The US mid term elections 2022.

[Cowley]

It’s quite interesting seeing how this is playing out. A lot of people were predicting a fairly big swing towards the Republicans but it doesn’t quite seem to have happened.

A bit of analysis from Anthony Zurcher on the BBC Live feed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-63157389

This has been a strange kind of midterm election. Democrats are claiming victory even though they appear poised to lose control of the House of Representatives. Republicans are engaging in the kind of circular firing squads usually reserved for the defeated party.

It’s all about expectations. Republicans - looking at midterm history, Joe Biden’s negative approval ratings and a US economy that was struggling - expected to ride a wave to sweeping congressional victories.

Democrats, after watching their last two presidents get drubbed in their first midterm elections, were assuming the worst.

Instead, it’s a decidedly mixed bag. Republicans have to be thrilled with their party’s performance in Florida, where Ron DeSantis won re-election and they picked up three House seats. And while they didn’t pull off an upset in New York’s governor race, they are looking good in several House races in that traditional left-leaning state.

 

[Acfb]

Yes I was dubious of that.

Overall I can still see a 51D-49R Senate although Nevada is extremely close and there will be a runoff in Georgia.

The scary thing is how well De Santis did in the Florida Governor race and that he is the only realistic Republican alternative to Trump in 2024.

 

[Gloster]

I foresee a lot of challenges by the MAGA Republicans to any close result that they lost enmiring the whole system for months, if not years. The question is whether they will concentrate on a few key challenges or just spew them out against every defeat. I suspect the latter, as too many of the MAGAs just do what they want or what God told them to do, which just happens to be the same thing.

I wonder if those hitherto moderate Republicans saw that this might be their last chance to prevent their party and country falling into the hands of the extremists, and either withheld their vote or voted Democrat. I fear that it will only be a few years respite.

 

[Lost property]

Does this mean the "grand announcement " as implied / inferred for the 15th Nov will now be "paused " as they say.

 

[Purple Train]

I must say I did laugh at this quote (presumably from Mr Donald J. Trump) about his endorsed candidates, in the run-up to the election (I apologise for the punctuation error; it's the BBC's fault, not mine!) - simple-mindedness at its starkest.

In a TV interview with NewsNation, he said: "Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit, And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all."

(Do I need to include a link to the article in question?)
His childish threats against DeSantis have been dreadfully amusing as well.

At any rate, I'm glad that the swing to the Republicans is smaller than expected, whoever wins control of the House, whoever wins control of the Senate. Maybe it will keep Trump and his disciples quiet for a while.

 

[MikeWM]

Certainly some interesting results here. The Republicans will probably take the House, but by a significantly slimmer margin than predicted.

As for the Senate, the Republicans need 4 out of the 5 left to declare to get 51. They'll get Alaska, Wisconsin, and Nevada is close but they appear to have the edge. That leaves them needing either Arizona, which is hard to call given all the problems they had yesterday but looks a probable Dem win, and the runoff in Georgia next month. Hmm, just like 2 years ago if that is what determines control...

On the face of it, it looks like a very good night for DeSantis and a rather less good night for Trump, which may make things rather interesting over the next few months. Whatever you think of DeSantis, it does show that having convictions *and sticking to them* is still a recipe for electoral success - and he made far better calls on covid than most other leaders in the western world. (It is similarly worth noting how well Governor Noem in South Dakota - the only state never to put in place any legal covid restrictions whatever - did last night too, just like DeSantis turning a fairly slim win 4 years ago into a big win this time around).

 

[birchesgreen]

Some of the most rabid MAGA headbangers didn't do very well. What a shame.

 

[Cloud Strife]

On the face of it, it looks like a very good night for DeSantis and a rather less good night for Trump, which may make things rather interesting over the next few months.

There is a very real point that some Democrats in Florida might have got behind DeSantis precisely because of Trump.

In Georgia, it's going to come down to the Atlanta suburbs again. The Libertarian candidate got most of his support there, and they won't transfer easily to Warner.

Does this mean the "grand announcement " as implied / inferred for the 15th Nov will now be "paused " as they say.

Almost certainly. He was relying on a big victory for him to cruise to power, but that's not going to happen. If anything, this night belongs to DeSantis: he's won big despite Trump's threats, and he's clearly got a strong amount of support in Florida.

