Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Greybeard33]

Just to add to my previous post I can't find figure for ATW's Network Rail grant but using ORR figures for subsidy per passenger km paid directly from DfT to the franchise operator/concession:

Scotrail 17.47p
ATW 13.07p
Merseyrail 12.69p
Northern 7.79p
TPE 3.70p
London Overground 3.56p
London Midland 2.80p
Southeastern 2.30p

Other franchises are either less than 2p or non-subsided.

From the Annual Statistical Release for 2015-16 on the ORR website, the top 5 net subsidies (p/km) were:

Northern 10.7
Merseyrail 10.4
Scotrail 10.2
Caledonian Sleeper 9.1
ATW 8.1

These are stated to be net of revenue support/share and PTE grants.

Another WalesOnline story about the £67m dispute:
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/westminster-refuses-accept-welsh-government-13477094

As I understand it, even after devolution the subsidy will continue to come from UK taxpayers via the block grant. So the WG wants the UK to increase net subsidy payments by £67m (about 67%). It is difficult to see HM Treasury agreeing to this, when the policy in England is to shift the burden from the taxpayer to the farepayer.

 

[northwichcat]

But isn't the challenge that many people including politicians read TOC subsidies and payments as a way of measuring the regional performance of the rail network? Apologies for my naivety, the Wales and Border franchise is a good example where the strongest commuter flows in Wales are between Newport and Cardiff Central and yet the majority of services are not provided by ATW - but instead GWR and XC? (And this is not taking into consideration the accounting practices of distributing costs?)

The reality is subsidy levels can't be compared between franchises. I provided the figures because incorrect claims were made about the level of ATW's subsides not because I think it's a good way of comparing franchises.

If you look at Wilmslow to Manchester the choice of trains available are:
- Virgin: 9 carriage service originating from London
- ATW: 2/3 carriage service originating from South Wales
- Northern: 3 carriage local service

The ATW service is the one where you are least likely to get a seat, despite being most heavily subsided option. The Virgin one is the one where you are most likely to get an empty seat and they even offer Virgin only fares in an attempt to fill up their empty seats, yet they are the least heavily subsided option.

Unfortunately, it's very common for people to think because a franchise is loss making that means every service the franchise operates is loss making, or that if a franchise is profitable that every service the franchise operates is profitable. By that logic if a route transferred from one operator to another it would go from being loss making to being profitable just by changing the name of the operator on the train!

It's also worth remembering that local services provide important connections to Intercity services. I'm aware without local Northern services many passengers using Virgin services would have difficulty in getting to a station they serve, so I'm sure it's the same with ATW services providing connections to Virgin and GWR services.

 

[northwichcat]

From the Annual Statistical Release for 2015-16 on the ORR website, the top 5 net subsidies (p/km) were:

Northern 10.7
Merseyrail 10.4
Scotrail 10.2
Caledonian Sleeper 9.1
ATW 8.1

These are stated to be net of revenue support/share and PTE grants.

For some reason when I tried to find it I was directed to the 14/15 report. It makes sense that Scotrail's subsidy has decreased as a result of the new franchise awards and also makes sense that Northern's has increased given they had to take the loco-hauled sets to replace 156s on the Cumbrian coast, I also imagine TPE's would have reduced below 3.7p due to 156s being cheaper to operate than 170s.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If you look at Wilmslow to Manchester the choice of trains available are:
- Virgin: 9 carriage service originating from London
- ATW: 2/3 carriage service originating from South Wales
- Northern: 3 carriage local service

The ATW service is the one where you are least likely to get a seat, despite being most heavily subsided option. The Virgin one is the one where you are most likely to get an empty seat and they even offer Virgin only fares in an attempt to fill up their empty seats, yet they are the least heavily subsided option.

I don't think subsidies quite work like that.
The ATW service will be heavily subsidised on the Marches route, but much less in Cheshire.
The fares income is, I think, allocated according to seats available, so VT will dominate the route.
On costs, Wales generally has a low frequency and poor productivity (1-2tph or less), on old infrastructure, while (eg) Crewe-Manchester has a high frequency and centralised control.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I don't think subsidies quite work like that.
The ATW service will be heavily subsidised on the Marches route, but much less in Cheshire.
The fares income is, I think, allocated according to seats available, so VT will dominate the route.
On costs, Wales generally has a low frequency and poor productivity (1-2tph or less), on old infrastructure, while (eg) Crewe-Manchester has a high frequency and centralised control.

