The 2024 US presidential election.

[edwin_m]

For the record, the polls haven't moved. What's happened is that GOP funded pollsters flooded the zone with cooked polls that have Trump up +3 in every swing state to make the averages look close.

Assuming that's so, wouldn't it be in their interest to do the opposite? Narrow lead for Trump might encourage Harris supporters to cast a vote.

 

[ainsworth74]

Turnout will be the factor deciding the election.

Absolutely, and this is of course why various Russian bots and other influence operations will do everything to try and get Dem voters to disengage and stay home. Palestine in this context is very useful to them as being a wedge they can use to try and get some Democratic voters to stay home and not bother voting. The cry of "Genocide Joe" and the linking of Harris being complicit in said genocide is a powerful wedge that can be used and amplified by bad actors to try and disengage Muslim voters and Democrat left-wing for whom Palestine is a key issue. I've seen a fair bit on American left wing spaces that they're fully on the "both sides are the same!" train and the Russians are just feeding into that hoping to keep them at home. Even though, quite demonstrably, both sides are not the same.

 

[AM9]

Absolutely, and this is of course why various Russian bots and other influence operations will do everything to try and get Dem voters to disengage and stay home. Palestine in this context is very useful to them as being a wedge they can use to try and get some Democratic voters to stay home and not bother voting. The cry of "Genocide Joe" and the linking of Harris being complicit in said genocide is a powerful wedge that can be used and amplified by bad actors to try and disengage Muslim voters and Democrat left-wing for whom Palestine is a key issue. I've seen a fair bit on American left wing spaces that they're fully on the "both sides are the same!" train and the Russians are just feeding into that hoping to keep them at home. Even though, quite demonstrably, both sides are not the same.

I think the GOP funded pollsters are just stroking Trump's ego.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think the GOP funded pollsters are just stroking Trump's ego.

That's a separate issue I'd say. If anything that's working against the attempt to get Dem voters to stay home. If they think it's close they're more likely to come out and vote.

 

[Gloster]

I am beginning to wonder if some of those high up in the Republican Party are sabotaging Trump’s campaign because they feel that a victory for him would be disastrous for the country or, probably of greater importance to them, the GOP. A feeling that it is better to lose this one and come back reinvigorated in 2028, rather than go through the likely unpredictable chaos of his presidency, which might lead to a long period of Democratic leadership if Trump hasn’t interfered with the constitution and system too much. It doesn’t need many to do this, just a few smart operators in the right positions.

We should also be aware that if Trump becomes President-elect when the Electoral College meets, but then becomes incapacitated or unfit, the V-P takes over, as he would after Inauguration. I find the thought of Vance in change extremely worrying: possibly less irrational, but potentially more extreme.

 

[bahnause]

It appears that Trump’s mental collapse is far worse than previously thought. The public events he has done in recent days have been difficult to watch and it’s no surprise, he keeps cancelling interviews. I know many of you have seen elderly family members struggle in similar ways. This sort of decline accelerates rapidly.

And the hypocrisy of the media not calling it out is sickening. Imagine if Joe Biden had zoned out like this. Can you imagine that?

 

[nlogax]

It appears that Trump’s mental collapse is far worse than previously thought. The public events he has done in recent days have been difficult to watch and it’s no surprise, he keeps cancelling interviews. I know many of you have seen elderly family members struggle in similar ways. This sort of decline accelerates rapidly.

I read a piece on the WP this morning with Trump's verbatim response to a question about how he'll tackle the high cost of groceries. The full story via the link includes footnotes and context and is worth reading in its own right, but.. yeah.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/15/heres-how-donald-trump-will-lower-grocery-prices/

So, you know, it’s such a great question in the sense that people don’t think of grocery. You know, it sounds like not such an important word when you talk about homes and everything else, right? But more people tell me about grocery bills, where the price of bacon, the price of lettuce, the price of tomatoes, they tell me. And we’re going to do a lot of things.

