Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[Bletchleyite]

Weird possibility, but perhaps Vance is letting Trump get deeper into this kind of weird & wacky territory before he takes over? That way when he does take the helm, anything he does will seem sane in comparison?

I don't think Vance is mentally incompetent. I don't think I'm going to like his policies as they are likely to be very right wing and that isn't my politics, but Trump isn't acting rationally now, even as a right winger.

I do see your point though.

 

[perstreperous]

Weird possibility, but perhaps Vance is letting Trump get deeper into this kind of weird & wacky territory before he takes over? That way when he does take the helm, anything he does will seem sane in comparison?

His policies may well be bad, but Vance is half the age of Trump and not falling apart.

Really, things are degenerating so fast "the nine" (Vance and eight or more of the 15 cabinet members) probably cannot afford to wait much longer.

I got 8:1 for Vance becoming President within 12 months (I weakened from 6 months), which struck me as being surprisingly good odds.

 

[brad465]

I think there's a reasonable chance he won't live to the end of his term. He is obviously in extremely poor physical and mental health. I'd give him months - the question is how much damage he can do in months if nobody is willing to accept he's senile, Vance in particular as he could activate the 25th Amendment. Does he himself not want power, perhaps, as Trump has made such a mess it'll certainly reflect on him when he can't fix it all quickly?

Weird possibility, but perhaps Vance is letting Trump get deeper into this kind of weird & wacky territory before he takes over? That way when he does take the helm, anything he does will seem sane in comparison?

Something @ainsworth74 pointed out before - Vance might rather wait till January 2027 before assuming the top job, as then he will be eligible for another two full terms plus the remainder of this one, whereas if he takes it up before then, all he can do is go for one more term on top of the remainder of this term.

If however Trump's health is rapidly declining, I don't think he will be able to hold off.

 

[Bantamzen]

His policies may well be bad, but Vance is half the age of Trump and not falling apart.

Really, things are degenerating so fast "the nine" (Vance and eight or more of the 15 cabinet members) probably cannot afford to wait much longer.

I got 8:1 for Vance becoming President within 12 months (I weakened from 6 months), which struck me as being surprisingly good odds.

Hmmm 8:1, might have a flutter myself.....

 

[gg1]

Weird possibility, but perhaps Vance is letting Trump get deeper into this kind of weird & wacky territory before he takes over? That way when he does take the helm, anything he does will seem sane in comparison?

I think it's more the case that Vance is holding on because he doesn't want to lose a potential presidential term. If Vance took over now, he would only be able to serve the remainder of Trump's term plus stand once more. If he waits until at least 20th January 2027 (ie, into the second half of Trump's term), he would be able to serve the remainder of that term and stand for two more.

I really don't see Trump still being in office by summer 2027, in order of likelihood I think one of the following will happen:
1 - he gets 25thed at somepoint in early 2027
2 - he dies in office
3 - Vance decides Trump is that much of a danger he decides to sacrifice a term and activate the 25th amendment this year.

 

[perstreperous]

Hmmm 8:1, might have a flutter myself.....

I suspect that might have come in quite a bit since I read the news at 0500 and thought "uh oh" ...

 

[najaB]

Have they? To be fair I think arguing against us ceding Chagos to Mauritius is about the most sensible thing he's ever said! I have no particular issue with the idea of backing out of former empire countries if that's what their inhabitants want, but it should be ceded to them (the Chagossians) from whom we stole it, not some random third country (one aligned with our enemies, indeed) with an alleged claim over it that has no more value than our own.

We acquired the Isle de France territory in an 1810 treaty with France. At the time, that terrirtory included both Mauritius and the Chagos Islands.

As such our agreement is basically "putting things back how we found them" - it's then up to the inhabitants of the Chagos to decide if they want to continue being part of Mauritius or seek independence.

I don't think Vance is mentally incompetent. I don't think I'm going to like his policies as they are likely to be very right wing and that isn't my politics, but Trump isn't acting rationally now, even as a right winger.

Thing is, given that Vance was previously a staunch critic of DJT, it is very difficult to say exactly what it is he stands for or believes in?

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Thing is, given that Vance was previously a staunch critic of DJT, it is very difficult to say exactly what it is he stands for or believes in?

I think JD Vance believes in JD Vance and will adjust to whatever position he thinks will help JD Vance.

 

[dorsetdesiro]

I think it's more the case that Vance is holding on because he doesn't want to lose a potential presidential term. If Vance took over now, he would only be able to serve the remainder of Trump's term plus stand once more. If he waits until at least 20th January 2027 (ie, into the second half of Trump's term), he would be able to serve the remainder of that term and stand for two more.

