West Coast Franchise speculation

[mmh]

By not selling any open tickets that are eligible for travel on West Coast franchise services i.e. by only selling LNWR only season tickets and anytime returns. If the aim of the franchise was to fill as many seats as possible while avoiding overcrowding then seat and service specific tickets only would be the best option. Its not an uncommon approach to long distance services globally. Having fully loaded trains and reasonably priced tickets at peak times could politically outweigh maximum revanue. It would be much easier to introduce for HS2 than WCML services though.

I don't understand what problem the advocates of reservation only trains are trying to solve. It would be impossible to work anyway. There are short journeys where West Coast is the only operator, and others where it provides a large chunk of the service (including, err, Chester to Crewe). Then there's all the season ticket holders too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't understand what problem the advocates of reservation only trains are trying to solve. It would be impossible to work anyway. There are short journeys where West Coast is the only operator, and others where it provides a large chunk of the service (including, err, Chester to Crewe). Then there's all the season ticket holders too.

It's one way to solve the Euston scrum, but there are other, better ways to do that as I mentioned.

Another way is to stop *marking* reservations (having instead one or two fully unreserved coaches in each class) and make them available at all TVMs and ticket offices plus online including for existing tickets (seasons included) right up to departure from each station. The more people choose to reserve, the less of a scrum there will be.

 

[Senex]

Another way is to stop *marking* reservations (having instead one or two fully unreserved coaches in each class) ... .

That was the way it used to be done on the old DR. A train might be unreservable, have some "Platzkartenwagen", or be only such coaches. The location of the Platzkartenwagen was of course shewn at station on the Wagenstandanzeiger. So if you had a reservation, you knew where to go, and if you didn't, you knew exactly where the unreserved coaches would be stopping (or standing if at the starting-point). If you wanted, you could of course go and sit in a reservations coach without a reservation, but that was entirely at your own risk and it was very well understood that you had to clear out at once and without question if someone with a reservation came along.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That was the way it used to be done on the old DR. A train might be unreservable, have some "Platzkartenwagen", or be only such coaches. The location of the Platzkartenwagen was of course shewn at station on the Wagenstandanzeiger. So if you had a reservation, you knew where to go, and if you didn't, you knew exactly where the unreserved coaches would be stopping (or standing if at the starting-point). If you wanted, you could of course go and sit in a reservations coach without a reservation, but that was entirely at your own risk and it was very well understood that you had to clear out at once and without question if someone with a reservation came along.

It's also how PKP IC do it (except the EIP Pendolino services where there is a stiff penalty for boarding without a reservation) and how DB have started doing it for reservations on regional services.

I think it should be trialled in the UK somewhere, the WCML might not be a bad place to start.

 

[pt_mad]

No they wouldn't be fine at all. Consider this. A Manchester train at xx00 catches the Crewe LNWR service up at Rugby assuming everything runs on time .What do you think it would do if a 110mph xx03 Birmingham ran in front of the xx07 Liverpool and the xx10 Chester as a consequence? And likewise with the xx30 off Birmingham which would hold up the Liverpool and a Manchester via Crewe that tail it?

It would balls the service up.

If it followed the Birmingham service all the way on the fast line then yes.
However, there are basically 3 Birmingham's in the hour. One extends to Scotland but doesn't have to as two separate services are fine if the TOC desires.
So there is a possibility one of the three could get to Rugby without being caught up.

Failing that, an overtaking move at either Watford Jct or Milton Keynes Central where one of the three Birmingham's is platformed onto the slow line to let the following fast service overtake may solve the problem easily enough.

The key thing is that 36 weekday services in each direction must be booked to do the journey in max 90 minutes. The rest would not be restricted so could be 110mph so this probably equates to one service in the hour could go at 110mph.

If the Euston - West Mids - Scotland through service continued per hour, and one other Euston - Birmingham in the hour ran 125mph, then there doesn't seem to be anything to stop the third running at 110mph.

 

[pt_mad]

As others have said, Pendolinos can't simply be chopped and changed. You can add additional carriages, but you can't remove carriages without making suitable modifications to these. It's probably quicker and easier to do another order for to make up the remaining 20-odd 9-coachers to full 11-coachers. Perhaps a few extra to replace the under-the-wires Voyager operations so that the only Voyager operations are for North Wales and Shrewsbury. Then the Voyagers freed up could go to CrossCountry, who are really desperate for more, longer trains.

I realise for Pendos to be re-jigged with existing carriages major mods would be needed at Alstom. But this still may make sense.