 

[Busaholic]

The scary thing is how well De Santis did in the Florida Governor race and that he is the only realistic Republican alternative to Trump in 2024.

Between the devil and the deep red sea, then, to amend a famous saying, but I have absolutely no doubt as to which of those two is the devil incarnate. De Santis, luckily, doesn't appear to have the capability to whip up the magamob in the same way, and all Trump's attention would be diverted to getting at and to him in the interim. It could be Trump gets to stand as an 'independent' ( )and splits the vote on the right, letting the Democrats come through for a comparatively easy win. I can dream!

 

[brad465]

One of the interesting House seats is that of Colorado Republican Lauren Boebert, where she is currently behind in the count. It's possible she could still be re-elected, but hardly anyone expected a close result.

 

[Tetchytyke]

could be Trump gets to stand as an 'independent' ( )and splits the vote on the right, letting the Democrats come through for a comparatively easy win. I can dream!

If Trump and deSantis both stand, it'll be a dirty dirty fight and all the Dems need to do is let them crack on.

 

[birchesgreen]

If Trump and deSantis both stand, it'll be a dirty dirty fight and all the Dems need to do is let them crack on.

And buy popcorn

 

[simonw]

There is a very real point that some Democrats in Florida might have got behind DeSantis precisely because of Trump.

In Georgia, it's going to come down to the Atlanta suburbs again. The Libertarian candidate got most of his support there, and they won't transfer easily to Warner.



Almost certainly. He was relying on a big victory for him to cruise to power, but that's not going to happen. If anything, this night belongs to DeSantis: he's won big despite Trump's threats, and he's clearly got a strong amount of support in Florida.

I've read elsewhere that there has been a lot of population movement into Florida in the past few years which is thought to have moved the state to the right. His strong win being driven by this, rather than his strength as a candidate

 

[MikeWM]

I've read elsewhere that there has been a lot of population movement into Florida in the past few years which is thought to have moved the state to the right. His strong win being driven by this, rather than his strength as a candidate

There's an element of that, but the change from 2018 isn't sufficient for that to be the whole explanation (he's gone from barely winning in 2018 to about 1.5 million votes ahead yesterday, and while there has been a lot of migration to Florida, there hasn't been quite that much).

I don't blame people for moving to Florida from places like New York or California, given the respective covid policies of those states. (Though Florida is far too warm and far too humid for someone like me to seriously ever consider living there!)

And it isn't just covid - Florida is running a huge budget surplus and has a much healthier economy than most of the other states by pretty much any measure. It also responded extremely well to the devastation caused by Hurricane Ian.

He may be a somewhat divisive figure, but it seems hard to argue against the position that DeSantis is actually doing a rather good job running Florida.

 

[Busaholic]

I've read elsewhere that there has been a lot of population movement into Florida in the past few years which is thought to have moved the state to the right. His strong win being driven by this, rather than his strength as a candidate

I've been doing far more reading/listening/viewing on these elections over the past few weeks than is probably good for me, or my blood pressure. I watch both left and right leaning TV channels, as well as more nominally unbiased ones, and listen to National Public Radio. I can therefore state with some certainty that in Florida (and Nevada) it is generally recognised that what everyone there calls the 'Latino vote', which always used to favour the Democrats, is increasingly going over to the Republicans, which is why such huge amounts of advertising spend went into tailored messages e.g. in Spanish by the 'red' party. The reasoning behind this is that 'established' Latino families emanating from Cuba and Mexico see themselves as totally different from 'the illegals' they portray as pouring in. In a way, it mirrors the attitude of Priti Patel, as the daughter of East African immigrants who were resettled here quite legally, fulminating against, and showing no empathy towards, those arriving here by boat from Syria etc.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I've read elsewhere that there has been a lot of population movement into Florida in the past few years which is thought to have moved the state to the right. His strong win being driven by this, rather than his strength as a candidate

This is true as well. Florida has no state income tax, which makes a huge difference.

Florida is running a huge budget surplus and has a much healthier economy than most of the other states by pretty much any measure.

