UK General Election 2024

[SuspectUsual]

No, it wouldn't.

1. Price inflation outstripping wage inflation isn't the same thing as 'negligible economic growth' (though it is connected to the extent that the lower growth is, the less likely we are to feel better off).
2. We're talking about the perception of paying more to get less public services. Price inflation outstripping wage inflation would cause people to feel worse off in their personal incomes, not necessarily the services they get from the Government.

Yes it would - because price inflation would increase the cost of providing public services, so unless taxes were increased and/or government took on ever more debt, less services would be provided and thus people would (rightly) feel they were getting less

 

[RT4038]

Arguably it's not about what you want though, it's about what society needs.

You might not need certain health, education, transport or welfare services, but others might.

I have no children, and never will, but I do not resent my taxes being used to fund school education, for example.

Well it is, because what 'you' think society needs may well be different to what 'I' think society needs. There is 1 teacher per 100 pupils vs. every pupil having their own individual teacher [ to take an extreme example] and this principle is mirrored in all the sectors you mention. 'You' may think per mile road user charging and passenger fares should pay for all the country's transport needs whereas 'I' may think that it should all be free paid for by taxation. I don't think there will be many who would advocate no Government expenditure in any of those sectors, but plenty of argument as to what level is needed. It is not about resentment, it is about balance (the detail of which there are very many opinions !)

 

[DarloRich]

Sunak got his £2000 tax rise claim in which Starmer was far too slow in rebutting.

Agreed - he was too respectful of the format/moderator and kept saying " I need to rebut that" and then stopping when not given an opening. Sunak just kept talking.

 

[Busaholic]

As if you're going to jail for throwing a milkshake!

As someone who had a milkshake thrown over me as I emerged from a bus on Haymarket one Saturday long ago, I felt like committing GBH on the feral culprits, but they outnumbered me 5 to 1, so I shook myself off and went on about my business. No thought of involving the Met Police entered my mind.

 

[fgwrich]

So, if you haven’t seen it already it turns out that Sunak has achieved a new double feet this afternoon. His figures and hitting out at Labours tax rises were wrong, and after they have reviewed his figures it appears he’s lost the support of the Spectator Magazine (one of the most Tory supporting outlets out there).

On Sunak’s maths, Tories will lift taxes by £3,000 per household

There are serious issues at stake in this general election, and the Tories have just released nonsense figures with fake attribution.

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[najaB]

Is it? By itself, negligible economic growth should simply mean that everything stands still and (on average) no-one becomes any better off. No reason why that should lead to either a perception or a reality of continually paying more for less when it comes to public services.

Except the fact that inflation means that the constant tax revenue won't go as far as it used to.

 

[HSTEd]

I think I managed about ten minutes of the "debate" before I couldn't stand it any more.

I think a literal vacuum has more substance.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

As someone called Bill from Warwickshire once said...

"...It is a tale / Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, / Signifying nothing.”

 

[nr758123]

I think I managed about ten minutes of the "debate" before I couldn't stand it any more.

You lasted longer than me. I switched to the football on ITV4.

 

[deltic]

The Lib Dems party political broadcast is a heart wrenching biopic of Ed Davey - completely different to virtually any party political broadcast I've seen - https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975

Caring isn’t just my family's story, it is the story of millions, caring for each other, dealing with tough times, and keeping going with love. Sharing our story hasn't been easy, but it's important. It's time to bring carers' experiences into the light.

 

[birchesgreen]

I watched all of it, it was the worst thing i've ever seen and i was in 'Nam.

 

[MP33]

I watched the Ed Davey, woe is me broadcast. I was practising a couple of numbers for an Open mic night. I wished the instrument was a Violin.

 

[YorkRailFan]

I will be standing as an independent candidate for Chingford & Woodford Green at the General Election on 4 July.
I have reached this decision following hundreds of messages from people in my community, who say there are no options left for them. They are tired of the Tories but now feel they can’t trust Labour.

They feel disenfranchised by Labour’s decision to remove me and feel it would be impossible for the party to win here without a local candidate, rooted in the community, and that such a voice is vitally needed.

I am standing here to win, to beat Iain Duncan Smith and the Conservatives, to finish what we started.

I am standing to give a voice to my community – the community that made me and has put their faith in me.

I grew up here, went to school here and live here now. I was born at Whipps Cross, went to school in Chingford and had my first job at Greggs at Chingford Mount.

I love my community; it is a special place and deserves to be represented by someone who understands its needs and what it values.

