Trump vs Kim-Jong Un: War or Bluster?

[fowler9]

There's a huge psychological difference between being notionally 'in range' and having a missile fly over you. People were, quite literally, shaken out of bed by that test.

[youtube]5VmCvChcGzU[/youtube]

Yeah, he looked terrified.

 

[Harbornite]

I really don't want to see him re-enact the sex scene.

I'd pay to watch Trump and Kim re-enacting that.

 

[Jonny]

Add the missile launches to the ability to create a magnitude 6.3 shockwave, and Kim Jong-Un is becoming increasingly dangerous. The worst thing is the appeasement that previous American presidents have shown, at least Trump is standing up to Mr Kim.

(and yes, before you ask, Kim is the family name. Korean convention is to use the family name first.)

 

[najaB]

(and yes, before you ask, Kim is the family name. Korean convention is to use the family name first.)

I suspect that most of the people posting to this thread know that.

The worst thing is the appeasement that previous American presidents have shown, at least Trump is standing up to Mr Kim.

'Standing up' to him is the worst possible idea. Trump's bluff has already been called -

“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and the fury like the world has never seen.”

Well, here we are a missile launch and nuclear test later and no fire or fury to be seen. Standing up to Mr Kim handed him a huge victory.

 

[Busaholic]

'Speak softly, and carry a big stick' - President Theodore Roosevelt's basis of foreign policy over a century ago. Unfortunately Trump, being a braggart, is unable to speak softly, regardless of whether he is in possession of a big stick or not. In any case, North Korea are probably more concerned with the size and effectiveness of China's stick.

 

[Bromley boy]

I suspect that most of the people posting to this thread know that.

'Standing up' to him is the worst possible idea. Trump's bluff has already been called -

“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and the fury like the world has never seen.”

Well, here we are a missile launch and nuclear test later and no fire or fury to be seen. Standing up to Mr Kim handed him a huge victory.

There is a wider point here that standing by and basically doing nothing has got us to where we are now. These weapons weren't developed over night. It's hugely regrettable that previous US administrations (and other major global powers) didn't pay closer attention to this issue over the last two decades - perhaps things could have been prevented from developing quite as far as they have.

However we are where we are. The idea of NK having nukes that can reach the US/Europe is terrifying and Kim needs to be stopped by whatever means necessary.

I'm very glad it's not my job to decide what those means should be. Then again I'm not sure I could do a worse job than a certain Donald J Trump!

The whole thing is depressing and terrifying in equal measure!

 

[TheNewNo2]

There is a wider point here that standing by and basically doing nothing has got us to where we are now. These weapons weren't developed over night. It's hugely regrettable that previous US administrations (and other major global powers) didn't pay closer attention to this issue over the last two decades - perhaps things could have been prevented from developing quite as far as they have.

However we are where we are. The idea of NK having nukes that can reach the US/Europe is terrifying and Kim needs to be stopped by whatever means necessary.

I'm very glad it's not my job to decide what those means should be. Then again I'm not sure I could do a worse job than a certain Donald J Trump!

The whole thing is depressing and terrifying in equal measure!

Previous administrations did pay a reasonable amount of attention, but, like Afghanistan, there are no good solutions. Kim has enough conventional artillery to do immense damage to Seoul at a moment's notice, and they're sanctioned out the wazoo already there's really not anything that the west at least can do about it. A preemptive strike, or assassination, equals millions dead in Seoul, even assuming it doesn't lead to a massive war with China. And let's face it, Kim has a point about nukes - we have them, we refuse to get rid of them, that kind of power is one way to help ensure that no one will attack. It's exactly the same reason we have them.

 

[najaB]

There is a wider point here that standing by and basically doing nothing has got us to where we are now. These weapons weren't developed over night. It's hugely regrettable that previous US administrations (and other major global powers) didn't pay closer attention to this issue over the last two decades - perhaps things could have been prevented from developing quite as far as they have.

The Six Party talks appeared to be quite close to a solution, but the ball was dropped in the 2008/9 timeframe.

