UK General Election 2024

[YorkRailFan]

He is the member for Question Time West and he has lost 8 elections

He has currently lost 7 elections. Although there is a small chance it'll be 8 after today.

 

[Gloster]

This model has Alister Jack in Dumfries and Galloway as the only Tory to retain his seat.

It won’t be Jack as he has decided to jack it in: the new candidate is John Cooper, one of his advisors. Will Jack get a peerage after his admission/joke that he had placed a bet on the election; he was going to get one of Johnson’s nominations but didn’t want to leave the Commons then and was uncomfortable about staying there with the promise of one when the election was called? (Or maybe he didn’t trust Johnson’s promises, even though he isn’t female.)

 

[renegademaster]

The US and most of Europe have a very different mortgage structure and in general lower home values as a proportion of income.

What's different about US mortgages then British mortgages? Most people are home owners , and while Alabama may be cheap they have plenty of places with an as inflated housing market as we have.

 

[jfollows]

What's different about US mortgages then British mortgages? Most people are home owners , and while Alabama may be cheap they have plenty of places with an as inflated housing market as we have.

Fixed interest rates are the norm I think, for long periods.

So market rates affect existing mortgages less than they do here.

 

[Kaliwax]

Wonder what the next cabinet will look like and who will get each ministry.

 

[JamesT]

What's different about US mortgages then British mortgages? Most people are home owners , and while Alabama may be cheap they have plenty of places with an as inflated housing market as we have.

The US goes in for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Unlike here where there will be an introductory 1/2/5 year fixed period that then reverts to variable, there it's fixed for the whole life of the mortgage.
So swings in mortgage rates won't affect most US homeowners as they won't be forced off their current rate.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Who are 'they'?

It was one of the Reform mob. Can't remember which one.

 

[renegademaster]

The US goes in for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Unlike here where there will be an introductory 1/2/5 year fixed period that then reverts to variable, there it's fixed for the whole life of the mortgage.
So swings in mortgage rates won't affect most US homeowners as they won't be forced off their current rate.

Interesting
But still don't think it fundamentally changes things, just kicks the can down the road. People who are going buy now, will instead be stuck paying off 8% mortgages for the 30 years. You still have winners and loosers , just that the winners and loosers are different. While people on variable rates here will be back on 1% at the other end of the decade.

 

[Oxfordblues]

I know it's completely random, a small sample and of no real relevance, but judging by the readers' poll at the top of the page the Liberal Democratic Party will form the official Opposition tomorrow!

 

[jfollows]

Interesting
But still don't think it fundamentally changes things, just kicks the can down the road. People who are going buy now, will instead be stuck paying off 8% mortgages for the 30 years. You still have winners and loosers , just that the winners and loosers are different. While people on variable rates here will be back on 1% at the other end of the decade.

Yes, but the US mortgage holder can always remortgage to take advantage of lower rates too.

 

[bspahh]

It was one of the Reform mob. Can't remember which one.

It was reported in the Times

Reform UK candidate described autistic people as ‘vegetables’​

Darren Ingrouille, the party’s prospective MP for Chelmsford, made the jibe on social media.

The post was in March and has since been deleted.

 

[takno]

Interesting
But still don't think it fundamentally changes things, just kicks the can down the road. People who are going buy now, will instead be stuck paying off 8% mortgages for the 30 years. You still have winners and loosers , just that the winners and loosers are different. While people on variable rates here will be back on 1% at the other end of the decade.

What you expect is a much smaller variation in the interest rate - the lender won't be setting a 25 year fix at a rate of 5% based on a couple of years spike in the rate. More importantly the affected people will be making decisions about what size of mortgage they can afford to take out at that point - if they can't afford a mortgage that is perhaps 30% more expensive they won't go through with the transaction.

Personally I'd be surprised if the mortgage rates do go back down to 1% - I suspect (and hope) that structurally they'll trend around 2-3% in the future, just because I think the super-low rates over such a period have been really damaging both to the economy and the housing market.

