The Prediction League: Euro 2012

[sonic2009]

and i was getting hopefully when it was 2 - 1, although i knew that wasn't going to stay like that (but at least i get something for the greek goal at least! edit - or not...)

They scored 2

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[atomicdanny]

They scored 2

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hence the edited part (i.e. edit - or not - which you've even quoted )

 

[bb21]

Hang on a minute. I didn't realise that the points tally was reset to zero.

Would have tried harder had I known.

 

[Ivo]

The tournament's highest-scoring game so far (in practice, this is unlikely to change) did not return a ten-pointer as one might have expected, courtesy of Greece somehow scoring twice in said game. Every player correctly predicted that the Germans would win though, so all competitors scored at least four and in most cases six points. This does have some effect on the table, as gnolife's four was eclipsed by andrew bell's six and sent the latter back to the summit again, while SS4's six means he is ahead of surprise struggler newbie babs at the other end of the table on tie-breaking rules.

There have now been five cards and seven goals in this round. Could the uncharacteristically low card count potentially ruin someone?

Hang on a minute. I didn't realise that the points tally was reset to zero.

Would have tried harder had I known.

Twit Should be trying hard anyway!

It should have been fairly obvious. Why would you get a bonus for the Quarters if you already have a lead carried over from the Group Stage?

 

[sonic2009]

Im still happy with 4th.

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[bb21]

Twit

How dare you misspell my name, sir!

I will have you know again that my name ends with an "x" for x-ray, not a "t" for a bag of tea leaves.

 

[Ivo]

How dare you misspell my name, sir!

I will have you know again that my name ends with an "x" for x-ray, not a "t" for a bag of tea leaves.

I shall remember that

 

[SS4]

Are we all predicting the semi's, the final and third place playoff? I swear I remember you saying somewhere in this thread that only the top 4 would contest the semis as a proper knockout (it's a good idea IMO although I'll be nowhere near the top 4 lol)

 

[bb21]

You will be knocked out if you are not in the top four come Sunday night.

 

[Ivo]

You are welcome to predict scores but as bb21 says they are not considered for the competition if you fail to finish in the Top Four here. In hindsight, I wish I had set a limit of Top Eight for the Quarter-Finals and played it as a Knock-Out phase as well, but ah well - never mind.

 

[newbie babs]

This is also confusing, I don't mind being bottom it has its advantages. I am not sure why its was not just predict the scores and how many red cards per game.

I think its good to have fun and predict but then when it gets complicated and there is double points and then the points go back to zero, I cant keep up with it.At least on the bottom I wont have to predict anymore.

Thanks Ivo for the fun

 

[Ivo]

A rather dire affair epitomised by the usual Spanish playacting resulted in no changes at the top end of the table, although perfect scores from atomicdanny and bb21 have brought them right into contention for the Semi-Finals. Six points separate the top seven as we head into the match that will decide the fate of the eleven contestants - who will contend the final stages? Commentary on that coming up.

Meanwhile, at the bottom end a disappointing 2-2 call from SS4 has seen him cast aside at the bottom. He will need a strong showing in tomorrow's match to avoid claiming the second of the tournament's two wooden spoons.

Today saw three cards and two goals, leaving aggregate totals of eight and nine respectively. Are we to deduce that the teams eliminated in the Group Stage were responsible for the majority of the cards in the first phase?

We now have our first Semi-Final fixture: Portugal vs Spain.

 

[gnolife]

So 5 cards and an Italy 2-0 win please

 

[SS4]

I think I'll be going to buy some pots and pans to go with the wooden spoon

 

[bb21]

I think I'll be going to buy some pots and pans to go with the wooden spoon

No need to go out and buy them. Here you are. Should be plenty.

 

[Ivo]

Analysis complete. I have assumed the score will be no greater than 3-2 or 2-3 and that a maximum of six cards are shown. Each player is represented (in no immediately obvious order, but one does exist) by the letters A through K. If you want to know which player is you, send me a PM.

