UK General Election 2024

[The Ham]

That's very idealistic. I will not be voting for the best candidate. I will be voting for the one who has the best chance of unseating the Conservative one.

Some may well say that would also be the best one, in that for them the Tory one would result in their life being made harder.

 

[NORMAN471]

Did Rishi Sunak take advantage of a photo opportunity at Summerseat on his visit to the East Lancs Railway today?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 May 2024 ==

Will the opposition leader go one better and attend the Keirthley and Worth Valley Railway Diesel Gala in a couple of weeks time?

 

[HSTEd]

Heating homes (in real terms) has got cheaper for people as homes have got better insulated.

Cost of lighting homes have done likewise as bulbs have moved to being LED.

Unfortunately (for the climate), Jevon's Paradox is already starting to tell.

Lighting energy consumption is still way down on the incandescent era but it is starting to climb again as people are taking advantage of efficiency to increase internal light levels.
My house is far more brightly lit than it was when I was using CFLs.

The same occurs for insulation, people celebrate their reduced heating bills by increasing their heating bills - they turn the thermostat up to increase thermal comfort.
It is unclear how much actual efficiency is gained from home insulation and such.

If anything the car fuel which is at risk is diesel, where there's slightly less than half the number is new cars as EV's (46,304 vs 107,031) and had lost 1.4% market share compared to the first for month is last year (at 6.8% down from 8.2%).

The diesel distribution infrastructure will be propped up by its use in heavy vehicles like lorries, coaches and the like.
If petrol sales for cars fall 30% a significant number of petrol sales locations will become outright unviable.
If diesel sales for cars fall 30% the effect will be much less pronounced, since a lot of the fuel is sold to lorries which are currently decarbonising more slowly.

I'd say diesel is much less likely to death-spiral than petrol.

Diesel is also not subject to the stringent home storage limits (275 litres in a properly engineered tank, and that only with a permit from the local petroleum enforcement authority) that petrol is.

 

[JamesT]

No one is suggesting that gas boilers will become obsolete overnight.

It was government policy until Sunak delayed it last year: https://ecoquotetoday.co.uk/boilers/gas-boiler-ban

The second gas boiler ban phase was for the all other properties. With new builds no longer including any gas boilers since 2025, the Heat and Buildings Strategy set forward plans to phase out natural gas boilers entirely by 2035. That meant that if you had a gas boiler in your home and it needed to be replaced after 2035, you wouldn't be able to install a new gas boiler. You’ would have to install a low-carbon alternative instead.

 

[The Ham]

It was government policy until Sunak delayed it last year: https://ecoquotetoday.co.uk/boilers/gas-boiler-ban

Making it impossible to buy a new boiler is different to making an existing boiler obsolete.

Also, seeing the date 10 years in the future is hardly overnight.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 May 2024 ==

Unfortunately (for the climate), Jevon's Paradox is already starting to tell.

Lighting energy consumption is still way down on the incandescent era but it is starting to climb again as people are taking advantage of efficiency to increase internal light levels.
My house is far more brightly lit than it was when I was using CFLs.

The same occurs for insulation, people celebrate their reduced heating bills by increasing their heating bills - they turn the thermostat up to increase thermal comfort.
It is unclear how much actual efficiency is gained from home insulation and such.

The point was that going green directly costs us more, we may well choose to use more energy to have more lighting and a more comfortable temperature.

However, that's through choice.

Also, that's not likely to carry on increasing. For example, once the temperature is at (say) 25° you're not going to put the temperature up higher just because it's cheaper to heat your home.

Likewise, you're not going to add 10 more lights to a room with 30 already in there.

The diesel distribution infrastructure will be propped up by its use in heavy vehicles like lorries, coaches and the like.
If petrol sales for cars fall 30% a significant number of petrol sales locations will become outright unviable.
If diesel sales for cars fall 30% the effect will be much less pronounced, since a lot of the fuel is sold to lorries which are currently decarbonising more slowly.

I'd say diesel is much less likely to death-spiral than petrol.

Diesel is also not subject to the stringent home storage limits (275 litres in a properly engineered tank, and that only with a permit from the local petroleum enforcement authority) that petrol is.

I didn't say that diesel sales were going to shut down, I said the car fuel at risk, i.e. that car engines (which can't be taken from a van) were likely to stop being developed.

 

[Irascible]

Sorry, is your argument that what is needed is more baking in of the status quo which has been, as you've said, set by a reactionary and contradictory government? If that's the case we are completely cooked. Incapable of visualising something better or fairer, as long as we have some stability as our society declines.

