The future of the Heathrow Express

[Class 317]

With a complete timetable recast removing the 4 HEX services must create the capacity to run more fast line services to Reading particularly if you made the additional services 125mph and upgraded the Newbury service 125mph. If you keep the semi fast services to Didcot you may only get 2 long distance paths each hour but that could add significant extra capacity and or journey opportunities on longer routes.

TFL have proposed making it 8tph to Heathrow using capacity created by the additional 10 units but HEX constrains capacity for this at Heathrow.

Didn't the fast line calls at Slough go with the faster semi fast service to Didcot a free years ago?

 

[JonathanH]

Didn't the fast line calls at Slough go with the faster semi fast service to Didcot a free years ago?

Yes, but the Didcot services run for nearly fifteen miles on the fast line and cross over a flat junction at slow speed.

 

[Snow1964]

Yes, but the Didcot services run for nearly fifteen miles on the fast line and cross over a flat junction at slow speed.

When trains start calling at the new Old Oak Common, not going to be that much difference in running time of IETs and 110mph EMUs, to airport junction. Perhaps 1.5-2 minutes max.

If need to do fast-slow weave 15 miles out regularly, why was the crossover not upgraded from a slow one ? Is is it planning blight as it is approximately where Heathrow Western access junction would be located.

I could easily forsee the Heathrow Express being retained, if it continues beyond Terminal 5 via a new Western link as a semi-fast to Reading or even Newbury, Basingstoke, or Oxford.

 

[Topological]

When trains start calling at the new Old Oak Common, not going to be that much difference in running time of IETs and 110mph EMUs, to airport junction. Perhaps 1.5-2 minutes max.

If need to do fast-slow weave 15 miles out regularly, why was the crossover not upgraded from a slow one ? Is is it planning blight as it is approximately where Heathrow Western access junction would be located.

I could easily forsee the Heathrow Express being retained, if it continues beyond Terminal 5 via a new Western link as a semi-fast to Reading or even Newbury, Basingstoke, or Oxford.

A little off-topic, but you could take the Western access to Heathrow off the reliefs and then avoid any trains needing to weave.

I would probably send the Elizabeth Line trains back out again rather than Heathrow Express though.

However, access to GWR stations will be much better via OOC than changing at Reading. Currently, there is an incentive to change at Reading so a lot will depend on how the fares work with OOC.

The advantage of Heathrow Express to Heathrow is that its existence means a reassurance of fast transit to London. Those with more time on their hands may research cheaper options, and may then use the additional time on travel too, but for those who want an easy life there is a Heathrow Express. This reassures airlines and generally makes the value proposition of a Heathrow slot higher. Gatwick, Luton and Stansted are forever constrained that their "express" is actually a commuter train.

 

[quantinghome]

The advantage of Heathrow Express to Heathrow is that its existence means a reassurance of fast transit to London. Those with more time on their hands may research cheaper options, and may then use the additional time on travel too, but for those who want an easy life there is a Heathrow Express. This reassures airlines and generally makes the value proposition of a Heathrow slot higher. Gatwick, Luton and Stansted are forever constrained that their "express" is actually a commuter train.

Easy if your end destination is Paddington. Not so easy if you're going literally anywhere else. HEx is well behind the other rail alternatives in passenger share. Not convinced it's really much of a value proposition. I'm dubious about 'prestige' as an argument for any investment. You usually end up with things like the Bristol Brabazon and Concorde.

https://www.heathrow.com/content/da...ity/futher-reading/STZ-2024-annual-report.pdf

 

[cactustwirly]

Yes, but the Didcot services run for nearly fifteen miles on the fast line and cross over a flat junction at slow speed.

Exactly, the HEX runs 2 minutes behind this service!

 

[Royston Vasey]

Easy if your end destination is Paddington. Not so easy if you're going literally anywhere else. HEx is well behind the other rail alternatives in passenger share. Not convinced it's really much of a value proposition. I'm dubious about 'prestige' as an argument for any investment. You usually end up with things like the Bristol Brabazon and Concorde.

https://www.heathrow.com/content/da...ity/futher-reading/STZ-2024-annual-report.pdf

View attachment 189656

Not literally anywhere else. Thinking only of the London terminals, Kings Cross is faster and easier via HEx and the H&C/Circle Line than Elizabeth and Thameslink (and Kings Cross is where I usually need to go through), also Victoria, Charing Cross, Marylebone, Euston, Waterloo you'd need to take the tube from somewhere anyway, Paddington or otherwise, and the faster option to Paddington then tube thus makes sense.

