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The US mid term elections 2022.

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brad465

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Georgia run-off retains Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock, extending the composition to 51-49:


Democrats have cemented their control of the US Senate by winning a bitterly fought seat in Georgia, according to projections.
Raphael Warnock fended off Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a race that had been left undecided after last month's midterm elections.
President Joe Biden's party now holds the upper chamber of Congress by 51-49.
The result caps a disappointing round of midterm election results for the Republicans.
The party underperformed expectations last month by winning only a slender majority in the US House of Representatives, Congress' lower chamber.
Mr Walker, an American football legend and political newcomer, joins a string of defeated candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump, who is currently seeking the Republican White House nomination again in 2024.

Georgia's contest had to be settled by a run-off vote because no candidate passed 50% of the vote in November, although Mr Warnock had led Mr Walker by 37,000 votes cast.
Mr Warnock - who became the first black senator in the Deep South state when he first won his seat in January 2021 - told his victory party at an Atlanta hotel ballroom: "It is my honour to utter the four most powerful words ever spoken in a democracy: the people have spoken!"
The 53-year-old southern Baptist preacher, whose Atlanta church was once led by civil rights leader Martin Luther King, gave a special thank you to his mother.
He said she had grown up in the 1950s "picking someone else's cotton" in Georgia. Tonight, he said, she had "helped pick her youngest son to be a United States senator".
Mr Warnock's projected win came by a narrow margin. With 99% of the estimated vote counted, he secured 50.8% to Mr Walker's 49.2%, according to Edison Research.
Mr Walker did not explicitly concede as he took to the stage to address supporters at the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta.
But he said: "There's no excuses in life, and I'm not going to make any excuses now because we put up one heck of a fight."
 
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jon0844

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Still amazed it was so close given how bad the Republican candidate was. Of course people just vote along party lines and don't care if the person that wins is a crazy fool (or perhaps a vampire or werewolf).
 

DC1989

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The Republicans previously usually win by 15+ points in Georgia don't they? So a close race says a lot really
 

brad465

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McCarthy is having trouble trying to become Speaker, having been defeated in the first two votes thanks to party rebels:


Summary​

  1. Republican Kevin McCarthy has lost two votes for Speaker of the US House of Representatives
  2. McCarthy, the leading candidate to replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi, has struggled to win the support of a small group on the right of his party
  3. The role of Speaker of the House is one of the most important jobs in US politics
  4. The Californian congressman needed a 218-vote majority, but last-minute concessions failed to convince a number of more conservative Republicans
  5. It's the first time in a century that a Speaker has not been elected in the opening round of voting
  6. President Joe Biden is facing a Republican majority in the House for the first time but Democrats will keep control of the Senate
 

MikeWM

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Looks like McCarthy is actually going backwards in votes in round 3. Not at all clear how he can turn this around.

In 1856 this process took 2 months and 133 rounds of voting! Don't think we'll quite get to that, but this is fairly unusual stuff.
 

brad465

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Looks like McCarthy is actually going backwards in votes in round 3. Not at all clear how he can turn this around.

In 1856 this process took 2 months and 133 rounds of voting! Don't think we'll quite get to that, but this is fairly unusual stuff.
Fourth round result just in, and he's lost again, this time with an abstention bringing the number of Republican reps not voting for him up to 21.


McCarthy got 201 votes, far short of majority needed​

The official vote tally has just been announced, confirming that Kevin McCarthy has, for the fourth time, failed to become the Speaker of the House.
With 433 votes counted, the official tally is as follows:
  • 201 votes for McCarthy
  • 212 votes for Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrats' nominee
  • 20 votes for Byron Donalds, the Republican challenger to McCarthy
One member, Victoria Spartz of Indiana, called out "present" - effectively abstaining from voting.
218 votes are needed to become Speaker.
 

MikeWM

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6 votes down, nothing moving. Onto tomorrow for the next round!
 

najaB

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6 votes down, nothing moving. Onto tomorrow for the next round!
The scary thing is that we don't know (and likely will never know) exactly what McCarthy is giving up in order to win over the rebels.
 

nlogax

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This neatly demonstrates how crazy and polarised the GOP and US politics in general has become. Those rebel Republicans are utterly entrenched.