 

[DaleCooper]

I think bribery is the answer, offer all his ministers, generals etc. riches beyond their wildest dreams and a lifetime of unbridled luxury and hedonism for them and their families if they overthrow Kim. Appealing to peoples basest desires usually works.

 

[Bromley boy]

Kim has a point about nukes - we have them, we refuse to get rid of them, that kind of power is one way to help ensure that no one will attack. It's exactly the same reason we have them.

True, however he is also a narcissist with absolute power and questionable mental stability (which may worsen as he ages) who evidently cares more about his ego than his people.* If the chips were down he would no doubt be quite willing to preemptively use nukes in order to save face or make a point, even in the full knowledge that NK would then be wiped off the map.

*Trump is no different but the US is a mature democracy and sufficient checks and balances are (hopefully!) in place to prevent him loosing off a nuclear strike on a whim.

 

[najaB]

...even in the full knowledge that NK would then be wiped off the map.

No cartographers would be disturbed. A nuclear strike by the DPRK would be met by a handful of nuclear bunker busters on their weapons development sites and a conventional attack on the leadership.

 

[Cowley]

No cartographers would be disturbed. A nuclear strike by the DPRK would be met by a handful of nuclear bunker busters on their weapons development sites and a conventional attack on the leadership.

Definitely. I bet Trump's got a real itchy trigger finger to do it too.
"Make my day punk" is probably what he's thinking about as he's trying to get to sleep feeling agitated.

 

[fowler9]

I have read a few articles from many different ends of the political spectrum recently saying that Mr Kim (Yes, loads of people know that in certain cultures they put the family name first)is doing this because he has seen what happened when the west changed other countries regimes like Libya and Iraq. Some even went as far as to say he is completely sane because he knows exactly what he wants to hold on to and given the state his country is in he can't see a way to do it without just trying to scare the s**t out of everyone, and he is probably right. There is a difference between being a psychopath and being insane. Kim is I would say probably the former and not the later. People who are psychopaths are doing things for perfectly explainable reasons, people who are insane do them for completely irrational reasons (They think Satan wants them to do it or some such reason, I'll admit this is an oversimplification).

 

[Cowley]

I think bribery is the answer, offer all his ministers, generals etc. riches beyond their wildest dreams and a lifetime of unbridled luxury and hedonism for them and their families if they overthrow Kim. Appealing to peoples basest desires usually works.

It does for me but then I'm easily bribed.

Actually it's not a bad idea, some of those generals might have to be excused the odd crime against humanity or two but probably better that than the way things are going.

 

[najaB]

It does for me but then I'm easily bribed.

Actually it's not a bad idea, some of those generals might have to be excused the odd crime against humanity or two but probably better that than the way things are going.

Better one madman with a firm grip on power than a dozen weak ones with feeble fingers.

 

[High Dyke]

Perhaps we should send a well respected, firm but open-minded politician to quell this situation. Now where's Boris when you need him...?

 

[fowler9]

Perhaps we should send a well respected, firm but open-minded politician to quell this situation. Now where's Boris when you need him...?

Its a shame the Duke Of Edinburgh is no longer available.

 

[Butts]

It's time to do a "Jihadi John" on Jihadi Jong

 

[Cowley]

Better one madman with a firm grip on power than a dozen weak ones with feeble fingers.

I wonder about that though. The generals that are in his immediate circle must be some of the most well off people in the whole of the country which means that they quite possibly have access to information that the general populace has - including possibly the internet via computers maybe? Or perhaps satellite communications of some sort or another?
Either way they possibly have access to outside media and have some idea of the way the majority of the world view their tinpot dictator as well as having their own individual plans of how they'll save themselves if the whole thing falls apart around his ears.
They probably didn't make it that high up the food chain by being stupid.

 

[fowler9]

I wonder about that though. The generals that are in his immediate circle must be some of the most well off people in the whole of the country which means that they quite possibly have access to information that the general populace has - including possibly the internet via computers maybe? Or perhaps satellite communications of some sort or another?
Either way they possibly have access to outside media and have some idea of the way the majority of the world view their tinpot dictator as well as having their own individual plans of how they'll save themselves if the whole thing falls apart around his ears.
They probably didn't make it that high up the food chain by being stupid.