Liverpool St is obviously direct on EL (albeit only twice an hour to T5). But even to places like London Bridge and St Pancras on Thameslink, posters here exaggerate the time saving and underestimate the hassle/time of changing at Farringdon. As well as HEx to tube connections, the HEx to Elizabeth Line connection at Paddington is quite quick, so HEx plus EL is a viable option as well (and one I often take myself) for the added comfort, peace and quiet, toilets, luggage space and speed to Paddington.

The sorts of people who have a central London hotel are the sort of people who are on business or are not on a tight budget, in which case they are prime targets for the premium service anyway.

 

[Djgr]

Easy if your end destination is Paddington. Not so easy if you're going literally anywhere else. HEx is well behind the other rail alternatives in passenger share. Not convinced it's really much of a value proposition. I'm dubious about 'prestige' as an argument for any investment. You usually end up with things like the Bristol Brabazon and Concorde.

https://www.heathrow.com/content/da...ity/futher-reading/STZ-2024-annual-report.pdf

View attachment 189656

These figures certainly put HEx into perspective! At least (for now!) it's above the bus!

 

[WAO]

These figures certainly put HEx into perspective! At least (for now!) it's above the bus!

As well as the above, revenue per train mile would be relevant.

HEX might even perhaps drop to 2ph to match demand if needed, as passengers could also have access to the business class lounges. Sharply timed transfers are not advisable with air travel.

There is rarely a recession in demand for luxury goods or services.

WAO

 

[Topological]

Not literally anywhere else. Thinking only of the London terminals, Kings Cross is faster and easier via HEx and the H&C/Circle Line than Elizabeth and Thameslink (and Kings Cross is where I usually need to go through), also Victoria, Charing Cross, Marylebone, Euston, Waterloo you'd need to take the tube from somewhere anyway, Paddington or otherwise, and the faster option to Paddington then tube thus makes sense.

Liverpool St is obviously direct on EL (albeit only twice an hour to T5). But even to places like London Bridge and St Pancras on Thameslink, posters here exaggerate the time saving and underestimate the hassle/time of changing at Farringdon. As well as HEx to tube connections, the HEx to Elizabeth Line connection at Paddington is quite quick, so HEx plus EL is a viable option as well (and one I often take myself) for the added comfort, peace and quiet, toilets, luggage space and speed to Paddington.

The sorts of people who have a central London hotel are the sort of people who are on business or are not on a tight budget, in which case they are prime targets for the premium service anyway.

Exactly

Heathrow Express is not about catering to numbers, it is about a particular market that is less price-sensitive.

 

[Royston Vasey]

Exactly

Heathrow Express is not about catering to numbers, it is about a particular market that is less price-sensitive.

Making that argument here will, however, be attacked for serving "wealthy" travellers with a fast option that wastes the "golden opportunity" of yet another fast path to Reading. The same zealots who think First Class should be abolished completely everywhere.

 

[cactustwirly]

Making that argument here will, however, be attacked for serving "wealthy" travellers with a fast option that wastes the "golden opportunity" of yet another fast path to Reading. The same zealots who think First Class should be abolished completely everywhere.

Even though said fast path doesn't necessarily exist, or would be used
GWR don't seem keen to increase services, they replaced the Bristol super fast path, with an all day semi fast train to Didcot for example

 

[Bald Rick]

But even to places like London Bridge and St Pancras on Thameslink, posters here exaggerate the time saving and underestimate the hassle/time of changing at Farringdon.

Travelling between Thameslink and Heathrow, it is much, much less hassle changing at Farringdon with the Elizabeth Line than it is via HEx and the underground.

 

[Zomboid]

For people coming in from non TL or EL routes it's probably a matter of preference as much as anything. Arrive at Waterloo and the best route is probably Bakerloo to Paddington then you make a choice. Arrive at Paddington and it's a choice. Arrive at Marylebone and head to Paddington to make a choice. If you're not already on TL at Kings Cross or St Pancras then the circle line and HEx is just as credible as getting onto TL and changing at Farringdon.

