Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[greyman42]

What a weirdly unpleasant reply. I'm just pointing out that the headline stats from that paper are largely meaningless. I thought we were discussing side effects, which absolutely are occurring, and would certainly worry me if they were using AZ for younger patients.

I don't think using AZ on younger patients should be anything to worry about.

 

[35B]

But not now we have a vaccination, I'm talking about now not 12 months ago.

When - and thankfully, it is when - the population is vaccinated fully, I will agree with you. Until then, it is less clear cut.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jun 2021 ==

What a weirdly unpleasant reply. I'm just pointing out that the headline stats from that paper are largely meaningless. I thought we were discussing side effects, which absolutely are occurring, and would certainly worry me if they were using AZ for younger patients.

And which should not worry you - these are risks that are near the limit of what can be measured, and are most meaningfully expressed as being vanishingly unlikely to happen.

 

[Richard Scott]

When - and thankfully, it is when - the population is vaccinated fully, I will agree with you. Until then, it is less clear cut.

No it's clearcut now, those who are unvaccinated are either by choice or in an age group where risks are so low that they're almost insignificant. The trade off of sitting around waiting against people's jobs, cancer treatments etc. isn't worth it and we need to just get on with everyday life.

 

[35B]

No it's clearcut now, those who are unvaccinated are either by choice or in an age group where risks are so low that they're almost insignificant. The trade off of sitting around waiting against people's jobs, cancer treatments etc. isn't worth it and we need to just get on with everyday life.

I must have been imagining Bolton hospital calling out severe pressure due to Covid last week. I want this to be so too - but it doesn't mean that it yet is.

 

[Richard Scott]

I must have been imagining Bolton hospital calling out severe pressure due to Covid last week. I want this to be so too - but it doesn't mean that it yet is.

Where those in hospital have chosen not to have the vaccine, their choice and I respect that choice but I don't see why rest of us have to wait because of this choice.

 

[The Ham]

Where those in hospital have chosen not to have the vaccine, their choice and I respect that choice but I don't see why rest of us have to wait because of this choice.

It depends on why they haven't had the vaccine, if it's due to miss information (like it contains meat/pork products, which would put off those from certain backgrounds and religions) then that's different to someone deciding that they don't want it having a good level of accurate information to hand.

 

[Pete_uk]

Despite the new version of the virus, there was zero deaths the other day.

 

[Crossover]

I had my Pfizer vaccine 2 days ago (I'm in my 30s) and bar a sore arm and maybe feeling a little tired (hard to tell as a shift worker!) I've had no real issues.

Same here, other than a sore arm I was fine.

And same here. Just a sore arm after getting it last Friday when I had it and nothing else.

Likewise here, too. It felt like I had been punched/had strained the muscles in my arm for a day mainly, easing to a lesser ache for another day or two and now nothing that I'm aware of

 

[35B]

Where those in hospital have chosen not to have the vaccine, their choice and I respect that choice but I don't see why rest of us have to wait because of this choice.

Because, aside from whether those who've declined have done so based on misinformation, there are real questions about how accessible vaccination has been in some places. There is then also the issue that gaps in vaccination programmes for whatever reason do leave significant holes for diseases to gather in, which can lead to significant outbreaks - which is why achieving herd immunity relies on mass compliance.

 

[LancasterRed]

Despite the new version of the virus, there was zero deaths the other day.

Very encouraging.

Hopefully this continues to be the case as more people receive the vaccine, and is not only the case due to bank holiday lag.

Queues for COVID vaccines at centres I've passed are longer than ever, so uptake is increasing.

 

[Richard Scott]

Because, aside from whether those who've declined have done so based on misinformation, there are real questions about how accessible vaccination has been in some places. There is then also the issue that gaps in vaccination programmes for whatever reason do leave significant holes for diseases to gather in, which can lead to significant outbreaks - which is why achieving herd immunity relies on mass compliance.

Whatever straws you're clutching at here to make a point does not make it a reason to carry on with restrictions.

 

[kristiang85]

I must have been imagining Bolton hospital calling out severe pressure due to Covid last week. I want this to be so too - but it doesn't mean that it yet is.

Yet that "severe pressure" last week was 8 times less than they had from the winter wave (if I recall correctly the BBC article I read). Hospitals are always facing pressure points; I've got a friend who works in one in Nottingham who said she wondered why it was headline news they were on red alert when half the previous year they were also in a similar state of busy-ness.

The problems caused by continued restrictions will nationally far outweigh the problems from these small pockets.

