Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Bletchleyite]

However via Wrexham is for Shrewsbury and Telford to Chester. I still can't understand why people think there is the capacity and paths available for through trains from everywhere to the North Wales Coast. Back in the days of a handful of trains a day you could have multiple destinations but with modern high frequency expectations you have to pick your prime market.

The one big advantage of short gangwayed DMUs is that you can portion-work to achieve that - but on balance I do agree.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Looking at it from a Geographers point of view taking into account primary markets and destinations and population centres (City Regions, International Airports) a Birmingham International to Liverpool Lime St Regional Express services via New St, Wolverhampton, Telford, Shrewsbury, Wrexham, Chester, Liverpool South Parkway (Halton Curve) is a very good fit linking the centre of Liverpool and its airport to the two major populations centre south of it and the West Midlands and its airport to the two centres to the west of it and covers the "awkward bit" between Shrewsbury and Wrexham linking that to where folk want to go rather than Holyhead and Cardiff.

(NB: it spends only a short time in Wales)

 

[daikilo]

Looking at it from a Geographers point of view taking into account primary markets and destinations and population centres (City Regions, International Airports) a Birmingham International to Liverpool Lime St Regional Express services via New St, Wolverhampton, Telford, Shrewsbury, Wrexham, Chester, Liverpool South Parkway (Halton Curve) is a very good fit linking the centre of Liverpool and its airport to the two major populations centre south of it and the West Midlands and its airport to the two centres to the west of it and covers the "awkward bit" between Shrewsbury and Wrexham linking that to where folk want to go rather than Holyhead and Cardiff.

(NB: it spends only a short time in Wales)

I would describe it as linking a Birmingham International - Chester service/flow with a Wrexham - Liverpool. Not obvious to me that there are any other benefits like same frequency and capacity or even whether pathing possibilities exist.

 

[Rhydgaled]

However via Wrexham is for Shrewsbury and Telford to Chester.

Good point, terminating at Wrexham's not such a good idea. Birmingham to Chester via Wrexham every two hours as a portion off the Cambrian then unless WMR extend one of there Shrewsbury-Birmingham services to Chester.

I still can't understand why people think there is the capacity and paths available for through trains from everywhere to the North Wales Coast. Back in the days of a handful of trains a day you could have multiple destinations but with modern high frequency expectations you have to pick your prime market.

What would you suggest is a reasonable frequency on the north Wales coast? Personally, I think the baseline should be an hourly service from each of Holyhead (fast), Bangor (semi-fast, extended to Caernarfon if and when possible) and Llandudno (stopper), plus a Llandudno-Holyhead stopper every two hours. The Holyhead fast would go to/from Cardiff three times a day but otherwise assuming suitable stock is used/obtained would ideally run to/from Manchester (two intermediate stops only east of Chester please, make Northern's new suburban units do the other English stops). The Llandudno stopper would probably go to Liverpool (via the Halton Curve) and the Bangor/Caernarfon service to Birmingham (via Crewe and Stafford). If you can squeese in a London service or two on top of that as Holyhead boat trains then great, but I don't see a regular London service as being particularly sensible as it probably can only be at the expense of the Birmingham link. That's one of the reasons I wanted Curzon Street to be in a cutting as a through station, as then HS2 could provide a single train to Holyhead which provides for both the London and Birmingham markets. I suppose if HS2 makes it quicker to change at Crewe for London anyway then the classic WCML Euston-Holyhead trains could run via Birmingham New Street anyway.

If you think my suggestion for 3tph is a bit much then maybe you should look at this Bangor university consultation response fully supporting more Cardiff services and increased frequency of direct services to London, Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham. I make that 5tph! Even assuming that comes at the cost of the Llandudno branch being reduced to a shuttle to Llandudno Junction 5tph seems a bit excessive for Bangor.