California has nearly 5x the surplus of Florida despite having only 2x the population. Generally speaking, budget surpluses are a big thing right now in the US - New York City alone will have a surplus of somewhere around $2bn. Even Mississippi is running a surplus right now!

Florida is doing well for a Republican state (they tend to be 'welfare queens' to use US terminology), but it's worth pointing out that these budget surpluses are mostly the result of federal aid, helped by a very strong dollar. Take away the federal funds, and the picture is very different. Florida is also running their surplus by not increasing funds in line with inflation, particularly in relation to public services.

However, from a Trump point of view, he should be deeply afraid of DeSantis. He's Trump without the baggage, but I dare say he'll make mincemeat out of Trump in any primary race.

I can therefore state with some certainty that in Florida (and Nevada) it is generally recognised that what everyone there calls the 'Latino vote', which always used to favour the Democrats, is increasingly going over to the Republicans, which is why such huge amounts of advertising spend went into tailored messages e.g. in Spanish by the 'red' party. The reasoning behind this is that 'established' Latino families emanating from Cuba and Mexico see themselves as totally different from 'the illegals' they portray as pouring in.

Yes, it is incredibly fascinating to watch. The assumption was that the Latino vote would break the Republicans, but instead, we're seeing Latinos replace the older Republican voters.

A politician friend in the US speaks quite good Spanish, and she says that at the doors, they're getting a lot of questions about border security. She says that the racism from Mexican voters towards central Americans is really quite astounding, and isn't appreciated enough by the Democrats.

 

[Busaholic]

A politician friend in the US speaks quite good Spanish, and she says that at the doors, they're getting a lot of questions about border security. She says that the racism from Mexican voters towards central Americans is really quite astounding, and isn't appreciated enough by the Democrats.

White liberals (and I count myself as one) can be incredibly patronising (and wrong) about racism only being a product that we can invest in, or choose not to!

 

[MikeWM]

California has nearly 5x the surplus of Florida despite having only 2x the population. Generally speaking, budget surpluses are a big thing right now in the US - New York City alone will have a surplus of somewhere around $2bn. Even Mississippi is running a surplus right now!

Florida is doing well for a Republican state (they tend to be 'welfare queens' to use US terminology), but it's worth pointing out that these budget surpluses are mostly the result of federal aid, helped by a very strong dollar. Take away the federal funds, and the picture is very different. Florida is also running their surplus by not increasing funds in line with inflation, particularly in relation to public services.

However, from a Trump point of view, he should be deeply afraid of DeSantis. He's Trump without the baggage, but I dare say he'll make mincemeat out of Trump in any primary race.

Yes, I was surprised to see how well most states are currently doing financially, but I suppose that is a side-effect of Washington throwing money around like there is no tomorrow (and pretending that this will somehow help with inflation). They seem to have got to the point of 'well, there is no way we can ever pay back all of this money, so we may as well spend some more, what's the difference?'

Agree about Trump, and judging by his snarky comments about DeSantis yesterday, he's clearly rattled by the prospect of a competent challenger for the 2024 race. If Trump really does declare next week, which is insanely early, it seems to me that DeSantis then has a lot of time to see how his campaign goes before needing to decide whether to go up against him or not.

 

[duncanp]

The New York Post has seen which way the wind is blowing, and is depicting Donald Trump as Trumpty Dumpty

 

[Busaholic]

The New York Post has seen which way the wind is blowing, and is depicting Donald Trump as Trumpty Dumpty

View attachment 123641

The significance of this is Rupert Murdoch's ownership of the tabloid, but even more significant is that Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, the house paper of the financial establishment, has finally turned against him, as a loser. In the meantime, Trump is now lashing out all around, including blaming his wife, apparently. Ex House speaker Paul Ryan and Newt Gingrich have also turned on him now. What sport!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Agree about Trump, and judging by his snarky comments about DeSantis yesterday, he's clearly rattled by the prospect of a competent challenger for the 2024 race. If Trump really does declare next week, which is insanely early, it seems to me that DeSantis then has a lot of time to see how his campaign goes before needing to decide whether to go up against him or not.

Yes, I think one thing is clear about DeSantis: regardless of how you feel about his politics, he's won big in Florida and the Republicans simply don't have anyone else who is a proven winner.