 

[35B]

Whatever straws you're clutching at here to make a point does not make it a reason to carry on with restrictions.

To those for whom no restrictions are ever acceptable, anything that looks at why they may be will appear like a straw.

Yet that "severe pressure" last week was 8 times less than they had from the winter wave (if I recall correctly the BBC article I read). Hospitals are always facing pressure points; I've got a friend who works in one in Nottingham who said she wondered why it was headline news they were on red alert when half the previous year they were also in a similar state of busy-ness.

The problems caused by continued restrictions will nationally far outweigh the problems from these small pockets.

I wouldn't use the winter wave as my baseline - that was hospitals going over capacity at great cost in other ways to deal with the wave of Covid patients. On the other hand, your point about how near the red hospitals operate is entirely valid, and restrictions to protect the health service can't just be about preventing them being as stretched as they have been in previous years.

 

[Richard Scott]

To those for whom no restrictions are ever acceptable, anything that looks at why they may be will appear like a straw.

That's because they are. Why do we need restrictions when all vulnerable have been offered a vaccination (whether they've taken it or not) as has anyone aged 40 (probably much lower than that now) and over? We can't keep waiting just in case. If someone is vulnerable it's up to them to take precautions not the majority to allow for that. Why are we in this reverse democracy situation (where majority have to allow for minority)?
If we carry on like this why aren't we banning cars as some people due in crashes through no fault of their own, let's all live in bungalows as people fall down stairs and, whilst we're at it, let's only have liquid food as some people choke? Where does the stupidity end?

 

[Bald Rick]

That's because they are. Why do we need restrictions when all vulnerable have been offered a vaccination (whether they've taken it or not) as has anyone aged 40 (probably much lower than that now) and over? We can't keep waiting just in case. If someone is vulnerable it's up to them to take precautions not the majority to allow for that. Why are we in this reverse democracy situation (where majority have to allow for minority)?
If we carry on like this why aren't we banning cars as some people due in crashes through no fault of their own, let's all live in bungalows as people fall down stairs and, whilst we're at it, let's only have liquid food as some people choke? Where does the stupidity end?

Because many of those who are vulnerable don’t know they are. Including many who have been vaccinated once.

I know someone in hospital now - fit, healthy, well under 40. He’s had a very difficult few weeks. He also, unwittingly, passed it on to his immediate family; thankfully none of them needed hospital treatment. He has no idea how he caught it - early May, working at home, keeping to the restrictions.

Whilst one example doesn’t prove a trend (far from it) it is reasonable to assume that had all restrictions been removed he would have been back at work, on the train, in the pub, etc etc., and that he would have unwittingly passed it on to a great many more people. Some of whom would also have been vulnerable without realising it and ended up in hospital. And so on. Had he been fully vaccinated I doubt he would have caught it, and certainly not ended up in intensive care.

Until we get sufficient people vaccinated to tigger ‘herd immunity’, or something like it, there is the risk that sufficient numbers of them could get ill enough to be in hospital that causes a stretch in the health service. As it happens I think we are pretty close to getting herd immunity, but not just yet, as events in Bolton have shown. But I do think that by 21 June we will have enough to do what is indicate din the roadmap, subject to the work that has yet to be published on a few matters.

 

[Richard Scott]

Because many of those who are vulnerable don’t know they are. Including many who have been vaccinated once.

I know someone in hospital now - fit, healthy, well under 40. He’s had a very difficult few weeks. He also, unwittingly, passed it on to his immediate family; thankfully none of them needed hospital treatment. He has no idea how he caught it - early May, working at home, keeping to the restrictions.

Whilst one example doesn’t prove a trend (far from it) it is reasonable to assume that had all restrictions been removed he would have been back at work, on the train, in the pub, etc etc., and that he would have unwittingly passed it on to a great many more people. Some of whom would also have been vulnerable without realising it and ended up in hospital. And so on. Had he been fully vaccinated I doubt he would have caught it, and certainly not ended up in intensive care.

Until we get sufficient people vaccinated to tigger ‘herd immunity’, or something like it, there is the risk that sufficient numbers of them could get ill enough to be in hospital that causes a stretch in the health service. As it happens I think we are pretty close to getting herd immunity, but not just yet, as events in Bolton have shown. But I do think that by 21 June we will have enough to do what is indicate din the roadmap, subject to the work that has yet to be published on a few matters.