You know, our farmers aren’t being treated properly. And we had a deal with China, and it was a great deal — I never mentioned it because once covid came in, I said, that was a bridge too far because I had a great relationship with President Xi [Jinping]. And he’s a fierce man and he’s a man that likes China and I understand that. But we had a deal and he was perfect on that deal, $50 billion he was going to buy. We were doing numbers like you wouldn’t believe, for the farmer. But the farmers are very badly hurt. The farmers in this country, we’re going to get them straightened out. We’re going to get your prices down.

But you asked another question about safety and also about Black population jobs and Hispanic population in particular those two. So when millions of people pour into our country, they’re having a devastating effect on Black families and Hispanic families more than any others. I think it’s going to spread to a lot of other places.

I think it’s going to spread to unions. I think unions are going to have a big problem because, you know, employers are just not going to pay the price. They’re going to — and it’s going to be — it’s a very bad thing that’s happening.

So they’re coming in. Many are coming in from jails and prisons and mental institutions, insane asylums. That’s like, you know, step above, right? Insane asylum. And whenever I go, Hannibal Lecter, you know what I’m talking about. They always go — the fake news. That’s a lot of fake news back there, too.

They always mention — you know, it’s a way of demeaning, they say, ‘Hannibal Lecter, why would he mention?’ Well, you know why, because he was a sick puppy, and we have sick puppies coming into our country. I figured that’s a lot — that’s better than wasting a lot of words. You just say, ‘Hannibal Lecter. We don’t want him.’ But. But they always sort of say, ‘Why would he say that?’ I do it for a lot of reasons.

But I do it because we are allowing some very bad people into our country. And they’re coming as terrorists. You know, you saw the other day, last month they had the record number of terrorists. I had a month — and I love Border Patrol.

Did you see they gave me a full endorsement two days ago? Border Patrol. The Border Patrol. And they’re great. And, you know, they want to do their job. They don’t want to let these people come in. They look at them. They can tell. They can look at somebody, say good, bad. They say what’s coming into our country now, it’s having a huge negative impact on Black families and on Hispanic families and ultimately on everybody.

And we’re going to close that border so tight. It’s going to be closed. And I said the two things I’m going to do, first, we’re going to close that border — and people are going to come in. You want people to come in. We need people to come in. People are going to come into our country legally.

You know, it’s so unfair. You have people that are waiting on a system, in a line and they’ve been waiting in this line. You know how long? For years, 10 years, 12 years and they study and they take tests. And then people come. I actually say, ‘Why don’t you just go and just come on across?’ I tell people that it’s terrible, right? I said, ‘Go out. You’re incredible.’ They say, ‘What can I do to speed up the process?’ I say, ‘You know what, go to the southern border. I’ll see you on the other side.’ It’s so unfair. But we’re going to have them come in legally. You have to see what they have to do. They take tests on, you know, who was the first one here? What date was this? What does 1776 mean? All this stuff.

And these other people are coming in and they’re affecting the school systems and they’re affecting the hospital system. I mean, if you take a look at what’s going on in Springfield, Ohio, a town of 50,000 people, they’ve just added 32,000 people. Illegal immigrants. And we’re not going to put up with it.

And we’re going to take care of your costs are going to come down, and you’re not going to have a problem with — because the biggest problem, and I’m hearing it from Black people and to a lesser extent right now, but it’ll be the same, Hispanic people. And I’ll tell you what, our poll numbers have gone through the roof. With Black and Hispanic, have gone through the roof. And I like that. I like that. I like that. So we’re going to take care of it. You will be — I’ll tell you, if everything works out, if everybody gets out and votes on January 5th. Or before.

You know, it used to be, you’d have a date. Today, you can vote two months before, probably three months after. They don’t know what the hell they’re doing. But we’re going to straighten it all out. We’re going to straighten that out. We’re going to straighten our election process out, too. That’s going to be important, also. So thank you very much, darling. We’re going to get it straight. Thank you.”

 

[bahnause]

At this point it is safe to say: A vote for Trump is a vote for JD Vance.