It deserves an MP that listens to its problems and works their hardest to find solutions. An MP that understands people’s struggles to make ends meet amid the rising cost of living. An MP that fights for our underfunded local services, for investment in the NHS, supports our local businesses and is a champion for our town centres.

An MP that speaks out against permitting overdevelopment without the infrastructure to support it. That cares for our environment, campaigns for clean air, and against sewage dumps in our rivers.

It’s a community that deserves better than a mansion-dwelling Conservative MP, far removed from the reality of ordinary people’s lives.

I want to use what I have learned, my economic knowledge and my work to eradicate inequality, to argue for a better deal for local people who have suffered so much during 14 years of austerity.

My campaign will be powered by members of our community who have volunteered to support and work with me. It will be positive, forward looking and centred around what Chingford & Woodford Green needs from whoever forms the next Government.

With its recent actions, many local people think Labour has handed a winnable seat to the Conservatives for another five years. I aim to show that there is a progressive alternative to both parties that puts Chingford & Woodford Green first.

Faiza Shaheen
5 June 2024

Faiza Shaheen for Chingford and Woodford Green

Official website for Faiza Shaheen, the independent candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green.

www.faizashaheen.co.uk

Faiza Shaheen will stand as an Independent candidate for Chingford & Woodford Green, following in Corbyn's footsteps.

 

[Magdalia]

1. Price inflation outstripping wage inflation isn't the same thing as 'negligible economic growth' (though it is connected to the extent that the lower growth is, the less likely we are to feel better off).
2. We're talking about the perception of paying more to get less public services. Price inflation outstripping wage inflation would cause people to feel worse off in their personal incomes, not necessarily the services they get from the Government.

Price inflation has a direct link to the services that government can provide. That's because the public sector runs a deficit, a significant proportion of which has been financed by issuing index linked bonds. When inflation goes up, the intertest payments on those bonds go up, and there is less tax revenue left over for public services.

but it doesn't explain the way it feels like we're paying more to get less in other public services

Much of the cost of providing public services is pay.

I would argue that the most likely cause there is our increasing tendency to demand perfection in everything the Government does rather than - as would have been the case 50 years ago - accepting 'good enough'.

I agree on that. But these days what is good enough is often decided in court because of an increasingly litigious culture.

 

[43096]

I watched the Ed Davey, woe is me broadcast. I was practising a couple of numbers for an Open mic night. I wished the instrument was a Violin.

Did Simon Bates make an appearance complete with the "Our Tune" theme?

 

[brad465]

Away from all the news regarding this tax row, Richard Holden, who previously was MP in the disbanded North West Durham seat, appears to be being parachuted into the seat of Basildon and Billericay, causing uproar among the local Tories:

Richard Holden: Growing backlash after Tory chair lands safe seat

Richard Holden's selection in Basildon and Billericay is branded a "slap in the face" for local Tories.

www.bbc.co.uk

Conservative chairman Richard Holden looks set to be parachuted into a safe seat at the last minute, against the wishes of local Tories.
Two local Tory officials told the BBC Mr Holden was the only candidate offered by the national party to represent the Essex seat of Basildon and Billericay, with one saying it was a "slap in the face" for local Tories.
A cabinet minister told the BBC the move had "gone down like a bucket of cold sick”.
Mr Holden has represented North West Durham, nearly 300 miles further north, since 2019.
But his seat is being abolished as part of a scheduled review of UK seat boundaries for this year's election, meaning he had to find another one.
Mr Holden has not responded to requests for a comment. A Conservative Party spokesperson: “We do not comment on selections.”

'Mind blowing'​

A prospective Conservative candidate said: “I speak for an awful lot of people who are outraged.
"There are several cabinet ministers who are fighting marginal seats and know they are going down.
"Not only has Richard given himself a safe seat, but he’s used a ridiculous process no one has ever heard of before. It’s mind-blowing.”
It comes as the Conservative Party scrambles to put together a full slate of candidates ahead of the registration deadline on Friday.
Basildon and Billericay has been represented by veteran Tory MP John Baron since 2001, but he announced last October he would be leaving Parliament.
He won the seat for the Tories with a 20,412 majority at the last election, making it an attractive area for the party's candidates this time round.
Richard Moore, the chairman of the local association, told the BBC they had expected to get a choice of three hopefuls from the national party ahead of a meeting later to choose the candidate.