But at the same time: Trump might still have one ace up his sleeve: DeSantis has very little charisma. I was watching his victory speech, and he just comes across as being very very wooden. Trump, regardless of his many many faults, seems much more genuine. Maybe part of it is in the way that he'll insult opponents, maybe it's to do with his very simple way of speaking, but whatever it is: he has it and DeSantis doesn't.

In the meantime, Trump is now lashing out all around, including blaming his wife, apparently. Ex House speaker Paul Ryan and Newt Gingrich have also turned on him now. What sport!

I suspect that quite a few people were quietly hoping for exactly this result. I've just looked at the latest results, and the Republicans are only certain to pick up 215, with 218 needed for a win. If it turns out that the Republicans end up with a very narrow victory (say 220), then it's clear that Trump has failed. If, and this is still a very long shot, the Democrats retain the House, then I cannot see the Republicans letting Trump anywhere near the 2024 election.

 

[brad465]

I suspect that quite a few people were quietly hoping for exactly this result. I've just looked at the latest results, and the Republicans are only certain to pick up 215, with 218 needed for a win. If it turns out that the Republicans end up with a very narrow victory (say 220), then it's clear that Trump has failed. If, and this is still a very long shot, the Democrats retain the House, then I cannot see the Republicans letting Trump anywhere near the 2024 election.

This whole election does have a very 2017 UK General Election feel about it, where the supposed winners feel like losers, and vice-versa, while blaming the leader (perceived leader in Trump's case) for performing below expectations.

 

[Busaholic]

Trump, regardless of his many many faults, seems much more genuine.

A genuine fascist, narcissistic megalomaniac.

 

[MikeWM]

Yes, I think one thing is clear about DeSantis: regardless of how you feel about his politics, he's won big in Florida and the Republicans simply don't have anyone else who is a proven winner.

But at the same time: Trump might still have one ace up his sleeve: DeSantis has very little charisma. I was watching his victory speech, and he just comes across as being very very wooden. Trump, regardless of his many many faults, seems much more genuine. Maybe part of it is in the way that he'll insult opponents, maybe it's to do with his very simple way of speaking, but whatever it is: he has it and DeSantis doesn't.

Trump's snarky comments about DeSantis continued with quite a rant pushed out by him yesterday. But unlike most of the times Trump does this, this times it looks like serious weakness rather than strength. I don't think it helps him at all right now, when DeSantis' big swing was one of the few good things that the Republicans take away from these elections.

I'd agree that anyone is going to have trouble looking charismatic when compared to Trump - love him or hate him (or both), he is certainly a big beast! But I'm not sure it follows that DeSantis isn't himself charismatic - I've seen quite a number of clips of him over the past 18 months, and I find him fairly inspiring to listen to. It probably helps that I usually like what he's saying, especially on covid matters, but it is also clear he actually believes in the things he is saying, and that conviction comes across rather well I think.

That said, it is hard to appeal simultaneously to Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and a Republican candidate nowadays has to do all that in order to be elected President. Whether DeSantis can do that or not - in the way Trump managed to do in 2016 - remains to be seen.

 

[Busaholic]

Trump's snarky comments about DeSantis continued with quite a rant pushed out by him yesterday. But unlike most of the times Trump does this, this times it looks like serious weakness rather than strength. I don't think it helps him at all right now, when DeSantis' big swing was one of the few good things that the Republicans take away from these elections.

I'd agree that anyone is going to have trouble looking charismatic when compared to Trump - love him or hate him (or both), he is certainly a big beast! But I'm not sure it follows that DeSantis isn't himself charismatic - I've seen quite a number of clips of him over the past 18 months, and I find him fairly inspiring to listen to. It probably helps that I usually like what he's saying, especially on covid matters, but it is also clear he actually believes in the things he is saying, and that conviction comes across rather well I think.

That said, it is hard to appeal simultaneously to Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and a Republican candidate nowadays has to do all that in order to be elected President. Whether DeSantis can do that or not - in the way Trump managed to do in 2016 - remains to be seen.

