Ukraine-Where will it end?

[kylemore]

Yeah, it is good chatting I don't think we really disagree all that much, though, but are just look at it from different perspectives.

God knows Putin is not whiter than white, far from it, but this is a dirty world and if you play clean you end up as mincemeat!

One aspect I've not seen elsewhere is that it is possible to interpret the uprising in the East as a sort of working class movement opposed to the EU/IMF free market slave economy, with a hankering to the old Soviet certainties, and that is not what Putin and his allies in Russia's free market (albeit a different beast) want to encourage, hence their reticence in outright support of the "rebels". In other words wheels within wheels.
Do you think that argument has any legs TKW?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The Ukrainian military forces have today now re-established control over the airport at Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, which had been taken over by pro-Russian "civilian" forces.

 

[TheKnightWho]

God knows Putin is not whiter than white, far from it, but this is a dirty world and if you play clean you end up as mincemeat!

One aspect I've not seen elsewhere is that it is possible to interpret the uprising in the East as a sort of working class movement opposed to the EU/IMF free market slave economy, with a hankering to the old Soviet certainties, and that is not what Putin and his allies in Russia's free market (albeit a different beast) want to encourage, hence their reticence in outright support of the "rebels". In other words wheels within wheels.
Do you think that argument has any legs TKW?

You might be right in that, although have a read through that article I linked - it spends a considerable amount of time debating whether Ukraine really can be considered part of the West or the East. There's pretty conslusive evidence that Ukraine got enormously f*cked over by Russia during the 20th century, and most Ukrainians feel that way.

That being said, some of the not inconsiderable Russian population in the east very much seem to to think that way, although by no means all of them. There's a strange irony in them protesting to join a society that bans protest!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There's a strange irony in them protesting to join a society that bans protest!

A point well made.

 

[ainsworth74]

If the events in Ukraine were happening in Mexico or Canada then the US would quite legitimately be worried and entitled to take action to protect her interests but Russia is not so entitled!

I'm not sure that if the situation was changed and it was either Mexico or Canada who had seen massive protests against the government that we'd see the US annexing Newfoundland or Baja California (two pick two bits of those countries) and claiming them as US territories.

I could see them deploying troops to 'keep the peace' but to rock up and say 'this is ours now' I don't think so.

And really? Fighting for survival? Give me a break...

Maybe not from outside (though I wouldn't be surprised if China didn't occasionally cast an eye at all those resources sitting in Siberia where there are very few Russians) but the demographic and economic picture most certainly isn't pretty in the long term.

Then again there is an old saying about Russia that she is 'never as strong as she looks nor is she as weak as she looks'.

I'm more interested in the MILLIONS who have been killed since 2001 and in Entire Countries turned into HELLHOLES by the USA elite's continuing struggles to maintain World hegenomy.

Afghanistan would meet most of the criteria of a 'hellhole' prior to the Coalition invasion and occupation and since the March 2003 invasion the Iraqi government has at least not used Nerve Gas on it's civilian population.

You might be right in that, although have a read through that article I linked - it spends a considerable amount of time debating whether Ukraine really can be considered part of the West or the East.

I still think it was unwise to ever even think about courting Ukraine with regards to the EU and especially NATO (and I still maintain that with the Baltic States also) as that was tantamount to poking Russia in the eye with a stick. No matter what the Ukrainians might feel Russia considers Ukraine to be in its back garden and was never likely to take a move to the West without some sort of response.

And seeing as the Russian local foreign relations tool kit normally relies on coercion followed by violence the present situation should not be particularly surprising.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I still think it was unwise to ever even think about courting Ukraine with regards to the EU and especially NATO (and I still maintain that with the Baltic States also) as that was tantamount to poking Russia in the eye with a stick. No matter what the Ukrainians might feel Russia considers Ukraine to be in its back garden and was never likely to take a move to the West without some sort of response.

And seeing as the Russian local foreign relations tool kit normally relies on coercion followed by violence the present situation should not be particularly surprising.

My issue with this point is that it reduces Ukraine to simply an object to be won, rather than a country which can democratically choose to make its own choices. Of course the EU is going to respond positively if Ukraine chooses to tighten relations. If the EU hadn't responded at all out of fear of Russia, that would be a staggering display of weakness on the world stage.