Headcount is no indicator of revenue or viability of a service the fare system is so screwed up people are on all different sorts of fares on the same train togethar. fares along the Marches are very expensive compared to the rest of the Wales and border areas especially south of Shrewsbury. The average yield per passenger is significantly higher than elsewhere.

 

[Envoy]

Surely, the fares on The Marches are expensive because of lack of rolling stock (seats) v the number of people who wish to travel. So, higher fares and overcrowding could well mean fewer passengers than might otherwise use this route?

Fares from Hereford to Cardiff (return) are £26.70 peak and £22.60 off peak for the 1 hour journey. Fares from Hereford to Birmingham return with London Midland are £18.50 peak & £16.40 off peak for the 1 hour 30 minute journey. Need I say more! The public are clearly being charged more due to a lack of rolling stock on The Marches. If you were a citizen of Hereford and you wanted to go shopping in one of the bigger cities, it is obvious that you would be inclined to choose Birmingham despite the longer journey. Therefore we can reckon that with higher fares and overcrowding on short trains, less people would be inclined to travel to Cardiff than would otherwise be the case.

The payload of a train v staffing costs must also be a factor that affects the profitability of a service. A 2 coach Sprinter in the valleys with a driver and conductor would have relatively few passengers (payload) compared to an Intercity service which also has a 2 person crew.

 

[northwichcat]

The fares income is, I think, allocated according to seats available, so VT will dominate the route.
On costs, Wales generally has a low frequency and poor productivity (1-2tph or less), on old infrastructure, while (eg) Crewe-Manchester has a high frequency and centralised control.

Northern should get the most revenue from unrestricted Wilmslow to Manchester tickets - around 840 standard class seats per hour between Wilmslow and Manchester (3 x 323s an hour) compared to Virgin's 370 (1 x 9 car Pendolino an hour.) That's unless the fact that ATW and Virgin provide faster services is taken in to consideration.

Of course it depends on how far the passengers are going as well. Shorter journeys tend to be proportionally more expensive, so one passenger occupying the same seat from origin to destination might make the TOC considerably less than another seat where 5 different short journey passengers occupy it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Northern should get the most revenue from unrestricted Wilmslow to Manchester tickets - around 840 standard class seats per hour between Wilmslow and Manchester (3 x 323s an hour) compared to Virgin's 370 (1 x 9 car Pendolino an hour.) That's unless the fact that ATW and Virgin provide faster services is taken in to consideration.

It indeed is.

 

[northwichcat]

A 2 coach Sprinter in the valleys with a driver and conductor would have relatively few passengers (payload) compared to an Intercity service which also has a 2 person crew.

And a 1 car train with a guard working the Heart of Wales line even less.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Surely, the fares on The Marches are expensive because of lack of rolling stock (seats) v the number of people who wish to travel. So, higher fares and overcrowding could well mean fewer passengers than might otherwise use this route?

Fares from Hereford to Cardiff (return) are £26.70 peak and £22.60 off peak for the 1 hour journey. Fares from Hereford to Birmingham return with London Midland are £18.50 peak & £16.40 off peak for the 1 hour 30 minute journey. Need I say more! The public are clearly being charged more due to a lack of rolling stock on The Marches. If you were a citizen of Hereford and you wanted to go shopping in one of the bigger cities, it is obvious that you would be inclined to choose Birmingham despite the longer journey. Therefore we can reckon that with higher fares and overcrowding on short trains, less people would be inclined to travel to Cardiff than would otherwise be the case.

The payload of a train v staffing costs must also be a factor that affects the profitability of a service. A 2 coach Sprinter in the valleys with a driver and conductor would have relatively few passengers (payload) compared to an Intercity service which also has a 2 person crew.

Chris Gibb explained to me that BR had pushed the fares up on the Marshes for two reasons firstly to pay for the 158's that were introduced on the route and secondly because the A49 was not a quick road and there was no bypass around Hereford. Them we've had 20 years of fare regulation and % increases which had widened the gap.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

And a 1 car train with a guard working the Heart of Wales line even less.

With a cost / revenue ratio of something like 5/1 .....the nature of the line , population and service levels.l

 

[gareth950]

http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...s-wales-boss-named-ahead-of-franchise-refresh

He might have a very short tenure.............