The one big advantage of short gangwayed DMUs is that you can portion-work to achieve that

Acheive what exactly? I agree that portion working is a big advantage to using short gangwayed units, the Cambrian with its Pwllheli portions is a prime example of that, but doing it the other way around (eg. from Aberystwyth to both Birmingham and Manchester) doesn't work because the long train is then on the quiet bit. The same is true in north Wales; if you could wave a magic wand and create enough 158s you could have Manchester to Llandudno trains with Holyhead portions but not Holyhead trains with a portion for both Manchester and Birmingham (unless another portion from somewhere else joins them later so a long train goes into the big cities).

 

[Gareth Marston]

I would describe it as linking a Birmingham International - Chester service/flow with a Wrexham - Liverpool. Not obvious to me that there are any other benefits like same frequency and capacity or even whether pathing possibilities exist.

Of course pathing is the constraint but:

1. Shrewsbury is linked directly with Liverpool (its 3rd closet Metropolitan area) as is North West Shropshire Gobowen for Oswestry). The journey time via Chester & Halton curve is comparable with changing at Crewe from Shrewsbury.
2. It keeps Wrexham /Gobowen linked to the West Midlands.
3. You keep service flows from mingling Marches to Manchester, North Wales Coast to Manchester.
4. It gets around tight turnarounds at Chester (from Birmingham) or having to alter layout at Wrexham to allow terminating services on regular basis from Chester direction.
5. It probably saves a unit on having Liverpool to Wrexham and Birmingham to Chester as separate services.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Good point, terminating at Wrexham's not such a good idea. Birmingham to Chester via Wrexham every two hours as a portion off the Cambrian then unless WMR extend one of there Shrewsbury-Birmingham services to Chester.

What would you suggest is a reasonable frequency on the north Wales coast? Personally, I think the baseline should be an hourly service from each of Holyhead (fast), Bangor (semi-fast, extended to Caernarfon if and when possible) and Llandudno (stopper), plus a Llandudno-Holyhead stopper every two hours. The Holyhead fast would go to/from Cardiff three times a day but otherwise assuming suitable stock is used/obtained would ideally run to/from Manchester (two intermediate stops only east of Chester please, make Northern's new suburban units do the other English stops). The Llandudno stopper would probably go to Liverpool (via the Halton Curve) and the Bangor/Caernarfon service to Birmingham (via Crewe and Stafford). If you can squeese in a London service or two on top of that as Holyhead boat trains then great, but I don't see a regular London service as being particularly sensible as it probably can only be at the expense of the Birmingham link. That's one of the reasons I wanted Curzon Street to be in a cutting as a through station, as then HS2 could provide a single train to Holyhead which provides for both the London and Birmingham markets. I suppose if HS2 makes it quicker to change at Crewe for London anyway then the classic WCML Euston-Holyhead trains could run via Birmingham New Street anyway.

If you think my suggestion for 3tph is a bit much then maybe you should look at this Bangor university consultation response fully supporting more Cardiff services and increased frequency of direct services to London, Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham. I make that 5tph! Even assuming that comes at the cost of the Llandudno branch being reduced to a shuttle to Llandudno Junction 5tph seems a bit excessive for Bangor.

.

You cant have trains trying to fly everywhere beyond Chester tail chasing across the North Wales Coast totally crackers but that's Bangor University for you. You've got to bite the bullet and concentrate on where your primary market is.

Unless your reopening stations or Caerrnarfon in reality the following is enough.

1 every 2 hours Holyhead to Euston
1 every 2 hours Holyhead to Chester (conects with Euston trains)
1 every hour Llandudno to Manchester Airport.
3 trains a day Holyhead to Cardiff in conjunction with
the odd Peak Hour extra from Bangor to Chester.

That gives
1 tph west of Llanduno Jnc off peak
2 tph Chester to Llanduno Jnc off peak

2tph Bangor to Llanduno Jnc peak
3 tph Llanduno Jnc to Chester peak

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

What would you suggest is a reasonable frequency on the north Wales coast?
[snip]
If you think my suggestion for 3tph is a bit much then maybe you should look at this Bangor university consultation response fully supporting more Cardiff services and increased frequency of direct services to London, Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham. I make that 5tph! Even assuming that comes at the cost of the Llandudno branch being reduced to a shuttle to Llandudno Junction 5tph seems a bit excessive for Bangor.

