UK General Election 2024

[Yew]

People certainly do for trips to New York and other eastern cities, perhaps not so much for elsewhere in the US.

I don't remember saying that nobody ever did? Regardless, it's certainly less common than a cheap Ryanair flight to Lisbon. Whilst the individual process takes a slither more time, it will result in stustantial and uncecessary delays at the port.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Which I suspect was not the case in 1972 or before. I suspect then, you could have totalled up a more-than-90-day visit to continental Europe without falling foul of any laws, by moving from country to country.
Even if the limit was 30 days for each country then, you could in theory have a 4-month trip by visiting four different countries.

The situation now is thus the most restrictive it's ever been since post-WWII austerity.

This analysis misses out two very important issues. Firstly, that pre-1990, half of continental Europe was behind the 'iron curtain' - so you could only travel there if you first applied for a visa which was difficult to get since the Communist Governments generally did not welcome visitors from the West. Legally, travelling to - say - Poland or Romania is FAR easier today than it was in 1972. Secondly, cost: Before around the mid 1970s, international travel was so expensive that basically, if you weren't very wealthy you couldn't do it. That's a very important factor in why legal immigration controls were often less restrictive up until about the 70s: They weren't perceived as necessary because the sheer cost and difficulty of international travel generally kept migration across the World down to very low levels anyway.

Take those things into account and you'll quickly realise that the overall situation today is much more favourable to travel to the continent that it was in 1972-ish.

 

[dosxuk]

Most people that I know who wanted to remain (admittedly, not that many) appear to have got over it. They have accepted that the UK has left, it is very unlikely to rejoin any time soon and, most importantly, they find no significant disadvantages have been visited on them.

I suspect you're either in an opinion bubble, or those who disagree with you have decided not to engage you in that conversation any more.

The sense I get is the opposite (and I admit I may be in the same situation, so neither of us can be sure how prevalent an opinion is held) - anger and frustration that we have left, however it is tempered by a realisation that no change is going to happen in the short term so we're going to have to put up with things getting worse and worse until they can get better. Few people express any doubt that we will re-join in the future, the only discussion is really about the timescales.

What can say is that polling since mid 2021 has consistently fallen on the side of Brexit having been a mistake. As of May 2024 one poll has it at 55% wrong decision, 31% right decision and the remainder as don't know.

 

[WesternLancer]

This analysis misses out two very important issues. Firstly, that pre-1990, half of continental Europe was behind the 'iron curtain' - so you could only travel there if you first applied for a visa which was difficult to get since the Communist Governments generally did not welcome visitors from the West. Legally, travelling to - say - Poland or Romania is FAR easier today than it was in 1972. Secondly, cost: Before around the mid 1970s, international travel was so expensive that basically, if you weren't very wealthy you couldn't do it. That's a very important factor in why legal immigration controls were often less restrictive up until about the 70s: They weren't perceived as necessary because the sheer cost and difficulty of international travel generally kept migration across the World down to very low levels anyway.

Take those things into account and you'll quickly realise that the overall situation today is much more favourable to travel to the continent that it was in 1972-ish.

Then there was currency control wasn’t there? A limit on the amount of sterling you could take out of the uk. Not sure how big that was but seem to recall it existed until Mrs T abolished it in 79. Probably not an issue for holidays but for prolonged stays maybe different matter?

 

[nw1]

Whoops - I had it in my head that he was born in 1960.

Barely any difference between being born in 1960 or being born in 1962, of course.

 

[jfollows]

Then there was currency control wasn’t there? A limit on the amount of sterling you could take out of the uk. Not sure how big that was but seem to recall it existed until Mrs T abolished it in 79. Probably not an issue for holidays but for prolonged stays maybe different matter?

£50, but that was “worth” a lot more than it is today of course. About £240 per https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator

I vaguely remember my parents filling in some form and I think getting my passport stamped before going on a French exchange for two weeks near Paris in summer 1975.

 

[nw1]

Then there was currency control wasn’t there? A limit on the amount of sterling you could take out of the uk. Not sure how big that was but seem to recall it existed until Mrs T abolished it in 79. Probably not an issue for holidays but for prolonged stays maybe different matter?

