UK General Election 2024

[Dent]

Seriously, it's a reasonably likely outcome as the polls stand, although I assume most saying they will vote Reform will return (mostly) to the Tories, giving them 100+ seats and opposition. That aside, I expect the Libdems would be empowered if in opposition, but obviously not as much as being part of a coalition. So it's a bit of a quandry for us; do we want the kudos of being the second largest party by seats, or do we want real power by having fewer seats than the Tories but more power as part of a hung parliament?

It's enough to throw someone off their canoe.

Who is "us" in this context?

 

[Western Lord]

YouGov poll reported by Sky (https://news.sky.com/story/labour-extends-lead-over-tories-in-exclusive-poll-for-sky-news-13144620) shows Conservative vote share falling after the election was called:

• Labour 47% - 539 seats
• Conservative 20% - 30 seats
• LibDem 9% - 46 seats
• Reform 12% - 0 seats
• Green 7% - 2 seats

Seat numbers from Electoral Calculus prediction (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=20&LAB=47&LIB=9&Reform=13&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.7&SCOTLAB=37.1&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=3.5&SCOTGreen=3.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=30.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase)

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

 

[Howardh]

Who is "us" in this context?

Libdems.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2024 ==

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

Kinda what we had for five years with a Tory majority of over 80?? That's been whittled away, obviously, but still they went into power with a huge majority.

 

[Western Lord]

Libdems.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2024 ==


Kinda what we had for five years with a Tory majority of over 80?? That's been whittled away, obviously, but still they went into power with a huge majority.

Rather a large difference between a majority of 80 odd and a majority of 450 odd.

 

[birchesgreen]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

Nope, it would be great. The country's problems are so deep we need a government who don't have to fear making short term unpopular decisions because of the next election.

 

[jfollows]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

The bigger the Labour majority, the better, to ensure that the right wing Conservatives are utterly discredited. I understand what you’re saying but I disagree with you.

 

[sor]

The bigger the Labour majority, the better, to ensure that the right wing Conservatives are utterly discredited. I understand what you’re saying but I disagree with you.

better still would be a large lib dem group, enough to crown Davey as the leader of the official opposition, and able to provide sensible oversight. plus there'd be the pressure to implement electoral reform

 

[deltic]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

Dont worry Labour has always been good at disagreeing with itself. Large majorities lead to greater levels of internal rebellion as there is little risk of loosing votes. Corbyn voted against the Labour whip over 400 times.

 

[Senex]

YouGov poll reported by Sky (https://news.sky.com/story/labour-extends-lead-over-tories-in-exclusive-poll-for-sky-news-13144620) shows Conservative vote share falling after the election was called:

• Labour 47% - 539 seats
• Conservative 20% - 30 seats
• LibDem 9% - 46 seats
• Reform 12% - 0 seats
• Green 7% - 2 seats

Seat numbers from Electoral Calculus prediction (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=20&LAB=47&LIB=9&Reform=13&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.7&SCOTLAB=37.1&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=3.5&SCOTGreen=3.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=30.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase)

Such a destruction of the present Conservative party would be really good to see. However, that sort of Labour majority would kill off any hope of constitutional/electoral reform for years to come as no party in our set-up is going to look at changing FPTP when it has just delivered them power probably for several parliaments in succession.

 

[Howardh]

Such a destruction of the present Conservative party would be really good to see. However, that sort of Labour majority would kill off any hope of constitutional/electoral reform for years to come as no party in our set-up is going to look at changing FPTP when it has just delivered them power probably for several parliaments in succession.

Still think most reform voters will see that as a wasted vote and go back to the Tories; so we get a hung parliament and PR will then be on the agenda. Dunno the timescale but would it be possible to have a referendum on PR within 3 years and then the following election is done under PR?

But what I don't want is for the Libdems to get into bed with the Tories again with the promise of PR, not these Tories anyway, they (to me) are far more right than in 2010 and also far too deep into Brexit. Davey really needs to come clean, a coalition wit the Tories would be impossible.