It also neatly demonstrates how Trump's influence on the GOP has waned since 2020. The more he blethers support for McCarthy the weaker McCarthy seems to appear.
 

Gloster

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The rebels are not reasonable people looking to return the GOP to a more moderate path, but far right, sons and daughters of the Tea Party, types, such as Boebert, Gaetz and Gosar. They seem to be making some fairly extreme demands, although some are fairly petty or more for personal ambition, but if they win would they sit back or would they be a constant thorn in the side? Things have come to a pretty pass when Marjorie Taylor Greene is on the more rational side.
 

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National Public Radio (an organisation hated by all "true" Republicans and usually referred to by many of them as "socialist" or "liberal") has a good article on who the 21 rebels are and what they each want (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/05/1147...ampaign=news&utm_id=48036211&orgid=&utm_att1=).
Essentially less government spending and more power for them with less power for the speaker because they don't trust him otherwise.
Most were endorsed by Trump and many of them deny the result of the 2020 election.
It seems to me that the Republicans need to get over Trump, but if it's happening, it's not happening quickly.
These 21 House members didn't vote for Kevin McCarthy. Here's what they want

January 5, 2023 5:00 AM ET

In any hostage negotiation, there are demands.

Authorities aim to end them peacefully, but what happens when the captors don't want anything but to cause chaos?

Kevin McCarthy, in his long quest to become speaker, remains a handful of votes short, the GOP conference and the House itself remain paralyzed — and there's no SWAT team to swoop in and end the standoff.

The number has now grown to 21 members who declined to vote for McCarthy, as he's failed in six rounds of voting. It's the first time in 100 years that voting for a speaker has gone beyond one round, and those opposing McCarthy now hold the key.

To be elected speaker in this new Congress with just Republican votes, any Republican can only lose four votes. Because of how narrow Republicans' majority is after the midterm election results, a small cadre of intransigent members on the party's far right have a lot of leverage — and they're showing they're willing to use it.

What it boils down to for these members is three things:

  1. wanting to see less government spending,
  2. more power to them and less power for the speaker, and
  3. mistrust and personality differences
It's not clear, though, if there's anything McCarthy can do to persuade them. Some have made clear they want further concessions from him. McCarthy backed the hard-right faction's proposal for a five-vote threshold to remove the speaker, but he wouldn't accept other demands, like putting more restrictions in place from members earmarking spending on unrelated bills for their own projects, or committing to bringing a bill to the floor to impose term limits.

Meanwhile, there are a handful of others who appear to be immovable.

The core of this group are anti-establishment, ideologic skeptics of government. They want it to be smaller, do less, to spend less and are hard line on immigration. Most were endorsed by former President Donald Trump, and many are election deniers, but even Trump's influence is only going so far in this fight.

So who are they and what, if anything, do they want?

Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz.: Biggs is one of the leaders of this movement. He stepped forward to challenge McCarthy and was the first nominated by this hard-right opposition, winning votes on the first two ballots.

Rep. Dan Bishop, R-N.C.: The House Freedom Caucus member was one of seven members to sign a "Dear Colleague" letter outlining concerns, like "increasingly centralized decision-making power" that result in "massive, multi-subject bills that are unable to be amended or fully read, all driven by supposedly must-pass defense and appropriations measures" that amass large debt.

(The other six to sign the letter were: Republican Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania; Paul Gosar of Arizona, Andy Ogles of Tennessee, Chip Roy of Texas, Andrew Clyde of Georgia and Eli Crane of Arizona.)

Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo.: The controversial Colorado firebrand narrowly won reelection by only hundreds of votes. She and others want a single member to be able to bring a motion to vacate the speaker.

Josh Brecheen, R-Okla.: The rancher and construction company owner is a new member of Congress, who aligned himself with the House Freedom Caucus during his campaign.

Michael Cloud, R-Texas: Cloud cites wanting to get the country on a "path toward fiscal responsibility" and notes that he'd "worked for months in high hopes and good faith that our conference would chart a course away from the status quo."

