Ukraine-Where will it end?

[kylemore]

But of course to you this is all about the EU landgrabbing, because you refuse to drop the idea that this was all started by the EU in the first place even though there's no evidence for it...

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In this case they were merely the instrument, willingly or unwillingly.

 

[TheKnightWho]

In this case they were merely the instrument, willingly or unwillingly.

Exactly. That's apart from the fact that these protests happened because the old government mysteriously dropped all links with the EU overnight for no discernible reason. Even if the EU did fund the protests, no government can bribe/force mllions of people into protesting.

Plus, the EU acting in its own interests. Shocker! I love how Johnuk123 is decrying it as antidemocratic and empire building when this sort of thing is what built Britain's empire, and is exactly what Russia is attempting to do now. The reason it's out of date is the reason the EU don't care about Ukraine losing Crimea - it's all economics these days, and Russia's already paying the price on its stock markets. Investors are fleeting like rats from a sinking ship.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-the-stock-market-is-doomed-to-be-cheap/496377.html

But of course certain people in this country are still thinking as though it's 1946, and a few like it's the bloody 19th century.

 

[kylemore]

If you are a net exporter of oil and gas you can put your two fingers up to any "sanctions" imposed by net importers of same especially if you have the tacit backing of the World's No1. China.

The most worried faces are in Germany, the UK and Western Europe generally where this is likely to drive a coach and horses through Cameron's precious "Recovery"

 

[TheKnightWho]

If you are a net exporter of oil and gas you can put your two fingers up to any "sanctions" imposed by net importers of same especially if you have the tacit backing of the World's No1. China.

The most worried faces are in Germany, the UK and Western Europe generally where this is likely to drive a coach and horses through Cameron's precious "Recovery"

This would be true 5 years ago, but if things became dire I wouldn't be surprised to see fracking accelerated hugely if another oil crisis was threatened. Plus Russia's trade relies quite a lot of the US and EU - China alone cannot sustain them.

 

[Class172]

Don't know if anyone else has seen this, but here's a tongue-in-cheek campaign from Ukraine, reminding me off affairs in Crimea and Transnistria:

Donetsk to join UK

Some residents in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk have launched a tongue-in-cheek campaign to join the UK, because the city was founded by an industrialist from Wales, it appears.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Don't know if anyone else has seen this, but here's a tongue-in-cheek campaign from Ukraine, reminding me off affairs in Crimea and Transnistria:

Donetsk to join UK

There is a Sheffield Supertram stop at Donetsk Way....so the Donetsk part of Ukraine could affiliate itself to the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire..

 

[W-on-Sea]

Yep, it's been Sheffield's twin town for decades - back as long ago as when it was called Stalino, I think. Coal and steel were both vital to both cities then, too.

 

[Johnuk123]

Yesterday in a speech in Washington Philip Hammond the defence secretary said about the Russians intervention into Crimea :

Britain has not lost its 'appetite to intervene' as a military power.
I am used to representing a country whose resolve and willingness to use military force is not doubted.

This is from a bloke representing a Govt. that has systematically reduced our armed forces so much that we would be hard pressed to find 10,000 combat ready troops.
The Russian fleet in the Black Sea alone is twice as big as our navy.
Although we do have 2 half built aircraft carriers unfortunately with no planes.

I suggest Merkel, Hollande, Von Rumpy, and Ashton are all on the front line when we go over the top rather than waste another British life just to save face.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Yesterday in a speech in Washington Philip Hammond the defence secretary said about the Russians intervention into Crimea :



This is from a bloke representing a Govt. that has systematically reduced our armed forces so much that we would be hard pressed to find 10,000 combat ready troops.
The Russian fleet in the Black Sea alone is twice as big as our navy.
Although we do have 2 half built aircraft carriers unfortunately with no planes.

I suggest Merkel, Hollande, Von Rumpy, and Ashton are all on the front line when we go over the top rather than waste another British life just to save face.

Like I said already, we're not living in the world of the 19th century...

And really? Are you going to blame the EU for the decline of our national military now? The world is a complex place, as are the things that happen in it. It's very easy to come up with a generic scapegoat for everything you think is wrong with this country, but history has shown time and time again that doing so is extremely dangerous and simplistic.

The EU, for all its flaws, is not a bogeyman. You might do well to stop treating it as such.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I suggest Merkel, Hollande, Von Rumpy, and Ashton are all on the front line when we go over the top rather than waste another British life just to save face.

"Lions led by donkeys" is an apt phrase to recall here in the centennial of the start period of The Great War.

 

[ainsworth74]

The Russian fleet in the Black Sea alone is twice as big as our navy.

The Royal Navy could dispatch the Black Sea Fleet in an afternoon, comfortably, twice the size or not.

That being said the cuts in the armed forces over the last decade+ (and especially since 2010) do concern me.

 

[Johnuk123]

The Royal Navy could dispatch the Black Sea Fleet in an afternoon, comfortably, twice the size or not.

That being said the cuts in the armed forces over the last decade+ (and especially since 2010) do concern me.

Well it's not just us that's reduced the armed services, all over Europe it's the same which is one reason Putin knew he'd be able to go into Crimea without any problems.