 

[takno]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

It's worth reflecting that these numbers are very unlikely to reflect reality. YouGov are the polling equivalent of a bunch of rampant edge-lords. They always have the exciting outlier polls with the shock results that then don't come to pass.The only reason they retain any credibility is that they do a comparatively large number of polls with a large number of methodologies, so they usually end up with a poll which is uncannily accurate as well as the ones which are completely wrong.

Personally I don't think there's a massive difference between a majority of a hundred and a majority of 400 - you're completely dependent in both cases on wide-scale internal dissent to make anything happen, and dissent large enough to overturn a 100 majority very rarely happens. You'll actually get more dissent and diversity of thought in Labour's ranks with a huge majority, just because the ministerial payroll won't run so deep in the party, and the consequences of defying the whip will be much less sever.

As long as the huge majority doesn't become entrenched at the following election it's really not that bad, and I think it's unlikely to become entrenched.

 

[DarloRich]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

Nope, failing to see a problem. The "good" that a large majority for a serious party could deliver is incredible.

IF Labour win the majority will not be as suggested in that poll.

 

[Magdalia]

In 2024, Greater Toronto had just above 40 per cent of Ontario's population in Canada.

In June 2023, Greater Sydney had about 66 per cent of New South Wales' population. Greater Melbourne has about 73 per cent of Victoria, Australia's population.

But Ontario, New South Wales and Victoria are not nations.

According to the Boundary Commission list, London has 75 constituencies of 650.

The 'rest of England' must have far more MPs than Greater London-based ones. Can we assume the UK election won't just be about London, Glasgow, Cardiff or Belfast, far from it?

Around London are lots of constituencies in the South East (91 constituencies) and East of England (58 constituencies), mostly currently held be Conservatives. This is sometimes referred to as the "blue wall", especially by the Liberal Democrats, who hope to win lots of them.

It's fascinating that the Tories broke the so-called 'Red Wall' as this must have been an amazing political achievement, given Labour MPs could have regarded themselves as having 'a seat for life'.

Soon we get to find out if the "red wall" Tories have a seat for more than 5 years.

 

[BrianW]

Such a destruction of the present Conservative party would be really good to see. However, that sort of Labour majority would kill off any hope of constitutional/electoral reform for years to come as no party in our set-up is going to look at changing FPTP when it has just delivered them power probably for several parliaments in succession.

Whoever wins using FPTP will not want to change 'the system', so that will be self-perpetuating. A big majority allows 'internal dissent'; a small majority promotes instability and not being too radical to maintain the unity necessary to pass any 'vote of no confidence', which increasing allows a threat of a change of leader. FPTP was thought to enable the delivery of 'the firm hand of government'; then it delivered a coalition government that nobody vote for, but was necessary if another election was the alternative with no guarantee of a majority government. The constituency system tends to enhance the majority above that of the 'popular vote'.IIUC, US Presidents often fail to 'win' the popular vote. No system is perfect. During the life of the LibDem-Tory Coalition there was referendum on the Alternative Vote (not Proportional Representation)- very few folk voted at all, let alone in favour of that change. FPTP is what we have, and which (unlike Trump) political parties are onboard for and accept the result; does anyone want revolution or a one-party state- not me. We can also complain about the government, and the system that elected it!

 

[DarloRich]

Seems to have been in the penultimate carriage - wonder if there was an empty berth at short notice or if they put another carriage on for him and accompanying people?

I "met" William Hague when foreign secretary using a GC train from Kings Cross to his constituency in Northallerton. The train was swept by sniffer dogs a few minutes prior to his arrival and he travelled with 2 VERY obvious security men. He used first class and apologised to everyone on the train for the inconvenience and slight delay his arrival generated.

I saw Cameron detrain at Bedford with 1 lackey and two obvious security men ( and perhaps two other less obvious security men) Cameron had his car and supporting police vehicles ready to collect him so I expect Sunak travelled with the same arrangements to the south west.

