UK General Election 2024

[Busaholic]

An independent candidate not having much policy substance meaning he is evil is quite a jump

For 'evil' read 'entitled and narcissistic'?

 

[WesternLancer]

Just had a Lib-Dem leaflet dropped through the door with the post. First communication since the election was called....although the new Tory candidate put out a very impressive illustrated leaflet soon after her candidacy was announced back in February. Nothing from any other parties....but local Labour canvassers may have swerved us as we have several Labour posters in the windows, as my wife is a party member.

Yes, one less path / garden gate / letter box / saved bit of paper to do!

 

[Kaliwax]

Yeah, it was more facetious really. I just find the whole thing deeply weird. If the only reason you're providing for people to vote for you is that you're local and not a career politician, then really you need to both be local, and be standing against a career politician.

Just reading the Scottish Family Party manifesto now, its horrible. Don't know how anyone could feel comfortable voting for these, its sexist, hypocritical, and transphobic among others. Also them wanting to defund any organisation, that promotes equality, I also get the impression from their manifesto, that they think the parents are always right and if a child comes into school saying they're being abused by the parents, that the party won't believe the child, as issues like that should be kept away from school according to them.

Horrible manifesto.

 

[43096]

Finally had some bumph arrive for Labour, the independent candidate and Reform. Reform couldn’t even get the name of their own candidate correct on the leaflet.

 

[DarloRich]

Labour party people round again yesterday afternoon. No sign of the incumbent Tories. Have they given up?

 

[SynthD]

I have goose bumps when I explain that I have realised the single lynch-pin flaw in our system of politics. The reason being is that I have also realised the solution.

The curse is career politicians…

From https://edinburghpeople.org/

If I used the first person that much to convince others to vote for me, please call me too self interested.

His Twitter has pro ceasefire and anti ulez tweets/retweets, but no clarification on policy, that’s at https://edinburghpeople.org/policies/. It seems like standard populist form. I think he wants them to become the biggest party in Edinburgh before they form opinions. “Career politicians are ok” will be one of them.

 

[SteveP29]

Sitting MP Joanna Cherry (SNP) has a small strapline SNP - for Scotland, but otherwise doesn't mention the party or its policies and boasts of being a thorn in their side. Pushing herself as independent. Opposes 'top-down' climate crisis policies and supports 'rights of women and girls'. Picture of candidate.

She was MP up until 3 years ago and now we're under the equally dreadful (although her heart is in the right place and she's actually a rather nice lady) Deirdre Brock

Don’t mention that foreigner Jules Rimet (still gleaming), though.

Gleaming in a trophy cabinet somewhere in Brazil

Maybe if other parties are scared of not getting in to power again because they're unattractive to 16-17 year-olds and foreign residents of the UK then they should try and be more attractive to those groups?

Radical thinking I know.

Radical, but not rocket science.
They don't half make it difficult for themselves, but what baffles me is why so many still vote for them, knowing all of this.

 

[nw1]

From https://edinburghpeople.org/

If I used the first person that much to convince others to vote for me, please call me too self interested.

His Twitter has pro ceasefire and anti ulez tweets/retweets, but no clarification on policy, that’s at https://edinburghpeople.org/policies/. It seems like standard populist form. I think he wants them to become the biggest party in Edinburgh before they form opinions. “Career politicians are ok” will be one of them.

They sound a bit like the SDP (version 2.0). Leftish on some issues but full on populist right on others. For example (from https://edinburghpeople.org/policies/):

The Net Zero targets are too ambitious and are coming at too great a cost. It is important to evaluate which policies are working and which are not before they are rolled out. It has been calculated that the cost of adapting to climate change is estimated at being less than 10% of the cost of stopping climate change. It is important to consider that the climate has always changed because of cyclical factors. The constantly changing angle of tilt of the earth’s axis and the constantly changing shape of the earth’s elliptical orbit around the sun have forever caused our climate to change.

and

The definition of a woman must not be changed to include men who have transitioned to becoming woman-like. Men who have transitioned to become woman-like should not be allowed to compete in women’s sport.

 

[bavvo]

Re-reading the


They sound a bit like the SDP (version 2.0). Leftish on some issues but full on populist right on others. For example (from https://edinburghpeople.org/policies/):



and

They sound no different to ukip/reform or any other right wing populist nonsense. Anti science, anti equality, anti environment, anti vax, anti 5g, anti cycle paths, anti trans. But with a token bit of leftism (no NHS privitisation)

Nothing about immigration, asylum or Europe, which seems a strange ommission considering the rest of their platform.