 

[DownSouth]

Afghanistan would meet most of the criteria of a 'hellhole' prior to the Coalition invasion and occupation and since the March 2003 invasion the Iraqi government has at least not used Nerve Gas on it's civilian population.

If you have any evidence that they did before March 2003, you may want to forward that to Tony Blair's lawyers for use in his eventual trial for war crimes and crimes against peace.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Noting the strength of the pro-Israel lobby in the USA and the ability of certain American agencies to foster internal disquiet, it does seem somewhat coincidentally strange that two of the large countries bordering Israel, Egypt and Syria, have both seen internal conflict in recent times.

Has anyone else noticed this to be the case ?

 

[Oswyntail]

If you have any evidence that they did before March 2003, you may want to forward that to Tony Blair's lawyers for use in his eventual trial for war crimes and crimes against peace.

I seem to remember [citation required] that it was widely reported that Iraq used chemical weapons in the Iraq-Iran war, in the suppression of the Kurds in 1988, and in control of the Marsh Arab regions before 2001.

 

[kylemore]

Afghanistan would meet most of the criteria of a 'hellhole' prior to the Coalition invasion and occupation and since the March 2003 invasion the Iraqi government has at least not used Nerve Gas on it's civilian population.

No now we just support the Syrian "Rebels" who use nerve gas on their own people in order to blame it on the "Evil" Assad Regime.

I seem to remember [citation required] that it was widely reported that Iraq used chemical weapons in the Iraq-Iran war, in the suppression of the Kurds in 1988, and in control of the Marsh Arab regions before 2001.

Cheered on (at least in the Iraq/Iran war) and possibly even supplied with same by the US.

 

[ainsworth74]

My issue with this point is that it reduces Ukraine to simply an object to be won, rather than a country which can democratically choose to make its own choices. Of course the EU is going to respond positively if Ukraine chooses to tighten relations. If the EU hadn't responded at all out of fear of Russia, that would be a staggering display of weakness on the world stage.

True but my impression has always been that the EU was, to an extent, courting Ukraine. This is where my issue lies. If Ukraine came to the EU wanting closer ties then discussions could be held but it really should have been them coming to us.

But I still maintain any tightening of relations with Ukraine was going to lead to something like this and I feel it could be argued that any attempt to do so should have therefore taken account of this and included some way of countering Russian aggression.

If you have any evidence that they did before March 2003, you may want to forward that to Tony Blair's lawyers for use in his eventual trial for war crimes and crimes against peace.

Halabja

No now we just support the Syrian "Rebels" who use nerve gas on their own people in order to blame it on the "Evil" Assad Regime.

So you're deflecting rather than engaging with the point? Also can we see your evidence to back up that point? Because I've not seen anything conclusive either way yet. Also our support ain't exactly all that much other than words...

Cheered on (at least in the Iraq/Iran war) and possibly even supplied with same by the US.

Source?

 

[kylemore]

Halabja



So you're deflecting rather than engaging with the point? Also can we see your evidence to back up that point? Because I've not seen anything conclusive either way yet. Also our support ain't exactly all that much other than words...



Source?

There aren't going to be any Ainsworth, so hands up you've won that point!

I read extensively on the subjects I'm interested in but don't keep exhaustive records I'm afraid - I'm taking part in a general forum on a railway discussion site I'm not taking part in the Oxford Union debate and merely expressing my opinions, I really don't care whether people are persuaded to my way of thinking or not.

"Engaging with the point"?
Yes I do not dispute that Iraq used chemical weapons in the 1980s and that is to be regretted and discouraged, however the USA used chemical weapons in Vietnam just a few years before - and they pretended to be so offended by their use? Thats double standards - so do you support the invasion of a country, the killing of 100,000s (at least) and permanent reduction of a previously civilised (for most of it's population) country to a permanent hellhole based on double standards?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Noting that Russia has made veiled threats about the Ukrainian forces not taking any action against the pro-Russian separatists, there has been very little comment from the Russians concerning the shooting down of a Ukrainian military helicopter that was ferrying personnel, with much loss of life, by the same pro-Russian separatists in the last 24 hours.
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No now we just support the Syrian "Rebels" who use nerve gas on their own people in order to blame it on the "Evil" Assad Regime.

