UK General Election 2024

[Bantamzen]

One of the biggest obstacles to that is going to be labour shortages, especially skilled labour.

In this respect, being outside the EU single market is an advantage, as it allows an inward migration policy that can, for example, prioritise digger drivers over baristas.

Another aspect that should be given priority is giving the skilled workers currently employed in the oil and gas extraction industries a quick and clean pathway into the construction industry. People used to doing long stints out on oil and gas rigs in the North Sea could instead do those long stints on construction sites, without otherwise changing their lifestyles.

Longer term, the skilled labour should be coming out of the education system, but there are no instant results there.

I rather suspect that as oil / gas production is overtaken by greener production, many skilled workers in those industries will take their skills to the places hanging onto those energy sources the longest. So don't be surprised if they don't work their way into construction.

But as I suggest, if a lot of the new work is infrastructural then there is time to fire up apprentice schemes and get at least a couple of years worth of new talent into the pool.

On the face of it, increasing the supply of homes should not inflate prices in the housing market, but you are right that the impact on prices will depend on the size (and location) of new homes constructed. There is also a risk that labour shortages will inflate wages and push up the costs of new construction.

We've reached the point where £250k is now less than the average house price in England, which is around ~£300k.
It is lower in Scotland and Wales but even there £250k would not go as far as it used to.

But the fundamental point is that a house is a house, it doesn't particularly matter what segment of the market they are aimed at, because any new housing would depressurise the market.
Housing is just as susceptible to supply and demand as anything else, and I don't see how increasing supply would lead to increased prices.

I do question whether Labour will actually be able to build 1.5 million new houses without breaking the existing oligopoly of housebuilders though.

The problem is that new homes in the 250K - 300K market are not what's needed, its cheaper accommodation for those people who haven't a hope in heck of getting a mortgage anywhere near that range. So new stock not specifically aimed at low income families will just be swallowed up by the current market, and of course more and more landlords charging ever more eye-wateringly high rents.

And although in theory it *should* depress market rates, in reality I feel confident that it won't, at least not enough to ease the pressure on the rental sector. If anything they'll probably just help to increase rents, thus increasing values.

 

[AlterEgo]

I really don't see the Tories going below 100. My guess is about 130 seats.

 

[HSTEd]

The problem is that new homes in the 250K - 300K market are not what's needed, its cheaper accommodation for those people who haven't a hope in heck of getting a mortgage anywhere near that range. So new stock not specifically aimed at low income families will just be swallowed up by the current market, and of course more and more landlords charging ever more eye-wateringly high rents.

And although in theory it *should* depress market rates, in reality I feel confident that it won't, at least not enough to ease the pressure on the rental sector. If anything they'll probably just help to increase rents, thus increasing values.

Well this is where we disagree.

Although there is still a lot of pent up demand in the system due to the decades of major undersupply, demand for housing still remains largely finite.
House prices would have to fall an awful long way to cause major increases in second-home ownership (Excluding rentals)

Even if all that is manufactured is top end housing, that will still draw people out of older housing and allow the price falls to percolate through the entire housing ladder.
Overcrowding is forcing a lot of suboptimal choices at all levels of home ownership, not just at the very bottom.


The laws of supply and demand still apply, which is how we ended up in this mess in the first place.

 

[birchesgreen]

I really don't see the Tories going below 100. My guess is about 130 seats.

I dreampt it was 117 a few weeks ago, i'm hoping its that as it might mean some of my more exciting dreams come true as well.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well this is where we disagree.

Although there is still a lot of pent up demand in the system due to the decades of major undersupply, demand for housing still remains largely finite.
House prices would have to fall an awful long way to cause major increases in second-home ownership (Excluding rentals)

Even if all that is manufactured is top end housing, that will still draw people out of older housing and allow the price falls to percolate through the entire housing ladder.
Overcrowding is forcing a lot of suboptimal choices at all levels of home ownership, not just at the very bottom.


The laws of supply and demand still apply, which is how we ended up in this mess in the first place.

We'll have to agree to disagree then, maybe I'm just too cynical but it has always felt like the market generally goes in one direction only and is top heavy with people working it.

 

[renegademaster]

We'll have to agree to disagree then, maybe I'm just too cynical but it has always felt like the market generally goes in one direction only and is top heavy with people working it.

Look up New Zealand, build enough and eventually prices go down

 

[YorkRailFan]

Looking through Reform's "Our Contract With You" I found the following:

Scrap HS2
Save £25 billion by scrapping the rest of this vanity project.

Scrapping Phase 1 whilst construction is ongoing is really stupid, not even the Tories would do this.

Accelerate Transport Infrastructure
Focus on our coastal regions, Wales, the North and the Midlands. Improve existing road and rail links. Integrated services are critical.

I do agree with the last part on integrated services. No mention on how they would accelerate trains and what lines would be improved.