 

[MotCO]

Yes - the grand exit poll released to great fanfare at 22:00 ish

And Mrs M was actually polled by IPSOS for the BBC/Sky News exit poll today. They were sampling every third voter on their way out, so I just missed out!

 

[Magdalia]

The fact that your mortgage hasnt got better is nothing to do with Liz Truss. The impact of her budget was short lived

No its wasn't. The UK is living with the impact now.

It absolutely doesnt - as this graph clearly shows. Liz Truss's budget had no impact on the US or Eurozone economies but interest rates there moved exactly in line with those in the UK.

Bank base rates are the price of short term money. They are not particularly relevant to this discussion, except for those who have a variable rate mortgage.

For fixed rate mortgages what matters are the bond yields for long term money, the 10 year bonds usually being taken as being representative. It is the long term government interest rates that set a floor for the interest rates at which commercial banks can raise money to lend out as fixed rate mortgages.

I'm not clever with the interweb and can't find a suitable chart that compares 10 year bond yields for Sterling and the Euro. Maybe some one can do that?

But since Truss the UK pays a significant "moron premium" for 10 year money compared to the Euro. According to the Bank of England the UK 10 year gilt is yielding about 4.2% whereas, according to the European Central Bank, AAA rated Euro 10 year bonds are yielding just over 2.6%.

Prior to summer 2022 the yields were much closer so the UK "moron premium", compared with the Euro, is currently about 150 basis points (1.5%age points).

 

[nw1]

Well I've just had confirmation that I've voted, or rather my proxy has - not in the UK on election day for the first time in my life, including those elections I was not eligible to vote for.

Glad I didn't use postal by the sounds of things!

My constituency is a knife edge one between the Tories and the Lib Dems, so will be interesting. A vote well worth casting, put it that way.

 

[J-2739]

Voted for the first time in my life just after 11am. In a church. Not very busy at all, but perhaps not a surprise for the time of day.

I'm probably speaking of inexperience here, but the whole process didn't feel as private as I thought it would be; nothing but a winged stand to protect my intentions from the prying eye. I honestly thought it would be some kind of booth?

 

[Vexed]

I'm probably speaking of inexperience here, but the whole process didn't feel as private as I thought it would be; nothing but a winged stand to protect my intentions from the prying eye. I honestly thought it would be some kind of booth?

I thought the same thing actually. I feel like I had distant memories with my mum of going in and shutting something behind us but it was just maybe 50cm on each side of plywood.

I went around the same time and there were 10 or so cubicles (if I can can call something so insignificant that) with a couple occupied.

 

[Busaholic]

was amused to see in today's 'Telegraph' a photo of Mr Farage speaking with Clacton Pier

Not much chance of it answering back!

 

[MotCO]

No its wasn't. The UK is living with the impact now.


Bank base rates are the price of short term money. They are not particularly relevant to this discussion, except for those who have a variable rate mortgage.

For fixed rate mortgages what matters are the bond yields for long term money, the 10 year bonds usually being taken as being representative. It is the long term government interest rates that set a floor for the interest rates at which commercial banks can raise money to lend out as fixed rate mortgages.

I'm not clever with the interweb and can't find a suitable chart that compares 10 year bond yields for Sterling and the Euro. Maybe some one can do that?

But since Truss the UK pays a significant "moron premium" for 10 year money compared to the Euro. According to the Bank of England the UK 10 year gilt is yielding about 4.2% whereas, according to the European Central Bank, AAA rated Euro 10 year bonds are yielding just over 2.6%.

Prior to summer 2022 the yields were much closer so the UK "moron premium", compared with the Euro, is currently about 150 basis points (1.5%age points).