The opposition forces ranged against the Assad regime do indeed cover a wide range of option beliefs, some of which appear to be from the same groupings who will not settle for anything less than a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy led state.
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Afghanistan would meet most of the criteria of a 'hellhole' prior to the Coalition invasion and occupation

Is it not strange indeed that the American film industry are now not making the "Rambo" films about " a brave American special forces" personage helping the local Afghanistan "freedom fighters" against the invading forces who have tried to exert control of their own country....or am I once again wearing my "cynical" hat on early this morning.

 

[TheKnightWho]

True but my impression has always been that the EU was, to an extent, courting Ukraine. This is where my issue lies. If Ukraine came to the EU wanting closer ties then discussions could be held but it really should have been them coming to us.

But I still maintain any tightening of relations with Ukraine was going to lead to something like this and I feel it could be argued that any attempt to do so should have therefore taken account of this and included some way of countering Russian aggression.

The EU are stuck between a rock and a hard place on that issue, as not acting would be seen as very weak. However, although Russia might act like it's still a "big dog" as it were, the EU's economy outmatches it by a factor of 10. If push came to shove, the EU can (and will) screw over Russia's markets, and we're already seeing that happen.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The EU are stuck between a rock and a hard place on that issue, as not acting would be seen as very weak. However, although Russia might act like it's still a "big dog" as it were, the EU's economy outmatches it by a factor of 10. If push came to shove, the EU can (and will) screw over Russia's markets, and we're already seeing that happen.

Noting the recent approaches made by Russia to China regarding the supply of gas, which shows they note the strategic value of this to the seemingly never-ending Chinese energy requirements, what other sizable sources of gas on the International Market are seen to be currently available to the EU that will match the current Russian supply. End May/early June is not exactly a high use EU domestic energy consumption period and I wonder how many EU industries have reliance on gas as a major fuel.

 

[kylemore]

Have things reached a bit of a stalemate?

Might the bottom lines for each side be:

Kiev - Degree of self rule in East tolerated as long as face saving Ukranian territorial integrity gauranteed.

Moscow - No NATO missiles in Eastern Ukraine?

The Russians are nothing if not pragmatists, they'll drop their friends or allies in the proverbial if it suits them. They dropped the Serbs in it in 1999 without a second thought despite pan-slavism etc etc - would to God they'd done the same in July 1914!

 

[ainsworth74]

Moscow - No NATO missiles in Eastern Ukraine?

When was that ever planned? I'm not aware of NATO plans to stage missile facilities in the Ukraine.

They dropped the Serbs in it in 1999 without a second thought despite pan-slavism etc etc - would to God they'd done the same in July 1914!

Would have been nice. Though I suspect another excuse would have presented itself eventually

 

[kylemore]

When was that ever planned? I'm not aware of NATO plans to stage missile facilities in the Ukraine.

Would they publicise it though?

Remember we only found out well after the event that the "Cuban" Missile Crisis was really the "Turkey" Missile Crisis about US/NATO plans to deploy Missiles in Turkey on the USSR's doorstep. The resulting USSR reprisal of threatening to deploy Missiles in Cuba had the desired effect of a US/NATO climb down, a Cold War defeat for the US -needless to say not the story the US/UK public were told at the time.

 

[ainsworth74]

Would they publicise it though?

Then how on earth, without using a very large tinfoil hat )), can you make the comment you did earlier...

Moscow - No NATO missiles in Eastern Ukraine?

I mean I might as well make a comment along the lines of 'No Russian base in Gibraltar'.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I mean I might as well make a comment along the lines of 'No Russian base in Gibraltar'.

I would support a Russian base there, but only if this is manned by Russian Orthodox Christians ready to dispel the fundamentalist Islamic "Black Flag" North African al-Quaeda in the Islamic Maghreb attempt to try to retake Spain...

 

[kylemore]

Then how on earth, without using a very large tinfoil hat )), can you make the comment you did earlier...



I mean I might as well make a comment along the lines of 'No Russian base in Gibraltar'.

I'm sure Russian Intelligence can find out about things that are not in the public domain - if not then what would be the point of having an Intelligence service?

Obviously if you're of the opinion that a Geo-political game is NOT being played out here then yes it's all tinfoil hatted conspiracy nonsense.

