trains?

MKC certainly, though I don't think anything hanging off the back would be foul. There would also be some Euston platforms that would be too short.

IIRC weren't there going to be mini Pendolinos as part of the failed ICWV franchise in 2012, if so weren't these going to be 6 coach units?

There were, but they were going to be used on Birmingham to Scotland and would not have run in multiple. Given the overcrowding on the former Voyager service, and given that Pendolinos have a lot of wasted space in the end coaches compared with Voyagers, the idea was utter madness, and the idea that was actually implemented, running through to Euston in a Wolves path using mostly 9 and 11-car Pendolinos, has been a runaway success and was a far better idea - and to improve (read "get Voyagers off") that, more full length Pendolinos would be preferable.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There were, but they were going to be used on Birmingham to Scotland and would not have run in multiple. Given the overcrowding on the former Voyager service, and given that Pendolinos have a lot of wasted space in the end coaches compared with Voyagers, the idea was utter madness, and the idea that was actually implemented, running through to Euston in a Wolves path using mostly 9 and 11-car Pendolinos, has been a runaway success and was a far better idea - and to improve (read "get Voyagers off") that, more full length Pendolinos would be preferable.

We never saw the full scope of the 2012 bids, but supposedly First proposed EMUs which would be loco-hauled off-wire.
Loco change was supposed to be as fast as splitting Voyagers is now (pretty quick).
All part of the "no need for bi-mode" industry push which failed to persuade DfT of its merits for IEP.
Anyway, now the driver is HS2 and reconfiguring the WCML to suit.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Line capacity, not capacity to present destinations. The purpose of it is basically to make the WCML a 6-track railway (8-track south of Watford), but with the super-fast pair in a different location due to cost and avoidance of disruption. Think Swiss or German Neubaustrecke more than the French concepts.

The present service pattern will not continue on the classic lines. The idea is that moving services like Manchester, Scotland, Liverpool etc onto HS2 will allow the operation of a larger number of slower and semifast services such as the present LNR Trent Valley service and the commuter services south of Northampton as well as increased freight capacity.

It might well be the case that a 110mph railway is just fine for that purpose. 4tph at the Trent valley local stations, say? Once HS2 opens, the rump WCML will be about capacity, not speed.

A fair amount of the WC will still need to have a focus on speed... The Liverpool branch will be taking HS2 Classic Compatible trains, and I'm guessing Scotland will too... There would be no use in saying that after a train leaves HS2, it will be limited to 110 mph.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A fair amount of the WC will still need to have a focus on speed... The Liverpool branch will be taking HS2 Classic Compatible trains, and I'm guessing Scotland will too... There would be no use in saying that after a train leaves HS2, it will be limited to 110 mph.

But not south of Birmingham, certainly, where it'll be about more semifast type services and is likely to look more like a bigger, electric version of Chiltern.

 

[All Line Rover]

I would still expect a degree of non-stop 125mph running between at least Colwich and Milton Keynes. Even the Chester/Holyhead services have a surprisingly large number of people alighting/boarding at Milton Keynes, some of whom presumably transfer to other services for e.g. Hemel Hempstead. These people - and no doubt the politicians of Milton Keynes - would be greatly displeased if all services were downgraded to 110mph with calls at all Trent Valley stations.

And if some Pendolinos/Voyagers run fast as far as Milton Keynes, I would expect them to run fast between Milton Keynes and Euston so that Milton Keynes' existing fast Euston service is not downgraded.

 

[The Planner]

Bear in mind that its only north of Crewe that the 110mph comes into play, south of there there is no reason to not run at 125mph even if you are stopping at Watford, MK and Rugby.

I will quote myself here from yesterday, there is no reason to downgrade to 110mph south of Crewe. I would fully expect the WCP franchise holder to expect to run 125mph trains once HS2 opens.

 

[Chester1]

I will quote myself here from yesterday, there is no reason to downgrade to 110mph south of Crewe. I would fully expect the WCP franchise holder to expect to run 125mph trains once HS2 opens.

I think they will need to run:

- Holyhead/Chester to London - 7 units
- London-Birmingham-Scotland - 12 units
- Liverpool to London (to supplement HS2 service until a second HS2 service in 2033) - 6 units
- 5 spare units

If Holyhead-Crewe section was locos hauling Pendolinos then something like 30 would need to be retained. That would mean 26 Pendolinos and all 20 Voyagers going off lease.

 

[The Planner]

Liverpool will get 2tph from the start, not 2033.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think they will need to run:

- Holyhead/Chester to London - 7 units
- London-Birmingham-Scotland - 12 units
- Liverpool to London (to supplement HS2 service until a second HS2 service in 2033) - 6 units
- 5 spare units

If Holyhead-Crewe section was locos hauling Pendolinos then something like 30 would need to be retained. That would mean 26 Pendolinos and all 20 Voyagers going off lease.

I can see a number of Pendolinos ending up with whatever LNR is called by then to run faster commuter services, so I can't see them getting scrapped or similar. The 350s so released could be used to make all peak local services on the south WCML 12-car, and all other services 8, which would mean a seat for almost everyone.

 

[pt_mad]

I will quote myself here from yesterday, there is no reason to downgrade to 110mph south of Crewe. I would fully expect the WCP franchise holder to expect to run 125mph trains once HS2 opens.

But will the DFT and NWR have a desire to continue maintaining the southern end classic fast lines to the level needed for 125 tilt? Presumably maintaining then for max 110mph is cheaper as it was such a mare upgrading them from 110 to 125 tilt to begin with?


Besides that, if a new classic electric fleet is needed for the old WCML from the early 2030s onwards, maybe tilt won't be part of that procurement and thus the max as things stand south of armitage at least would be max 110 non tilt?

 

[The Planner]

Track category still stays the same so maintenance shouldnt alter.

 

[Bald Rick]

But will the DFT and NWR have a desire to continue maintaining the southern end classic fast lines to the level needed for 125 tilt? Presumably maintaining then for max 110mph is cheaper as it was such a mare upgrading them from 110 to 125 tilt to begin with?


Besides that, if a new classic electric fleet is needed for the old WCML from the early 2030s onwards, maybe tilt won't be part of that procurement and thus the max as things stand south of armitage at least would be max 110 non tilt?

There is a very big difference between maintaining a line at 125mph, and upgrading the specification for it to get to 125mph in the first place.

Indeed the difference in maintenance regime for 125mph vs 110mph is marginal.