Has anywhere actually come up with a decent way of managing and reacting to these kind of issues, short of having a significant surplus in establishment just in case?
London Underground at some of it's large depots - Arnos Grove, and Morden spring to mind, have separate rotas for Dead Early, Inside Early (from about 7am), Inside Lates (starts from 12pm with mostly early afternoons but with some finishes upto around 21:00 - 22:00 at the latest), Dead Lates, and Nights.
And a Mixed Rota with earliest and lates and nights.
This is only realistic at a large depot, and also as they are on a five day week there is a bigger spread of shifts as well.
It should be pointed out though, that whilst this might be a great way of doing things that worked well, Night Tube has now meant that on Fridays and Saturdays there are some night duties in rotas such as Inside Early, which hasn't gone down well obviously.