UK General Election 2024

[GRALISTAIR]

So Labour and Conservatives continue to fall whilst smaller parties take higher share. Are we seeing death of 2 party politics ?

WE can hope!

 

[nw1]

P.S. NF in this context equals Nigel Farage, but back in the day it stood for National Front, a far right nationalist, racist movement. Just saying...

I had exactly the same thought about 45 minutes ago. Again, just saying...

 

[edwin_m]

Thank you for this 'response' which seems to say not very much- I wonder how convinced Her Majesty was as to the Benefit- Cost Ratio of economists. Lessons learned? A follow-up since 2009??

If All the Economists Were Laid End to End, They Would Not Reach a Conclusion

George Bernard Shaw (allegedly)

 

[Howardh]

Well, Starmer's trying his best to lose this election. Discounting, totally, giving us our freedom of movement back, he could be a Tory or Reformist. Who do we rejoiners vote for now? Only one party south of the border, the Libdems; unless it's a secret ploy by Starmer to force a coalition and then his mind will be made up for him.

Got a very heavy heart this morning.

 

[nw1]

Well, Starmer's trying his best to lose this election. Discounting, totally, giving us our freedom of movement back, he could be a Tory or Reformist. Who do we rejoiners vote for now? Only one party south of the border, the Libdems; unless it's a secret ploy by Starmer to force a coalition and then his mind will be made up for him.

Got a very heavy heart this morning.

Mind you that was never on the agenda for the next 5 years, was it?

Labour are presumably trying to deal with the Reform threat by avoiding any overly pro-EU policies for now. I guess we have to live with that, for now. I remain convinced, however, that UK-EU relations will be very much better once Labour have got in and bedded down, so to speak. Unlike the Tories they have no "pride" reason for keeping distant, awkward relations.

So as a strongly pro-FoM person I will still be voting tactically for Labour. It's a case of playing the long game and accepting that nothing radical will happen in the first parliament - the focus will be on fixing the broken relations.
(In fact, I will be voting Lib Dem - tactically - though as it happens the Lib Dems would be my party of choice of the three main ones in any case).

 

[Howardh]

Mind you that was never on the agenda for the next 5 years, was it?

He did promise "a better relationship" or words to that effect. If he could stop this biometrics and ETIAS nonsense that's on it's way - before it happens would be a great boost, he could call it "freedom of travel" and the same for goods back and forth. I imagine there will be great public unease in autumn when we are forced to have biometrics taken (followed by ETIAS next year) even if we just to go to France for the day. That will be on his desk!

"Freedom of Travel" and "Freedom of Goods" would be a huge vote-winner I reckon. And it wouldn't disrespect THAT vote.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Well, Starmer's trying his best to lose this election. Discounting, totally, giving us our freedom of movement back, he could be a Tory or Reformist. Who do we rejoiners vote for now? Only one party south of the border, the Libdems; unless it's a secret ploy by Starmer to force a coalition and then his mind will be made up for him.

Got a very heavy heart this morning.

Other views are of course available but he really is a tad hopeless

 

[nw1]

He did promise "a better relationship" or words to that effect. If he could stop this biometrics and ETIAS nonsense that's on it's way - before it happens would be a great boost, he could call it "freedom of travel" and the same for goods back and forth. I imagine there will be great public unease in autumn when we are forced to have biometrics taken (followed by ETIAS next year) even if we just to go to France for the day. That will be on his desk!

"Freedom of Travel" and "Freedom of Goods" would be a huge vote-winner I reckon. And it wouldn't disrespect THAT vote.

Perhaps he will enter negotiations on that at some point in the next five years (on a reciprocal basis) - the rationale being the high volume of travel between the UK and France and the delays all this will cause to travellers and goods - but not immediately because there will be a whole load of things in his in-tray. Don't US and Canadian citizens have some kind of arrangement to make it easier for each to visit the other's country?

Mind you if Le Pen wins the forthcoming French parliamentary election I can't see her party being particularly supportive of weakening the border...

 

[Howardh]

Perhaps he will enter negotiations on that at some point in the next five years - the rationale being the high volume of travel between the UK and France and the delays all this will cause to travellers and goods - but not immediately because there will be a whole load of things in his in-tray.

Mind you if Le Pen wins the forthcoming French parliamentary election I can't see her party being particularly supportive of weakening the border...