'Don't know him'​

But he said the central party's candidate committee rang him earlier to say "you’re just getting the one".
He added that local members were "extremely put out" that the party had waited until two days before nominations close to put forward a candidate.
"This could have all been done in March or April," he said, adding that the central party "have sat on this for seven months".
"My constituency people haven’t met Richard Holden. We don’t know him. We don’t know what he’s done," he added.
"Yes he’s chairman of the party, but so what? What has he done for Basildon and Billericay? Nothing."
Andrew Baggot, a local Conservative councillor, also criticised the process, calling it a "slap in the face to local councillors, volunteers and the membership".
He said association members were "exploring" options to fight the decision.
A meeting of the Basildon Conservative Association's executive council is expected to take place on Wednesday night to discuss next steps.
"Of course we are running out of time, because the nominations have to be in by 4pm on Friday," Mr Baggot told PA Media.
"We have to organise people. It is deliberately being left to the last minute to prevent any action being able to be taken."

While he needed to find somewhere else, the move is clearly geographically too far and the rift it's causing proves it.

 

[Gloster]

Away from all the news regarding this tax row, Richard Holden, who previously was MP in the disbanded North West Durham seat, appears to be being parachuted into the seat of Basildon and Billericay, causing uproar among the local Tories:

This does seem to be a bit of a risk for the Tories. Basildon & Billericay strikes me, who doesn’t know anything about the area (I keep well clear), that this is one of those seats where Reform and Farage might be particularly popular with all the local Dickies. An unusually bad campaign by Holden combined with a good one by the Reform one, together with a lack of interest from the other parties, could just give them the seat. Unlikely, but just possible.

 

[dangie]

Quandary:
What to do if your existing Member of Parliament has done a pretty good job, but doesn’t represent the party you wish to be in government?

Even more that the person representing the party you wish to be in government you know absolutely nothing about?

 

[najaB]

Quandary:
What to do if your existing Member of Parliament has done a pretty good job, but doesn’t represent the party you wish to be in government?

Even more that the person representing the party you wish to be in government you know absolutely nothing about?

Find out more about the person representing the party you do want to be in government and see if they appear to be capable of doing the job well. If not, then vote for the person who will best represent your constituency and hope for a good national result.

 

[gswindale]

Are Reform really the 7th biggest party in the UK?

Whilst I doubt any of the NI parties would partake in a UK wide debate, surely they should have been offered the opportunity to speak alongside the SNP and Plaid Cymru in place of Reform?

If that offer was declined then I would have restricted the debate to the 6 main parties (and possibly invited Larry the cat).

 

[AlterEgo]

The Lib Dems party political broadcast is a heart wrenching biopic of Ed Davey - completely different to virtually any party political broadcast I've seen - https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975

That was quite unexpectedly profound.

This has been a really good game by the Lib Dem comms people so far. They’ve spent a week showing him having fun on the campaign trail, falling in the water and so on, and then go for the gut punch with a very real and moving video.

 

[JamesT]

Are Reform really the 7th biggest party in the UK?

Whilst I doubt any of the NI parties would partake in a UK wide debate, surely they should have been offered the opportunity to speak alongside the SNP and Plaid Cymru in place of Reform?

If that offer was declined then I would have restricted the debate to the 6 main parties (and possibly invited Larry the cat).

With its former name of the Brexit Party, it got the sixth largest number of votes in the 2019 General Election. Well ahead of any NI party or Plaid Cymru. Though FPTP meant it didn’t get any seats.
In the last EU elections held in the same year, they picked up 29 of the 73 seats, comfortably the largest party.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2024/ofcoms-role-in-a-general-election-what-you-need-to-know is an Ofcom article on what broadcasters should be considering. The whole thing is worth reading though a bit too long to quote. It also links to their document on past election performance which does split out Reform from Other as it’s considered significant enough.

Ofcom also note that current electoral support, ie opinion polls can be used to inform the choice of who to invite. The most recent poll I’ve seen from YouGov had Reform on 17%, just behind the Tories on 19% and ahead of the LibDems on 10%. If that’s not significant enough support to be invited to a debate, what is?

 

[GusB]

Those of you who mocked Ed Davey's campaign video should really take a long, hard look at yourselves. You've clearly never had to care for a sick or disabled relative and you've no idea what you're talking about.

There are thousands of people who provide care, often unpaid, for their loved ones. They're "economically inactive" as far as the system is concerned but they're saving the state vast amounts of money at the same time. Shouldn't we be making sure that they're financially secure while carrying out such a vital task?