The problem is more or less the same as it's always been. The North Wales Coast line, much like the Cornwall Main line, is rather seasonal in the demands on it and the franchising system doesn't deal very well with such situations. During the winter I would think that 2tph west of Chester as a base level of service is quite sufficient but in summer 3tph is easy to justify. Using Llandudno Junction as a hub for the connections that fill the gaps makes a lot of sense. Another issue is the stopping pattern: why the insistence on expresses? Trains heading west from Chester (apart from the Londons) should surely be stopping at all stations to Llandudno Junction especially when on a 2tph frequency.

As for that piece from Bangor University it is just dripping with political expedience in emphasising the need for north/south links to improve "engagement": I doubt that many outside the university's managers really care about it. That said the maintenance of say 3 daily north/south services over and above the base level service strikes a reasonable balance between political and actual need.

 

[6Gman]

However via Wrexham is for Shrewsbury and Telford to Chester. I still can't understand why people think there is the capacity and paths available for through trains from everywhere to the North Wales Coast. Back in the days of a handful of trains a day you could have multiple destinations but with modern high frequency expectations you have to pick your prime market.

What he said.

Some people seem to want 4tph Chester - Llandudno Junction.

Ain't going to happen. Nor should it.

 

[Eccles1983]

Has someone suggested cutting the chester to manchester to two stops?

So cutting one of the most used and profitable lines?

And the Northern is not an all stops train. It misses out runcorn/frodsham/helsby for the vast majority of the day.

If you really want to cut out busy english stops at the expense of lesser used stops in North Wales why not go the whole hog and terminate them at Chester and Northern take over the route completely.

You cant have it both ways. Especially when you take into account that the 3 stations mentioned are operated by arriva train wales.

 

[algytaylor]

1. It gets around tight turnarounds at Chester (from Birmingham) or having to alter layout at Wrexham to allow terminating services on regular basis from Chester direction.

Forgive my naivety, but couldn't you terminate trains at Wrexham Central? (Chester - Wrexham General - Wrexham Cental) its barely used as is, only the bidston train, so surely could handle the odd terminating service from Chester (or Liverpool/Manchester/Crewe)

 

[berneyarms]

You cant have trains trying to fly everywhere beyond Chester tail chasing across the North Wales Coast totally crackers but that's Bangor University for you. You've got to bite the bullet and concentrate on where your primary market is.

Unless your reopening stations or Caerrnarfon in reality the following is enough.

1 every 2 hours Holyhead to Euston
1 every 2 hours Holyhead to Chester (conects with Euston trains)
1 every hour Llandudno to Manchester Airport.
3 trains a day Holyhead to Cardiff in conjunction with
the odd Peak Hour extra from Bangor to Chester.

That gives
1 tph west of Llanduno Jnc off peak
2 tph Chester to Llanduno Jnc off peak

2tph Bangor to Llanduno Jnc peak
3 tph Llanduno Jnc to Chester peak

I think you'd need a stopper from Holyhead to Llandudno Junction or Llandudno too every 2-3 hours to serve the halts?

The bi-hourly Holyhead-Chester/Euston services should be semi-fasts.

 

[Polarbear]

Forgive my naivety, but couldn't you terminate trains at Wrexham Central? (Chester - Wrexham General - Wrexham Cental) its barely used as is, only the bidston train, so surely could handle the odd terminating service from Chester (or Liverpool/Manchester/Crewe)

If I remember, the track layout at Wrexham doesn't currently permit trains from Chester to cross directly over to the line heading to Central.

 

[craigybagel]

If I remember, the track layout at Wrexham doesn't currently permit trains from Chester to cross directly over to the line heading to Central.

Correct. For the Chester line you can only arrive on Platform 1 and depart from Platform 2 at General. Central can only be accessed from Platform 4. You'd need to reverse both in Cross Newydd loop and again at the junction between the Platform 3 and 4 tracks just north of General station on the Bidston line.