The Americans are war weary and the President has made it clear that they won't be getting involved in Eastern Europe.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Well it's not just us that's reduced the armed services, all over Europe it's the same which is one reason Putin knew he'd be able to go into Crimea without any problems.

Has Russia made any such reductions in its armed services ?

 

[Oswyntail]

Well it's not just us that's reduced the armed services, all over Europe it's the same which is one reason Putin knew he'd be able to go into Crimea without any problems......

Do you honestly believe that, even with the armed forces of the West at the largest ever, all plonked in Germany, there would have been a military response to Putin? If you don't, why should he? If you do, well I'm glad you are not in charge, that's all. The reason armed forces are being reduced is that they are obsolescent, and you do not need the same numbers for inter-state warfare in the modern world. States like Russia need them more to cow their own citizens, and like a boy racer needs a Ferrari.

 

[ainsworth74]

Has Russia made any such reductions in its armed services ?

It depends on what period you wish to discuss. If we're talking 1990 to 2014 then yes there have been massive cutbacks but, of course, that has a lot to do with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic implosion that followed in the early/mid 1990s.

If you look at the last ten years then the picture is one that's more one of stagnation. The Russian armed forces haven't really shrunk but they've not really got any larger. They have, however, become a bit more capable in that there is a trickle of new equipment coming into service replacing antiquated Soviet era stuff and they're trying to improve the quality of the people within their armed forces.

But broadly speaking, during the most recent period that NATO forces have been undergoing downsizing, the Russian armed forces have not been through any downsizing, indeed I believe spending on the armed forces has increased quite dramatically (but that has yet to translate into significant growth due to the vast backlog of obsolete equipment that needs upgrading/replacing and also, one suspects, corruption).

 

[Johnuk123]

Has Russia made any such reductions in its armed services ?

Over the next 10 years Russia is committed to spend £800 billion on vastly increasing and modernising it's armed services.

By 2018 they expect to have 1 million regular soldiers, I million conscripts and 2 million reservists in the army alone.

They have fell behind in recent times and have a lot or outdated equipment but Putin has pledged massive increases in the budget.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Do you honestly believe that, even with the armed forces of the West at the largest ever, all plonked in Germany, there would have been a military response to Putin? If you don't, why should he? If you do, well I'm glad you are not in charge, that's all. The reason armed forces are being reduced is that they are obsolescent, and you do not need the same numbers for inter-state warfare in the modern world. States like Russia need them more to cow their own citizens, and like a boy racer needs a Ferrari.

There's no point, really. Some people refuse to live in the modern world, and will go to insane lengths to justify their delusions.

The modern world will see economic warfare, not military. That's aside from the fact that with 50% of the world's naval power vested in America, I'm really not that bothered about the RN.

 

[kylemore]

The Royal Navy could dispatch the Black Sea Fleet in an afternoon, comfortably, twice the size or not.

Oh this would be the same Royal Navy that didn't know there was a Russian guided missle cruiser swanning about our vital national resources in the North Sea until it was 150 miles off Inverness on Christmas Eve?

Not only that but only one ship was available in the whole of the UK to respond, in Portsmouth, the best part of a days sailing away which had to be scrambled and rushed at top speed up to the Moray Firth. An exchange of compliments ensued before the Russian made her excuses and left - no doubt her officers laughing uproariously over a Vodka or two about the "capabilities" of the famed Royal Navy!

 

[Johnuk123]

Oh this would be the same Royal Navy that didn't know there was a Russian guided missle cruiser swanning about our vital national resources in the North Sea until it was 150 miles off Inverness on Christmas Eve?

Not only that but only one ship was available in the whole of the UK to respond, in Portsmouth, the best part of a days sailing away which had to be scrambled and rushed at top speed up to the Moray Firth. An exchange of compliments ensued before the Russian made her excuses and left - no doubt her officers laughing uproariously over a Vodka or two about the "capabilities" of the famed Royal Navy!

That was a probing exercise that showed the Russians how short of ships we are.

Having a couple of modern vessels at the other end of the country isn't much use.

 

[BritishRail83]

The Royal Navy could dispatch the Black Sea Fleet in an afternoon, comfortably, twice the size or not.

That being said the cuts in the armed forces over the last decade+ (and especially since 2010) do concern me.

Spot on!

 

[ainsworth74]

Oh this would be the same Royal Navy that didn't know there was a Russian guided missle cruiser swanning about our vital national resources in the North Sea until it was 150 miles off Inverness on Christmas Eve?

Not only that but only one ship was available in the whole of the UK to respond, in Portsmouth, the best part of a days sailing away which had to be scrambled and rushed at top speed up to the Moray Firth.

Which of course only goes to show that the Royal Navy (and indeed the RAF as they provided airborne maritime patrol until Nimrod was axed without replacement) are somewhat undersized.

However, that incident doesn't change the fact that if, for some strange reason, it became necessary for the Royal Navy to destroy the Black Sea Fleet it could do so, comfortably, in an afternoon. The present dispersion of the Royal Navy do not change the reality that if gathered in one spot the Royal Navy remains a very potent adversary and is only going to get more so over the coming years.