Will he go on to next stop by train or back to the helicopter?

He wont be on the 1736 to Paddington UNLESS the chopper is in for an MOT!
( Honestly for a CAMPAIGN I don't really mind them using helicopters. They have to cover ground and cover it quickly. I DO mind when they do it for PR junkets in real life and we pay for it )

 

[nw1]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

Less a disaster for democracy than 32 of the past 45 years featuring a Tory government, despite always polling below 45%.

Essentially any majority government, other than one with the slimmest of majorities, has no effective opposition. No-one has been able to put the brakes on the Tories for the past 5 years, for example.

Of course, ditching FPTP would remove both problems.

 

[WesternLancer]

I "met" William Hague when foreign secretary using a GC train from Kings Cross to his constituency in Northallerton. The train was swept by sniffer dogs a few minutes prior to his arrival and he travelled with 2 VERY obvious security men. He used first class and apologised to everyone on the train for the inconvenience and slight delay his arrival generated.

I saw Cameron detrain at Bedford with 1 lackey and two obvious security men ( and perhaps two other less obvious security men) Cameron had his car and supporting police vehicles ready to collect him so I expect Sunak travelled with the same arrangements to the south west.


He wont be on the 1736 to Paddington UNLESS the chopper is in for an MOT!
( Honestly for a CAMPAIGN I don't really mind them using helicopters. They have to cover ground and cover it quickly. I DO mind when they do it for PR junkets in real life )

Thanks - useful insights. It's good he went by sleeper as it flags it's existence to people who have probably never heard that it exists (including in the media entourage!)

Obv they do need appropriate govt security when they hold these sorts of offices both in and out of election periods.

Mind you I was reading about 1945 election campaign and I think it said that Attlee was mostly driven about by his wife during the campaign. Different times!

 

[nw1]

Demography is hugely important in understanding UK economics and politics. The UK had a very high birth rate in the years 1955-73 (note this is much later than what happened in the USA). This generation has been able to outvote the rest throughout its life, purely because there are more of them, and they are now at or approaching retirement age.

Latest data for fertility in the UK is 1.49, well below the replacement rate.

I would argue that people born in the first half of the 70s are NOT yet approaching retirement age!

15-20 years until the current age of 68, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's raised further to 70.

 

[DarloRich]

Mind you I was reading about 1945 election campaign and I think it said that Atlee was mostly driven about by his wife during the campaign.

Apparently so! Different times.

 

[Gloster]

Mind you I was reading about 1945 election campaign and I think it said that Atlee was mostly driven about by his wife during the campaign. Different times!

Which must have been terrifying for him as she was a notoriously bad driver. Even in those more deferential times that was widely known.

And it is Attlee: two ‘t’.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing

I'd rather have no effective opposition than no effective government

 

[najaB]

Whatever your politics are, such a result would be a disaster for democracy in the UK. Turning the country into a virtual one party state with no effective opposition is not a good thing.

I agree. The last two elections in my other home have returned 100% of the seats for the government, and the result has been a Government feels no accountability to anyone. The opposition currently has one seat, but that's only because of a defection.

 

[WesternLancer]

Which must have been terrifying for him as she was a notoriously bad driver. Even in those more deferential times that was widely now.

And it is Attlee: two ‘t’.

 

[Magdalia]

15-20 years until the current age of 68, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's raised further to 70.

Not everyone has to wait until their state pension age to retire, especially those that own their own homes with the mortgage paid off, have an occupational pension, and/or have pots of tax exempt savings. People born in 1958 are reaching state pension age now, but many born after 1958 will also have retired already.

 

[YorkRailFan]

27 May 2024
The Conservative Party says MP Lucy Allan has been suspended for backing a Reform UK candidate.

Ms Allan insists that she quit the party in order to support Reform UK candidate Alan Adams in the seat she is vacating.

She publicly gave her support to Mr Adams rather than Tory Hannah Campbell in Telford, Shropshire.