Tighter regulation and New Ownership Model for critical national infrastructure
The British taxpayer needs to be in control of Britain's utilities. Launch of a new model that brings 50% of each utility into public ownership. The other 50% would be owned by UK pension funds, benefitting from new expertise and better management. We will ensure standing charges are capped to help low users and pensioners.

https://www.reformparty.uk/our-contract-contents

 

[Bantamzen]

Look up New Zealand, build enough and eventually prices go down

Not really a good comparison, we have over 10 times the population but NZ average house prices are almost double of this country. So we'd need to build a lot of house to get to that point.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Plaid Cymru's manifesto touches on rail quite a bit.

Manifesto

www.partyof.wales

Ambition for our railways
We believe that rail infrastructure should be devolved to Wales, as it is in Scotland and Northern Ireland, allowing rail infrastructure planning for Wales to be decided in Wales.
Only 1% of UK Government capital spend is on railways in Wales, reflecting both current and historical under-spend. While London and major cities in Scotland were connected by electrified railways more than 50 years ago, it is only in the past decade that Wales has even had a single mile of electrified track.
With that £4,000,000,0000 additional funding, we could revolutionise our railways and transport systems, including connecting North and South Wales for the first time within Wales, reopening major railway lines closed under Beeching, electrifying the North Wales Main Line, improving existing railway services, and increasing and improving services West of Swansea.
To do that, Wales needs an ambitious travel plan that also considers public transport connections in the South Wales Valleys which do not have existing rail connections - including by use of trams or light rail.

Plaid Cymru clearly see that there is a business case for electrifying the North Wales Main Line, which is unsurprising.

 

[Noddy]

I'm not sure moving to the right is what has caused them to shed nearly 20% of the electorate to Reform!

If the Reform split hadn't happened they'd be neck and neck with Labour!

Not sure where you get this idea from. The Tories have been declining since mid-2021 and polling terribly since Liz Truss was PM. This was well before Reform’s recent rise in the polls, which seems to be peeling away voters from both the Tories and Labour.

Labour would still be ahead even if you did add both the Tories and Reform together. But as I say some of Reforms voters have come from Labour.


(Chart from Wikipedia)

 

[renegademaster]

average house prices are almost double of this country.

And it used to be more.

 

[HSTEd]

Not sure where you get this idea from. The Tories have been declining since mid-2021 and polling terribly since Liz Truss was PM. This was well before Reform’s recent rise in the polls, which seems to be peeling away voters from both the Tories and Labour.

Labour would still be ahead even if you did add both the Tories and Reform together. But as I say some of Reforms voters have come from Labour.

View attachment 160345
(Chart from Wikipedia)

I think polling outside of election periods is of relatively limited value as people are not really engaged, and politicians in opposition go out of their way to avoid saying anything controversial.
Nonetheless you can see that Reform's vote doubled, albeit from a low base at the time when that whole polling divergence occurred. I'd argue that its only during election campaigns that polling truly has meaning.

Additionally, YouGov has Labour level pegging with Reform+Conservative party at about 37%.


On another note, isn't it crazy that the presumptive next prime minister devoted a significant portion of a major interview to proposing to ban late kick-offs in the premier league?
Now I know that a lot of soft stuff gets mixed in in those things, but is that really a significant governmental issue?

 

[BrianW]

Possible 'battleground seats-the 'Sea Wall': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_wall_(British_politics)

Areas of economic deprivation (Blackpool, Clacton, Hastings, Middlesbrough, etc) and sewage discharge

 

[birchesgreen]

On another note, isn't it crazy that the presumptive next prime minister devoted a significant portion of a major interview to proposing to ban late kick-offs in the premier league?
Now I know that a lot of soft stuff gets mixed in in those things, but is that really a significant governmental issue?

Depends on the audience doesn't it? (Which was?) Obviously saying it to a meeting of the CBI is probably no, but a bunch of Sun readers yes.

 

[AlterEgo]

Possible 'battleground seats-the 'Sea Wall': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_wall_(British_politics)

Areas of economic deprivation (Blackpool, Clacton, Hastings, Middlesbrough, etc) and sewage discharge

It'll be interesting to plot votes against discharge of faeces per cubic metre.

 

[nw1]

I dreampt it was 117 a few weeks ago, i'm hoping its that as it might mean some of my more exciting dreams come true as well.

I dreamt that Labour and the Tories were neck-and-neck with around two-thirds of seats declared. This was early in the campaign though, when there was a possibility, albeit remote, that the Tories might catch up. I think it was around the time of the Diane Abbott controversy.

Then again I dreamt that Boris had a majority of just 12, or might have been 2, I can't remember, in 2019 - on the actual night of the election. (I didn't watch that one live as I knew it wouldn't go too well for my politics...)

 

[brad465]

Not sure where you get this idea from. The Tories have been declining since mid-2021 and polling terribly since Liz Truss was PM. This was well before Reform’s recent rise in the polls, which seems to be peeling away voters from both the Tories and Labour.

Labour would still be ahead even if you did add both the Tories and Reform together. But as I say some of Reforms voters have come from Labour.

There are also Reform voters who wouldn't vote at all, or might vote for an independent, if Reform were not standing in their seat.