"Boring" does not mean "do nothing", it means "don't constantly reach for headlines" or along those lines. If what you mean is paralytic and incapable of formulating & executing policy, then that's a different matter.

I don't understand this point, what situation are you thinking of, and how do you think a milquetoast government of managerialists would be better to handle it?

Ukraine/Russia, middle east, anywhere else with a fluid & tricky situation we've managed to get tied up in - is *not* a situation for the mild or faint of heart. I literally said that. I hope Labour have found someone with some semblance of statecraft they can install in the Foreign Office...

That's very idealistic. I will not be voting for the best candidate. I will be voting for the one who has the best chance of unseating the Conservative one.

If that's what you think best represents you, then that's your best candidate. I've had to deal with MPs, I won't vote for one who I feel I can't deal with. Fortunately the candidate I'm likely to vote for manages to be good for the ward and also not a tory.

 

[HSTEd]

Also, that's not likely to carry on increasing. For example, once the temperature is at (say) 25° you're not going to put the temperature up higher just because it's cheaper to heat your home.

Likewise, you're not going to add 10 more lights to a room with 30 already in there.

Patio Heaters didn't use to exist, now they do.
Never underestimate the profligacy bred by cheap energy.

As for lighting, we are a long way from having sunlight levels of illumination inside, so I think there is a long way to go before room illumination preferences top out.

I didn't say that diesel sales were going to shut down, I said the car fuel at risk, i.e. that car engines (which can't be taken from a van) were likely to stop being developed.

My guess would be that the collapse of petrol sales will cause range anxiety in the owners of petrol cars and drive custom back to diesel.
If the only fuel you can easily get hold of is diesel, people will buy cars that can use it.
Just as general aviation in some places has moved towards aviation diesels due to the difficulty in sourcing avgas in less developed areas.

But I guess the only way to tell is come back in twenty years and see what happened.

 

[jon0844]

Unfortunately (for the climate), Jevon's Paradox is already starting to tell.

Lighting energy consumption is still way down on the incandescent era but it is starting to climb again as people are taking advantage of efficiency to increase internal light levels.
My house is far more brightly lit than it was when I was using CFLs.

I can't see how that's possible. I now have LEDs throughout my home, the front, and in the garden. The only incandescent bulb I can think of is in my microwave and electric oven.

Previously I had bulbs as high as 120W in the ceiling, and most other bulbs were 60W. Drop lights were 50W. Even wedge bulbs were (I think) 20W in kitchen cabinet lights and so on.

Now bulbs are between 0.5W and 7W. The outdoor lights might be nearer 20W.

It's fair to say that I have got some new lights (strip lights) but they're only a couple of Watts. Even if all of them were on at once, it would still be a fraction of what it was like before. I cannot imagine how many more lights I'd need to add to get to where it was before. Maybe 10 times more lights?

Almost all the current LED bulbs (certainly every smart one) is dimmable, so while obviously you could dim incandescent bulbs too (but CFLs not so well, if at all) I'd say it's far easier to control modern lights. And being smart, I can turn off lights even if I'm out of the house. Indeed, I have Alexa Echo devices with occupancy detection, so lights go off if there's nobody in a room for more than a specified time.

I am sure this paradox applies in some cases, but I don't turn up my heat hotter because my home is (fairly) well insulated [to 2003 new build standards].

I guess if fuel costs went down, I might drive more as cost is a consideration. When I get an EV, 2p a mile may certainly have the side effect of me being less bothered about driving efficiently - but I doubt I'd purposely drive more for the sake of it. That's more for buying a performance car or something.

 

[Yew]

It's worth remembering that LED's are ~10 times as efficient as Incandescent bulbs. Maybe light lebels are going up, but things certainly aren't 10 times as bright.

 

[The Ham]

Patio Heaters didn't use to exist, now they do.
Never underestimate the profligacy bred by cheap energy.

As for lighting, we are a long way from having sunlight levels of illumination inside, so I think there is a long way to go before room illumination preferences top out.

There's been a fashion of having outside heating for some time now (circa 2000 was the chiminea, which was log burning, so something gas fired is better, as are the electric heater version), while they weren't as widespread as outside heaters are now, the use now still isn't all that prolific.

Even when people have them, their use is still relatively limited throughout the year. Whilst places like pubs and restaurants do have them and use them more widely, with the significant shift away from going out to drink among younger people their use could start to fall away again.

However, none of those are likely to be subject to an outright ban (possibly with the exception of we have a green party government), and if they are then only a fairly limited number of people would be impacted.