A Conservative Party spokesman said she had been suspended "with immediate effect" while the prime minister said a vote for Reform would "put Keir Starmer in power".

Mr Adams would offer an alternative to "more of the same politics and more of the same politicians", Ms Allan said.

She won Telford in 2019 with a majority of 10,941 but in 2017 the Conservatives won by 720 votes - and she first won the seat in 2015 with a majority of 730.

The MP stated that she had known Mr Adams for many years and that the Royal Navy veteran "is genuinely the best person for the job".

Ms Allan said: "I want the best for Telford and I can't just let the Labour candidate have a walkover."

MP Lucy Allan suspended after endorsing Reform UK candidate

Lucy Allan says she quit the Conservatives in order to endorse Reform's Alan Adams.

www.bbc.com

Looks like Reform could gain a new member.

With Parliament being dissolved on the 30th May, Sir Bill Cash has published a letter about his retirement.
As Parliament is dissolved tomorrow and I retire after 40 years as the Conservative Member of Parliament for Stafford and then Stone, for whom I have had the privilege and honour to represent since May 1984, I send a massive thanks to all my constituents and my local Association.

I also send huge thanks to all those MPs and colleagues of whatever political Party during that time who have contributed to our debates, whether they agreed with me or not.

I also particularly thank the 17.4 million voters of our great country who voted in the historic Referendum of 2016 for Brexit and for the sovereignty for which I have campaigned since 1986.

By this, we have regained our self-government and passed the legislation to guarantee that sovereignty following the General Election in 2019.

So now, aged 84 and the oldest Member of Parliament, I leave the House of Commons with gratitude and pride in our democracy and our great country.

With fond memories,

Bill Cash

Sir Bill Cash publishes retirement letter > A Little Bit of Stone

With Parliament being dissolved on the 30th May, Sir Bill Cash has published a letter about his retirement.

alittlebitofstone.com

Fair enough, he would be 89 at the next election after this one (if one is not called sooner) and is already past retirement age.

 

[JonathanH]

I would argue that people born in the first half of the 70s are NOT yet approaching retirement age!

If they have done well for themselves, they may well be thinking of retirement.

Some of them may have got into employment before the trap door was shut on defined benefit pension schemes and can retire from those at 55. For some State Pension Age won't be relevant. For others, the pension can be rearranged to integrate with the State Pension.

 

[birchesgreen]

As an early 70s baby i am now at the stage where i am starting to think and plan for it. My mortgage has about 8 years left so thats the target date for when an early retirement becomes feasible. I just hope i last that long!

 

[nw1]

As an early 70s baby i am now at the stage where i am starting to think and plan for it. My mortgage has about 8 years left so thats the target date for when an early retirement becomes feasible. I just hope i last that long!

For me (as someone eligible to vote in 1992 but not in 1987, to give a rough idea of age) I see it as something in the far, far future. I can see myself wanting to work for as long as I am physically fit enough to do so (primarily because of bringing in an income obviously, but also keeping myself occupied) - though obviously I wouldn't want to impose that on other people who may have different ideas!

 

[jfollows]

For me (as someone first eligible to vote in 1992, to give a rough idea of age) I see it as something in the far, far future. I can see myself wanting to work for as long as I am physically fit enough to do so (primarily because of bringing in an income obviously, but also keeping myself occupied) - though obviously I wouldn't want to impose that on other people who may have different ideas!

It comes round soon enough …. I could first vote in 1979 albeit not in May 1979, retired at 56, am now 62. Still 5 years to state pension age though, but it will be my pension number 4 given the money I put aside when working.

 

[DarloRich]

Don't worry pensioners - the Tories think your vote is worth £14.60 a year. You aren't going to fall for that are you?

Triple lock plus would only save many OAPs £14.60 a year by 2028, analysis shows

Rishi Sunak outlined plans to increase the tax-free allowance for pensioners in line with the existing 'triple lock' to ensure it rises each year

inews.co.uk

Triple lock plus would only save many OAPs £14.60 a year by 2028, analysis shows