TPE - Is there a case for additional carriages?

[Purple Orange]

The new Nova fleet is a welcome addition for someone like me who needs to use TPE quite frequently. Although it is defined which routes the new stock will operate, I am intrigued to understand if additional carriages would be required in the medium term?

• The long-term view seems that TPE services will form the backbone of NPR, which has an aspiration of 200m trains capable of 125mph, which essentially means the 5-car IET units become 8-car equivalents, meaning a capacity upgrade is certainly on the cards. Therefore when would this be needed to service demand (as opposed to an official NPR launch)?

• Additionally there seems to still be 185 units operating on routes designated for the Nova fleet. Is this a long-term situation or temporary? If long-term, then surely TPE could do with additional units?

• If TPE get the Liverpool to Nottingham service, I see the benefit of operating purely 6-car 185 units on both south trans pennine routes, giving passengers a uniform offering on these routes.

• Finally are 5-cars, as they currently operate, enough?

If it was down to me, I would see an additional 2 standard class carriages across the Nova fleet, with the procurement of any additional units to replace any 185s that still need to operate on North Transpennine or WCML Scotland services.

(P.S. One kind request, where someone responds with a reason as to why something can’t happen, please can they also include a possible solution? E.g. one common theme is “Man Airport platforms are too short” and then leave it at that. Well they may be short, but they can accommodate a 200m train, or other stations that have short platforms may be named, but the question should be asked as to why TPE should be serving a small station to begin with?)

 

[Halish Railway]

All of the 802s are in service - However, whilst all of the Edinburgh to Liverpool services, not all of the Newcastle to Manchester Airport services are 802s.

The main issue is that there were only 4 locomotive hauled trains a day in service pre-COVID, that equating to 4/7 of the Scarborough to Liverpool services and none of the Middlesbrough/Redcar to Manchester Airport services, all of which were originally intended to be operated by locomotive hauled trains.

On the topic of extending trains, I believe that there is an option to extend all of the new fleet to 7 carriages.

 

[Purple Orange]

Mods - this was meant to go in speculative ideas, so if someone can kindly move it that would be appreciated.

Ta

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd say "hang on and see what the effect of COVID19 is on commuting and business travel" - we may find the 5-car trains now are enough.

 

[Purple Orange]

I'd say "hang on and see what the effect of COVID19 is on commuting and business travel" - we may find the 5-car trains now are enough.

I would expect that to be a very short term issue. If shops, pubs, bars & restaurants are busy, I see no reason as to why trains won’t be either. We still need to remember that employers wield a lot of power over the lives of employees and if they require you to be somewhere, I suspect most people will travel. People worked from home prior to Covid-19 and I expect the same will happen after, but not the majority of the working week.

As such, I believe demand for rail travel and flights will continue to increase, hence capacity needed on TPE.

 

[hexagon789]

If shops, pubs, bars & restaurants are busy, I see no reason as to why trains won’t be either.

People simply being put off using the train, I think it's quite a potential problem actually

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'd say "hang on and see what the effect of COVID19 is on commuting and business travel" - we may find the 5-car trains now are enough.

COVID will be a short-term breather for most TOCs and manufacturers but we do need all services to be 5 or 6-car as some will still prefer quieter trains as they'll want to try to socially distance even post-COVID-19.

 

[Fokx]

I’d argue that potentially on the WCML Anglo-Scottish routes from Manchester, which are the busiest, it would be worth an extra carriage of standard class in the near future, but on all of the other routes current capacity is sufficient

 

[Mills444]

People simply being put off using the train, I think it's quite a potential problem actually

Surely that would affect the hospitality industry more than trains though.

 

[D365]

COVID will be a short-term breather for most TOCs and manufacturers but we do need all services to be 5 or 6-car as some will still prefer quieter trains as they'll want to try to socially distance even post-COVID-19.

Exactly; even without distancing, there's no way to guarantee that normal traffic levels won't return.

 

[hexagon789]

Surely that would affect the hospitality industry more than trains though.

I think both are affected, tbh but certainly it's going to be some time before leisure travel returns to normal levels

 

[Purple Orange]

I think both are affected, tbh but certainly it's going to be some time before leisure travel returns to normal levels

I wonder then, what proportion of passengers constitute leisure travellers?