My guess would be that the collapse of petrol sales will cause range anxiety in the owners of petrol cars and drive custom back to diesel.
If the only fuel you can easily get hold of is diesel, people will buy cars that can use it.
Just as general aviation in some places has moved towards aviation diesels due to the difficulty in sourcing avgas in less developed areas.

But I guess the only way to tell is come back in twenty years and see what happened.

Indeed, the thing I would add, is it also depends on which petrol stations locally to you allow lorries (locally to me it's mostly motorway services, so that's quite a pain to go and fill up at) and how the switch to EV's goes for vans.

I suspect, however, that the numbers who are willing to keep buying diesel, just as they've thought through the process of fuel supply is likely to be limited. As such, the fall in diesel car sales is likely to continue on a downwards trend to the point that manufacturers start to drop them from their lineup (and possibly quite rapidly within a brand - especially those brands where they don't have the numbers being sold to make it worthwhile).

However, the rules around the end of the road for ICE's within cars is fairly fixed, so again is unlikely to change the outcome of the election.

 

[jon0844]

It's worth remembering that LED's are ~10 times as efficient as Incandescent bulbs. Maybe light lebels are going up, but things certainly aren't 10 times as bright.

With most of the energy of an incandescent bulb being heat, if you look at the lumens then you'll likely find that a bulb using over ten times less energy is likely brighter too.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just a gentle reminder that this thread is for discussion of The UK General Election 2024. If anyone wants to discuss anything else then they are welcome to start a new thread in the appropriate forum section.

thanks

 

[Falcon1200]

I will not be voting for the best candidate. I will be voting for the one who has the best chance of unseating the Conservative one.

Which, given the state of the country, is entirely understandable. However here in Scotland politics is utterly skewed by the never-ending independence obsession, despite its resounding rejection in 2014, to the point where my vote will go to the candidate best placed to defeat the SNP; Even, maybe, to the Tory! Were it not for the stop the SNP factor, I would possibly not bother voting at all, for the first time since 1979, so disillusioned I am with politics and politicians in general.

 

[AlterEgo]

Which, given the state of the country, is entirely understandable. However here in Scotland politics is utterly skewed by the never-ending independence obsession, despite its resounding rejection in 2014, to the point where my vote will go to the candidate best placed to defeat the SNP; Even, maybe, to the Tory! Were it not for the stop the SNP factor, I would possibly not bother voting at all, for the first time since 1979, so disillusioned I am with politics and politicians in general.

Mm, yes very different! My hands would be tied up there. I might even hold my nose and vote Lib Dem if I was in Scotland.

 

[takno]

Which, given the state of the country, is entirely understandable. However here in Scotland politics is utterly skewed by the never-ending independence obsession, despite its resounding rejection in 2014, to the point where my vote will go to the candidate best placed to defeat the SNP; Even, maybe, to the Tory! Were it not for the stop the SNP factor, I would possibly not bother voting at all, for the first time since 1979, so disillusioned I am with politics and politicians in general.

Conveniently I live in the one outpost of Scotland that's had a Labour MP throughout, so voting against both the SNP and Tories is no problem at all.

Judging from the leaflets so far I'm not sure anybody else is even standing. In a closer election it might have been interesting for the Conservatives given the huge student vote who won't be around for the election, but on this occasion it's not realistically in contention for them.

 

[railfan99]

Has Gift Aid been mentioned?

Given it's helpful to heritage railways but comes at a cost to government, are all major parties likely to promise to keep it, or will it not even feature in the campaign?

 

[takno]

Has Gift Aid been mentioned?

Given it's helpful to heritage railways but comes at a cost to government, are all major parties likely to promise to keep it, or will it not even feature in the campaign?

I don't recall any politician mentioning it for years, and it's persisted and been expanded under both Labour and Conservative governments. I suspect that if anybody ever decided to cut it they would cut the higher rate relief which goes back to the taxpayers, rather than the basic rate relief the charities keep.

 

[SynthD]

Robert Largan, Tory MP for High Peak, Derbyshire, has put out Labour-red and Reform-blue background posters, implying backing from those parties, with text suggesting those voters should support him.

x.com

x.com

Last year he did the same with the Green Party. https://x.com/supertanskiii/status/1796878200351375765?s=46

 

[Darandio]

Robert Largan, Tory MP for High Peak, Derbyshire, has put out Labour-red and Reform-blue background posters, implying backing from those parties, with text suggesting those voters should support him.

x.com

x.com

Last year he did the same with the Green Party. https://x.com/supertanskiii/status/1796878200351375765?s=46

Surely that's against some sort of campaigning rule, especially during a General Election?