 

[wilbers]

Springfield pet-eating hoax - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Just been reading this to see if Trump had retracted what he said and I missed the retraction, but nope, nothing. What I do see there is that JD Vance posted that c**p before Trump mentioned it, and the bizarre thing is that in that moment Trump seemed to genuinely believe it was true. Wonder what other fairy tales JD Vance has been telling Trump.

This is another lie [the first bit of it] that I've not heard mentioned.

In the same interview, Vance stated that murders in Springfield were up 81% and blamed immigrants despite no Haitians being involved in any Springfield murder.

 

[nlogax]

Just been reading this to see if Trump had retracted what he said and I missed the retraction, but nope, nothing.

You're not really suggesting that Trump would consider retracting something he's said..?

 

[Gloster]

A thought that I had earlier. Could the various bonkers right be working on the idea of letting Trump run right up to the election and then, just before it, getting or forcing him to stand down and putting Vance up as the candidate. Vance has not suffered anything like the attention of Trump or Harris and so can be put forward as (relatively) new and unsullied. Nor would there really be much time to investigate the new V-P candidate. Of course there are problems with this: getting Trump to back down and shut up being not the least of them. There could also be problems with the timing and the nutty Trumpists ‘objecting’. But with Trump seemingly becoming increasingly irrational, it might solve that problem if it might turn the election.

 

[brad465]

A thought that I had earlier. Could the various bonkers right be working on the idea of letting Trump run right up to the election and then, just before it, getting or forcing him to stand down and putting Vance up as the candidate. Vance has not suffered anything like the attention of Trump or Harris and so can be put forward as (relatively) new and unsullied. Nor would there really be much time to investigate the new V-P candidate. Of course there are problems with this: getting Trump to back down and shut up being not the least of them. There could also be problems with the timing and the nutty Trumpists ‘objecting’. But with Trump seemingly becoming increasingly irrational, it might solve that problem if it might turn the election.

How much is Trump appearing and speaking on the airwaves in the US does anyone know? My impression is not a lot (especially compared to previous elections), but if he is elected he will be expected to appear more, which would expose his decline even more and could create buyer's remorse among some of his voters. If he tries to hide from the media even as President again, that will create all sorts of speculation in its own right.

 

[ainsworth74]

At this point it is safe to say: A vote for Trump is a vote for JD Vance.

Agreed. I'm not convinced he'll make it through a full term or indeed most of a term. Heck, it's a bit tin foil hat but I wouldn't rule out him not making it through the first week!

I think there's potential that there's a scheme somewhere within the GOP to use Trump to win the election and then shortly after January 20th 2025 Vance will assemble the Cabinet and use the 25th Amendment to make a declaration that Trump is unfit at the same time going on TV/Twitter/etc and making a solemn speech to the effect that: "We've all noticed that our beloved President Donald J Trump has been having some slightly odd behavioural quirks in the last few months but we were so blinded by loyalty and hope for what he could do in office that we ignored these warning signs. However, now that he's taken office it's become clear that these aren't just minor issues and mistake. President Trump is not able to follow through with what the Presidency requires and what our country needs to make sure that we take back our country from the woke leftists that have so damaged our great nation in recent years. The Cabinet and I have therefore been left with no choice but to invoke the 25th Amendment and will assume, with a heavy heart, the role of Acting President." Bada bing bada boom, Vance is Acting President and Trump is completely side-lined and either stews impotently for four years or someone eventually gets around to impeaching him and making Vance the actual President.

Only slightly stumbling block would be if Trump wrote to Congress saying he was in fact fit to do the job then it'll end up being thrown to Congress and require a two-thirds majority in both Houses to confirm he is unfit. If they do Vance continues as Acting President, if they don't Trump would resume the role of President.

 

[brad465]

Agreed. I'm not convinced he'll make it through a full term or indeed most of a term. Heck, it's a bit tin foil hat but I wouldn't rule out him not making it through the first week!