A decent proportion people choosing their route at Paddington will pick the more expensive fast train direct to the airport over the overgrown tube that stops everywhere.

 

[Djgr]

For people coming in from non TL or EL routes it's probably a matter of preference as much as anything. Arrive at Waterloo and the best route is probably Bakerloo to Paddington then you make a choice. Arrive at Paddington and it's a choice. Arrive at Marylebone and head to Paddington to make a choice. If you're not already on TL at Kings Cross or St Pancras then the circle line and HEx is just as credible as getting onto TL and changing at Farringdon.

A decent proportion people choosing their route at Paddington will pick the more expensive fast train direct to the airport over the overgrown tube that stops everywhere.

Wouldn't you change at Bond Street from Waterloo onto the EL?

What we can see from the figures provided above is that 80% of rail journeys to Heathrow are not on HEx.

 

[Zomboid]

You could, or you could change at Paddington onto either. You could also change at a variety of places onto the Piccadilly line.

I'm just agreeing with the notion that HEx is not only useful to those who need Paddington, it's a perfectly reasonable choice for people from a bunch of other places too, even now Crossrail is operating.

 

[Brubulus]

From a purely timetabling perspective - looking at the Dec 25 timetable, the 'HEx services only use the Slough gap' argument seems to have disappeared. The Oxfords no longer call at Slough, and Slough's GW services seem to be exclusively the Didcot Parkway Dolphin Junction crossers. In the peaks Sloughs get no GW at all - the Didcots are promoted from Class 2 to Class 1 and are first stop Maidenhead.

I do wonder whether a Main - Relief path swap *could* be possible.

Have 4tph 'first stop Slough' crossing at Dolphin Junction in parallel moves. These effectively take the HEx paths east of Airport Junction. This means 4tph Crossrail Readings / Maidenheads can be repurposed to become Heathrow trains and call at all stops on the Relief Lines. This gives Heathrow 8-10tph consistent stopping pattern, and inner Relief Line stations get a metro service. Slough and outwards are back to being served by fast mainline trains with toilets.

The weak link in this is Dolphin Junction - having 4tph crossing all day (plus likely another 2tph Slough West crossers but peak only) might just break the system given the all-day frequencies of the LDHS on the Mains, and 'residual' Crossrails (still need up to 4tph west of West Drayton to serve the smaller stations) and WRLtH services on the Reliefs. On the Reliefs, I count 12tph between Slough and Dolphin Junction of which at least 8 run west of Maidenhead. Doing that and freight on top looks very tight.

There's no real need for peak extras if you're running 4tph all day. People from stations beyond Reading are unlikely to take the semi fast given the fact it's at least 14 mins slower plus the 10+ mins of waiting in Reading. I think the only way in which 4tph on the reliefs could be justified would be if the Newbury services are moved on to them.

Not literally anywhere else. Thinking only of the London terminals, Kings Cross is faster and easier via HEx and the H&C/Circle Line than Elizabeth and Thameslink (and Kings Cross is where I usually need to go through), also Victoria, Charing Cross, Marylebone, Euston, Waterloo you'd want to take the tube from somewhere anyway, probably Paddington, and the faster option to Paddington thus makes sense.

Liverpool St is obviously direct on EL (albeit only twice an hour to T5). But even to places like London Bridge and St Pancras on Thameslink, posters here exaggerate the time saving and underestimate the hassle/time of changing at Farringdon. As well as HEx to tube connections, the HEx to Elizabeth Line connection at Paddington is quite quick, so HEx plus EL is a viable option as well (and one I often take myself) for the added comfort, peace and quiet, toilets, luggage space and speed to Paddington.

The sorts of people who have a central London hotel are the sort of people who are on business or are not on a tight budget, in which case they are prime targets for the premium service anyway.

Kings Cross passengers are likely to just use the Piccadilly line, which is still the most popular form of public transport for going to Heathrow.

 

[quantinghome]

Not literally anywhere else. Thinking only of the London terminals, Kings Cross is faster and easier via HEx and the H&C/Circle Line than Elizabeth and Thameslink (and Kings Cross is where I usually need to go through), also Victoria, Charing Cross, Marylebone, Euston, Waterloo you'd need to take the tube from somewhere anyway, Paddington or otherwise, and the faster option to Paddington then tube thus makes sense.