 

[daikilo]

Correct. For the Chester line you can only arrive on Platform 1 and depart from Platform 2 at General. Central can only be accessed from Platform 4. You'd need to reverse both in Cross Newydd loop and again at the junction between the Platform 3 and 4 tracks just north of General station on the Bidston line.

Good explanation. As the concept was to find a place to reverse trains from Chester off the main lines then Croes Newydd loop is in fact the "simple" answer, assuming it is not occupied already.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Has someone suggested cutting the chester to manchester to two stops?

Yes, I think the main W&B hourly service between Manchester and North Wales should call at Newton-Le-Willows, Warrington Bank Quay, Chester, Fflint, Rhyl, Llandudno Junction, Bangor and Holyhead only, with Northern's class 195 units taking up all the calls currently served by ATW between Chester and Manchester. In the peaks, when Northern will operate to Ellesmere Port instead of Chester and W&B will have 2tph the 'peak-extra' W&B service should make all the calls ATW currently do.

I believe at least one of the user-groups/lobby-groups/local-authorities who responded to one of the consultations also called for the W&B service to make fewer calls east of Chester.

So cutting one of the most used and profitable lines?

Unless by 'cutting' you mean introducing the need to change train for some journeys I am not suggesting a cut, since I am not suggesting a reduction in services. Basically what I am saying is that the introduction of a second train each hour between Manchester and Chester should be used as an oppertunity to introduce a faster service once an hour, rather than doubling the frequency at all stations. I'm also saying that the fast one should be the one that continues into North Wales using regional express stock rather than the one that terminates at Chester.

By speeding up the service the franchise would be making it more attractive to passengers making longer journeys, so it should be strengthing this profitable service not damaging it.

And the Northern is not an all stops train. It misses out runcorn/frodsham/helsby for the vast majority of the day.

That's what I'm afraid will happen and W&B will be left serving Runcorn Frodsham and Helsby, a barmy suituation where Northern's trains with doors at thirds (better able to deal with more stops) run fast and the W&B class 175s make the stops. That's a bit silly and if that's the plan I hope it gets changed (and not by downgrading the route to suburban trains on every service).

If you really want to cut out busy english stops at the expense of lesser used stops in North Wales why not go the whole hog and terminate them at Chester and Northern take over the route completely.

I don't see what you're getting at there; as you said above north Wales to Manchester is one of the most profitable services in the franchise, so why would you terminate them at Chester?

You cant have it both ways. Especially when you take into account that the 3 stations mentioned are operated by arriva train wales.

Right; I forgot to mention that I think the station management responsibilities for those stops should pass to Northern along with the requirement to call at them (although depending on where it goes after Chester the Halton Curve service could also call at Helsby and Frodsham).

Another issue is the stopping pattern: why the insistence on expresses? Trains heading west from Chester (apart from the Londons) should surely be stopping at all stations to Llandudno Junction especially when on a 2tph frequency.

The reason I think there should be fast trains is that I believe in trying to entice people away from driving private cars and given the advantages that mode has you need a seriously good rail offer. One area where rail can sometimes beat road is the journey time, but 55mins or more for a stopping train between Chester and Llandudno Junction doesn't cut it when the AA website tells me 52mins to drive between the two (it's 53 according to Google).

I would say however that my calling pattern above for the fast service is for my 3tph scenario; if I limited myself to 2tph then Prestatyn and Colwyn Bay would be listed too.

 

[Eccles1983]

Your plans involve a lot of fresh air being carted around the welsh coasts.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Has someone suggested cutting the chester to manchester to two stops?
So cutting one of the most used and profitable lines?
And the Northern is not an all stops train. It misses out runcorn/frodsham/helsby for the vast majority of the day.
If you really want to cut out busy english stops at the expense of lesser used stops in North Wales why not go the whole hog and terminate them at Chester and Northern take over the route completely.
You cant have it both ways. Especially when you take into account that the 3 stations mentioned are operated by arriva train wales.