If he focuses on the economy then getting stuff and people moving between the UK and EU should be top priority. If he insists on EU/EEA's having full passports rather than ID cards to enter the UK many won't come thus depriving us of income. Foot and shoot!!

I agree Le Pen could be an issue, but if UK borders with the EU are loosened and she won't between UK/F then Belgium and Netherland's ports will, no doubt, be happy to take the slack!

 

[nw1]

Other views are of course available but he really is a tad hopeless

Or perhaps he's smart. Trying not to offend anyone is his best route to power.

 

[Howardh]

Or perhaps he's smart. Trying not to offend anyone is his best route to power.

He needs to be more specific about what he intends to do r/e Europe. He does say Johnson's deal was a mess (or something, don't have the exact quote) - so if it was, what will Starmer do??

 

[Whistler40145]

Sunak is completely hopeless and full of false promises

 

[317 forever]

Latest poll tracker shows Labour about 42% (down from about 45% at start of Campaign)

Conservatives at about 22% so gap still around 20-21%, but of course if this continues for next 3 weeks (which is an unknown), could be lots of smaller parties in opposition.

I have seen lot of talk in last couple of day about tactical voting, and avoiding Labour getting big majority (or super-majority as Grant Shapps seems to have named it).

Staring to get interesting, with Sunak now at G7 in Italy (probably his last) and small parties pushing view that Labour policies are same as Conservatives, and now the pushing of a large Labour majority could be bad. Seems to me going to big focus on tactical voting in next three weeks to reign in Labour.

Any swing from Labour to LibDems could save more Tory seats going Labour than Tory losses to LibDem.

However, it would mean a more balanced Parliament.

If the Labour vote falls below 40% we could have a Labour landslide with a lower vote share than achieved by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017. It's vote differential and geographical spread of votes that cause number of seats achieved.

 

[eyebrook1961]

Sunak is completely hopeless and full of false promises

Sorry, but you could replace "Sunak" with the surname of 99% of all other politicians - I have little to no faith in any promises made by the collective bunch of shysters.

 

[Whistler40145]

14 years has been long enough for the current government and they don't deserve to continue

 

[Magdalia]

If he focuses on the economy then getting stuff and people moving between the UK and EU should be top priority.

Top priority is breaking the shackles holding back the high growth, high productivity parts of the economy such as renewable energy and life sciences. Restrictions on movement of people and stuff between the UK and Europe is one of those shackles, but not the most significant.

 

[Snow1964]

Well, Starmer's trying his best to lose this election. Discounting, totally, giving us our freedom of movement back, he could be a Tory or Reformist. Who do we rejoiners vote for now?

I must admit the Nick Robinson interview on TV last night did seem like Starmer was holding back on what was planned in big areas, if felt to guarded and selective to me.

Not so much he was actively trying to lose the election, more he was blatantly being sneaky and hiding forthcoming plans.

Personally I would like no party to get a majority, so parties are forced to work together to untangle the mess and move the country forward together with proper rebuild plan for next 10-20 years, rather than implementing short term change things for sake of it policies.

 

[renegademaster]

Others on the left starting to go back to the smaller parties would have always been inevitable as it comes clear their is no hope for the Tories. Kier will have to convince people it will actually be close for them to come back.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jun 2024 ==

Personally I would like no party to get a majority, so parties are forced to work together to untangle the mess and move the country forward together

In reality political squabbling will just mean nothing will change from the status quo as nobody will be able to get the votes to get anything done. Look at Germany with its Center Left- Right Libertarian - Green Coalition

 

[nw1]

In reality political squabbling will just mean nothing will change from the status quo as nobody will be able to get the votes to get anything done. Look at Germany with its Center Left- Right Libertarian - Green Coalition

Or, non-controversial things will go through, while controversial things will be held in check.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jun 2024 ==

Personally I would like no party to get a majority, so parties are forced to work together to untangle the mess and move the country forward together with proper rebuild plan for next 10-20 years, rather than implementing short term change things for sake of it policies.

My preferred outcome would be Lab-Lib Dem coalition but unless Labour lose a lot of votes, it's somewhat unlikely to happen.

If Electoral Calculus is anything to go by, though, the Lib Dems will do really quite well, it seems. They are forecast to become the main party (for MPs) in Surrey, for example.