Liverpool St is obviously direct on EL (albeit only twice an hour to T5). But even to places like London Bridge and St Pancras on Thameslink, posters here exaggerate the time saving and underestimate the hassle/time of changing at Farringdon. As well as HEx to tube connections, the HEx to Elizabeth Line connection at Paddington is quite quick, so HEx plus EL is a viable option as well (and one I often take myself) for the added comfort, peace and quiet, toilets, luggage space and speed to Paddington.

The sorts of people who have a central London hotel are the sort of people who are on business or are not on a tight budget, in which case they are prime targets for the premium service anyway.

Having done the Thames Valley - Yorkshire train journey many times over the years I don't share your appraisal about the Circle route from Paddington to KX/SP. Last time I did it I decided to go via Farringdon just to see what it was like via Crossrail and Thameslink - I expected some horribly labyrinthine interchange but it was actually really easy - at least connecting from eastbound to northbound.

I'll give you Victoria and Marylebone but Euston, Charing Cross, Waterloo, London Bridge, St Pancras and Kings Cross are all easier and quicker connections from Elizabeth.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2025 ==

Exactly

Heathrow Express is not about catering to numbers, it is about a particular market that is less price-sensitive.

If this was true, if EL had taken the price-sensitive passengers away from HEx, then we would expect to see HEx's fare income per passenger increasing over the past few years.
In fact the reverse is true - HEx's inflation-adjusted income has fallen more than its passenger numbers. It is having to compete on price with EL and other modes. Yes, it offers some benefits over EL, which enables it to charge a higher fare, but those benefits are limited, which constrains fares to below inflation.

 

[Royston Vasey]

Having done the Thames Valley - Yorkshire train journey many times over the years I don't share your appraisal about the Circle route from Paddington to KX/SP. Last time I did it I decided to go via Farringdon just to see what it was like via Crossrail and Thameslink - I expected some horribly labyrinthine interchange but it was actually really easy - at least connecting from eastbound to northbound.

I'll give you Victoria and Marylebone but Euston, Charing Cross, Waterloo, London Bridge, St Pancras and Kings Cross are all easier and quicker connections from Elizabeth.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2025 ==


If this was true, if EL had taken the price-sensitive passengers away from HEx, then we would expect to see HEx's fare income per passenger increasing over the past few years.
In fact the reverse is true - HEx's inflation-adjusted income has fallen more than its passenger numbers. It is having to compete on price with EL and other modes. Yes, it offers some benefits over EL, which enables it to charge a higher fare, but those benefits are limited, which constrains fares to below inflation.

Well, if coming from T5, you've arrived at Paddington 12 minutes quicker, twice as frequently, on HEx to start with. Connection to/from the subsurface is short at both Paddington and Kings Cross. I don't find Farringdon a fast connection once you've emerged from the depths of Crossrail and gone up and back down again to TL or H&C, and you don't have to cross a busy road from the far side lower level of St Pancras when you get there. By far my preference is to do those two short changes than have to sit on the Elizabeth Line with West London's finest for 40 minutes and still have to change at busy Farringdon. And if your timing wasn't lucky, you might have had to change trains back at T3 as well.

For the sake of argument, TfL journey planner gives a 57 minute end to end from Heathrow Terminal 5 to Kings Cross on both HEx to H&C and 57-60 minutes on EL to TL/H&C although courtesy of an unrealistic 0 minute connection at Farringdon and 12 minute connection to HEx to H&C at Paddington. In reality both of these connections are probably about 5 minutes. That's when the TfL planner isn't sending you to walk to Barbican to connect to the tube, which it often seems to.

You'd think that HEx reducing their fares on average, given that Elizabeth Line must whack the Heathrow premium on their fares, might be considered a Good Thing around here; I am confused as to how it's been used as another stick to beat them with. Don't forget that with Railcard discounts (everyone is entitled to a Network Railcard) the HEx fare is £16.65 for a fully flex single, compared to £12.80 for a point to point on EL. Outboundary travelcards with a railcard are obviously a much sweeter deal (Z1-6 £13 per day) but most EL passengers will use contactless from the Zones.