I think you'll find that the intermediate English stations are no busier than the Welsh ones.
We have ended up with a tedious all-stops service when the vast majority of passengers are from the main stations on the route.
I don't think it matters who runs the stopper, but there needs to be some faster services to get people off the M56/A55.

I also doubt that Chester-Manchester is "profitable" - OK it might be less loss-making than the Welsh bit which can be very lightly loaded in the contra-peak direction.

People also don't get the seasonality of the North Wales services.
It's not just summer/winter, it's weekend/holidays as well.
There are times at Crewe/Chester when the North Wales traffic beats that to Liverpool/Manchester, but the railway just soldiers on with its short trains regardless.
The Chester-Shrewsbury trains are often bursting, but they are usually reduced to 2-cars over this stretch.
I'd like to know how many of these passengers could/should be travelling on through trains via Crewe, as used to be the case.

 

[northwichcat]

I also doubt that Chester-Manchester is "profitable" - OK it might be less loss-making than the Welsh bit which can be very lightly loaded in the contra-peak direction.

While they might be out-of-date now there were once figures produced which showed the English sections of the Wales & Borders franchise were returning a profit. I'm pretty sure they pre-dated the loco-hauled operations on Manchester to Chester which will have increased the operational costs, as will have extending the North Wales services to Manchester Airport. However, given the English sections were seen as profitable I would have thought Manchester to Chester and Manchester to Shrewsbury would definitely be profitable, considering Chester to Crewe and the Wirral section of Borderlands are likely to be loss making.

And of course the Welsh sections being loss making doesn't mean every section of every route within Wales is loss making.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

While they might be out-of-date now there were once figures produced which showed the English sections of the Wales & Borders franchise were returning a profit. I'm pretty sure they pre-dated the loco-hauled operations on Manchester to Chester which will have increased the operational costs, as will have extending the North Wales services to Manchester Airport. However, given the English sections were seen as profitable I would have thought Manchester to Chester and Manchester to Shrewsbury would definitely be profitable, considering Chester to Crewe and the Wirral section of Borderlands are likely to be loss making.

And of course the Welsh sections being loss making doesn't mean every section of every route within Wales is loss making.

I'd say ATW Chester-Crewe is towards the top end of financial performance.
It's full of people who connect long distance at Crewe on full fares, and is busy all day, despite the VT service in most hours.
VT will take half the revenue, of course (and a significant chunk onwards to Holyhead).
Curiously, on Sundays, it reverts to being the primary route to North Wales, as the ATW standard pattern timetable via Shrewsbury doesn't operate.

Very likely, the financial performance of all routes has improved over the last 15 years, but most of them were such basket cases at the start that I have my doubts about any of them making a "profit".
The ATW subsidy per passenger mile has to come from somewhere.

 

[northwichcat]

It's full of people who connect long distance at Crewe on full fares, and is busy all day, despite the VT service in most hours.

I'm not sure long distance fares make more for the operators providing a connecting service to the long distance service, given they are usually cheaper on a pence per mile basis.

Chester to Milton Keynes Off-Peak Return £67.50
Crewe to Milton Keynes Off-Peak Return £58.50
So only £9 extra to buy from Chester, rather than Crewe while:
Chester to Crewe Off-Peak Return £16.40
Chester to Crewe Day Return £12.30

I have my doubts about any of them making a "profit".

While I believe long distance services would get significantly fewer passengers if there weren't local connecting services, someone once did provide evidence on here that the Welsh sections were overall loss making and the English sections were overall profitable but like I said it was a while ago so the figures will likely have changed since.

I do hate it when people try and claim any route in a subsided franchise is automatically loss making or that any route in a premium paying franchise is automatically profitable. In a number of areas bus services are making an overall loss but there's still commercially operated profitable services operating in those areas. Yet for rail we get breakdowns by areas not by individual services, so we really have no idea.