Andrew Clyde, R-Ga.: The gun shop owner, who sent an encouraging text about Trump to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows days after Jan. 6 and previously called McCarthy "a friend," was one of the seven signers of the December "Dear Colleague" letter that outlined fiscal issues and large spending bills as a major problem.

Eli Crane, R-Ariz.: The Trump-backed freshman, who flipped a House seat in November, was also one of seven signers.

Byron Donalds, R-Fla.: Donalds' opposition was a particularly worrisome sign for McCarthy. Though he is a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus, he was willing to initially vote for McCarthy, which he did on the first two ballots. He became the unlikely landing place for the 20 votes, himself winning those opposition votes on the last few ballots. He says he switched because McCarthy "doesn't have the votes," that negotiations need to happen.

Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.: Gaetz has been a principal instigator and steadfast opponent of McCarthy in this process. "Maybe the right person for the job of speaker of the House isn't someone who has sold shares of themself for more than a decade to get it," Gaetz said Tuesday.

Bob Good, R-Va.: Good, who has been at the forefront of the opposition, seems like one of the most dug in members. Good calls McCarthy part of the "swamp cartel," claims that despite giving McCarthy a chance over the last couple of years, he hasn't done enough to stop massive spending bills and hasn't fought hard enough against the "Biden-Schumer agenda." He's also been critical of McCarthy's PAC spending money, he says, against conservatives. McCarthy's PAC said Wednesday night that it promised not to play in open primaries where there is no incumbent.

Paul Gosar, R-Ariz.: Gosar is one of the most controversial members of Congress. He's defended white nationalists and spoken to them and was censured after posting an anime video depicting the killing of Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and President Biden. He's also one of the leaders of this insurrection against McCarthy and was the first to rise to nominate an alternative. Gosar went viral Tuesday when he was spotted having a conversation with Ocasio-Cortez on the House floor about whether Democrats would help McCarthy get elected. Ocasio-Cortez said she told the faction: "Absolutely not."

Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md.: The outlier in the Maryland delegation was one of nine Republicans who signed a letterSunday saying the times called for a "radical departure from the status quo" and said "McCarthy bears squarely the burden to correct the dysfunction he now explicitly admits across that long tenure."

Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla.: One of five freshman members to vote against McCarthy, Luna was one of the nine to sign the Sunday letter that said McCarthy's negotiations have been "insufficient."

Mary Miller, R-Ill.: The second-term Illinois representative has been quiet on her vote. But former Rep. Rodney Davis — whom Miller defeated in the GOP primary — told CNN on Tuesday that "I don't think anybody from Illinois would be surprised by that vote." Like the majority of other McCarthy defectors, Miller had Trump's endorsement, denies results of the 2020 presidential election, objected to the 2020 Electoral College results and is a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

Ralph Norman, R-S.C.: While some of the 21 may be waiting to see which way the wind blows, Norman has been an early and hard "no" on McCarthy. The core of his problem with McCarthy is how to budget.

Andy Ogles, R-Tenn.: One of the five incoming freshmen opponents, Ogles so far hasn't publicly indicated why. He was also, though, one of the nine signers of the letter saying McCarthy hadn't done enough to meet conservatives' demands.

Scott Perry, R-Pa.: Perry is chairman of the GOP Freedom Caucus – of which 19 of the 21 non-McCarthy voters are members. He said, as of late November, that he was pushing McCarthy to make rules changes that gave more power to members and weaken the speakership.

Matthew Rosendale R-Mont.: He said as early as November that he wouldn't be supporting McCarthy. He's critical of McCarthy for wanting to "maintain the status quo" for not giving members more power over legislation, like allowing debate on the floor instead of through committees. A spokesperson has said Rosendale would only vote for McCarthy "under extreme circumstances."

Chip Roy, R-Texas: He's been vocal in his opposition to McCarthy for months – unless he would support rules changes that would open up floor debate and give members more say. Roy said he was upset about spending bills passing without debate, particularly an aid package to Ukraine.