I really don't see Trump still being in office by summer 2027, in order of likelihood I think one of the following will happen:
1 - he gets 25thed at somepoint in early 2027
2 - he dies in office
3 - Vance decides Trump is that much of a danger he decides to sacrifice a term and activate the 25th amendment this year.

Or the majority of the Republican party finally come to their senses having had enough, uniting to force him out?

The top brass in the US military can't be happy about invading Greenland, going by the generals' reactions when they were forced to drop things and attend in person at the Pentagon to watch Trump's rambling speech when this could have been done remotely by video conferencing. They could challenge him and say we're not doing this?

 

[adc82140]

The military challenging the decisions of their Commander in Chief is likely to lead the the dismissal of whichever generals are disagreeing, and putting in place a general who agrees. If no general will agree, then you have a coup d'etat as you have lost control of the military.

 

[najaB]

The military challenging the decisions of their Commander in Chief is likely to lead the the dismissal of whichever generals are disagreeing, and putting in place a general who agrees. If no general will agree, then you have a coup d'etat as you have lost control of the military.

What is more likely to happen is malicious compliance - where they will comply with the letter of the order but not its spirit.

For example, if they are instructed to "invade Greenland" they send three dogsleds since the Commander-in-Chief is on record multiple times as saying that Greenland is defended by two dogsleds.

 

[Harpo]

I think JD Vance believes in JD Vance and will adjust to whatever position he thinks will help JD Vance.

Politician.

 

[simonw]

I think there's a reasonable chance he won't live to the end of his term. He is obviously in extremely poor physical and mental health. I'd give him months - the question is how much damage he can do in months if nobody is willing to accept he's senile, Vance in particular as he could activate the 25th Amendment. Does he himself not want power, perhaps, as Trump has made such a mess it'll certainly reflect on him when he can't fix it all quickly?

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I don't disagree with that. As I said I think he's severely mentally ill (e.g. dementia) - he probably actually has the mental capacity of the toddler now. He was never a nice person (watch that film about him to get an idea) but he's now not just that but also not mentally competent or rational.

I imagine Vance is waiting on the clock ticking down. If he assumed power two years after Trumps inauguration, he could theoretically be president for 10 years. Prior to that he's only be able to be elected President once.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Weird possibility, but perhaps Vance is letting Trump get deeper into this kind of weird & wacky territory before he takes over? That way when he does take the helm, anything he does will seem sane in comparison?

In addition to the two full terms theory that others have mentioned, I think there's also a chance that Vance is waiting until its clear beyond any doubt whatsoever that Trump isn't fit for office, ie in the eyes of Trump's handlers and the power behind the throne. It doesn't matter if we think he's behaving like a lunatic; its when they think he's behaving like a lunatic that we might see some action

 

[najaB]

In addition to the two full terms theory that others have mentioned, I think there's also a chance that Vance is waiting until its clear beyond any doubt whatsoever that Trump isn't fit for office, ie in the eyes of Trump's handlers and the power behind the throne. It doesn't matter if we think he's behaving like a lunatic; its when they think he's behaving like a lunatic that we might see some action

In the same vein, the more of the upcoming chaos that they can blame on DJT the better it is for them going forward. And we already know that's their playbook - even DJT himself said "If it's good: it's me, if it's bad: then it's Biden" (or words to that effect).

 

[brad465]

If Vance couldn't wait till January 2027 for whatever reason, a good time for him to assume the Presidency is around September: this would allow him to get a polling bounce ahead of the midterms, while not having any proper record or serious scrutiny to worry about. Any earlier than this risks any momentum dissipating too early, something that happened to Harris when she took over from Biden; any later and the GOP look in chaos right before polling day. December would be the worst of both worlds: midterms already been (if they're allowed) and Vance can only go for one more term.

 

[edwin_m]

In addition to the two full terms theory that others have mentioned, I think there's also a chance that Vance is waiting until its clear beyond any doubt whatsoever that Trump isn't fit for office, ie in the eyes of Trump's handlers and the power behind the throne. It doesn't matter if we think he's behaving like a lunatic; its when they think he's behaving like a lunatic that we might see some action

A decreasing but still significant proportion of the American population still thinks Trump can do no wrong, and many of these will be suspicious of Vance because (a) he isn't Trump and for some of the relatively brainer ones (b) he's said bad things about Trump in the past. Invoking the 25th adds (c) Vance would be the person seen to wield the dagger*. So there is a significant risk of some of these people turning against Vance.