 

[Whistler40145]

If Labour are the majority party, I very much doubt they'd want Reform as the official opposition

 

[renegademaster]

while controversial things will be held in check.

The controversial stuff being any major infrastructure project or substantive spending that would be needed to fix anything, while the only stuff that would pass would be feelgood laws that ultimately don't change anything.

 

[simonw]

If Labour are the majority party, I very much doubt they'd want Reform as the official opposition

Reform will be lucky to get more than a handful of seats. Their support whilst concentrated in some areas is not enough to get the percentages needed to win many seats. I also doubt they have the number of activists needed to get their vote out on election day.

 

[The Ham]

If Labour are the majority party, I very much doubt they'd want Reform as the official opposition

I'm also of the view that Reform are unlikely to get enough seats to be in opposition.

Firstly, there's a lot of vote share between them and the Tories, given the way that the right are they are unlikely to vote tactically and so will likely split the vote.

Secondly, they have no MP's currently, so would have a lot of work to even get to the Lib Dems levels of MP's.

Thirdly, unless you like the current leader, there's not the breadth of people doing the media rounds to attract the breadth of support needed to get lots of MP's.

 

[Whistler40145]

I'm also of the view that Reform are unlikely to get enough seats to be in opposition.

Firstly, there's a lot of vote share between them and the Tories, given the way that the right are they are unlikely to vote tactically and so will likely split the vote.

Secondly, they have no MP's currently, so would have a lot of work to even get to the Lib Dems levels of MP's.

Thirdly, unless you like the current leader, there's not the breadth of people doing the media rounds to attract the breadth of support needed to get lots of MP's.

If there's no change in the polls, it's a possibility that the Liberal Democrats could become the official opposition

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm also of the view that Reform are unlikely to get enough seats to be in opposition.

Firstly, there's a lot of vote share between them and the Tories, given the way that the right are they are unlikely to vote tactically and so will likely split the vote.

Secondly, they have no MP's currently, so would have a lot of work to even get to the Lib Dems levels of MP's.

Thirdly, unless you like the current leader, there's not the breadth of people doing the media rounds to attract the breadth of support needed to get lots of MP's.

And related to that, as far as I can make out, they appear to be something of a 2-person organisation, being run entirely by Richard Tice and now Nigel Farage. They don't seem to have any significant party structure or organised membership, so I doubt they will be able to do much effective campaigning at a local level. That's going to hurt them despite any publicity they get nationally.

 

[dosxuk]

If Labour are the majority party, I very much doubt they'd want Reform as the official opposition

There's zero chance of reform ending up as the second, third or even fourth largest party. It won't even remotely figure into their plans.

 

[Whistler40145]

There's zero chance of reform ending up as the second, third or even fourth largest party. It won't even remotely figure into their plans.

Thank goodness

 

[jon0844]

P.S. NF in this context equals Nigel Farage, but back in the day it stood for National Front, a far right nationalist, racist movement. Just saying...

I think they're interchangeable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jun 2024 ==

There's zero chance of reform ending up as the second, third or even fourth largest party. It won't even remotely figure into their plans.

If Nigel Farage manages to become MP, I am convinced he'll defect to the Tories and then attempt to become the leader. I can't see him being remotely serious about the Reform party long-term.

Like Boris, it's all about him. Stuff the party.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

He did promise "a better relationship" or words to that effect. If he could stop this biometrics and ETIAS nonsense that's on it's way

How is Starmer supposed to stop ETIAS? ETIAS is being implemented by the EU, not by the UK Government. It's simply not within the UK Government's power or responsibility.

Besides, ETIAS basically means you will fill in an online form and pay 7 Euros to travel to an EU country, and it's valid for up to 3 years. Hardly seems an onerous requirement or something that is worth much energy getting bothered about? The fact that the US has for some years been running a similar (but more expensive) scheme doesn't seem to have caused any significant problems for UK citizens wanting to travel there.

 

[renegademaster]

And related to that, as far as I can make out, they appear to be something of a 2-person organisation, being run entirely by Richard Tice and now Nigel Farage. They don't seem to have any significant party structure or organised membership, so I doubt they will be able to do much effective campaigning at a local level. That's going to hurt them despite any publicity they get nationally.

It's quite common in Europe including a few who have led governments but normally under party list systems