Roy has spearheaded the drive against McCarthy for months, nominating Biggs for party leader over McCarthy in November. Thirty members joined him in that preliminary vote, but McCarthy still won handily. Roy said Wednesday night he thinks he can bring along 10 members if demands are met, per CNN. But that still wouldn't be enough to put McCarthy over the top.

Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas: Another of the five incoming freshmen to vote against McCarthy, even though a couple months ago, he strongly backed him. McCarthy even stumped for him in Texas, and McCarthy's PAC donated $5,000 to Self's campaign.

Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind.: Spartz, a Ukrainian-born member who has been criticized by some in her conference for her conduct on a congressional delegation to Ukraine and her criticism of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, was the only member to vote "present" on one of the votes. She said on CNN Wednesday she thinks McCarthy has worked hard but needs to listen to the opposition's concerns, "come to agreement and not waste everyone's time."
 
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brad465

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National Public Radio (an organisation hated by all "true" Republicans and usually referred to by many of them as "socialist" or "liberal") has a good article on who the 21 rebels are and what they each want (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/05/1147...ampaign=news&utm_id=48036211&orgid=&utm_att1=).
Essentially less government spending and more power for them with less power for the speaker because they don't trust him otherwise.
Most were endorsed by Trump and many of them deny the result of the 2020 election.
It seems to me that the Republicans need to get over Trump, but if it's happening, it's not happening quickly.
If they want to get over Trump the GOP should allow all the criminal investigations into him to proceed unhindered, in the hope he's found guilty in one of them and not only won't be able to run for President and divide the campaign, but from jail he won't be able to say anything publicly that could undermine the party.
 

MikeWM

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Essentially less government spending and more power for them with less power for the speaker because they don't trust him otherwise.

There are *massive* problems with the way spending bills go through congress - look at the one that emerged just before Christmas, a bill of over 4000 pages to spend over 1.7 trillion dollars, published mere hours before the houses of congress had to vote on it.

I've no idea if the ideas from these 20-ish renegades would improve that, or indeed make it worse - I've forgotten most of what I used to know about congressional procedure - but it is very clear that the current system is very broken.
 

jfollows

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McCarthy got 201 votes again in round 7, this isn’t going anywhere. The only change was that Donald Trump got 1 vote in this round. Technically the Speaker does not have to be a member of the House.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

He's in the process of losing/not winning round 8 now as well.
The commentators seem to be saying that he's either got to give away more power than he wants to, constraining how he'll be able to do the job, or give up and let someone else have the job. Just sitting on his hands doesn't appear to be working for him.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Round 1 - 203 votes
Round 8 - 201 votes
Round 9 - 201 votes
Round 10 - 200 votes
Some of the 21 opposing McCarthy are saying that before the voting started he threatened them with various bad things if they didn’t support him, like removal from committees and the like. As a result, much of their opposition now is personal - they don’t like him or trust him. So he’s going to find it hard to get them to vote for him now.

EDIT Round 11 was also 200 votes, so McCarthy isn't making any progress and presumably has to do something he really doesn't want to do if he really wants the job.
 
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brad465

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2023 has now seen more ballots than 1923, the last time more than 1 ballot was needed to elect a speaker. It still has a long way to go to reach the heights of the slavery years just before the civil war, but it's certainly looking embarrassing for McCarthy et al.
 

najaB

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Something that was raised by Lawrence O'Donnell last night on his MSNBC programme - Donald Trump now has another first to his name: he's the only person to have received just a single vote in a House Speaker vote after being nominated by Matt Gaetz. Not only that, but it happened three times in a row!
 

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I like Gerard Baker's observations on Kevin McCarthy in today's Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/republicans-are-no-longer-a-functioning-party-mdtpjccrl):
It’s also fair to note that resistance to McCarthy is understandable. He is the very model of a Washington insider, the sort of character who gives cynics a bad name. Unhindered by any visible convictions or intellectual talent, a journeyman politician who wears his beliefs lightly and his opportunism on his sleeve, he has ascended the greasy pole through a combination of bovine perseverance and unctuous ingratiation.
His general conclusion is unremarkable - that the Republicans are no longer a functioning party. This sort of shenanigans will hopefully be forgotten by the electorate in due course, but if not then it's not going to do their prospects any good. Elected to govern and then show that they're incapable of even taking the first step.
 