But this is only half the story. Economics is often the sum of multiple inputs. There may well have been a 'moron premium', but there was also a significant impact following unduly low interest rates which could have affected any PM.
My post #1242 explains:

And she was scuppered by the Bank of England's actions over Liability-Driven Investments. These had been developed to offset the untraditionally low interest rates and their effect on pension investments. The BofE did not brief Truss nor the City on the ticking time-bomb that could explode once interest rates on gilts moved out of their expected range - in truth, they probably did not know what would happen. Truss's mini-budget sent gilt prices out of this expected range, and the rest is history.

Liz Truss wants to blame the establishment for sinking her plans

Was it really the establishment that foiled Liz Truss's growth plans, or misguided thinking and botched delivery? Alex Brummer takes a look.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

 

[Magdalia]

But this is only half the story. Economics is often the sum of multiple inputs. There may well have been a 'moron premium', but there was also a significant impact following unduly low interest rates which could have affected any PM.

No it couldn't happen to any PM. It could only happen to a PM that pursued economic policies that spooked the markets causing a collapse in bond prices.

And, given what we know about how much attention Truss and Kwarteng paid to what the Bank of England and the Treasury were saying about economic policy more generally, why do you think that she would have acted differently had she been briefed liability driven investments? She would have ignored that briefing in the same way that she ignored all the other briefing.

 

[Trackman]

And Mrs M was actually polled by IPSOS for the BBC/Sky News exit poll today. They were sampling every third voter on their way out, so I just missed out!

Was reading something about exit polls history the other day, a big mistake they made a few years ago (well a couple of decades) was not polling regular constituencies rather than just marginals. I have missed out on a poll once like yourself, not sure if it was IPSOS poll, but you have to put on £100 on for labour to win to receive 1p where I live.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I thought the same thing actually. I feel like I had distant memories with my mum of going in and shutting something behind us but it was just maybe 50cm on each side of plywood.

I'm also pretty sure I have memories of it being more private than it is today. The last few times I've voted it's just been a sort-of circular table divided into 4 with partitions so 4 people can vote at it at the same time and can't see each other, but someone standing behind you might see you. I suspect the protection is that, in order to see for sure how you voted, someone standing behind you would have to stand quite close and be obviously peering - and if someone did dare to do that, the polling station staff would probably notice and intervene.

 

[trainmania100]

Voted labour in support of the railways.

 

[Busaholic]

Interesting experience when voting in Penzance for the constituency of St Ives, now renamed St Ives, West Cornwall and Isles of Scilly but with the old boundaries. After voting I said to a teller ''I suppose we'll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon for the result as ballot boxes have to be flown from the Isles of Scilly'' but she replied ''oh, no, we're counting here tonight and Linda Taylor has told us the result from Scilly will be phoned in.''

Now, Mrs Taylor is the Conservative leader of the unitary Cornwall Council, but her name is on the election material disseminated by Derek Thomas, the Tory candidate here and its ex-MP. Her address is given as the St Ives constituency Conservative Association in Penzance, the same as Thomas. The Isles of Scilly have always been included in St Ives, and in all previous elections that I'm aware of no voting boxes were opened until they were all together, which I thought was a legal requirement so that all candidates and their representatives could monitor them. Was the teller wrong, will Mrs Taylor contravene electoral law, or what? The possibility of phoning results through is hardly one that has just become feasible! If there were a tight result here, which there often has been in previous years, and the Tory was pronounced the victor, I could foresee trouble. As it happens, Andrew George is expected to trounce the Tory for the LibDems and regain the seat after a break of nine years.

 

[johntea]

Amusingly I've just looked at the weather forecast for London tomorrow and it looks like Rishi (and Kier I guess) are potentially in for another soaking outside Number 10!

 

[Mikw]

Indeed, before the credit crunch and the aftermath of austerity, it was really only a few hard right-wingers banging on about immigration. It seemed to be sometime during the Cameron-Osborne austerity years that it started becoming "fashionable" amongst certain demographics to get into immigrant-bashing. If I had to put a date on it, probably late 2012/early 2013; it seemed to happen sometime between the London Olympics of 2012 and the Eastleigh by-election (local to me, saw a lot of the posters) in early 2013 which saw a large UKIP vote and, as a result. the Tories failing to gain the seat, at least for a while.

