Just over a year ago when
Rail Business UK surveyed the UK rail sector’s senior management about the post-Covid outlook, there was a consensus that without action to drive forward reform, two decades of growing rail use could come to a jarring halt.
Today, 13 months on, the situation is much bleaker: industrial relations strife is paralysing much of the network, long-awaited plans to create a ‘guiding mind’ under Great British Railways are seemingly in abeyance, and train operators and Network Rail are wilting under unprecedented government micro-management.
As things stand, the outlook for the immediate future seems exceptionally challenging, with little imminent hope of rapid resolution to the various industrial disputes involving operators, NR and the two largest rail trade unions.
In addition, significant cuts to services are now in prospect:
Rail Business UK can reveal that an operator has already offered to cease running trains on one route to save money; indications are that this is not a one-off proposal. Meanwhile, the Department for Transport has ordered Great Western Railway to withdraw its 16 refurbished ‘Castle Class’ IC125 trainsets over the next 12 months, without replacement, which is likely to lead to a sharp reduction in the number of trains running between Plymouth and Penzance, even if some services are covered by reallocated Class 802 trainsets.
Chiltern Railways and CrossCountry are under pressure to withdraw their loco-hauled and HST trains on cost grounds despite struggling to manage severe overcrowding against a backdrop of little to no fleet investment over the past decade and more.
This retrenchment comes in the context of DfT having static rail budget for 2023-24, which is in real terms a cut of around 10% because of inflation, and a reduction in available funding of around £1bn in the following financial year.