You and others here clearly, don't support a premium service for the four million a year who want it and will pay for it, or it taking paths out of Paddington that may or may not have any viability/available rolling stock for other services. There are plenty of declared and undeclared operational and ideological reasons why those arguing against it are doing so, and everyone is fairly entrenched in their positions. Personally, I think it's great there is the choice, the capacity and a competitive market that offers three differentiated routes to Heathrow - and provides vital redundancy in times of disruption.

In reality, I very much doubt either HAL or HMG will be discontinuing the Express service at the next renewal, or any time soon.

 

[quantinghome]

Well, if coming from T5, you've arrived at Paddington 12 minutes quicker, twice as frequently, on HEx to start with. Connection to/from the subsurface is short at both Paddington and Kings Cross. I don't find Farringdon a fast connection once you've emerged from the depths of Crossrail and gone up and back down again to TL or H&C, and you don't have to cross a busy road from the far side lower level of St Pancras when you get there. By far my preference is to do those two short changes than have to sit on the Elizabeth Line with West London's finest for 40 minutes and still have to change at busy Farringdon. And if your timing wasn't lucky, you might have had to change trains back at T3 as well.

For the sake of argument, TfL journey planner gives a 57 minute end to end from Heathrow Terminal 5 to Kings Cross on both HEx to H&C and 57-60 minutes on EL to TL/H&C although courtesy of an unrealistic 0 minute connection at Farringdon and 12 minute connection to HEx to H&C at Paddington. In reality both of these connections are probably about 5 minutes. That's when the TfL planner isn't sending you to walk to Barbican to connect to the tube, which it often seems to.

You'd think that HEx reducing their fares on average, given that Elizabeth Line must whack the Heathrow premium on their fares, might be considered a Good Thing around here; I am confused as to how it's been used as another stick to beat them with. Don't forget that with Railcard discounts (everyone is entitled to a Network Railcard) the HEx fare is £16.65 for a fully flex single, compared to £12.80 for a point to point on EL. Outboundary travelcards with a railcard are obviously a much sweeter deal (Z1-6 £13 per day) but most EL passengers will use contactless from the Zones.

You and others here clearly, don't support a premium service for the four million a year who want it and will pay for it, or it taking paths out of Paddington that may or may not have any viability/available rolling stock for other services. There are plenty of declared and undeclared operational and ideological reasons why those arguing against it are doing so, and everyone is fairly entrenched in their positions. Personally, I think it's great there is the choice, the capacity and a competitive market that offers three differentiated routes to Heathrow - and provides vital redundancy in times of disruption.

In reality, I very much doubt either HAL or HMG will be discontinuing the Express service at the next renewal, or any time soon.

Some people on here like HEx. Some people think it's a waste. I'm neither. I honestly don't care. I've no idea whether or not it will continue as I'm not privy to HAL's thoughts on the prospects of subsidising the service as its operating profit disappears. What I do see is that they have limited room for manoeuvre - it can be a bit 'premium' but can't afford to be as premium as it was in the past, and clearly there's no business case for going more premium / pullman. This isn't a stick to beat them with, just acknowledging the reality of a service up against a competitor which has substantially more extensive connections.

 

[Djgr]

Well, if coming from T5, you've arrived at Paddington 12 minutes quicker, twice as frequently, on HEx to start with. Connection to/from the subsurface is short at both Paddington and Kings Cross. I don't find Farringdon a fast connection once you've emerged from the depths of Crossrail and gone up and back down again to TL or H&C, and you don't have to cross a busy road from the far side lower level of St Pancras when you get there. By far my preference is to do those two short changes than have to sit on the Elizabeth Line with West London's finest for 40 minutes and still have to change at busy Farringdon. And if your timing wasn't lucky, you might have had to change trains back at T3 as well.

For the sake of argument, TfL journey planner gives a 57 minute end to end from Heathrow Terminal 5 to Kings Cross on both HEx to H&C and 57-60 minutes on EL to TL/H&C although courtesy of an unrealistic 0 minute connection at Farringdon and 12 minute connection to HEx to H&C at Paddington. In reality both of these connections are probably about 5 minutes. That's when the TfL planner isn't sending you to walk to Barbican to connect to the tube, which it often seems to.