 

[ainsworth74]

Of course games (perhaps even, seeing as this is Russia we're talking about, a version of the 'Great Game') are being played and I don't doubt that for a second. I'm just not sure how wild (and I do mean wild seeing as they cancelled the Polish/Czech program) speculation that NATO had any plans to deploy missile's to Eastern Ukraine helps anyone?


-----


Reports this morning that a Ukrainian transport plane has been shot down by pro-Russian forces:

Ukraine crisis: Military plane shot down in Luhansk

Pro-Russian rebels have shot down a military transport plane in eastern Ukraine, killing all 49 Ukrainian service personnel on board.

Ukraine's defence ministry said the Il-76 transport plane crashed after coming under anti-aircraft fire over Luhansk.

In a statement it said "terrorists" had "cynically and treacherously" fired on the aircraft.

The plane was carrying troops and military equipment and was about to land at the city's airport.

It is thought to be the biggest loss of life suffered by government forces in a single incident since Kiev began an operation to try to defeat the insurgency in east Ukraine.

Military spokesman Vladislav Seleznov said "preliminary information" suggested all 49 military personnel on board the aircraft - nine flight crew and 40 troops - were killed.

He added that the investigation was just beginning into how the separatists brought down the plane, but initial reports indicated that three "Stinger-like" missiles were used.

BBC News

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There also have been reports of Russian tank incursions on an eastern border area of eastern Ukraine.
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Just looking at this current matter of the Russian view of matters in Ukraine, one could look at the matter of those areas on the southern territorial borders of Russian influence and note how the Russians have reacted in the past to events involving the Islamist beliefs of large swathes of the population of Chechnya, Dagestan, etc.
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I see the pro-Russian separatists who were said to have joined in a cease-fire have celebrated this by shooting down yet another Ukrainian military helicopter, killing all nine on board.

Perhaps "cease-fire" can mean all things to all men...

 

[W-on-Sea]

I don't believe a word Putin says any more - his track record now is clear: while the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is even more accomplished at being, shall we say, economical with the actualité than his boss.

 

[kylemore]

I don't believe a word Putin says any more - his track record now is clear: while the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is even more accomplished at being, shall we say, economical with the actualité than his boss.

Whilst everything that comes from the people on the other side who fire on school buses, use white phosphorus, blow up railway lines to derail civilian trains, burn women alive in union buildings etc etc is the "Pure and Simple"?

I'd believe Putin any day over the likes of lowlife like "Porky" or Kerry!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Whilst everything that comes from the people on the other side who fire on school buses, use white phosphorus, blow up railway lines to derail civilian trains, burn women alive in union buildings etc etc is the "Pure and Simple"?

I'd believe Putin any day over the likes of lowlife like "Porky" or Kerry!

Of course, the Russian military forces in the wars against Chechnya abided by the rules of the Geneva convention at all times...

 

[kylemore]

Of course, the Russian military forces in the wars against Chechnya abided by the rules of the Geneva convention at all times...

No probably not, never said they did, two wrongs don't make a right but it's small beer compared with the murder and mayhem let lose in the world by the US and it's lackeys/agents, 1.4million in Iraq alone.

 

[ainsworth74]

Can we start appending some sources for these various statements made by various parties?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No probably not, never said they did, two wrongs don't make a right but it's small beer compared with the murder and mayhem let lose in the world by the US and it's lackeys/agents, 1.4million in Iraq alone.

Shall we now be like the politicians and conveniently hark back to historical times, which do not impinge upon the times when we ourself were in power.

I'll see your "Americans and lackeys" and raise you the Russian 1930's starvation programme that killed millions in certain "bread-basket" areas under their power.

 

[kylemore]

Shall we now be like the politicians and conveniently hark back to historical times, which do not impinge upon the times when we ourself were in power.

I'll see your "Americans and lackeys" and raise you the Russian 1930's starvation programme that killed millions in certain "bread-basket" areas under their power.

I think theres more of a direct link between Obama (or rather the forces behind him) and Bush (or rather etc) than between Putin and the USSR that indeed caused the deaths of millions in Ukraine.
Mind you the Bolsheviks weren't fussy, you only had to look at the Cheka in a funny way to get a bullet in the back of the head for a large part of the 1920s!