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Trump vs Kim-Jong Un: War or Bluster?

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najaB

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Do they have weapons, ammunution, food, supplies and mobility - or is it just a massive collection of empty-handed, inexperienced conscripts?
Yes. One thing that tyrants like the Kims know is that you need to keep your army happier and better fed than the general populace. Or it won't be 'your' army for very long.
 

Cowley

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Kim Jong Un must look at the sticky ends that so many other tinpot dictators have met over the years and think that the only way that it won't happen to him is if he's got something that he can genuinely threaten others with.
This surely is the real reason he's been developing nuclear weapons as quickly as possible?
I don't think he has any desire to attack anyone, just a desire not to be beaten to death by his own people after another country has assisted North Korea in some kind of regime change.
Also the countries around North Korea are far more stable than the ones surrounding Iraq and Libya for example. North Korea stands out as so different now to their surrounding neighbours.
This is just my opinion obviously, but what do others think?
 

najaB

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This is just my opinion obviously, but what do others think?
Of course that's why he wants a credible nuclear weapons program - it's insurance against external regime change. He's never going to use them as a first strike weapon.
 

Cowley

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Of course that's why he wants a credible nuclear weapons program - it's insurance against external regime change. He's never going to use them as a first strike weapon.

I think I may with my tired brain have just stated the bleedin obvious. I'm off to bed.
Carry on. :lol:
 

fowler9

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Yes. One thing that tyrants like the Kims know is that you need to keep your army happier and better fed than the general populace. Or it won't be 'your' army for very long.

It is weird isn't it. He has China on one side, South Korea on the other, lots of other pretty stable countries dotted around. The most unstable opposition he has is Donald Trump, the leader of the free world, ahem. :D
 

yorkie

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He is simply not credible or believable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-40952796/what-trump-said-versus-what-i-saw

What Trump said versus what I saw

President Trump says a torch-lit rally in Charlottesville on Friday night was peaceful and insists that 'both sides' were to blame for violent clashes the following day.

The BBC's Joel Gunter was there and assesses what the president got right and wrong....
It's increasingly obvious that he makes things up as he goes along and is digging himself into bigger holes.

If a group like that came to my city, you can bet I'd be out there dealing with them. Of course the locals had the right to defend themselves against the Nazis. It is obvious he has an agenda; while not openly supporting the Nazis he clearly does sympathise with their views.
 

Cowley

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May I be the first one this morning to condemn Kim Jong Un and North Korea for their actions in exploding this latest nuclear device?
I've decided to tighten my sanctions againsts them too...
In all seriousness this looks like a very powerful device, at a 100 kilotons, ten times more powerful than the last test is what's being reported and as far as I can tell there's pretty much nothing that anyone can do about it.
 
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Railops

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May I be the first one this morning to condemn Kim Jong Un and North Korea for there actions in exploding this latest nuclear device?
I've decided to tighten my sanctions againsts them too...
In all seriousness this looks like a very powerful device, at a 100 kilotons, ten times more powerful than the last test is what's being reported and as far as I can tell there's pretty much nothing that anyone can do about it.

What sanctions have you tightened ?
 

Cowley

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What sanctions have you tightened ?

I've decided to be more passive aggressive and although I probably shouldn't send a card as Darandio said I think I'll keep the communication channels open but just not put a Ten Pound book voucher in it this year.
 

Darandio

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I've decided to be more passive aggressive and although I probably shouldn't send a card as Darandio said I think I'll keep the communication channels open but just not put a Ten Pound book voucher in it this year.

Certainly a statement of intent.
 

Railops

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I've decided to be more passive aggressive and although I probably shouldn't send a card as Darandio said I think I'll keep the communication channels open but just not put a Ten Pound book voucher in it this year.

That'll teach 'em.
 

najaB

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In all seriousness this looks like a very powerful device, at a 100 kilotons, ten times more powerful than the last test is what's being reported and as far as I can tell there's pretty much nothing that anyone can do about it.
The claim is that this is a thermonuclear device, however I'm doubtful that the DPRK is far enough along the development chain to have hydrogen bombs as small as the device pictured.