I think there's potential that there's a scheme somewhere within the GOP to use Trump to win the election and then shortly after January 20th 2025 Vance will assemble the Cabinet and use the 25th Amendment to make a declaration that Trump is unfit at the same time going on TV/Twitter/etc and making a solemn speech to the effect that: "We've all noticed that our beloved President Donald J Trump has been having some slightly odd behavioural quirks in the last few months but we were so blinded by loyalty and hope for what he could do in office that we ignored these warning signs. However, now that he's taken office it's become clear that these aren't just minor issues and mistake. President Trump is not able to follow through with what the Presidency requires and what our country needs to make sure that we take back our country from the woke leftists that have so damaged our great nation in recent years. The Cabinet and I have therefore been left with no choice but to invoke the 25th Amendment and will assume, with a heavy heart, the role of Acting President." Bada bing bada boom, Vance is Acting President and Trump is completely side-lined and either stews impotently for four years or someone eventually gets around to impeaching him and making Vance the actual President.

Only slightly stumbling block would be if Trump wrote to Congress saying he was in fact fit to do the job then it'll end up being thrown to Congress and require a two-thirds majority in both Houses to confirm he is unfit. If they do Vance continues as Acting President, if they don't Trump would resume the role of President.

If that happens it will make Biden's withdrawal from the race look like a minor bump in the road.

 

[ainsworth74]

If that happens it will make Biden's withdrawal from the race look like a minor bump in the road.

I did say it was tin foil hat! Though if they have Congress, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court who will stop them?

 

[bspahh]

How much is Trump appearing and speaking on the airwaves in the US does anyone know? My impression is not a lot (especially compared to previous elections), but if he is elected he will be expected to appear more, which would expose his decline even more and could create buyer's remorse among some of his voters. If he tries to hide from the media even as President again, that will create all sorts of speculation in its own right.

I think he'll appear a lot on US TV. The thing is if your a Republican you'll watch a TV channel which shows soundbites where he says something coherent that you agree with. If you're a Democrat you'll watch TV channels where it shows soundbites where he rambles incoherently and says stuff you disagree with.

The problem with the US are that the election result comes down to a few floating voters in a few states.

 

[nlogax]

Agreed. I'm not convinced he'll make it through a full term or indeed most of a term. Heck, it's a bit tin foil hat but I wouldn't rule out him not making it through the first week!

Am not a betting man but the idea of putting a couple of hundred down on Trump not making it through a specific percentage of a term is appealing. Ideally I don't want to be even able to make such a bet to start with.

 

[Purple Train]

I read a piece on the WP this morning with Trump's verbatim response to a question about how he'll tackle the high cost of groceries. The full story via the link includes footnotes and context and is worth reading in its own right, but.. yeah.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/15/heres-how-donald-trump-will-lower-grocery-prices/

I find it terribly strange how I have heard nothing about this from the people who were complaining about Biden's mental faculties and lucidity.

 

[bahnause]

How much is Trump appearing and speaking on the airwaves in the US does anyone know? My impression is not a lot (especially compared to previous elections), but if he is elected he will be expected to appear more, which would expose his decline even more and could create buyer's remorse among some of his voters. If he tries to hide from the media even as President again, that will create all sorts of speculation in its own right.

I don't think there will be no buyers remorse. The Trump voters are too dumb or too vile. They like what he stands for or they have no clue what outcome a Trump presidency could have. The Republicans in their current form are just the Taliban with white skin and a bible after all.

 

[ainsworth74]

The Republicans in their current form are just the Taliban with white skin and a bible after all.

It's not as if they weren't warned either:

Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them.

That of course being Republican Senator and 1964 presidential candidate Barry Goldwater speaking in the early 90s. Goldwater probably wouldn't even get nominated to run in either Congress or the Senate these days let alone the presidency.

 

[Strathclyder]

I read a piece on the WP this morning with Trump's verbatim response to a question about how he'll tackle the high cost of groceries. The full story via the link includes footnotes and context and is worth reading in its own right, but.. yeah.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/15/heres-how-donald-trump-will-lower-grocery-prices/

Reading the first paragraph of that gave me a brain cramp. Reading the rest would've made my brain leak out my ears, so I ain't gonna subject myself to that. Anyone who thinks he isn't mentally backsliding quicker than a rocket-powered Mini down a ski slope after reading that is either fully bought into the cult, outright delousional/detached from reality/a moron, a flaming hypocrite or looking to ride his coattails into a position of power. Most of the rank-and-file GOP fit neatly into the last 3 slots.