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nlogax

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Donald Trump now has another first to his name: he's the only person to have received just a single vote in a House Speaker vote after being nominated by Matt Gaetz.

Gaetz is a comedy GOP villain and I'm amazed that he never ended up in jail. He's promising he'll resign if the Democrats move towards voting for a moderate Republican speaker in order to end the impasse. As the old saying goes, 'don't threaten me with a good time'.
 

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Some of the rebels have voted for McCarthy in round 12, but not enough for him to win. Onto round 13!
 

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I like Gerard Baker's observations on Kevin McCarthy in today's Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/republicans-are-no-longer-a-functioning-party-mdtpjccrl):

His general conclusion is unremarkable - that the Republicans are no longer a functioning party. This sort of shenanigans will hopefully be forgotten by the electorate in due course, but if not then it's not going to do their prospects any good. Elected to govern and then show that they're incapable of even taking the first step.
Why do you hope these shenanigans are forgotten? The republican party needs to give themselves a long talking to.
 

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Why do you hope these shenanigans are forgotten? The republican party needs to give themselves a long talking to.
Oh yes, I was putting myself in their shoes temporarily, thank you for picking me up on it .... I personally think they should be cast into oblivion for a good while.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

McCarthy finally secured 216 votes in round 15, which was enough to win because he'd persuaded a number of his Republican colleagues to abstain (voting "present") rather than for a different nominee - six of them did this - which enabled him to win over the Democrat candidate Hakeem who received 212 votes (for the fifteenth time).
 
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Cloud Strife

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His general conclusion is unremarkable - that the Republicans are no longer a functioning party.

I would agree with this. They are not a well disciplined machine, and this was painfully apparent during the midterms.

Part of the problem is how US political parties are structured, because they seem completely unable to prevent people like Lauren Boebert from standing. The Republicans need to step away from Trump in order to win next time, but they seem powerless because these personalities can win in the primaries. Boebert would never have won as an independent, but the primary process allowed her to stand again, even though she came within a whisker of losing.
 

brad465

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I would agree with this. They are not a well disciplined machine, and this was painfully apparent during the midterms.

Part of the problem is how US political parties are structured, because they seem completely unable to prevent people like Lauren Boebert from standing. The Republicans need to step away from Trump in order to win next time, but they seem powerless because these personalities can win in the primaries. Boebert would never have won as an independent, but the primary process allowed her to stand again, even though she came within a whisker of losing.
It's also FPTP in the US being as much a problem in the UK. Those against PR often claim it will give extreme voices more representation, but that fails to consider that such voices have hijacked mainstream political parties and held them hostage to their agenda, where their influence is stronger than it would be under PR. This is also how in the UK the ERG took control of the Tory party, and we saw how damaging their thinking is when they had their puppet in Liz Truss. This was also on the other end of the spectrum how Momentum hijacked Labour, although Starmer seems to have booted them out now.

McCarthy might now be speaker, but the hard graft is just beginning, considering how slim the GOP majority is and how many concessions he must have made to become Speaker.
 

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Meanwhile in the Missouri the GOP has brought about a rule change banning women from bearing arms, sorry, having bare arms in the state house chamber. Nice to see they have their priorities right, or far right.

Source: The Independent via my yahoo news feed.
 

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Meanwhile in the Missouri the GOP has brought about a rule change banning women from bearing arms, sorry, having bare arms in the state house chamber. Nice to see they have their priorities right, or far right.
It's sad, but not unexpected given the GOP's recent demonstration of their desire to control women's bodies.
 

brad465

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Meanwhile in the Missouri the GOP has brought about a rule change banning women from bearing arms, sorry, having bare arms in the state house chamber. Nice to see they have their priorities right, or far right.

Source: The Independent via my yahoo news feed.
Oh so they will bring in gun controls, but only if they can do it in a way that's sexist.
 
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