 

[Greybeard33]

Very likely, the financial performance of all routes has improved over the last 15 years, but most of them were such basket cases at the start that I have my doubts about any of them making a "profit".
The ATW subsidy per passenger mile has to come from somewhere.

According to ORR data, in 2015-16 the ATW subsidy per passenger-km was 8.1p, down from 13.5p in 2013-14 and significantly less than Northern (10.7p), Merseyrail (10.4p) and Scotrail (10.2p). https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/displayreport/html/html/95218cca-408d-4047-83ce-a542c53b59e6

 

[Bletchleyite]

I suppose ATW only really have a couple of full-on basket case lines (the Conwy Valley, possibly the line out to Fishguard - I wouldn't count the Cambrian as it can load very well even round the Coast) while Northern have lots of them, and the lines that would be their "big ticket" ones like the North Wales Coast are mostly part of TPE instead.

 

[krus_aragon]

the Conwy Valley, possibly the line out to Fishguard

And the Heart of Wales line, too. Though for the Conwy Valley, I think it could do a lot better if it still had a summer timetable. (In the late 80s there'd be three extra return trips to Blaenau in the summer, making eight trains a day.) Sadly, upping the frequency would require either ditching the (3-hourly) standard pattern timetable or finding some speed improvements to get LLJ-BFF-LLJ to under two hours.

 

[Rhydgaled]

And the Heart of Wales line, too. Though for the Conwy Valley, I think it could do a lot better if it still had a summer timetable. (In the late 80s there'd be three extra return trips to Blaenau in the summer, making eight trains a day.) Sadly, upping the frequency would require either ditching the (3-hourly) standard pattern timetable or finding some speed improvements to get LLJ-BFF-LLJ to under two hours.

Or finding an extra unit, I think a train every two hours would be possible on the Conwy Valley Line with two units. I think the HOWL is probably the main 'basket case' on the franchise although with a decent frequency (every two hours or thereabouts in these cases) I think any line can attract enough pax to raise it above 'basket case' status although they would still need some subsidy and there will still be basket case stations on routes like the HOWL.

 

[Gareth Marston]

While they might be out-of-date now there were once figures produced which showed the English sections of the Wales & Borders franchise were returning a profit. I'm pretty sure they pre-dated the loco-hauled operations on Manchester to Chester which will have increased the operational costs, as will have extending the North Wales services to Manchester Airport. However, given the English sections were seen as profitable I would have thought Manchester to Chester and Manchester to Shrewsbury would definitely be profitable, considering Chester to Crewe and the Wirral section of Borderlands are likely to be loss making.

And of course the Welsh sections being loss making doesn't mean every section of every route within Wales is loss making.

TOC costs boil down to Staff, rolling stock leasing and tack access as the main categories. Simply look at ATW's Table 5 Valleys Line timetable. Add the miles run per day the qty of ATW's rolling stock allocated and traincrew and station staff needed to run it then its clear that the bulk of ATW's costs are in and around Cardiff Valleys. Then look at the fact that 95% of Valleys Lines journeys are internal and how low the fares are on them and its a no brainer that Valleys Lines are where the bulk of the subsidy goes.

However if it didn't exist the Coryton Interchange A470/M4 north of Cardiff would collapse under weight of traffic every day and the economy of Cardiff and South Wales would be screwed.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I suppose ATW only really have a couple of full-on basket case lines (the Conwy Valley, possibly the line out to Fishguard - I wouldn't count the Cambrian as it can load very well even round the Coast) while Northern have lots of them, and the lines that would be their "big ticket" ones like the North Wales Coast are mostly part of TPE instead.

Cambrian Main lines footfall is c One Million per annum (incl transfers to Cambrian Coast), the Coasts does go up and down depending on tourist numbers but has been around the 900K per annum mark in recent years. The yield on the cost is relatively low as its predominantly internal traffic whereas the mainline has a high percentage of long distance journeys.