Don't forget that the class 390 is now outdated as regards building any new sets. It doesn't pass current regs for new build trains so new ones cannot be bashed out anymore.

Whether new build 390 coaches can be added to existing 9 car sets I'm not sure. May not pass the regs either. However I suspect that braking down some 9 car sets and (painstakingly?) updating systems and adding them into the remaining 9 car sets to make them 11 may well pass the safety regs as they are not new build coaches/cars.

For Alstom to produce any new Pendos would need a new design of train class based on the old and would need to be worth the trouble in terms of the number of sets ordered. Whereas taking the trouble to break down some 9 car sets and making up the other 9 car sets to 11, although would need probably weeks of work per 2 cars added, may be more economically viable.


If we are talking ordering new trains, it only make sense designing a new fleet if the order volume is large enough. So naturally we would talking about replacing the Voyagers. New diesel only tilting trains couldn't be justified environmentally so bi mode would be the only sensible option.

Hitachi seem to be the favoured bi mode suppliers at present and have facilities in the UK and abroad. If they were able to design a tilting version of their current hi speed bi mode type train it could be the sort of viable solution that is needed.
The whole West Coast Voyager fleet could be replaced with these Bi mode tilting trains + a few token extra sets to make up for the Pendo lost at Grayrigg and a few others for any new workings.

 

[Danfilm007]

Hitachi seem to be the favoured bi mode suppliers at present and have facilities in the UK and abroad. If they were able to design a tilting version of their current hi speed bi mode type train it could the sort of viable solution that is needed.

I wonder if it would take longer to procure these sets, as I believe (don't quote me on this!) that the current shells they use aren't certified for tilting (unlike say the MK4 body shells are)?

 

[pt_mad]

I wonder if it would take longer to procure these sets, as I believe (don't quote me on this!) that the current shells they use aren't certified for tilting (unlike say the MK4 body shells are)?

Correct. A new design would be needed. But at least they produce bi mode trains.

If Alstom were to build bi mode tilting trains, again a new design is required, and they have no experience in bi mode that I am aware of.

 

[Chester1]

New Intercity West Coast franchise stock is not going to happen. I don't see why that is so hard to accept. HS2 solves the long term capacity problems and the existing stock plus increasing alternative ToCs fleets will do until 2026. New tilting trains will be too expensive and non tilting trains will waste paths.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Failing that, an overtaking move at either Watford Jct or Milton Keynes Central where one of the three Birmingham's is platformed onto the slow line to let the following fast service overtake may solve the problem easily enough.

Platform 5 at MKC exists for precisely that purpose and is not heavily used.

 

[Domh245]

If Alstom were to build bi mode tilting trains, again a new design is required, and they have no experience in bi mode that I am aware of.

No UK experience, but they have been building some recently for SNCF

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The whole West Coast Voyager fleet could be replaced with these Bi mode tilting trains + a few token extra sets to make up for the Pendo lost at Grayrigg and a few others for any new workings.

The Grayrigg Pendo was already replaced in the 2012 order.

It's critically important to define the rolling stock profile for the northern WCML after HS2 opens, something the ITT makes no mention of.
We might be stuck with non-tilt HS2 stock at 110mph for most fast services in the longer term.

I don't believe anybody will go for reconfiguring the existing 390 fleet.
It's too risky in integration and reliability terms.

 

[driver_m]

If it followed the Birmingham service all the way on the fast line then yes.
However, there are basically 3 Birmingham's in the hour. One extends to Scotland but doesn't have to as two separate services are fine if the TOC desires.
So there is a possibility one of the three could get to Rugby without being caught up.

Failing that, an overtaking move at either Watford Jct or Milton Keynes Central where one of the three Birmingham's is platformed onto the slow line to let the following fast service overtake may solve the problem easily enough.

The key thing is that 36 weekday services in each direction must be booked to do the journey in max 90 minutes. The rest would not be restricted so could be 110mph so this probably equates to one service in the hour could go at 110mph.

If the Euston - West Mids - Scotland through service continued per hour, and one other Euston - Birmingham in the hour ran 125mph, then there doesn't seem to be anything to stop the third running at 110mph.

