Released this morning:
www.imperial.ac.uk
It’s an old problem with expressing changes. A rise from 1 to 1.7 is both a 0.7 increase in R and a 70% increase. Which is more concerning will depend on whether absolute or relative change is more important.
Living in Maidstone according to the ZOE app which I input into, Maidstone has been bouncing up and down recently, but not increasing overall. Other parts of Kent though do seem to be improving, including the hard-hit Medway and Swale areas, but NW Kent is more of a concern.
Yes when you have a respiratory virus that will be transmitted in every environment we visit, it's wrong to put it down to one cause. Besides, with the vaccine rollout underway and a high number of infections currently active, there's only so long R can remain where it is before improving weather and immunity build-up from the combined immunity sources brings the value down (even if "herd immunity" hasn't yet been reached if that's ever possible).
Agree im in E.Surrey and our cases were very low until early December and have tripled by today although its important to pay attention to the day the test was taken especially over last 7 days when the higher numbers are actually some catching up presumably with tests not processed for a couple of days. Whats also happened over the last few days is hospital admission to local NHS trust have increased considerably in response to the case pick up from a few weeks ago although we were already assisting Kent trusts so some of capacity had already been gone. Certainly in many Kent areas there has been a levelling off which means the R rate is heading back to 1 albeit it needs to drop below 1 for cases to be falling.
India has manufactured 50m doses of the Oxford vaccine on spec we don't appear to have anything like that number currently despite all the bravado and accolades heaped on Kate Bingham by Johnson and Hancock. Vaccination has always been the only way out for this govt and we aren't in pole position despite what they've been saying hence the more aggressive restrictions and the disregarding of applying the rules over the tiers. The fact Furlough was extended without pressure from the opposition and new regulations allow for voting to take place tells you they are in for the long haul.
Aside from the extreme logistical challenges of vaccination 90% of the population so fast, I can't see how that proportion will be necessary if increasing immunity from previous infection and eventually improving weather will also help reduce the infection rate.
The R would need to be around 10 to require a 90% vaccination rate. If that were the case, then we don't really have any realistic chance of containment.
No idea, unless something has carried forward from my youth?
Unless you are in one of the top priority groups you will almost certainly be contacted by post. It is probably a good idea to ensure the NHS has your correct address. In 2015 I had to use the NHS for the first time in years and they still had me living at the address I left 13 years earlier.
According to the NHS website you fill in form GMS-1 and take it to your local surgery - it's available here:
If you attended University you may have registered at the practice there, in which case they will have your student address (I'm at Uni now and we are still getting mail from old residents of the house we're in).
Why does the NHS love to make things as difficult as they can? I'm not 100% sure they really need this information to register you.
For sure.
Kate Bingham said we would have 4m doses available by end of 2020 back in November off the back of saying we would have 30m in September. Anyhow over optimism is a trademark of this govt but perhaps thats way it keeps people going in the face of adversity. What I do find frustrating though is that the vaccination minister Nadhim Zahawi isn't out there setting out what the plan is. OK i know the press pounce on everything that is said but better to put out a plan to show people how we are going to get through the next few weeks even if its a bit uncertain than just saying it will come good. If people can see the way forward and that week by week we are making progress they might feel incentivised to just hunker down for a few more weeks and keep transmission rates down.