Ah, so Thatcher did at least one good thing then!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I suspect you're either in an opinion bubble, or those who disagree with you have decided not to engage you in that conversation any more.

Being in an opinion bubble is probably true of all us us to some extent. But I for one match @Enthusiast's description: I was a very strong Remainer at the time of the referendum and was bitterly disappointed by the result. But since then I've come to terms with it, I've accepted that our future now lies outside the EU and I can see there are pros and cons both ways. And I also tend to get very irritated by Remainers continually trying to make out that Brexit has been an utter disaster when it seems obvious to me that it hasn't: Like any big change, it's caused some winners and some losers but overall life is going on just as normal for the vast majority of people.

I also get the sense that the people who keep going on about Brexit are on the whole the minority of people who are very politically motivated (exactly the kind of people who inhabit this thread), but the subject now carries next to no interest to people who aren't into politics.

 

[WesternLancer]

Being in an opinion bubble is probably true of all us us to some extent. But I for one match @Enthusiast's description: I was a very strong Remainer at the time of the referendum and was bitterly disappointed by the result. But since then I've come to terms with it, I've accepted that our future now lies outside the EU and I can see there are pros and cons both ways. And I also tend to get very irritated by Remainers continually trying to make out that Brexit has been an utter disaster when it seems obvious to me that it hasn't: Like any big change, it's caused some winners and some losers but overall life is going on just as normal for the vast majority of people.

I also get the sense that the people who keep going on about Brexit are on the whole the minority of people who are very politically motivated (exactly the kind of people who inhabit this thread), but the subject now carries next to no interest to people who aren't into politics.

But if it is a cause of food price inflation it is having an impact on a lot of people every day.

 

[nw1]

It's no surprise to readers, I'm sure, that I am a Tory supporter. But I accept that there will be a Labour government this time next month. It has to happen from time to time so as to educate those who have not experienced it, what it's like to live under a Labour government. This current Tory shower is an absolute shambles, deserve their backsides kicked well and truly, so let's bring on the Labour experience asap, get it over and done with and move on. But I'm not expecting the Tory rump - however large or small it is - to have any say in Mr Starmer's decisions. Why should (say) LibDem supporters expect Mr Davey to be in on the act?

Because a PR-like setup would give us a parliament which is more representative of what people voted. If it were to occur this time, we'd get more Tories probably - and, dare I say it - far more Reformers.

But I would still support it.

But unless the combination of Tory and Reform obtained more than 50% of the popular vote, anything supported by the Tories and Reform only, and opposed by everyone else (let's say withdrawal from ECHR, for the sake of argument) would not get through under a PR system. So even to those of us on the liberal/left wing, PR would arguably not be a threat even this time. On the other hand, it would be a fairer representation of what people actually believed, rather than undemocratic majority governments who steamroller things through on between 35-45% of the popular vote.

 

[WesternLancer]

£50, but that was “worth” a lot more than it is today of course. About £240 per https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator

I vaguely remember my parents filling in some form and I think getting my passport stamped before going on a French exchange for two weeks near Paris in summer 1975.

Is that sum for every trip outside the uk or was there some allowance related to duration abroad?

I don’t suppose £240 would buy you many meals out in capital cities today.

 

[nw1]

I also get the sense that the people who keep going on about Brexit are on the whole the minority of people who are very politically motivated (exactly the kind of people who inhabit this thread), but the subject now carries next to no interest to people who aren't into politics.

Those of us whose financial situation or life choices are negatively impacted by Brexit are the other group, of course. My opposition comes from a mixture of ideology and practicality.

I do also wonder whether increased difficulty travelling to the continent after ETIAS will sway people somewhat against, also, albeit not to such an extent that it would impact on an election result. People have been used to relatively "lightweight" border controls for most Western countries besides the USA for some time. I'm not sure people will relish waiting for an hour in a passport control queue everytime they go to the continent, in the same way as often happens in the USA.

 

[D6130]

Is that sum for every trip outside the uk or was there some allowance related to duration abroad?

I don’t suppose £240 would buy you many meals out in capital cities today.