Don't remember much charisma associated with George W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon, just to name a few: Joe Biden coud be said to be another. Charasmatic presidents don't necessarily make the best presidents either - we shall never know whether Kennedy would have, but at least he started brilliantly by defusing the Cuban Missile Crisis. Obama's hands were tied by the political system combined with covert racism directed against him by some Repubicans. Clinton's narcissism and laziness helped lead to the whole Balkan situation spiralling out of control, and, in a way, I part blame him for sowing the seeds which enabled the abhorrent Trump to flourish. Interesting that both men were involved with Jeffrey Epstein.

 

[MikeWM]

Don't remember much charisma associated with George W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon, just to name a few: Joe Biden coud be said to be another. Charasmatic presidents don't necessarily make the best presidents either

Bush won on the 'guy you'd like to have a beer with' angle over Gore (and Kerry) - I suppose it depends what we mean by 'charismatic'. I'd certainly say that Biden is very much not, at least in his current form - maybe 20 years ago he had some charisma.

- we shall never know whether Kennedy would have, but at least he started brilliantly by defusing the Cuban Missile Crisis.

...although he also provoked it in the first place by putting US missiles in Turkey...

Obama's hands were tied by the political system combined with covert racism directed against him by some Repubicans.

That's partly true, but in the end Obama was pretty much the US equivalent of Tony Blair - elected with much optimism for positive change, and eventually letting down pretty much all those who had high hopes for him (including me), and I think you do have to direct some proportion of that at the man himself.

Clinton's narcissism and laziness helped lead to the whole Balkan situation spiralling out of control, and, in a way, I part blame him for sowing the seeds which enabled the abhorrent Trump to flourish. Interesting that both men were involved with Jeffrey Epstein.

Clinton is an interesting one - again, a bit like Blair, he used favourable economic conditions to disguise the fact that there was a lot of serious issues that weren't being addressed.

As for Epstein, well that's probably going off-topic, but I find it interesting how few people have been investigated/charged/held accountable over what went on there. Then again, given the cover-ups over the facts about Hunter Biden before the 2020 elections, nothing is really surprising anymore.

 

[Busaholic]

Bush won on the 'guy you'd like to have a beer with' angle over Gore (and Kerry) - I suppose it depends what we mean by 'charismatic'. I'd certainly say that Biden is very much not, at least in his current form - maybe 20 years ago he had some charisma.



...although he also provoked it in the first place by putting US missiles in Turkey...



That's partly true, but in the end Obama was pretty much the US equivalent of Tony Blair - elected with much optimism for positive change, and eventually letting down pretty much all those who had high hopes for him (including me), and I think you do have to direct some proportion of that at the man himself.



Clinton is an interesting one - again, a bit like Blair, he used favourable economic conditions to disguise the fact that there was a lot of serious issues that weren't being addressed.

As for Epstein, well that's probably going off-topic, but I find it interesting how few people have been investigated/charged/held accountable over what went on there. Then again, given the cover-ups over the facts about Hunter Biden before the 2020 elections, nothing is really surprising anymore.

I don't disagree with the thrust of that. Kerry, and particularly Gore, should never have made it that far. Obama could and should have done better and 'red flagging' Assad over Syria and then reneging on it probably led to Putin's boldness there, in Iran and even Ukraine.

With Epstein, how fortunate it is for so many that he died! I'll say no more than that.

 

[Gloster]

I have just been reading through today’s reports on the US elections in the Grauniad. All I can say is thank C... that Trump is only President in his head.

 

[yorksrob]

It sounds like an impressive achievement for the Democrats.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It sounds like an impressive achievement for the Democrats.

It certainly is. It's clear that the Republicans lost it (especially with the Senate) rather than the Democrats winning, but I think there's a lot to be said about how the Republicans organised themselves for the midterms as well. Putting up MAGA candidates hasn't helped them (the MAGA queen Lauren Boebert will only just scrape into the House, and she's probably toast in 2024), and they let Trump put unelectable MAGA candidates into races where they had a realistic chance of winning.

In particular, the Senate should never have been this close. Georgia will probably be lost (again), and controlling the Senate will make it harder for the Republicans to impose their agenda.

There is also an interesting subplot that I don't think has been mentioned enough: just how much money did Trump take from the GOP? It seems that the Republican campaign this year was underfunded, and if Trump has taken a huge amount of Republican donations into his political committee, then they might have similar problems in 2024 as well.