*Metaphorical ... I think.

 

[dorsetdesiro]

I'm surprised the Great Emperor hasn't begun pushing one of his sons to take over from him, he may still do this as he so far hasn't talked up Rubio or Vance in succeeding him

 

[najaB]

I'm surprised the Great Emperor hasn't begun pushing one of his sons to take over from him, he may still do this as he so far hasn't talked up Rubio or Vance in succeeding him

I think Ivanka would have a leg up over Don Jr in that race.

 

[adc82140]

There have been rumours thar Barron Trump is the preferred heir, but given recent form he's about 100 years too young to hold senior office in the US.

 

[najaB]

There have been rumours thar Barron Trump is the preferred heir, but given recent form he's about 100 years too young to hold senior office in the US.

Legally he's 15 years too young to be elected president.

 

[bleeder4]

In addition to the two full terms theory that others have mentioned, I think there's also a chance that Vance is waiting until its clear beyond any doubt whatsoever that Trump isn't fit for office, ie in the eyes of Trump's handlers and the power behind the throne. It doesn't matter if we think he's behaving like a lunatic; its when they think he's behaving like a lunatic that we might see some action

"The power behind the throne". And who exactly is that? The Illuminati? The Freemasons? Someone has been reading a few too many Dan Brown books I think! Trump is no more than an attention-seeking egotist, saying anything he knows is provocative in order to keep his name in all the headlines every day. He's an admirer of Nixon's "Madman" style of foreign relations.

 

[Krokodil]

"The power behind the throne". And who exactly is that?

Peter Theil?

The Heritage Foundation?

Vladimir Putin?

 

[Killingworth]

Peter Theil?

The Heritage Foundation?

Vladimir Putin?

The latter! It's all in his game plan to split the west - although currently it's come so suddenly he's still puzzling out how to play his luck.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Trump is no more than an attention-seeking egotist, saying anything he knows is provocative in order to keep his name in all the headlines every day.

The likes of Peter Thiel haven’t donated tens of millions of dollars to the Trump campaign for nothing.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Jan 2026 ==

The latter! It's all in his game plan to split the west - although currently it's come so suddenly he's still puzzling out how to play his luck.

Nah, the people funding Trump are the arch-libertarians who just want to break everything and profit from the chaos.

Putin and Xi are just standing on the sidelines peeing their pants with laughter, scarcely able to believe their luck.

 

[SHD]

And now, Gavin Newsom (CA governor, Democrat) lashes out at European leaders for being meek and subservient to Trump:

Gavin Newsom attacks Europe’s ‘complicity’ over Trump Greenland demands

California governor says world leaders are ‘played’ by the US president and urges them to stop rolling over

www.theguardian.com

Newsom, a frontrunner among Democratic candidates for president in 2028, told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday that Europeans were being “played” by Trump and that their efforts to negotiate with him were “not diplomacy, it’s stupidity”.

“It’s time to buck up, it’s time to get serious and stop being complicit,” he told reporters. “I can’t take this complicity. People rolling over. I should have brought kneepads for all the world leaders … this is pathetic.”

While he is not wrong in his assessment, the timing and the tone are not particularly befitting. Were he a persecuted political opponent, his words would be acceptable, but he is the governor of the most prosperous state in the US. Let him pick the broom and clean the room first.

 

[sor]

And now, Gavin Newsom (CA governor, Democrat) lashes out at European leaders for being meek and subservient to Trump:

Gavin Newsom attacks Europe’s ‘complicity’ over Trump Greenland demands

California governor says world leaders are ‘played’ by the US president and urges them to stop rolling over

www.theguardian.com

While he is not wrong in his assessment, the timing and the tone are not particularly befitting. Were he a persecuted political opponent, his words would be acceptable, but he is the governor of the most prosperous state in the US. Let him pick the broom and clean the room first.

I don't think Newsom's one to talk on this. He hosts a podcast (why? surely he has a busy schedule as a state governor) and has chosen to platform MAGA and MAGA-adjacent people, most recently Ben Shapiro (the guy who got flattened by Andrew Neil several years ago back when he had a BBC show)

 

[nw1]

Let's not attack Newsom too much, it's people like him who can save the USA from itself.

Hardly surprising he has strong words on the matter, given that his country is being brought down by its leadership.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Anyone listening to the latest press conference? He's just rambling, barely coherently. Clearly is mentally ill.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Anyone listening to the latest press conference? He's just rambling, barely coherently. Clearly is mentally ill.

It makes Boris Johnson losing his place on the teleprompter and starting riffing about Peppa Pig World sound like a great orator