 

[brad465]

Next up in the Trump being senile and unhinged saga:

At a Pennsylvania Rally, Trump Descends to New Levels of Vulgarity

The G.O.P. nominee repeated crude insults, and his supporters relished each moment. But the display could alienate swing voters.

www.nytimes.com

Former President Donald J. Trump on Saturday spewed crude and vulgar remarks at a rally in Pennsylvania that included an off-color remark about a famous golfer’s penis size and a coarse insult about Vice President Kamala Harris.
The performance, 17 days before the election in a critical battleground state, added to the impression of the Republican nominee as increasingly unfiltered and undisciplined. It comes as some of Mr. Trump’s allies and aides worry that Mr. Trump’s temperament and crass style are alienating undecided voters.
It was unclear if the outbursts and insults were an expression of his frustration as the campaign grinds on or of his reflexive desire to entertain his crowds. At her own events on Saturday, Ms. Harris called attention to Mr. Trump’s temperament and his tendency to “go off script and ramble.”
Mr. Trump opened his speech at the airport in Latrobe, Pa., with 12 minutes of reminiscing about the golfer Arnold Palmer, who grew up in the Western Pennsylvania town and for whom the airport was named.

His monologue culminated in lewd remarks about the size of Mr. Palmer’s penis. Moments later, Mr. Trump gave the crowd an opportunity to call out a profanity. He went on to use that four-letter word to describe Ms. Harris.
“Such a horrible four years,” Mr. Trump said, referring to the Biden-Harris administration, as he surveyed the crowd of hundreds of people in front of him. “We had a horrible — think of the — everything they touch turns to —.”

Many in his audience — which was mostly made up of adults but included some children, infants and teenagers — eagerly filled in the blank, shouting, “****!”

Minutes later, Mr. Trump urged his supporters to vote, telling them that they had to send a crude message to Ms. Harris: “We can’t stand you, you’re a **** vice president.”

With Election Day nearing, Mr. Trump’s advisers billed Saturday’s speech as the start of his efforts to make a closing argument to voters. But the choice to open his rally with a long story about Mr. Palmer — one of the few topics Mr. Trump spoke about at significant length without veering off on tangents — set a curious tone.

“This is a guy that was all man,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Palmer, who died in 2016. “This man was strong and tough. And I refuse to say it, but when he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there, they said, ‘Oh, my god, that’s unbelievable.’”

As the crowd reacted, Mr. Trump chuckled. Later, he said, “I had to tell you the shower part of it because it’s true. What can I tell you? We want to be honest.”
Mr. Trump has always enjoyed shocking people, and in addition to cursing volubly, he enjoys talking about sex and men’s and women’s looks.
But in the past, he had refrained, for the most part, from being overtly crude publicly as a candidate or as president. Now, however, as he makes his third run for the White House and has become visibly angrier since Ms. Harris joined the race, there has been a notable uptick in such behavior, especially in the campaign’s final weeks and days.

In rallies, in interviews and on social media, he has seemingly relished deploying off-color language that politicians shied away from in another era. He has reposted racially and sexually charged insults of Ms. Harris on his Truth Social website, and he has done little to dissuade or calm crowds that have chanted profanity about the people with whom he has grievances.
This week, Mr. Trump was speaking at a Catholic charity event and standing mere feet from the Archbishop of New York when he swore while insulting Bill de Blasio, the former mayor of New York. “He was a terrible mayor,” Mr. Trump said. “I don’t give a **** if this is comedy or not.”
Mr. Trump often uses a variation of that word to allude to the four criminal cases against him. “I won’t say it, because I don’t like using the word ‘bull****’ in front of these beautiful children,” he said in June at an event at a megachurch in Arizona, where the crowd began chanting it in unison, to Mr. Trump’s glee.
It was one of several recent acknowledgments from Mr. Trump, including one in Latrobe, that his profanity had the potential to offend. Mr. Trump has often told his crowds the story of a letter he received from Franklin Graham, the evangelical leader, urging him to clean up his language.
“I wrote him back,” Mr. Trump said on Saturday. “I said, I’m going to try to do that, but actually, the stories won’t be as good. Because you can’t put the same emphasis on it. So tonight, I broke my rule.”