These are the two he has posted today. Desperate.

 

[Gloster]

Surely that's against some sort of campaigning rule, especially during a General Election?

These are the two he has posted today. Desperate.

I would think that using the official and registered name of a party without permission is probably an offence under the Registration of Political Parties Act 1998. If it has been produced by him (or his agent), I would think that he has already laid himself open to a legal challenge if he wins.

EDIT: The relevant law might be the Representation of the People Act 1983.

 

[BrianW]

Robert Largan, Tory MP for High Peak, Derbyshire, has put out Labour-red and Reform-blue background posters, implying backing from those parties, with text suggesting those voters should support him.

x.com

x.com

Last year he did the same with the Green Party. https://x.com/supertanskiii/status/1796878200351375765?s=46

Mr Largan's website shows 'Conservative' in a corner.
His entry on the Hose of Commons website shows him as having a government role as Assistant Whip.
Is he a Conservative parliamentary candidate and/or a charlatan?
He appears to have no shame and to have a passing relationship with ethical behaviour.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Surely that's against some sort of campaigning rule, especially during a General Election?

These are the two he has posted today. Desperate.

It says on behalf of the Conservatives in the corner.

 

[Howardh]

Hmmm, just got my letter today to apply for my state pension. Happy to receive it and the application's in already, sad that the day has come. From now on I'm an official grumpy old git!! Hopefully the pension goes up a bit before I get my first which should be late October - when are the increase dates annually??

I have been pestering my Labour candidate to increase the threshold...for everyone!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Given the current polling of the Conservative Party, can't say I entirely blame him for wanting to distance himself from that slow-motion trainwreck...

Hopefully the Electoral Commission or whichever office is responsible for such things, won't see the funny side- it isn't their job to do so.

 

[Howardh]

Given the current polling of the Conservative Party, can't say I entirely blame him for wanting to distance himself from that slow-motion trainwreck...

Hopefully the Electoral Commission or whichever office is responsible for such things, won't see the funny side- it isn't their job to do so.

If his posters are in red, then surely they will associate that with Labour, and look for the Labour logo on the ballot paper? After all, how many actually scroll down for a name rather than a party?
Chances are this will do the opposite of what he wants!

 

[Peterthegreat]

Hmmm, just got my letter today to apply for my state pension. Happy to receive it and the application's in already, sad that the day has come. From now on I'm an official grumpy old git!! Hopefully the pension goes up a bit before I get my first which should be late October - when are the increase dates annually??

I have been pestering my Labour candidate to increase the threshold...for everyone!

Pension increases are normally in April.

 

[317 forever]

No Lib Dems standing down is a surprise but I guess there are so few of them that standing down wouldn't make sense.

Most of the MPs standing down are either young enough to pursue other careers or old enough to retire.

Furthermore, 8 of the 11 who were elected in 2019 were new then or in 2016 or 2017. So, maybe they have been such a short time that they don't feel like standing down yet. And of course, the 4 by-election winners joined even more recently.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Furthermore, 8 of the 11 who were elected in 2019 were new then or in 2016 or 2017. So, maybe they have been such a short time that they don't feel like standing down yet. And of course, the 4 by-election winners joined even more recently.

No general election in 2016. Only the Brexit referendum.

 

[brad465]

Given the current polling of the Conservative Party, can't say I entirely blame him for wanting to distance himself from that slow-motion trainwreck...

Hopefully the Electoral Commission or whichever office is responsible for such things, won't see the funny side- it isn't their job to do so.

I wouldn't be surprised if the EC don't investigate it quickly enough to stop him being a candidate, although he only has a majority of 590 from 2019, so even if Labour collapse somewhat in this campaign he's still set to lose. The only way I can him being barred is if the act blows up in the media and the Tories are forced to drop him this week coming while he can still be replaced.

 

[takno]

I wouldn't be surprised if the EC don't investigate it quickly enough to stop him being a candidate, although he only has a majority of 590 from 2019, so even if Labour collapse somewhat in this campaign he's still set to lose. The only way I can him being barred is if the act blows up in the media and the Tories are forced to drop him this week coming while he can still be replaced.

I think it's entirely serious enough that he'd have to resign even if he did win the seat. I'd guess he thinks he can get away with it because Reform and Labour are just two ordinary nouns, but that's got the air of a very stupid man thinking he's being clever