Your observation about citizenship and how it's more difficult to get it now compared to the Blair years suggests that the "hostile environment" of recent Tory governments isn't restricted to the EU or asylum-seekers either, but any other country, besides Ireland.

I think it may have been when austerity started to bite. As front line services became noticeably worse immigrants became something to pin the blame on.
We know that many areas hit hardest by austerity voted for Brexit for example

 

[43096]

Royal Mail have consistently stated that the problems with postal votes are not down delays in their system.

Presumably in the same way that they’re not responsible for Christmas cards arriving in March.

 

[Busaholic]

I'm also pretty sure I have memories of it being more private than it is today. The last few times I've voted it's just been a sort-of circular table divided into 4 with partitions so 4 people can vote at it at the same time and can't see each other, but someone standing behind you might see you. I suspect the protection is that, in order to see for sure how you voted, someone standing behind you would have to stand quite close and be obviously peering - and if someone did dare to do that, the polling station staff would probably notice and intervene.

Not much more private in the past - the difference now is that they're identical flatpacks assembled on site in every location, as far as I'm aware, though maybe exceptions have to be made in esoteric stations. I was a teller in the 1960s, before I could vote, as I worked for a local authority and also counted votes through the night. I only hope the sealing method for the ballot boxes is more effective than then, is all I have to say on the subject...

 

[JamesT]

Interesting experience when voting in Penzance for the constituency of St Ives, now renamed St Ives, West Cornwall and Isles of Scilly but with the old boundaries. After voting I said to a teller ''I suppose we'll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon for the result as ballot boxes have to be flown from the Isles of Scilly'' but she replied ''oh, no, we're counting here tonight and Linda Taylor has told us the result from Scilly will be phoned in.''

Now, Mrs Taylor is the Conservative leader of the unitary Cornwall Council, but her name is on the election material disseminated by Derek Thomas, the Tory candidate here and its ex-MP. Her address is given as the St Ives constituency Conservative Association in Penzance, the same as Thomas. The Isles of Scilly have always been included in St Ives, and in all previous elections that I'm aware of no voting boxes were opened until they were all together, which I thought was a legal requirement so that all candidates and their representatives could monitor them. Was the teller wrong, will Mrs Taylor contravene electoral law, or what? The possibility of phoning results through is hardly one that has just become feasible! If there were a tight result here, which there often has been in previous years, and the Tory was pronounced the victor, I could foresee trouble. As it happens, Andrew George is expected to trounce the Tory for the LibDems and regain the seat after a break of nine years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50766284 is a report from the 2019 election;

Votes from the Isles of Scilly could not be counted until the papers were collected by boat and taken to the largest island, St Mary's.
...
The results were declared at Truro Leisure Centre at about 14:40.
...
Votes from the Isles of Scilly are added to those from the rest of the St Ives constituency.

The result from St Mary's is phoned through to the count at the Carn Brea Leisure Centre in Camborne.

I can't immediately find anything that would prohibit votes for a constituency being counted in multiple places. As long as the votes are handled appropriately and representatives of the candidates are able to be at all the different counting centres, why shouldn't it be permitted?

 

[Ediswan]

I'm also pretty sure I have memories of it being more private than it is today. The last few times I've voted it's just been a sort-of circular table divided into 4 with partitions so 4 people can vote at it at the same time and can't see each other, but someone standing behind you might see you. I suspect the protection is that, in order to see for sure how you voted, someone standing behind you would have to stand quite close and be obviously peering - and if someone did dare to do that, the polling station staff would probably notice and intervene.

I do wonder if the polling station staff refrain from handing over the ballot paper until there is a free space at the table, thus avoiding any good reason to stand behind somebody actively voting.