Many of those who attend his rallies reflect his attitude in their apparel, wearing shirts, baseball caps and other clothing with vulgar expressions, many of which are aimed at Ms. Harris.

In Latrobe, Mr. Trump eventually shifted to his typical campaign themes. At one point, he insisted his election might bring about “America’s new golden age.”
It was a rare moment of optimism in his speech. Mostly, Mr. Trump continued to use dark, at times violent, rhetoric to describe the Biden administration, the American economy and illegal immigration, which he once again spoke of as a military invasion.

 

[wilbers]

Is there a bit of a loophole in US election law, or only specific to Pennsylvania? That basically sounds like bribing the voters, even if its only a handful that actually get money.

Elon Musk pledges to give away $1m per day to Pennsylvania voters

The winner will be chosen from those who sign a petition by the tech billionaire's Trump-supporting campaign group.

www.bbc.co.uk

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has said he will give away $1m (£766,000) a day to a registered voter in the key swing state of Pennsylvania until the US presidential election in November.

The winner will be chosen at random from those who sign a pro-constitution petition by Musk’s campaign group AmericaPAC which he set up to support Republican nominee Donald Trump's bid to return to the White House.

 

[bahnause]

Trump tried to run a fry station at a (closed) McDonalds. A staged event on the campaign trail. He struggled to follow simple instructions or adhering to health regulations. So McDonald’s looses money today. Just like everything he touches.

 

[Gloster]

Trump tried to run a fry station at a (closed) McDonalds. A staged event on the campaign trail. He struggled to follow simple instructions or adhering to health regulations. So McDonald’s looses money today. Just like everything he touches.

But the fries he tried to fry will now be available for sale: each one will be in a special presentation box with ‘I’m hot for Trump’ on it. Only $1000 per box. Get them while you can!

 

[dgl]

But the fries he tried to fry will now be available for sale: each one will be in a special presentation box with ‘I’m hot for Trump’ on it. Only $1000 per box. Get them while you can!

They'll be cold now so it'll have to be "I'm cold for Trump", pretty accurate as you'd have to be quite cold in the heart to vote for him!

 

[DarloRich]

The polls seen over the weekend look worryingly good for Trump. What a world we live in.

 

[wilbers]

But the fries he tried to fry will now be available for sale: each one will be in a special presentation box with ‘I’m hot for Trump’ on it. Only $1000 per box. Get them while you can!

That even sounds like something Trump would do... maybe the only reason he hasn't is that what is a lot of money to us mere mortals is utterly trivial to him - just how many $millions is he getting from Elon Musk alone.

 

[brad465]

So it's perfectly fine for Russia to interfere in US elections, but UK Labour party officials is an absolute no-no. I'd have more sympathy if the hypocrisy were not off the scale:

US 2024 election live updates: Trump campaign accuses UK Labour Party of election interference

Trump's campaign files a complaint to the US election watchdog, accusing Labour of "illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections".

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump files foreign interference complaint against Harris and UK's Labour Party
​

The Trump campaign says it's filed a complaint to the Federal Election Commission against the Harris-Walz campaign, as well Keir Starmer's Labour Party in the UK, for what it calls "illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections".

This is a developing story - we'll bring you more on this as we get the details.

Labour activists campaigning in US is done in 'personal capacity', BBC understands
​

Labour activists campaigning in the US election are doing so in a personal capacity, it is understood from Labour Party officials.

The trips are funded by individuals who have taken leave from their roles, and are not organised or funded by Labour - accommodation is arranged by volunteers campaigning for the Democrats, it is understood.

The party has yet to officially comment.

 

[bahnause]

Republicans keep saying Kamala Harris speaks in “word salad” because she speaks in a nuanced manner. They are so used to hearing first grade level vocabulary that anything more educated than that is confusing for them.