As you said one person doesn't prove a trend and this isn't a common occurrence but unfortunately we can't keep waiting just in case one person is vulnerable. I may be vulnerable to flu, I don't know as never had it, but I don't expect everybody else to give up 15 months of life just in case. We can't keep this up, it's now ridiculous. I'm afraid life is unfair and if it happened to me then so be it, that's just unfortunate.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm afraid life is unfair and if it happened to me then so be it, that's just unfortunate.

The point is it’s not about if it happens to you, or any one person. It’s if it happens to a lot of people, which then causes problems with others who need hospital treatment. That’s the issue the decision makers have to grapple with.

As it happens, aside from international travel and large events, life is more or less back to normal for most people since the last stage 2 weeks ago.

 

[Richard Scott]

The point is it’s not about if it happens to you, or any one person. It’s if it happens to a lot of people, which then causes problems with others who need hospital treatment. That’s the issue the decision makers have to grapple with.

As it happens, aside from international travel and large events, life is more or less back to normal for most people since the last stage 2 weeks ago.

But if people have chosen not to be vaccinated then not much we can do and, let's be honest, any that are at risk in the younger age groups who have yet to be vaccinated are going to be penny numbers. Some of us enjoy international travel and/or large events, which are an important part of life so, no, life isn't virtually back to normal for some of us and it's extremely frustrating.
I don't consider masks, track and trace in a cafe, pub etc. or social distancing still being required to be almost back to normal either. These are significant intrusions.

 

[Bald Rick]

and, let's be honest, any that are at risk in the younger age groups who have yet to be vaccinated are going to be penny numbers.

Small numbers, but not insignificant.

But if people have chosen not to be vaccinated then not much we can do

Agreed.

But what about those who have been vaccinated, but for whom the vaccine is ineffective? There’s a lot of those around at present, and will be for another few weeks.

I don't consider masks, track and trace in a cafe, pub etc. or social distancing still being required to be almost back to normal either. These are significant intrusions.

I’d say that’s a matter of opinion. Masks - an inconveninece certainly. Track and trace in the pub - negligible. It takes a second. Social distancing? Inconvenient for some, less so for others. But not a significant intrusion for most, I’d argue.

 

[takno]

As it happens, aside from international travel and large events, life is more or less back to normal for most people since the last stage 2 weeks ago.

Can't go to a club, and neither can my neighbours, so more parties. Still not back in the office full-time, so a significant portion of my waking life is different. Pubs are much more difficult to do on a whim, and not acceptable in the size of group I tend to go in. Instead of looking forward to a foreign break I'm just kind of sitting, glumly realising that I really am going to be largely stuck in this horrible little flat for god knows how much longer.

My parents age - still essentially no events of any size so all of their dance, choir sessions aren't happening, meaning they have no social life and are sitting miserable at home. I can't get down to see them because social-distancing and compulsory reservations on LNER means there are literally no available tickets tomorrow.

A lot of my friends in hospitality are currently in isolation (and their work closed) because of track and trace

I'm sure there are people who are now living a more or less normal life, but you're totally delusional if you think it's most people.

 

[Dent]

Track and trace in the pub - negligible. It takes a second. Social distancing?

If you think the only concern with track and trace is the time it takes to scan then you're rather missing the point. The intrusion into personal privacy and the risk of being arbitrarily imprisoned at a moment's notice are far more serious concerns.

 

[Philip]

I have seen and heard a few mentions that people 'need' both doses, but to what extent? Are there figures for the efficacy after having had one dose after the 2-3 week immunity building period? Is there a good argument for saving would-be second doses for non-vulnerable under 50s, and sending them to other countries which need them more?

 

[Richard Scott]

Small numbers, but not insignificant.



Agreed.

But what about those who have been vaccinated, but for whom the vaccine is ineffective? There’s a lot of those around at present, and will be for another few weeks.



I’d say that’s a matter of opinion. Masks - an inconveninece certainly. Track and trace in the pub - negligible. It takes a second. Social distancing? Inconvenient for some, less so for others. But not a significant intrusion for most, I’d argue.

Any number is not insignificant but doesn't mean we should carry on restrictions, afraid we can't keep pandering to this just because a few may be affected. You may consider masks, trace and trace etc a minor inconvenience, I don't. Supposed to wear a mask all day at work and it's far more than a minor inconvenience.

 

[The Ham]

Very encouraging.

Hopefully this continues to be the case as more people receive the vaccine, and is not only the case due to bank holiday lag.

Queues for COVID vaccines at centres I've passed are longer than ever, so uptake is increasing.

Whilst it's good, it doesn't mean that the current variation won't cause us an issue in the short term. As deaths are related to being infected from a bit over a month ago. (Of course it could also be the first of many such days, however we'd need to see more data to be sure).