You are absolutely right, and part of the problem is the press making everyone think he is stupid or insane. He is probably very intelligent and completely sane and is also backed in to a corner. He is not insane as I said before, he likes what he has and wants to keep it and knows that if he looses power he is probably a dead man, that is not the same as being insane. The more Trump pushes him in to a corner the more likely he is to just go insane.

 

[najaB]

....as well as having their own individual plans of how they'll save themselves if the whole thing falls apart around his ears.

And therein lies the problem - self-preservation and good governance don't usually go hand in hand.

 

[fowler9]

And therein lies the problem - self-preservation and good governance don't usually go hand in hand.

Indeed, and therein lies a problem when trying to get him out of power, the country he rules borders China and Russia. Ace.

 

[Bromley boy]

Better one madman with a firm grip on power than a dozen weak ones with feeble fingers.

Normally I'd agree with you, but when said madman has his finger on a nuclear device + effective long range delivery system, it becomes a very different situation.

Plus this particular madman's firm grip is loosening as his population gradually wakes up to the fact that NK is about the worst place on earth to be a human being, rather than the paradise his propagandists describe.

There may come a point where a regime changing strike + elimination of NK's nuclear assets becomes a lower risk option than continuing to do nothing more than has always been done...

 

[najaB]

Normally I'd agree with you, but when said madman has his finger on a nuclear device + effective long range delivery system, it becomes a very different situation.

But just getting rid of Mr Kim doesn't make the nukes go away.

There may come a point where a regime changing strike + elimination of NK's nuclear assets becomes a lower risk option than continuing to do nothing more than has always been done...

The problem is that there is no non-nuclear military means to achieve the latter of those goals - and one does not simply start lobbing nukes in China's back yard.

 

[HSTEd]

The problem is technology is moving forwards rapidly.

It appears the North Koreans are already using storable hypergolic fuels for its missiles.
Which means they potentially fit on the back of a TEL.

You will never be able to get them all in time, before a few get their missiles away.

And midcourse interception is still a bit shaky to trust to protect the several million people in LA or the several hundred thousand in Honolulu.

 

[TheNewNo2]

*Trump is no different but the US is a mature democracy and sufficient checks and balances are (hopefully!) in place to prevent him loosing off a nuclear strike on a whim.

Actually there's no real checks and balances between Trump and the button except whoever is told to fire the missile.


From https://www.vox.com/2016/8/3/12367996/donald-trump-nuclear-codes:

The natural question to ask, then, is whether he could actually [use nuclear weapons]. The answer is deceptively simple: Yes, he can. No matter what.

The president has basically unconstrained authority to use nuclear weapons, a seemingly insane system that flows pretty logically from America’s strategic doctrine on nuclear weapons. The US needs a system to launch weapons fast for deterrence to work properly, which means one person needs to be able to order the use of nukes basically unencumbered. The president is the only possible choice.

 

[Bromley boy]

Actually there's no real checks and balances between Trump and the button except whoever is told to fire the missile.


From https://www.vox.com/2016/8/3/12367996/donald-trump-nuclear-codes:

Well that makes sobering reading.

I suppose if a strike was ordered that was clearly totally unreasonable, or there was a suspicion the president wasn't of sound mind when the order was given, the last hope would be that the defence secretary would indeed refuse to sanction it.

 

[Bromley boy]

But just getting rid of Mr Kim doesn't make the nukes go away.

The problem is that there is no non-nuclear military means to achieve the latter of those goals.

Not even one of the enormous thermobaric weapons the US have their arsenal? I seem to recall one, the "MOAB" (Mother of All Bombs) was used in Afghanistan recently...

 

[najaB]

Not even one of the enormous thermobaric weapons the US have their arsenal? I seem to recall one, the "MOAB" (Mother of All Bombs) was used in Afghanistan recently...

Very effective against surface forces, not so much against hardened targets, useless against underground hardened targets.

 

[DaleCooper]

Does Kim smoke? If so the CIA could use their stock of exploding cigars which were so successful against Castro.