ISTR that it was the maximum that you could physically take out of the country in cash or travellers cheques. (....remember them?). My wife tells me that on her first trip abroad - a school exchange visit to West Germany in 1972 - her father had to 'wire' her further money via a local bank in the town where she was staying.

 

[jfollows]

Is that sum for every trip outside the uk or was there some allowance related to duration abroad?

I think it was per year, hence the requirement for passport stamp. Widely ignored and flouted before abolition anyway.

 

[Mag_seven]

Like any big change, it's caused some winners and some losers

But we were all going to be "winners" according to Farage et al.

 

[SuspectUsual]

But we were all going to be "winners" according to Farage et al.

It turns out you need a visa for the sunlit uplands, and they're harder to get than one for a visit to Moscow in the 1970s

 

[contrex]

I suspect you're either in an opinion bubble, or those who disagree with you have decided not to engage you in that conversation any more.

The sense I get is the opposite (and I admit I may be in the same situation, so neither of us can be sure how prevalent an opinion is held) - anger and frustration that we have left, however it is tempered by a realisation that no change is going to happen in the short term so we're going to have to put up with things getting worse and worse until they can get better. Few people express any doubt that we will re-join in the future, the only discussion is really about the timescales.

What can say is that polling since mid 2021 has consistently fallen on the side of Brexit having been a mistake. As of May 2024 one poll has it at 55% wrong decision, 31% right decision and the remainder as don't know.

This is utterly my opinion too. I haven't rolled over and said '53% to 48%, that's democracy', and 'moved on' (where to?). The Clown of Clacton said, during the runup to the 2016 referendum, when the polls were showing 48% Leave 52% Remain, that such a close result of the actual vote would be 'undemocratic' and he would demand a second referendum.

 

[Yew]

I don’t suppose £240 would buy you many meals out in capital cities today.

You'd probably be better off with Euros in most of europe.

 

[dosxuk]

the subject now carries next to no interest to people who aren't into politics.

I don't think this is the case at all - people aren't talking about it all the time simply because there's nothing to talk about other than how awful the whole thing is. It's only wishful thinking from certain quarters that most people have moved on and forgotten about it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

£50, but that was “worth” a lot more than it is today of course. About £240 per https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
I vaguely remember my parents filling in some form and I think getting my passport stamped before going on a French exchange for two weeks near Paris in summer 1975.

The £50 limit was for purchases in foreign currency.
So your pre-booked travel and accommodation with UK tour operators were not restricted.
People forget that since WW2 the UK had a perennial currency problem, while attempting to protect the exchange rate (notably the £/$ rate).
The £ was devalued by Labour twice, from $4 to $2.80 under Atlee, and then to $2.40 under Wilson (with restrictive exchange rules attached).
Yes Margaret Thatcher abolished exchange controls and allowed the £ to float, but the £ is now $1.25 and has been close to parity in the fairly recent past.

Champions of the £ don't like to be reminded of the poor performance of sterling (reflective of the UK economy of course) since WW2 (or even WW1).
Nor that the Euro when launched was around 1.50 to the £ and is now about 1.15 (having also been close to parity along the way).

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Being in an opinion bubble is probably true of all us us to some extent. But I for one match @Enthusiast's description: I was a very strong Remainer at the time of the referendum and was bitterly disappointed by the result. But since then I've come to terms with it, I've accepted that our future now lies outside the EU and I can see there are pros and cons both ways. And I also tend to get very irritated by Remainers continually trying to make out that Brexit has been an utter disaster when it seems obvious to me that it hasn't: Like any big change, it's caused some winners and some losers but overall life is going on just as normal for the vast majority of people.

I also get the sense that the people who keep going on about Brexit are on the whole the minority of people who are very politically motivated (exactly the kind of people who inhabit this thread), but the subject now carries next to no interest to people who aren't into politics.

Agree with this, I too voted remain but accepted the result. I'm particularly intrigued by how the staunch remainers would have reacted to last week's EU Parliamentary elections and many countries swinging to the right if we were still in.