You do that and you can't run a clockface timetable. When we have just one pendo running at 110 because it doesn't tilt, it's noticeable as it slows as least one other train down. The southern end of the WCML is that precise that it's impossible not to delay something running at 110. If a southbound service is a few minutes late and prevents the northbound LNWR service crossing at Ledburn Jn from fast to slow, then the Manchester xx20 gets delayed, and so on. Late running LNWR Crewe heading northbound has to be just 2 late to then cause a whole series of knock on effects on trains in all directions. You can't do it. All the services need to be 125 that are currently 125. If they could run more services and have 110 timings then it would be happening already. Ask yourself why it isn't..

 

[pt_mad]

New Intercity West Coast franchise stock is not going to happen. I don't see why that is so hard to accept. HS2 solves the long term capacity problems and the existing stock plus increasing alternative ToCs fleets will do until 2026. New tilting trains will be too expensive and non tilting trains will waste paths.

Because old gas guzzler diesels running under the wires some times for 250 miles completely under the wires on one working is helping to kill our health, and is not suitable all the way until potentially 2031.

There are already stats to say 40,000 deaths a year are thought to have been caused by diesel fumes and this is enough of a reason for voyager replacement under the wires for us all.

Bi modes were a requirement for the East Coast franchise which was let in 2015, and GWR which has already been let.
This franchise is from 2019, until 2031. So bi modes are surely needed even if not a requirement of the bid. And running the current voyager fleet on a fully electrified route to scotland with provisions (and yes the provisions will exist until the first trains run on HS2) until potentially 2031 if needed would be scandalous imo.

If a bidder bids a new fleet of 25 bi modes Vs another bidder wanting to retain existing voyager fleet I know which i'd prefer for me and my kids.

 

[tomuk]

Because old gas guzzler diesels running under the wires some times for 250 miles comply under the wires on one working is helping to kill our health, and is not suitable all the way untill potentially 2031.

There are already stats to say 40,000 deaths are year are thought to have been caused by diesel fumes and this is enough of a reason for voyager replacement unser the wires for us all.

The 40,000 deaths a year figure is a tabloid headline badly interpreted from the scientific studies. The studies actually say how emissions contribute to early deaths ie. You die at 78 rather than 79 years old. Waiting for a train at New Street while a Voyager idles in the next platform isn't going to kill you or anyone else.

Having said that diesels are only needed for the Chester/North Wales services and the Shrewsbury services. I would suggest that at least dozen 125mph non-tilt 10-car EMUs, half a dozen 68s and a review/fettle of speed limits on the southern WMCL would be very useful to replace the Voygagers/supplement the Pendolinos.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If a bidder bids a new fleet of 25 bi modes Vs another bidder wanting to retain existing voyager fleet I know which i'd prefer for me and my kids.

I think there is a distinct possibility somebody might bid partial fleet replacement (Voyagers specifically) - it's not as if a full fleet replacement was a requirement for East Anglia, but it was bid and it won.

I'd similarly expect a full interior refurb of the Pendolino fleet, probably including new seats.

 

[mmh]

I don't understand why so many people seem think the new franchise's main goal should be to turn the WCML back to a 110mph and slower railway. The Voyagers are 16 years old and the Pendolinos between 6 and 16, so they're not going to be scrapped any time soon.

There's no point to 125mph non-tilt stock, other than to be able to cascade it to 125mph non-tilt lines later on. You may as well have a 110mph EMU, and then you probably end up with something more like a 350 with a better interior than a 390...

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't understand why so many people seem think the new franchise's main goal should be to turn the WCML back to a 110mph and slower railway.

Because once HS2 gets going, the WCML will be about semifast regional services, not about 125mph EMUs to Manchester three times an hour. It'll take on a character possibly somewhere between the present LNR service and Chiltern.

And the HS2 stock will be running at 110mph once off HS2 itself, so there will be a benefit in running everything at that speed.

 

[Chester1]

Diesels won't need to run on the WCML in large numbers past 2026. Once phase 1 opens they will only be likely to run on Chester/North Wales services. The other half will be redundant and cascaded elsewhere or scrapped. There will be more than enough Pendolinos to run the remaining non HS2 WCML express services. If there was sufficient demand then we could see Pendolinos being dragged by locos between Holyhead and Crewe from 2026 too. I agree that its good to try to phase out diesels in places like New Street but its not necessary to do it before 2026. The benefits of tilting and the costs of new tilt units put the economics firmly in favour of keeping the fleet the same until 2026. If there are spare non tilt paths then other opperators can use them but I doubt there are many south of Crewe.

 

[pt_mad]

The 40,000 deaths a year figure is a tabloid headline badly interpreted from the scientific studies. The studies actually say how emissions contribute to early deaths ie. You die at 78 rather than 79 years old. Waiting for a train at New Street while a Voyager idles in the next platform isn't going to kill you or anyone else.