 

[Parallel]

I used a Conwy Valley train between Llanrwst and Llandudno Junction last week and the 150 was very well loaded - we're talking about most seats being taken. The line is just problematic - flooding every year and battles a frequent and reliable bus service leaving most of those who use the trains either completing a longer journey by rail or are travelling for leisure. I'm not sure it will ever be profitable but if it was incorporated into a North Wales Metro scheme and treated a bit like the Barnstaple line (with more frequent services than now) then maybe it would be less loss making.

Cambrian Coast and Cambrian must be sound in Summer. I was on the coast portion this week and it was full and standing leaving Machynlleth and was rammed arriving at Barmouth. I'm not convinced it was all local traffic either with many already being on the train before I got on at Machynlleth - I suspect a fair few were from Shrewsbury, Wolverhampton and Birmingham. Things quieten down on the coast portion during winter but it is still used by locals and school children.

The Heart of Wales line is just a mess. Llandrindod - Shrewsbury and Llandovery - Swansea need to be two hourly at least. One train every four hours over these sections is almost as crazy as the line itself.

Fishguard to Carmarthen will probably never be profitable. Infrequent services and a small town at the end of a very isolated line that only really caters for those making long distance journeys (and/or those using the ferry).

I don't know much about the Pembroke or Milford Haven lines. I'd imagine the Pembroke line would be most deserving of improvements in Pembrokeshire for the seasonal traffic to Tenby, also towns at Pembroke and the Dock and many halts that will help to trickle extra passenger numbers onto these trains and provide some local journeys.

 

[krus_aragon]

Or finding an extra unit, I think a train every two hours would be possible on the Conwy Valley Line with two units. I think the HOWL is probably the main 'basket case' on the franchise although with a decent frequency (every two hours or thereabouts in these cases) I think any line can attract enough pax to raise it above 'basket case' status although they would still need some subsidy and there will still be basket case stations on routes like the HOWL.

I didn't mention rolling stock as one could cut the current Llandudno-Blaenau service to just Junction-Blaenau (for good or ill) to increase the frequency without extra units, or integrate it with some hypothetical Llandudno-Holyhead stopper in the new franchise. The issue is that units are typically timetabled 2hr5min for the round trip from Junction to Blaenau and back. That includes turn-around time at Blaenau, but not at the Junction. If you're going to cut that down to 2hrs, with allowance for request stops, you'll either need linespeed improvements or a better accelerating train.

(North Llanrwst and its passing loop is about one third of the way along the single track line, which doesn't help much with a standard pattern timetable. Betws y Coed's passing loop would have been better sited, but the trackbed there's now part of the railway museum.)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or finding an extra unit, I think a train every two hours would be possible on the Conwy Valley Line with two units.

It would to me be good if they could go back to having a 2-hourly Holyhead-Llandudno-Blaenau local services circuit and take the request stops out of the mainline services. That's what it used to be.

One of the things that really badly affects the Valley is that the trains are not timed for people to commute by rail to retail/daytime tourism jobs in Llandudno. To me that's throwing money away.

Not to mention the idiocy of the connections with the Ffestiniog timed just to miss rather than to connect like they did for years. Someone needs to bang ATW's and the FfR's heads together for that piece of idiocy.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I didn't mention rolling stock as one could cut the current Llandudno-Blaenau service to just Junction-Blaenau (for good or ill) to increase the frequency without extra units, or integrate it with some hypothetical Llandudno-Holyhead stopper in the new franchise. The issue is that units are typically timetabled 2hr5min for the round trip from Junction to Blaenau and back. That includes turn-around time at Blaenau, but not at the Junction. If you're going to cut that down to 2hrs, with allowance for request stops, you'll either need linespeed improvements or a better accelerating train.

Another more controversial option is to curtail most services to Betws-y-Coed, with two trains per day running through and a bus connection (maybe just via the X1). You could easily do two hourly clockface during the day with that, and it is the northern half of the line which is *much* busier.

Would be interesting to see what effect the breaking of the FfR connection has had on loadings past Betws. It certainly caused me not to bother with a possible scheme I had for Saturday.