I suspect that the EU elections are used across the continent as a form of "safe" protest vote by much of the population, so I wouldn't necessarily expect a strong rightward shift in the individual nations. However both France and Belgium's governments have shown that making a protest vote in the Europeans can prompt a reaction domestically.

 

[317 forever]

Being in an opinion bubble is probably true of all us us to some extent. But I for one match @Enthusiast's description: I was a very strong Remainer at the time of the referendum and was bitterly disappointed by the result. But since then I've come to terms with it, I've accepted that our future now lies outside the EU and I can see there are pros and cons both ways. And I also tend to get very irritated by Remainers continually trying to make out that Brexit has been an utter disaster when it seems obvious to me that it hasn't: Like any big change, it's caused some winners and some losers but overall life is going on just as normal for the vast majority of people.

I also get the sense that the people who keep going on about Brexit are on the whole the minority of people who are very politically motivated (exactly the kind of people who inhabit this thread), but the subject now carries next to no interest to people who aren't into politics.

It's similar for me. I campaigned for Remain but, if anything, am something of a soft Stay outsider now. I would like us to go back into the EU but realise that the EU would not even start negotiations while the country is still so divided about it. I also recognise that, for all the good opt-outs we had, we were still in the EU in terms the public narrowly disagreed with, hence the vote to Leave.

As even many soft Remainers believe in staying out due to the referendum result, it is clearly too soon for most political parties to look at revisiting it. There is still plenty of scope for any UK government, most notably for now the likely incoming Labour government, to cultivate new constructive relationships with the EU from outside. (Even Rishi Sunak had already been more pragmatic towards Europe than Boris Johnson, as illustrated by the Windsor agreement).

So, within 10 years we could be on excellent terms with the EU, and trading more efficiently, without re-entering the Single Market yet alone the European Union.

 

[jon0844]

Agree with this, I too voted remain but accepted the result. I'm particularly intrigued by how the staunch remainers would have reacted to last week's EU Parliamentary elections and many countries swinging to the right if we were still in.

Given what it could mean for us in the future, I'd quite like us to have remained in so we would have a veto over potentially bad things happening, but - hey - that's just me.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Given what it could mean for us in the future, I'd quite like us to have remained in so we would have a veto over potentially bad things happening, but - hey - that's just me.

What "bad things" might happen? I realise I'm going off topic (and I will steer it back) but the EU Parliament does not have the ability to propose legislation, it just votes on the legislation put forward by the (unelected) European Commission. The "worst case scenario" as a direct result of the recent elections will likely be a rise in Euro-scepticism on the continent. The irony might be that the EU will slowly reform and maybe even put the brakes on the movement towards full federalisation... and we Brits will be stuck on the outside, rather than being one of the leading voices within.

Just as Europe seems to be swinging to the right, the UK is almost certain to elect a left-wing government... yet if you read the opinion pieces in the Grauniad you'd think there were skinheads with swastika tattoos lurking round every street corner!

 

[nw1]

It's similar for me. I campaigned for Remain but, if anything, am something of a soft Stay outsider now. I would like us to go back into the EU but realise that the EU would not even start negotiations while the country is still so divided about it. I also recognise that, for all the good opt-outs we had, we were still in the EU in terms the public narrowly disagreed with, hence the vote to Leave.

As even many soft Remainers believe in staying out due to the referendum result,

Then again, that is in the past now and shouldn't reflect what we should do in the future. What's so special about 2016? It's just a random year in the past, like 1975. Why should the 2016 referendum result be respected for all time, when the 1975 one wasn't? At the end of the day, they're both years in the past, and not necessarily relevant to now.

 

[jon0844]

Just as Europe seems to be swinging to the right, the UK is almost certain to elect a left-wing government...

In 5, 10 or 15 years it will swing back of course - as it always does.

 

[HSTEd]

But if it is a cause of food price inflation it is having an impact on a lot of people every day.

The effect of Brexit on food prices will be pretty small.
Food prices have been driven by inflationary monetary policy, demographically driven labour shortages, economic disruptions from the pandemic and various supply chain disruptions, only a small portion of which are related to Brexit.

Most of this would have happened regardless.