 

[renegademaster]

They sound a bit like the SDP (version 2.0). Leftish on some issues but full on populist right on others. For example (from https://edinburghpeople.org/policies/):



and

Galloway's party was my thought. Or Rahman's tower hamlets first. Localist , with some populist right causes , but also pro Palestine, unlike the others he doesn't seem to be chasing the Muslim vote though.

 

[takno]

They sound no different to ukip/reform or any other right wing populist nonsense. Anti science, anti equality, anti environment, anti vax, anti 5g, anti cycle paths, anti trans. But with a token bit of leftism (no NHS privitisation)

Nothing about immigration, asylum or Europe, which seems a strange ommission considering the rest of their platform.

I'm glad somebody could be bothered to find the policy section. I was struggling with the intense wall of nonsense in the candidate profiles.

I'd describe their platform as anti-Scottish-Green. I can see how they got there - the Scottish Greens are incredibly irritating, very regularly confidently wrong, and not really interested in the things I'd expect or want a Green party to be interested in. Unfortunately around the trans debate, all the parties apart from the Conservatives got too scared to call out what an appalling mess the legislative process and resulting legislation was, and how disturbingly cult-like Scottish Politics was becoming, with people being drummed out of the Greens and silenced in the SNP for expressing the mildest concern or doubt. That really created a feeling in me that Scottish Politics was hopelessly broken.

The whole cult seems to have largely collapsed since then however, and was never a Westminster issue in the first place. There were also things pushed through during that period which were good, and green policies supported by most of the parties which just make sense.

I'd no more vote for these clowns than I'd vote for me.

 

[oldman]

She was MP up until 3 years ago and now we're under the equally dreadful (although her heart is in the right place and she's actually a rather nice lady) Deirdre Brock

Before the dissolution Brock was Edinburgh North and Leith, Cherry Edinburgh Southwest.

 

[takno]

Before the dissolution Brock was Edinburgh North and Leith, Cherry Edinburgh Southwest.

There also wasn't an election 3 years ago, so I'd guess the poster moved.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think Edinburgh North and Leith and Edinburgh West have both had boundary alterations this time round, I hope this doesn't see the end of my old MP. Christine jardine for liberal democrats, she was excellent and really put her back into it after a somewhat jittery start

 

[Kaliwax]

Where I live, have had boundary alterations too, where I live now, we won't have the same MP as the people living in Normanton, even though, Normanton is literally 5 minutes away from where I live, and most of the residents in my village use Normanton for shops, libraries, and other facilities.
Last time my village had anything than a Labour MP, was in 1905!

 

[D6130]

Labour party people round again yesterday afternoon. No sign of the incumbent Tories. Have they given up?

Given the performance of the 'government' over the last five years, I suspect that they will be having severe difficulties recruiting many volunteers to go canvassing.

 

[telstarbox]

The line has to go somewhere and the Electoral Commission do try to keep communities together where they can.

 

[507021]

We've had two more flyers from the Liberal Democrats over the past few days, still nothing from the Tories or Green Party.

 

[DunsBus]

When the Scottish Greens leaflet came through the post last week, I just ripped it up.

 

[Howardh]

5 Labour leaflets through my door in total, Tories 1, think I had a Reform one but can't remember, and no Libdem ones: maybe cause they know I'm a supporter and lending my vote to Labour so a waste of time and money sending me anything - I get almost daily emails from them anyway!

Wine is now in the fridge ready for the exit poll!

 

[DarloRich]

When the Scottish Greens leaflet came through the post last week, I just ripped it up.

You could have put in the recycling!

 

[brad465]

If you want a summary of how wild this parliament has been, with emphasis on how far the Tories have fallen and Labour risen, look no further than this graph from John-Burn Murdoch:

x.com

x.com

(The graph shows the Tory seat projection changing from around 365 in 2019 to 210 by the time of Johnson's resignation in 2022, then falling further to around 100 in the present day. Labour meanwhile, started at 200, fell initially in covid, then gradually recovered to overtake the Tory projection at the end of 2021, went above the majority line of 326 around Johnson's resignation, before climbing even further over time to around 450 seats today)

 

[AlterEgo]

Just a few more days until they’re gone.

 

[Bayum]

I don't know if my anxiety/depression is worsening or whether it’s because I’ve been off work for so long… my sleep has been horrific the past four days. It’s 2am and the smallest things are setting me up to fail. It’s like I’ve got a bout of existential dread over politics - right now I’m not sure I can deal with another 5 years of Tories!. I’m constantly questioning myself that Sunak has either:

• Asked the party faithful to vote Labour in opinion polls to skew the result so it looks like Labour are winning when they’re not,
• Paid off the various companies with his many millions to skew the polls,
• Will launch an all out offensive this week as seen by the united front of the various right leaning tabloids today.