Having said that diesels are only needed for the Chester/North Wales services and the Shrewsbury services. I would suggest that at least dozen 125mph non-tilt 10-car EMUs, half a dozen 68s and a review/fettle of speed limits on the southern WMCL would be very useful to replace the Voygagers/supplement the Pendolinos.

Tabloid headlines? You only need to smell diesel fumes to realise they're doing you no good. It could and probably is a lot worse than the first estimated figures.

The whole government agenda is for the winding down of diesel. Hence the agenda for GWR, East Coast, future EMT to have bi mode. If diesels were suitable under the wires for 100 plus miles, these routes would have continued with full diesel. I dont think even the governnent would say diesels wernt harming us.

Diesels for hundreds of miles under the wires needs to stop during this next franchise imo. And I hope that at least one bidder takes this view and bids a voyager replacement bi mode fleet.

 

[pt_mad]

Diesels won't need to run on the WCML in large numbers past 2026. Once phase 1 opens they will only be likely to run on Chester/North Wales services. The other half will be redundant and cascaded elsewhere or scrapped. There will be more than enough Pendolinos to run the remaining non HS2 WCML express services. If there was sufficient demand then we could see Pendolinos being dragged by locos between Holyhead and Crewe from 2026 too. I agree that its good to try to phase out diesels in places like New Street but its not necessary to do it before 2026. The benefits of tilting and the costs of new tilt units put the economics firmly in favour of keeping the fleet the same until 2026. If there are spare non tilt paths then other opperators can use them but I doubt there are many south of Crewe.

I'm not being funny and yes I am being sceptical here but do any of us truly really buy that HS2 phase 1 is going to be fully open in 2026? Yes I know that's the date they are currently giving .But it takes them 5 years to get around to constructing a new 2 platform station, and then they're 6 months late opening. And look how Great Western electrification is going. Chase line and Blackpool electrification has been on going for years.

I just cannot see this thing not being majorly late. I mean a 130 mile new railway levelled, tunnelled, built, electrified, open, tested, with passenger loaded trains going up and down it by December 2026?

They havnt even cordoned off the route with posts yet from what we can see. It's still open fields and we expect them to get in and have the thing graded, bridges in place, track and and wires in place and carrying passengers by 2026? It'll be the greatest achievement know to mankind if it is.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they can't manage to build a new railway in eight years they deserve the sack. Major road schemes don't take that long.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm not being funny and yes I am being sceptical here but do any of us truly really buy that HS2 phase 1 is going to be fully open in 2026? Yes I know that's the date they are currently giving .But it takes them 5 years to get around to constructing a new 2 platform station, and then they're 6 months late opening. And look how Great Western electrification is going. Chase line and Blackpool electrification has been on going for years.

I just cannot see this thing not being majorly late. I mean a 130 mile new railway levelled, tunnelled, built, electrified, open, tested, with passenger loaded trains going up and down it by December 2026?

They havnt even cordoned off the route with posts yet from what we can see. It's still open fields and we expect them to get in and have the thing graded and carrying passengers by 2026? It'll be the hreategr achievement know to mankind if it is.

2-3 years is a fairly typical contruction time for a major transport project on a relatively "greenfield" site, as most of HS2 is. You may argue that it is bigger than a "major transport project", then again it is being built in four separate sections under separate contracts, each of which is not that much bigger than something like a light rail project (Metrolink phase 3 has built or converted 60+km of mostly urban tramway).

Obviously some areas aren't "greenfield", Euston being the main example, but work has started there already on the complicated preliminaries like moving bits of Network Rail out of the way.

 

[tomuk]

I'm not being funny and yes I am being sceptical here but do any of us truly really buy that HS2 phase 1 is going to be fully open in 2026? Yes I know that's the date they are currently giving .But it takes then 5 years to get around to constructing a new 2 platform station, and then they're 6 months late opening. And look how Great Western electrification is going. Chase line and Blackpool electrification has been on going for years.

I just cannot see this thing not being majorly late. I mean a 130 mile new railway levelled, tunnelled, built, electrified, open, tested, with passenger loaded trains going up and down it by December 2026?

They havnt even cordoned off the route with posts yet from what we can see. It's still open fields and we expect them to get in and have the thing graded and carrying passengers by 2026? It'll be the hreategr achievement know to mankind if it is.