And that's only the bits of it that you can see above the water

 

[Johnuk123]

.
The present dispersion of the Royal Navy do not change the reality that if gathered in one spot the Royal Navy remains a very potent adversary and is only going to get more so over the coming years.

I know the Russian navy has a lot of old equipment and I also don't expect anytime soon we'll be at war with them.

But no entire navy would ever gather in one spot it's not a very clever idea.

While our entire navy is in the Black sea where do you think the rest of the Russian navy would be.

 

[ainsworth74]

I know the Russian navy has a lot of old equipment and I also don't expect anytime soon we'll be at war with them.

But no entire navy would ever gather in one spot it's not a very clever idea.

Of course but I thought that an indepth discussion of naval tactics was probably beyond the scope of this forum. Further seeing as we aren't going to see the UK declaring war on Russia I didn't want to expend a great deal of time discussing tactics for a conflict that isn't going to happen. It might be interesting to discuss the tactics of NATO in such a conflict but again probably beyond the scope of this forum (and probably this thread!).

While our entire navy is in the Black sea where do you think the rest of the Russian navy would be.

My point was simply that whilst the Black Sea Fleet is twice the size of the Royal Navy the fact remains that the Royal Navy is the superior force. Obviously taking the Russian Navy as a whole the situation changes somewhat but that's not what you said

 

[Johnuk123]

Of course but I thought that an indepth discussion of naval tactics was probably beyond the scope of this forum. Further seeing as we aren't going to see the UK declaring war on Russia I didn't want to expend a great deal of time discussing tactics for a conflict that isn't going to happen. It might be interesting to discuss the tactics of NATO in such a conflict but again probably beyond the scope of this forum (and probably this thread!).



My point was simply that whilst the Black Sea Fleet is twice the size of the Royal Navy the fact remains that the Royal Navy is the superior force. Obviously taking the Russian Navy as a whole the situation changes somewhat but that's not what you said

You're right, discussing advanced naval tactics on here is probably not a good idea.

 

[kylemore]

However, that incident doesn't change the fact that if, for some strange reason, it became necessary for the Royal Navy to destroy the Black Sea Fleet it could do so, comfortably, in an afternoon.

Probably along the lines of what the Russian Admirals thought before Tsushima

 

[Monty]

It's worth noting that some of the ships in the Black Sea Fleet haven't put to sea in years, they are hopelessly outdated and only 5 of those ships are true combat vessels, they also have two very old submarines. It would not be a major challenge to the RN if it wished to neutralise the fleet if it so wished even in its reduced shadow we see today. Russia has indeed pledged to increase it's defense spending but the bulk of it has gone to the army and airforce. Even troops in the Crimea arn't exactly using cutting edge gear, they are still relying on BTR-80 APCs for transport. The AFRF (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) are still decades away from getting anywhere near the readiness or equipment of NATO formations. It just so happens they are still better than the Ukrainian Army.

 

[TheKnightWho]

It's worth noting that some of the ships in the Black Sea Fleet haven't put to sea in years, they are hopelessly outdated and only 5 of those ships are true combat vessels, they also have two very old submarines. It would not be a major challenge to the RN if it wished to neutralise the fleet if it so wished even in its reduced shadow we see today. Russia has indeed pledged to increase it's defense spending but the bulk of it has gone to the army and airforce. Even troops in the Crimea arn't exactly using cutting edge gear, they are still relying on BTR-80 APCs for transport. The AFRF (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) are still decades away from getting anywhere near the readiness or equipment of NATO formations. It just so happens they are still better than the Ukrainian Army.

I don't think we should equate fewer ships with a worse fleet. Equally, I don't think we should expect to have the navy we had of yore with regards to the rest of the world, considering the distinct lack of empire.

Make no mistake, though - the RN today could annihilate the 1,000 ship fleet we had in WW2 in an afternoon.

 

[Monty]

I am under no illusion that we have this need for a huge navy that we once had, but I do agree with others that it's current size it alarmingly small for our current requirements. When labour withdrew the Harrier FA2 fleet, cut the the Type 45 order and paid off the first 3 Type 23s it set a dangerous precedent that the Coalition have continued after the withdrawal of the last remaining Type 22 Frigates and Harrier GR7/9.

At the moment it's not really noticible as all we are doing is sending the odd ship to the Horn of Africa and the Caribbean for anti-piracy/drug operations. It's going to be a lot harder in the future when our new aircraft carriers are commissioned and will require a battlegroup to escort it. Now I respect the fact we probably don't have the cash to increase our escort fleet but what we should be doing is building corvettes for littoral duties around the UK. Using a Type 23 on fisheries protection and other meanial tasks is not what they were designed for nor can we afford to let it happen when our escort fleet is frightfully small!

 

[kylemore]

Make no mistake, though - the RN today could annihilate the 1,000 ship fleet we had in WW2 in an afternoon.

The Royal Navy could dispatch the Black Sea Fleet in an afternoon, comfortably, twice the size or not.

Doesn't the Gray Funnel Line (RN) do Mornings then?

 

[ainsworth74]

Sure but that depends if the Russians are over their hangovers before midday