The underlying problems of the current malaise are the same fundamental ones that have been afflicting the UK for a very long time. Things might have appeared better in 2016, but that wasn't because the UK was in the EU, it was just because the rot had not yet become quite so obvious.

Rejoining the EU is unlikely to fix any of the UK's fundamental problems, and in some cases may make the solutions even more difficult to implement.
All major parties have manifestos that try to harken back to some imagined halcyon age, be it the national service for the Conservative Party, the EU for the Lib Dems or the magical Georgian Townhouses and Bustling High Streets of Labour.

None of them are truly willing to confront the world as it is today, probably because they believe that large parts of the electorate will not like what they see.

 

[nw1]

In 5, 10 or 15 years it will swing back of course - as it always does.

And that illustrates the problem with Brexit. Left and right come and go, Meloni and Le Pen can be booted out, but Brexit is something which is difficult to reverse.

I think it can be reversed, and hope it will be, but it's not as easy as replacing the government.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jun 2024 ==

All major parties have manifestos that try to harken back to some imagined halcyon age, be it the national service for the Conservative Party, the EU for the Lib Dems or the magical Georgian Townhouses and Bustling High Streets of Labour.
t
None of them are truly willing to confront the world as it is today, probably because they believe that large parts of the electorate will not like what they see.

On the other hand I think there's nothing wrong with attempting to reverse things to better days, rather than accepting unpleasantness.

Personally I like the idea of both the EU and "bustling high streets" (though I'm no fan of national service) and would resist any belief which suggests we cannot bring back either. It just takes political will.
I suspect most people who say "we cannot turn the clock back" have their own political or financial reasons for saying so.

 

[HSTEd]

On the other hand I think there's nothing wrong with attempting to reverse things to better days, rather than accepting unpleasantness.

The question becomes whether the person's perception of those days is truly accurate though.
Lived experience of any one individual or subgroup of individuals is not necessarily reflective of how things actually were.

Personally I like the idea of both the EU and "bustling high streets" (though I'm no fan of national service) and would resist any belief which suggests we cannot bring back either. It just takes political will.
I suspect most people who say "we cannot turn the clock back" have their own political or financial reasons for saying so.

To use an example, in person retail (the key enabler of 'bustling high streets') as it has existed up to now is fundamentally reliant on a large supply of very cheap labour.
Without a huge supply of cheap labour, which must inevitably enjoy comparatively poor standards of living, such comparatively inefficient use of labour simply cannot compete with the alternatives.

The demographic transition, which is increasingly occuring globally, means we are unlikely to have that supply of labour again.
In an economy with an ongoing, worsening, crippling shortage of labour, having millions of people sitting around in shops all day is not an efficient method of deploying them.

Which is why supermarkets (far more staff efficient than small shops) and the internet are winning, and to some extent, already have won.

 

[WesternLancer]

ISTR that it was the maximum that you could physically take out of the country in cash or travellers cheques. (....remember them?). My wife tells me that on her first trip abroad - a school exchange visit to West Germany in 1972 - her father had to 'wire' her further money via a local bank in the town where she was staying.

Thanks for adding a bit more
context.
Yes I used to use travellers cheques a lot. Certainly well into the 1990s. Eg inter railing but I didn’t have a credit card.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jun 2024 ==

The effect of Brexit on food prices will be pretty small.
Food prices have been driven by inflationary monetary policy, demographically driven labour shortages, economic disruptions from the pandemic and various supply chain disruptions, only a small portion of which are related to Brexit.

Most of this would have happened regardless.

The underlying problems of the current malaise are the same fundamental ones that have been afflicting the UK for a very long time. Things might have appeared better in 2016, but that wasn't because the UK was in the EU, it was just because the rot had not yet become quite so obvious.

Rejoining the EU is unlikely to fix any of the UK's fundamental problems, and in some cases may make the solutions even more difficult to implement.
All major parties have manifestos that try to harken back to some imagined halcyon age, be it the national service for the Conservative Party, the EU for the Lib Dems or the magical Georgian Townhouses and Bustling High Streets of Labour.

None of them are truly willing to confront the world as it is today, probably because they believe that large parts of the electorate will not like what they see.

Thanks for these observations