I’d argue that potentially on the WCML Anglo-Scottish routes from Manchester, which are the busiest, it would be worth an extra carriage of standard class in the near future, but on all of the other routes current capacity is sufficient

Do you not think that is also an issue on the Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, York axis too?

 

[hexagon789]

I wonder then, what proportion of passengers constitute leisure travellers?

Well off-peak I'm given to understand trains are pretty much dead, and outside of London not much busier in the peaks

 

[markymark2000]

To be fair, a lot of TPE services increased capacity just with the new trains. I think it's a bit too early to be looking at more carriages when the new trains were only just doing full services (of course pre Covid).

I would argue if TPE are going to get more capacity, it should be in the form of smaller trains coupled so partition working can happen thus serving more destinations. I don't think the current services have enough demand for more and more carriages. It will become a point where you have long trains running almost empty for most of the day (Thameslink for example, Off peak you could run Thameslink on a 6 car train and still have a few seats. The 12 however is needed for peak).

 

[Purple Orange]

Well off-peak I'm given to understand trains are pretty much dead, and outside of London not much busier in the peaks

You have been on a TPE train right?

To be fair, a lot of TPE services increased capacity just with the new trains. I think it's a bit too early to be looking at more carriages when the new trains were only just doing full services (of course pre Covid).

I would argue if TPE are going to get more capacity, it should be in the form of smaller trains coupled so partition working can happen thus serving more destinations. I don't think the current services have enough demand for more and more carriages. It will become a point where you have long trains running almost empty for most of the day (Thameslink for example, Off peak you could run Thameslink on a 6 car train and still have a few seats. The 12 however is needed for peak).

This makes me ask the question, where does the case for 200m NPR trains come from? I agree that now perhaps is not the time to increase capacity, but there is the plan to do so. Therefore if NPR is a valid reason, when should that take place?

 

[hexagon789]

You have been on a TPE train right?

I'm talking about during lockdown, not outwith that. Are you saying passenger levels are already back at pre-COVID levels right now?

 

[Purple Orange]

I'm talking about during lockdown, not outwith that. Are you saying passenger levels are already back at pre-COVID levels right now?

No of course not. I think Covid-19 levels can’t be factored in to long term planning as if they are going to be at this level for the foreseeable.

 

[Fokx]

Do you not think that is also an issue on the Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, York axis too?

At this stage I don’t believe so as there’s a 15 minute frequency on the core of the network which will operate with 5 carriage Novas or 6 carriage 185’s eventually between Manchester and York.

I’ve only been on one service that has been completely full to the point where Ive had to force myself on and that was a Nova 1 from Leeds to Liverpool the week before lockdown and that was largely down to two cancellations in the peak hour. All of the other services I’ve seen or travelled on has managed to cope fairly well.

The Anglo-Scottish route is the busiest on the network and if there were additional carriages they would be best utilised as such

 

[cactustwirly]

TPE has just had new trains, which are a significant increase over the 185s.
The focus should be capacity on XC

 

[hexagon789]

No of course not. I think Covid-19 levels can’t be factored in to long term planning as if they are going to be at this level for the foreseeable.

Right I understand you now, I think I'd misunderstood what you were saying earlier a bit. I agree that they can't be taken into account for future planning as it's very much an abnormal situation that will with time resolve itself it's more how and when it does that could affect things for a bit longer but certainly not years down the line

 

[Purple Orange]

Right I understand you now, I think I'd misunderstood what you were saying earlier a bit. I agree that they can't be taken into account for future planning as it's very much an abnormal situation that will with time resolve itself it's more how and when it does that could affect things for a bit longer but certainly not years down the line

Yes I completely agree, timing of a recovery will be imperative but that is more a question of when, not if. The alternative in itself is not sustainable. We are either all driving a lot more, which is unsustainable. We could be working from home in greater numbers, which is sustainable to an extent (i.e. 100% wfh is unsustainable and it would damage the entertainment and hospitality industries, yet 0% wfh is unsustainable too).

 

[hexagon789]

Yes I completely agree, timing of a recovery will be imperative but that is more a question of when, not if. The alternative in itself is not sustainable. We are either all driving a lot more, which is unsustainable. We could be working from home in greater numbers, which is sustainable to an extent (i.e. 100% wfh is unsustainable and it would damage the entertainment and hospitality industries, yet 0% wfh is unsustainable too).