Is it just me?

 

[GusB]

Just reading the Scottish Family Party manifesto now, its horrible. Don't know how anyone could feel comfortable voting for these, its sexist, hypocritical, and transphobic among others. Also them wanting to defund any organisation, that promotes equality, I also get the impression from their manifesto, that they think the parents are always right and if a child comes into school saying they're being abused by the parents, that the party won't believe the child, as issues like that should be kept away from school according to them.

Horrible manifesto.

Seriously, don't bother your backside about that lot - it's a guaranteed lost deposit!

 

[birchesgreen]

Got to love the logic of today's Mail front page. The armed forces are too depleted for any kind of conflict now, so ..er.. don't vote Labour.

 

[nw1]

Wonder what the "unexpected factor" will be in this election?

In each of the last few there was an unexpected factor which I personally failed to predict, though others might have.

In 2010 the Tories did less well than I was expecting. I was thinking a small Tory majority but this did not happen due to a strong Lib Dem showing in the southwest.
In 2015 it was the reverse. The Tories did much better than I was expecting. was thinking hung parliament with Tories largest party, but we got a majority due to a very poor Lib Dem showing in the southwest.
In 2017 it flipped again and the Tories did less well than I was expecting. I was expecting a small majority for the Tories again; the Labour recovery in some urban seats which had been Tory since 2010 was unexpected.
In 2019 it flipped again and the Tories did better than I was expecting. I was expecting a small majority for the Tories once again (12 was my guess). The red wall gains were unexpected; I was merely expecting the Tories to take back some 2017 Labour gains. (In fact many or even most of those 2017 gains stayed red!)

So I wonder what the unexpected factor will be this year? If the pattern above is continued, the Tories will do less well than I am personally expecting; I have guessed 183 seats on the other thread. However the consensus seems to be between 100-150. Will this be wrong (either way)?

 

[telstarbox]

I think the Tories will cling onto 100+ seats rather than the various projections of under 100. The tactical anti Tory vote isn't obvious in some seats, and they still have deeper roots in the shires compared the new arrival Reform UK.

Interestingly I went to a hustings yesterday and the Reform candidate talked more about income tax brackets than immigration / small boats.

 

[nw1]

I don't know if my anxiety/depression is worsening or whether it’s because I’ve been off work for so long… my sleep has been horrific the past four days. It’s 2am and the smallest things are setting me up to fail. It’s like I’ve got a bout of existential dread over politics - right now I’m not sure I can deal with another 5 years of Tories!. I’m constantly questioning myself that Sunak has either:

• Asked the party faithful to vote Labour in opinion polls to skew the result so it looks like Labour are winning when they’re not,
• Paid off the various companies with his many millions to skew the polls,
• Will launch an all out offensive this week as seen by the united front of the various right leaning tabloids today.

Is it just me?

I'm not sure even the Tories would employ the kind of corruption required to implement the first two points.

The third, yes I can see that (is it just the Mail and Express or is the Sun joining the party too?) but then again they've been banging on about how awful Labour is and how they must never be allowed back into Government for the past 14 years so will people outside their regular readership start listening now?

I can see a better Tory performance than some of the polls but certainly not a Tory win.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Jul 2024 ==

I think the Tories will cling onto 100+ seats rather than the various projections of under 100. The tactical anti Tory vote isn't obvious in some seats, and they still have deeper roots in the shires compared the new arrival Reform UK.

Indeed, I think "the shires" is where they will cling on, with huge majorities still. No chance of Truss going, for example, sadly. And Hancock's old seat will surely remain true blue, even if he himself has gone.

I can see Labour taking back most of the 'provincial town' seats they held in 1997. That string of bellwether 'WCML seats' (Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Stafford, Crewe) I can see all going red, for example. However Essex and North Kent seems to have trended disproportionately rightwards and I think Labour will struggle to capture any there. I also think they may struggle more in semi-rural seats compared to 1997. Places like Kenilworth, Wyre Forest, North Warwickshire, etc, will probably be Tory holds.

Balanced against that, though, I think Labour will make first-time gains in larger southern towns such as Bournemouth and Worthing.

 

[DarloRich]

• Asked the party faithful to vote Labour in opinion polls to skew the result so it looks like Labour are winning when they’re not,
• Paid off the various companies with his many millions to skew the polls,
• Will launch an all out offensive this week as seen by the united front of the various right leaning tabloids today.

Do you think that these chancers have got the intelligence or ability to run such an involved conspiracy? They cant even work out if Wales have qualified for the Euros!

You are over thinking it.