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm sure there are people who are now living a more or less normal life, but you're totally delusional if you think it's most people.

There’s no doubt there are many people deeply affected. But looking around the places I go near home, work, for work and leisure, it is pretty close to normal. The kids are back at school (well, not this week). A lot of my friends are on holiday. I can play sport. I can do the exercise I want with the people I want. I can go to work. I can go to a pub or a restaurant or a cafe (and do, at a moment’s notice). I can visit friends and family, by whatever mode of transport I want and stay overnight for as long as I want. Yes there are some inconveniences to do some of this. But, effectively, life is more or less back to normal. Not fully, but close to. And as far as I can tell, it is so for most people I see. I’m sorry if it isn’t for you. That’s not to say I don’t want it to go fully back to normal - I do. But the next step is rather smaller than the steps we have taken.

If you think the only concern with track and trace is the time it takes to scan then you're rather missing the point. The intrusion into personal privacy and the risk of being arbitrarily imprisoned at a moment's notice are far more serious concerns.

Doesn’t bother me, nor anyone else I know. Why would it? Of course I’d prefer not to, but only because it delays me getting a drink by a few seconds and I get thirsty...

I have seen and heard a few mentions that people 'need' both doses, but to what extent? Are there figures for the efficacy after having had one dose after the 2-3 week immunity building period? Is there a good argument for saving would-be second doses for non-vulnerable under 50s, and sending them to other countries which need them more?

Yes, plenty of research out there, too much to quote. And efficacy varies by what it is preventing - infection, symptomatic disease, hospitalisation, death. And it varies by age group. And vaccine type. But very very broadly, one dose gives something between 60-80% efficacy, 2 doses 80-99%.

 

[The Ham]

That's because they are. Why do we need restrictions when all vulnerable have been offered a vaccination (whether they've taken it or not) as has anyone aged 40 (probably much lower than that now) and over? We can't keep waiting just in case. If someone is vulnerable it's up to them to take precautions not the majority to allow for that. Why are we in this reverse democracy situation (where majority have to allow for minority)?
If we carry on like this why aren't we banning cars as some people due in crashes through no fault of their own, let's all live in bungalows as people fall down stairs and, whilst we're at it, let's only have liquid food as some people choke? Where does the stupidity end?

Whilst people under 40 are getting their vaccine (as over 30's can book), it still will take them 3 weeks from when they receive it before they get a reasonable amount of protection.

It will also take them until 3 weeks after their second dose to get a higher level of protection (change from circa 2/3rds protection of death to circa 6/7ths protection of death, obviously this is compared to their previous risk of death and so the actual risk would be much lower than this).

 

[Dent]

Doesn’t bother me, nor anyone else I know. Why would it?

Can you really not see why being arbitrarily imprisoned at a moments notice would bother anyone?

 

[Richard Scott]

Whilst people under 40 are getting their vaccine (as over 30's can book), it still will take them 3 weeks from when they receive it before they get a reasonable amount of protection.

It will also take them until 3 weeks after their second dose to get a higher level of protection (change from circa 2/3rds protection of death to circa 6/7ths protection of death, obviously this is compared to their previous risk of death and so the actual risk would be much lower than this).

I'm perfectly aware of this. Under 50s were considered at minimal risk and this age group was started around 2 months ago so well within time now. One dose will certainly be adequate to stop hospitalisation for almost everyone in this group.

 

[The Ham]

I'm perfectly aware of this. Under 50s were considered at minimal risk and this age group was started around 2 months ago so well within time now. One dose will certainly be adequate to stop hospitalisation for almost everyone in this group.

Whilst the risk of death for the majority of the under 50 cohort is typically low there's always going to be some who are at much higher risk.

However that's assuming that they've opted for the vaccine, the MMR "issues" impacted on children born in the mid 1990's, who will be in their mid 20's now and their their parents who are likely to be mid 40's. As such there's a risk that if they've been put off vaccines we could see some lower uptake rates from those who've been able to have them for a few weeks and who are likely to be able to book them in the next few weeks.

 

[P Binnersley]

The leaflet I was given Sunday with my vaccine (AZ) gives the benefit of vaccination as
Over 50's & underlying medical conditions.
- One Dose >80% reduction in deaths/hospitalisation/intensive care.
- Two Doses >95% reduction in deaths.
Under 50's
- One Dose 60-70% reduction in catching and passing on infection
- Two Doses >85% reduction in catching & passing on infection.