 

[renegademaster]

To know the answer we'd need to wait until we actually have the vote numbers. Labour could have a greatly increased number of votes, or all the tories could be staying ,which yougov doesn't tell you. Blackpool by election had very poor turn out even for a by election and had the Labour absolute vote share fall by 2000. Their probably won't be a huge amount of Conservative-> Labour voters

 

[JonathanH]

I dreamt that Labour and the Tories were neck-and-neck with around two-thirds of seats declared

No chance of that. The traditionally Labour seats declare much earlier than the more rural seats.

Six hours into the 1997 results, of 505 seats, Labour had 373, Conservatives had 90 and Liberal Democrats had 31. Of the remaining seats to declare, Labour got 45, Conservatives 75 and the Liberal Democrats 15.

 

[brad465]

To know the answer we'd need to wait until we actually have the vote numbers. Labour could have a greatly increased number of votes, or all the tories could be staying ,which yougov doesn't tell you. Blackpool by election had very poor turn out even for a by election and had the Labour absolute vote share fall by 2000. Their probably won't be a huge amount of Conservative-> Labour voters

That's often how elections go, get more of your core support to vote and rival support to not turn up. In 2019 the Tory vote count only increased by a few 100k, but a collapse in Labour turnout allowed a strong Tory majority that wasn't there before.

 

[Busaholic]

To know the answer we'd need to wait until we actually have the vote numbers. Labour could have a greatly increased number of votes, or all the tories could be staying ,which yougov doesn't tell you. Blackpool by election had very poor turn out even for a by election and had the Labour absolute vote share fall by 2000. Their probably won't be a huge amount of Conservative-> Labour voters

It depends what you mean by huge swing from Tory to Labour. It doesn't need a huge percentage change to produce a Labour overall majority if others are switching to LibDem in Blue Wall seats, Reform in others and Labour are grabbing ScotsNat votes too.

 

[Darandio]

Well that was the strangest party political broadcast i've ever seen, weird conference style perspective with GB News style graphics. I'm convinced more than ever that the Tories are trolling themselves.

 

[Cross City]

Had the Labour candidate for Bromsgrove at my door this evening. This is the only canvassing I’ve had so far, not even a leaflet from any other party.

Very pleasant woman who’s confident she can overturn the 23k Tory majority. The MRP polls have Labour within a point or two, Survation even has them ahead, and if they manage to flip a seat like Bromsgrove (Sajid Javid outgoing) then the Tories are in for a real hiding.

 

[Ediswan]

Well that was the strangest party political broadcast i've ever seen, weird conference style perspective with GB News style graphics. I'm convinced more than ever that the Tories are trolling themselves.

Did you see the Reform broadcast last week ? A single static six word caption for the whole time, no audio.

 

[Darandio]

Did you see the Reform broadcast last week ? A single static six word caption for the whole time, no audio.

I have now, strange!

 

[Trestrol]

I'm wondering what the next Ed Davey publicity stunt. Ed bungy jumping, Ed parachuting out of a plane, Ed wrestling crocodiles, Ed wing walking, Ed being ripped apart by lions, Ed.......(Insert the next ludicrous stunt). I don't know who came up with their campaign but it's doing nothing for me.

 

[birchesgreen]

Still waiting for some literature apart from Labour (which i get anyway as a member) and a single leaflet from the Trade Union Socialist Coalition.

Mind you the TUSC were third last time so i guess they are organised around here.

 

[The Ham]

One of the local Facebook pages had a pro Tory post, within the responses (other than someone who is known to be a Tory) every comment was negative towards what the Tories had said.

Whilst that doesn't determine voting intentions, it shows that the normal thing to do is to show yourself not to support the Tories. Given how safe this seat was last time (and at every general election since the seat was formed) that's quite a change.

It'll be a shock if it changed hands, however the more I see the less of a shock it would be if it did. If this seat flips we'd be well into the sub 100 seats, if not sub 50 seats for the Tories (hence why it'll be a shock if it changed hands).

That's for a seat which the Lib Dems don't have on their list of key seats to target, which would likely mean that if they won it then it would be quite a shock.

 

[dangie]

From the BBC:

‘Boris Johnson's endorsement of Conservative election candidates "will make a difference", Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said.’

Well it’s certainly made my mind up….

Boris Johnson campaign help will make a difference, says Sunak

Boris Johnson is backing Tory candidates and warning about Reform but has yet to appear on the campaign trail.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm wondering what the next Ed Davey publicity stunt. Ed bungy jumping, Ed parachuting out of a plane, Ed wrestling crocodiles, Ed wing walking, Ed being ripped apart by lions, Ed.......(Insert the next ludicrous stunt). I don't know who came up with their campaign but it's doing nothing for me.

It‘s got you talking about it…


The bigget unknown in this election is the voting behaviour of Shy Tories. If, despite all that has been said, they go out and still vote Tory, then the Labour majority will be in the region of 100. If they don’t vote, then the Labour majority will be much bigger. If they vote Reform (and I really can’t understand why anyone with any intelligence would, but some will…) then it will still be a big Labour majority but with a conservative party in complete disarray.