I do agree, we should be encouraging more use of trains and less of cars, so with that in mind, I think an extension of 397s to six-car and 802s to perhaps 7-car. Run as many 185s as doubles as possible; I'm not sure what to do about the 68s/Mk5a though

 

[Bevan Price]

I suspect it will be at least 1-2 years before passenger loadings will return to pre-Covid levels, but then, I think that the Manchester/Scotland services will probably need (but not get) 7 coach 397s. Also, some services over the Manchester - Leeds/York corridor would benefit from (but not get) 6 or 7 coach 802s.

 

[Neptune]

TPE has just had a large capacity increase with the new trains. Are you saying that they were already full pre-COVID because from what I saw they weren’t anywhere close to full.

 

[mwmbwls]

In these conversations we must remember to factor in a number of underlying constraints:
Extending orders for existing stock is often only viable if the production line, including the jigs and staff is still in existence.
Capacity to create small incremental carriages is constrained by presence of larger orders which tend to be more economic for manufacturers.
Production of incremental carriages often involves returning to the OEM. Bidding for large fleets often has a digital impact on the business ( If they don't get the job - redundancies follow -etc.). Bidding is therefore often competitive. This may not apply to repeat orders.
It helps if rail companies can co-ordinate rolling stock upgrades with infrastructure upgrades. If TPE are going to extend trains and introduce new services - say as part of he TPRU - now would be the time to order the stock.
It helps if the DfT don't help.

 

[37424]

Given the new fleet hadn't been fully implemented before lockdown it seems somewhat premature to be talking about additional rolling stock at this stage especially we don't know what the long term effects of the virus will be, which may well see some permanent reduction in commuting and reduction in demand for Manchester Airport for quite a while

With potentially some progress towards electrification on at least part of the north TPE route perhaps additional 802's should be looked at and another home found for some or all the loco hauled trains of which Liverpool-Nottingham seems to be a persistent rumour if TPE get it.

 

[Neptune]

TPE‘s problems go back to the original franchise in 2004. The problem is capacity and has been for a long time and it has led to them procuring a mixed fleet to meet demand.

When the original franchise was let they procured the class 185’s (51x3 car units). These units had both less seats and less luggage space than what they replaced (158’s and 175’s) but had the added advantages of more power and a better door layout enabling services to be speeded up. This led to more passengers and then a desire to operate more services. They were knocked back when they tried to order a 4th car for the 185’s (I believe a trailer car was desired as the power was already there). They then added the Manchester - Scotland services from VXC and extra North TP route services. This meant that less services could be doubled up to 6 cars. The 10x350’s arrived for the Scotland services (not all services mind) but the cast was set. Overcrowding on woefully short trains on busy trunk routes between major cities and tourist destinations in the north as Well as Scotland’s largest 2 cities.

The new TPE franchise have therefore ordered 44 new 5 car trains for the core routes with doubled up 185’s making up the balance. A good solution which pre-COVID was starting to see trains better cope with passenger numbers. I personally think ordering 3 separate fleets rather than 1 or 2 was a mistake (I know capacity for building 802’s was limited at the time).

Should they wish to expand their fleets up to 7 cars it would require 38 x 802 vehicles, 24 x 397 vehicles and 26 x mk 5A coaches. Highly unlikely and highly expensive when you consider it’s 3 very small orders.

Also as we don’t know what the future brings it would at this present time be a big risk to order more coaches.

 

[tetudo boy]

Has anyone considered thinking of a Nova 4 train type? It could have the ⅓-⅔ Door configuration, similar to the Class 185. They could run on services to Hull, Redcar/Middlesbrough and Cleethorpes for extra capacity as well as the Manchester to Huddersfield and the Huddersfield to Leeds services too.

 

[37057]

Has anyone considered thinking of a Nova 4 train type? It could have the ⅓-⅔ Door configuration, similar to the Class 185. They could run on services to Hull, Redcar/Middlesbrough and Cleethorpes for extra capacity as well as the Manchester to Huddersfield and the Huddersfield to Leeds services too.

I think they call them '185s'

 

[tetudo boy]

I think they call them '185s'

Not unless you count the existing fleet! As you may know, when the 15 sets go off-lease, electrification of the Huddersfield line is complete and when some of the class 185 set's go to the Liverpool to Nottingham service, I think that TPE should have some new Bi-mode trains with more capacity than the Class 185. Maybe some CAF Civity's?