You'd think that HEx reducing their fares on average, given that Elizabeth Line must whack the Heathrow premium on their fares, might be considered a Good Thing around here; I am confused as to how it's been used as another stick to beat them with. Don't forget that with Railcard discounts (everyone is entitled to a Network Railcard) the HEx fare is £16.65 for a fully flex single, compared to £12.80 for a point to point on EL. Outboundary travelcards with a railcard are obviously a much sweeter deal (Z1-6 £13 per day) but most EL passengers will use contactless from the Zones.

You and others here clearly, don't support a premium service for the four million a year who want it and will pay for it, or it taking paths out of Paddington that may or may not have any viability/available rolling stock for other services. There are plenty of declared and undeclared operational and ideological reasons why those arguing against it are doing so, and everyone is fairly entrenched in their positions. Personally, I think it's great there is the choice, the capacity and a competitive market that offers three differentiated routes to Heathrow - and provides vital redundancy in times of disruption.

In reality, I very much doubt either HAL or HMG will be discontinuing the Express service at the next renewal, or any time soon.

I would feel more comfortable about the merits of choice if I felt arrivals in Heathrow were getting true and full information about the choices open to them and were not being pounced on by HEx touts.

 

[Egg Centric]

Very much in the spirit of "problem to justify the solution", why not open a massive coach park at the former site of Heathrow Junction and open a shuttle service from there to Paddington using the 3 fast line slots. Victoria coach station can then be shut. This to be paid for by increasing the Elizabeth line Heathrow supplement and converting the existing coach station into accommodation.

This gives coaches almost immediate access to/from the motorway so probably making most journeys quicker and gets around the "problem" of the fast line slots not being much use for anything other than HeX atm.

There may be a secondary benefit of giving people who take long distance coaches the experience of a high quality train ride which may convert them to rail travellers in future; and possibly the other way around too - I would be marginally less unlikely to take a coach if it were motorway only rather than start/stop London traffic.

 

[MrJeeves]

I don't find Farringdon a fast connection once you've emerged from the depths of Crossrail and gone up and back down again to TL or H&C, and you don't have to cross a busy road from the far side lower level of St Pancras when you get there.

Helpfully, the lift from Elizabeth Line will take you right to the southbound Thameslink platform (handy for me!), or the single escalator to northbound Thameslink isn't too bad!

 

[sad1e]

Would removing HEX on the fast lines free up enough paths for a Paddington - Birmingham moor Street service? If so this might be very useful in the near future when they have to knock down Euston to rebuild it for HS2.

 

[quantinghome]

Would removing HEX on the fast lines free up enough paths for a Paddington - Birmingham moor Street service? If so this might be very useful in the near future when they have to knock down Euston to rebuild it for HS2.

Probably not necessary. The first HS2 platforms to be built at Euston (if it happens) will be next to the existing station. Once those are in, some of the long distance trains will decant to there from the old station platforms, which can then be rebuilt in stages without significant reduction in platform capacity.

 

[Royston Vasey]

Helpfully, the lift from Elizabeth Line will take you right to the southbound Thameslink platform (handy for me!), or the single escalator to northbound Thameslink isn't too bad!

Good for a Heathrow to Gatwick connection for sure!

 

[cle]

Surely adding more service/a faster pattern to Marylebone would be better for that.

There are unused paths on Chiltern - and it is a far quicker direct route to Banbury than via Reading - - - - - there did used to be a non-stop Leamington pattern (and many fast to Banbury) which might be useful again for a Euston closure.

As might the OOC-Curzon shuttles!

 

[Bald Rick]

Would removing HEX on the fast lines free up enough paths for a Paddington - Birmingham moor Street service? If so this might be very useful in the near future when they have to knock down Euston to rebuild it for HS2.

It will free up Main Line paths between Paddington and Airport Junction, perhaps even Reading. Beyond Reading, it doesn’t, obviously.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Good for a Heathrow to Gatwick connection for sure!

How many journeys are likely to do that?

 

[Bletchleyite]

How many journeys are likely to do that?

Quite a lot of people traditionally did, but BA seems to be reducing its Gatwick presence these days.

"Oh my lord, BA have booked me connecting between airports, how on earth do I do that" used to be a perennial post by Americans on Flyertalk and the likes.