25.08.17

New Arriva Trains Wales boss named ahead of franchise refresh

The current passenger services director for London Midland has been selected to head up Arriva Trains Wales (ATW) as its managing director from 2 October, taking over from Ian Bullock.

Tom Joyner is leaving his former organisation just a few days after the operator lost its control of the West Midlands franchise, which was handed over to a joint venture between Abellio, East Japan Railway Company and Mitsui & Co Ltd instead.

He will also be joining ATW as the operator fights to maintain control of its current franchise, Wales and Borders, after the current contract expires in 2018. The TOC is currently competing against a shortlist of three foreign-owned companies, including Abellio Rail Cymru, KeolisAmey and MTR Corporation.

“I am excited to be joining one of the largest businesses in Wales and to use my passenger services background to build on ATW’s partnership approach with the Welsh government and Network Rail to drive continuous rail service improvements for passengers,” said Joyner.

The new ATW boss has over 20 years’ experience in the rail industry. Since joining London Midland in 2013, he has been responsible for captaining a team of 2,000 people focused on transforming travel for 60 million passenger journeys each year.

Before that, Joyner had leadership stints in Network Rail, FirstGroup and National Express.
Welcoming the new managing director, Chris Burchell, Arriva’s MD for UK Trains, said: “We are really pleased that Tom has decided to join the Arriva team and continue our investment plan for passengers through the Wales and Borders franchise.

“I would also like to thank Ian for his enormous contribution to ATW, and the role he has played in driving improvements in services for passengers.”
As well as running the Wales and Borders franchise, Arriva maintains its strong grip on the UK rail market by operating CrossCountry, Chiltern Railways, Arriva Rail North, London Overground and Grand Central.

 

[Gareth Marston]

http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...s-wales-boss-named-ahead-of-franchise-refresh

He might have a very short tenure.............

Given that Welsh Government Civil Servants have been planning for a franchise extension for years maybe not.

 

[gareth950]

The Welsh Govt - DfT funding row is the cover story on today's new issue of RAIL magazine.

The main article doesn't really tell us more than we already know, but it is mentioned that when the new operator takes over, all trains in Wales will be branded as 'Transport for Wales', and not using the identity of the individual operator.

 

[PHILIPE]

The Welsh Govt - DfT funding row is the cover story on today's new issue of RAIL magazine.

The main article doesn't really tell us more than we already know, but it is mentioned that when the new operator takes over, all trains in Wales will be branded as 'Transport for Wales', and not using the identity of the individual operator.

We don't know much anyway.

 

[CapitalStar378]

The Welsh Govt - DfT funding row is the cover story on today's new issue of RAIL magazine.

The main article doesn't really tell us more than we already know, but it is mentioned that when the new operator takes over, all trains in Wales will be branded as 'Transport for Wales', and not using the identity of the individual operator.

I hope Transport for Wales won't be on the trains, sounds ****.

WalesRail, RailCymru, TrenCymru or something along those lines would be better :roll:

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I hope Transport for Wales won't be on the trains, sounds ****.
WalesRail, RailCymru, TrenCymru or something along those lines would be better :roll:

The many services provided outside Wales should be reflected in the name.
The Borders/Marches is a real place (4+ English counties), and is not in hock to Cardiff Bay or Transport for Wales.
The Welsh term for them is Y Mers (same origin as Mersey and Mercia).
Valley lines apart, W&B runs very few wholly domestic Welsh services.

 

[gareth950]

I hope Transport for Wales won't be on the trains, sounds ****.

WalesRail, RailCymru, TrenCymru or something along those lines would be better :roll:

Well trains running in the Metro area will be branded with a hare, so it can't get much worse than that. Maybe 'TfW' will appear on trains in the same vain as 'TfL'.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Welsh Govt - DfT funding row is the cover story on today's new issue of RAIL magazine.

The main article doesn't really tell us more than we already know, but it is mentioned that when the new operator takes over, all trains in Wales will be branded as 'Transport for Wales', and not using the identity of the individual operator.

Id dint know the hacks @ RAIL could find the time to cover some news rather than launching made to order diatribes about nationalisation

 

[CapitalStar378]

Well trains running in the Metro area will be branded with a hare, so it can't get much worse than that. Maybe 'TfW' will appear on trains in the same vain as 'TfL'.

Yes but TfL have brands, Underground, Overground & DLR etc. TfL Rail is only an interim name before the Elizabeth line launches.