 

[The Ham]

An interesting take by the Spectator (who are normally fairly pro Tory):

On Sunak’s maths, Tories will lift taxes by £3,000 per household

There are serious issues at stake in this general election, and the Tories have just released nonsense figures with fake attribution.

www.spectator.co.uk

My colleague Ross Clark has shown how the Tories cooked up that £2,000 figure. They worked out the total cost of what they think Labour will do, using standard HM Treasury costings. Then, they divided that by the number of in-work households (18.4 million). This is a subset of the 21.4 million total UK households, so no pensioners or workless households. By choosing a smaller denominator, you concentrate the increase and conjure up a scarier figure. Then they quadruple-counted. So they took each year’s estimate for tax rise and then added them together over four years and – presto! – you end up with £2,000.

But let’s apply a similar method to the published plans of the Conservative government. We don’t need to guess what the cost of government would be: the projected tax haul figures were published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and updated in March after the Budget. It will be £1.02 trillion in the current financial year. That’s with the tax/GDP ratio at 36.5 per cent. Let’s use that as our baseline. The OBR says the Tories plan to increase taxes to 37.1 per cent of GDP by 2028/29. So the 0.6-point increase works out at £20 billion more tax raised in that year than if the tax/GDP ratio (below) had stayed flat.


Add up all four years (as the Tories did for their Labour calculation) and you end up with a £320 rise in year one, £620 in year two, £930 in year three and £1,150 in the final year. So: a sum of £3,020 per working household. Except this would be just as misleading as the £2,000 figure that Sunak used so often in the debate last night.

 

[Enthusiast]

That was quite unexpectedly profound.

This has been a really good game by the Lib Dem comms people so far. They’ve spent a week showing him having fun on the campaign trail, falling in the water and so on, and then go for the gut punch with a very real and moving video.

Those of you who mocked Ed Davey's campaign video should really take a long, hard look at yourselves. You've clearly never had to care for a sick or disabled relative and you've no idea what you're talking about.

There are thousands of people who provide care, often unpaid, for their loved ones. They're "economically inactive" as far as the system is concerned but they're saving the state vast amounts of money at the same time. Shouldn't we be making sure that they're financially secure while carrying out such a vital task?

But this is supposed to be a General Election campaign, not an episode of "This Is Your Life".

 

[takno]

But this is supposed to be a General Election campaign, not an episode of "This Is Your Life".

Okay, but is it not valid to chase the votes of a million or so unpaid carers, plus the people they care for and close family members who see them do it? That's quite possibly 5 million people who might finally feel seen, rather than being expected to waste their limited free time watching a policy-lite pissing match between Starmer and Sunak.

I probably won't vote Lib Dem, but this kind of thing makes it more likely, while the rest of the whole circus is an unedifying mess.

 

[DarloRich]

But this is supposed to be a General Election campaign, not an episode of "This Is Your Life".

and his approach to a general election campaign is to make it more personal and about his life. It is getting the Lib Dems goods publicity and improving his personal standing with the electorate. There have been many complaints that he has not been visible and now complaints he is visible!

 

[AlterEgo]

But this is supposed to be a General Election campaign, not an episode of "This Is Your Life".

So? I think it's good that a party leader is shown to have the same concerns as millions of normal people. It's come across a lot better than Sunak or Starmer's biographies.

Portraying politicians as real people with skin in the game is what happens in most elections. What do you think doesn't fit here?

 

[nw1]

This does seem to be a bit of a risk for the Tories. Basildon & Billericay strikes me, who doesn’t know anything about the area (I keep well clear), that this is one of those seats where Reform and Farage might be particularly popular with all the local Dickies. An unusually bad campaign by Holden combined with a good one by the Reform one, together with a lack of interest from the other parties, could just give them the seat. Unlikely, but just possible.

Interestingly Basildon was Labour from 1997 to 2010, though Billericay has been true-blue Tory for as long as I can remember. (They were formerly separate constituencies).

I guess Labour are out of the running this time a) because marginal Basildon has been combined with Tory-voting Billericay and b) this part of Essex is one of the areas that has drifted disproportionately rightwards of late.

 

[Purple Train]

Interestingly Basildon was Labour from 1997 to 2010, though Billericay has been true-blue Tory for as long as I can remember. (They were formerly separate constituencies).

I guess Labour are out of the running this time a) because marginal Basildon has been combined with Tory-voting Billericay and b) this part of Essex is one of the areas that has drifted disproportionately rightwards of late.

Billericay had one of the largest swings to Labour in 1997. Teresa Gorman was, however, defending a 22,500 majority so hung on. I would agree with you that "Basildon Man" will not define this election, however!