My guess is that it's likely a boosted-fission device instead - still worrying but not as much so as a full-blown thermonuclear device.
 

DaleCooper

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I've decided to be more passive aggressive and although I probably shouldn't send a card as Darandio said I think I'll keep the communication channels open but just not put a Ten Pound book voucher in it this year.

Send him a card but don't put a stamp on it then he'll have to pay the postage.
 

fowler9

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I really don't know the answer. I think it will be a while before he has a reliable ICBM and a warhead he can put on one. Unless China actually give him one I reckon it could be decades away. Didn't the ICBM that went over Japan just break up in flight? It is worrying stuff but there is time to find a solution without the US starting WW3.
 

najaB

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Didn't the ICBM that went over Japan just break up in flight?
It appears so, but that isn't necessarily cause for comfort. It's entirely possible that the point had already been made: if they can overfly then there's no doubt that Japan is in range.
It is worrying stuff but there is time to find a solution without the US starting WW3.
As I alluded to earlier in the thread, WW3 is more likely to be started by a Private on the edge of the DMZ with an itchy trigger finger than by either Trump or Kim-Jong Un.
 

fowler9

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It appears so, but that isn't necessarily cause for comfort. It's entirely possible that the point had already been made: if they can overfly then there's no doubt that Japan is in range.
As I alluded to earlier in the thread, WW3 is more likely to be started by a Private on the edge of the DMZ with an itchy trigger finger than by either Trump or Kim-Jong Un.

Japan has been in range for a while. North Korea still has a lot more to do to put a functioning nuclear warhead on a missile that can reach an intended target. As I said it is still worrying. A private with an itchy trigger finger will be heavily influenced by one of their nut job leaders.
 

HSTEd

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Just because the missile broke up before ground impact does not mean that they cannot deliver a warhead to a target - it is worth noting that the missiles were not fired on minimum energy trajectory, as to do so would rapidly carry them out of reach of North Korea's tracking stations (they not having a downrange monitoring capability as most powers do).

So the tip of the missile, if it indeed it even contained an RV, will have been subjected to forces extremly different to those experienced by a service weapon in flight.

Myself I would have lobbed the missile without an actual RV on it, no sense wasing a valuable and expensive reentry vehicle in a test that provides little data that cannot be more cheaply obtained with modelling.
Also it is important that NK announce it has a usable weapon system only after it has an arsenal already ready - otherwise it might risk precipitous american action, better that the Americans think that they are still some time away.
 
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fowler9

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I still think it is like Monty Pythons Holy Grail. "We spit in your general direction". If you have a workable arsenal why bother with willy waving that falls apart. Fire a missile at a target and make it hit the target.
 

HSTEd

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Because they have no targets to fire on?

How else do you prove your missile engine and guidance works?
 

fowler9

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Because they have no targets to fire on?

How else do you prove your missile engine and guidance works?

Stick an old hulk out in the sea and see if you can get your missile to hit anywhere near it rather than fall apart in the air. By anywhere near I would include quite a large radius.
 
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Senex

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I don't think he has any desire to attack anyone, just a desire not to be beaten to death by his own people after another country has assisted North Korea in some kind of regime change.
Doesn't he, or is he mad enough to think it might be worth a try? Is he the Hitler type of dictator rather than the Stalin type?
 

Senex

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Yes. One thing that tyrants like the Kims know is that you need to keep your army happier and better fed than the general populace. Or it won't be 'your' army for very long.
'Twas ever thus!
 

najaB

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Japan has been in range for a while.
There's a huge psychological difference between being notionally 'in range' and having a missile fly over you. People were, quite literally, shaken out of bed by that test.

[youtube]5VmCvChcGzU[/youtube]
 

Cowley

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There's a huge psychological difference between being notionally 'in range' and having a missile fly over you. People were, quite literally, shaken out of bed by that test.

[youtube]5VmCvChcGzU[/youtube]

I just watched that. Missiles and bears are what they have to worry about there he said.
The TV switching itself on was a bit strange.
 
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