Based on the assumptions above (and assuming that I have entered the manual information required correctly), and showing the English goal-count first:

• Player A has a roughly one-in-two chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals, with no obvious pattern of how (s)he would do so emerging.
• Player B will be eliminated unless the result is 0-0, in which case (s)he will qualify for the Semi-Finals.
• Player C has a roughly two-in-three chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals; however, (s)he is likely to be eliminated if the result is a draw and/or at least one team fails to score.
• Player D will be eliminated unless the result is 0-0, in which case (s)he will qualify for the Semi-Finals, or the result is 1-1 and precisely four cards are shown, in which case he will be entered into a tie-break situation.
• Player E will qualify for the Semi-Finals unless no more than three cards are shown and the score is either 0-0 or 2-1, the latter of which will be subject to a tie-break situation.
• Player F will qualify for at least a tie-break situation unless precisely four cards are shown and the score is 2-1 or five or more cards are shown and the score is either 1-2 or 2-1.
• Player G has already been eliminated.
• Player H will qualify for the Semi-Finals if precisely one goal is scored; otherwise, (s)he is eliminated.
• Player I has already been eliminated.
• Player J has a roughly one-in-two chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals, but is unlikely to if one team scores more than twice.
• Player K has a roughly one-in-three chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals, with no obvious pattern of how (s)he would do so emerging.

On this basis, the approximate order of who is likely to qualify is as follows (G and I are not shown): EFCJAKHDB

To reiterate, the above analysis is subject to the result and cards matching the criteria set out above.

 

[gnolife]

I think I might know which person I am on that list, but I'm not about to say which.

 

[Ivo]

I'll send you a PM if you want to know for certain (ideally send me if PM, rather than posting here, if you do)...

 

[SS4]

Come on you goalkeepers, papa needs a 0-0. I want to go out on a high

 

[Ivo]

England vs Italy goes to Extra-Time after a rare example of an exciting 0-0 draw. The competition will be updated after the winner is determined.

 

[gnolife]

I think its all over for me then

 

[sonic2009]

Come on awaiting the results!!

 

[Ivo]

Give me a chance!

 

[sonic2009]

This tense is unbearable.

 

[SS4]

It's like a penalty shoot out

edit: The server business is just adding to it.

 

[Ivo]

I'm working as fast as I can guys!

Assuming the server is OK, allowing for writing the prose I will probably need about 20 minutes from now.

 

[gnolife]

I'm working as fast as I can guys!

Assuming the server is OK, allowing for writing the prose I will probably need about 10-12 minutes from now.

I dont want the prose, I just want to know how badly that result ruined things for me (I'd predicted a 2-1 Italy win, I was 2 goals short of my bonus, and 4 cards short of my prediction at 90 mins - I was person E on that big load of Ivo's analysis above)

 

[sonic2009]

It's taking ages

 

[gnolife]

Yup, he's now 10 mins overdue - must be travelling with Virgin

 

[Ivo]

And so England's tournament has come to an end in the most predictable fashion - penalties.

The Prediction League will continue though, and as such we have our Semi-Finals - see Post #3 for details of these - and our Semi-Finalists. But the 0-0 result that is officially recorded for our competition has thrown many a spanner in the works, as has the very low card count (producing an overall result of only nine of each), and therefore three of the five players who looked like fighting over those four spots - gnolife, Ivo and sonic2009 - have been eliminated.

Congratulations to the other two contenders at the top of the table, andrew bell and Temple Meads, on qualifying for the Semi-Finals. More remakrably however, special congratulations to SS4 and valenta, who both scored a massive result today to leap from the bottom half of the table into the Top Four - and in the former's case, achieving the seemingly impossible and jumping from LAST to FIRST. Both did well on bonuses after some low guesses, with both scoring a perfect 11 for goals and the two scoring six and three respectively on cards (with gnolife also scoring three for cards and Ivo and newbie babs scoring one each for goals), with SS4 also being the only player to have predicted a 0-0 resulting in an incredible daily score of 27 from a possible 32.

Commiserations to the other seven players; you may still enter predictions if you wish but they will not count. But for the remaining four players, your predictions must be in by 1845 on Wednesday and remember that reminders will not be offered and late entries will not be accepted!

The Semi-Final line-up is as follows:

SS4 [1] v [4] Temple Meads
andrew bell [2] v [3] valenta

Best of luck!