 

[eisenach]

The many services provided outside Wales should be reflected in the name.
The Borders/Marches is a real place (4+ English counties), and is not in hock to Cardiff Bay or Transport for Wales.
The Welsh term for them is Y Mers (same origin as Mersey and Mercia).
Valley lines apart, W&B runs very few wholly domestic Welsh services.

True, but I'm not sure that many people, apart from the politicians, would mind. They often feel more affinity with Wales than England. As I've said before, I taught for years at a small school in North West Herefordshire, and the kids overwhelmingly supported the Welsh Rugby team over England.
We see a lot of bilingual utility companies' road works signs in Herefordshire (and not just Welsh Water). If the rail service improved, especially in terms of getting a seat and the cost of tickets was kept reasonable, I'm sure we'd rejoice, irrespective of what it says on the outside of the train. If we can have Welsh Water, I'm sure we can have welsh trains !

 

[northwichcat]

Any house in North Wales which has never switched electricity companies will get their electricity from Scottish Power as they took over MANWeb (Merseyside and North Wales electricity board.)

My Gran lived in Hereford and she felt a close connection to Monmouth (where her mother was born) but specifically Monmouth, not Wales in general.

 

[gareth950]

The many services provided outside Wales should be reflected in the name.
The Borders/Marches is a real place (4+ English counties), and is not in hock to Cardiff Bay or Transport for Wales.
The Welsh term for them is Y Mers (same origin as Mersey and Mercia).
Valley lines apart, W&B runs very few wholly domestic Welsh services.

Is it really any different to what happens now? Arriva Trains Wales running services from Chester - Crewe or Birmingham - Shrewsbury? Do passengers really care what the name/branding is on the side of the train? They just want a frequent, reliable service with plenty of seats.

Here's a thought, maybe the new brand name for the franchise should be generic; just 'Wales and Borders' with no operator branding. Sounds good, that should please everyone, politicians included. :roll:

 

[Gareth Marston]

True, but I'm not sure that many people, apart from the politicians, would mind. They often feel more affinity with Wales than England. As I've said before, I taught for years at a small school in North West Herefordshire, and the kids overwhelmingly supported the Welsh Rugby team over England.
We see a lot of bilingual utility companies' road works signs in Herefordshire (and not just Welsh Water). If the rail service improved, especially in terms of getting a seat and the cost of tickets was kept reasonable, I'm sure we'd rejoice, irrespective of what it says on the outside of the train. If we can have Welsh Water, I'm sure we can have welsh trains !

The same in reverse applies here in Mid Wales the vast majority would prefer services improved as a priority rather than see being "controlled from Cardiff" as a priority.

 

[northwichcat]

Here's a thought, maybe the new brand name for the franchise should be generic; just 'Wales and Borders' with no operator branding. Sounds good, that should please everyone, politicians included. :roll:

I think Wales & West is just as good. OK while West referred to South West the last time that name was used, West could just as easily mean West Midlands and North West.

Alternatively, they have a brand name for regional services which refers to the services crossing the border in to England.

 

[PR1Berske]

In the spirit of "HTV Wales" and "HTV West", "TfW" and "TfW West" perhaps?

 

[Dai Corner]

HTV had their General Service in the Bristol Channel area in the early days before Wales and West had their own transmitters.

So how about TfW Cymru, TfW England and TfW General for cross-border services?

 

[Gareth Marston]

HTV had their General Service in the Bristol Channel area in the early days before Wales and West had their own transmitters.

So how about TfW Cymru, TfW England and TfW General for cross-border services?

I can almost guarantee whatever it is it will not go down well in the Marches.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The same in reverse applies here in Mid Wales the vast majority would prefer services improved as a priority rather than see being "controlled from Cardiff" as a priority.

I'm not sure the old setup, which would be Northern in North Wales, LM in mid Wales and GWR in South Wales, wouldn't actually be better overall.

That said, there is a golden opportunity here, which will probably be missed, to fully integrate Wales's public transport.

 

[gareth950]

That said, there is a golden opportunity here, which will probably be missed, to fully integrate Wales's public transport.

That's the primary reason for 'Transport for Wales' being set up. However, whether Westminster will devolve the necessary powers and funding needed for TfW to be able to do this across buses as well as railways in Wales, is another matter entirely.

With Grayling in charge, signs so far have not been encouraging.