Seems like you are a bit of a glass half empty guy; were all being killed by diesel voyagers and HS2 will be hugely late.

Building HS2 will be a lot easier than the GWML electrification as most of it is greenfield there is no existing railway to work around. Its amazing what you can do when you access to a site all the time rather than a few hours overnight.

Regarding Bi-modes they are a waste of resources electrification is what is needed. Electric trains are more efficient and as it allows freedom to generate the power in the most efficient and clean ways possible. The government are only keen on them as it stops people asking embarrassing questions about the botched up electrification programs.

 

[The Planner]

Open in 26, infrastructure finished in 24/25.

 

[Chester1]

Open in 26, infrastructure finished in 24/25.

I agree, I fully expect it to open either in 2026 or maybe a bit late in 2027 at the same time as phase 2a. HS1 and Crossrail once they where actually given the greenlight demonstrate that the UK ability to build new railways is immeasurably better than our ability to upgrade existing lines. Its reasonable for WCP rolling stock plans to reflect most of the current fleet should be going off lease in 2026.

 

[mmh]

If they can't manage to build a new railway in eight years they deserve the sack. Major road schemes don't take that long.

There are many that have though. The M25 took 13 years, the A55 the best part of 20 and it feels like the new Forth road bridge has been a long time in the making.

How long did HS1 take to actually build? It seems remarkably difficult to find out from the internet as most articles about it focus on the delays on actually starting it, rather than when it was built.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There are many that have though. The M25 took 13 years, the A55 the best part of 20 and it feels like the new Forth road bridge has been a long time in the making.
How long did HS1 take to actually build? It seems remarkably difficult to find out from the internet as most articles about it focus on the delays on actually starting it, rather than when it was built.

I'd say 9 years 1998-2007, but built in two separate phases.
That's for 68 miles, much of it in tunnels/viaducts.
Phase 1 (46 miles, relatively easy) opened in 2003; Phase 2, with the biggest tunnels/bridges, was 22 miles.
Ownership and funding were a nightmare and delayed the start from approval in 1996.
St Pancras and Temple Mills depot were built to meet the Phase 2 opening date.

HS2 Phase 1 is twice the length at 140 miles, also with a significant length near London in tunnel.
So far it appears to be well funded and organised, and being built as one project.
However the diggers have yet to go in in earnest in the Chilterns backwoods.

In comparison Crossrail started major construction in 2011, opening fully in 2019.

 

[pt_mad]

Seems like you are a bit of a glass half empty guy; were all being killed by diesel voyagers and HS2 will be hugely late.

Building HS2 will be a lot easier than the GWML electrification as most of it is greenfield there is no existing railway to work around. Its amazing what you can do when you access to a site all the time rather than a few hours overnight.

Regarding Bi-modes they are a waste of resources electrification is what is needed. Electric trains are more efficient and as it allows freedom to generate the power in the most efficient and clean ways possible. The government are only keen on them as it stops people asking embarrassing questions about the botched up electrification programs.

You have decided to conclude I am a guy? Thanks. And you did yourself refer to bi mode as simply to stop questions to the government about botched up electrification. That seems equally glass half empty. But anyway we're not forum members to judge each other or to throw stones. But to debate the railway.

Bi mode are the thing at the moment whether we agree or not and it just makes sense to have them on north Wales with the current set up. And voyagers to Scotland for the foreesefore is just not logical.

And nobody can be certain HS2 won't over run. There's also the HS2 stations to construct. Many many rail infrastructure projects run late and it's not a case of glass half empty it's a case of the track record and the fact nothing on this scale has been done for yonks and we haven't seen a safety fence along the route yet. Someone said last week they havnt even opened the college to train the engineers.

I'm assuming the build would probably need to be complete during 2025 in order for testing and safety checks and the passing of stations etc.

As for diesel. Diesel emissions do kill people in the long run Fact. Sorry. London smog in the sunnsu doesn't exactly feel nice on the lungs. Diesel cars are going to be phased out of production by 2040. That's on all partys' agenda and it must be for good reason.

 

[The Planner]

Because once HS2 gets going, the WCML will be about semifast regional services, not about 125mph EMUs to Manchester three times an hour. It'll take on a character possibly somewhere between the present LNR service and Chiltern.

And the HS2 stock will be running at 110mph once off HS2 itself, so there will be a benefit in running everything at that speed.

Bear in mind that its only north of Crewe that the 110mph comes into play, south of there there is no reason to not run at 125mph even if you are stopping at Watford, MK and Rugby.