The 2024 US presidential election.

[OhNoAPacer]

I saw a comment that debating Trump is like it would be if you tried to debate against The National Enquirer.

 

[gg1]

The "weird" thing really seems to have stuck and the "weird" thing really seems to have riled the MAGA lot. It's great to see the Dems finally go low and get under their skin.

It's because they were very happy to be feared, which is how they interpreted criticism along the lines of Trump and his zealots being a threat to democracy, but being widely ridiculed isn't something they can easily twist into a source of pride.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It's basically what Trump has been doing to everyone else for all these years. Bully can't cope with people standing up to him.

I think this will be the key in this election. Vance is clueless and can't dance at this level, and Trump takes all these insults incredibly personally. It also doesn't help his chances that Harris seems genuinely warm and approachable, and the insults of the Democrats are hurting Trump without coming across as being vile.

All things considered though, I think there's still a big question over whether men will vote for Harris. We've seen the same reluctance to vote for a woman before, and unspoken misogyny is a major issue in places like North Carolina. While Harris can and probably will do incredibly well among women, there is a question over whether it won't result in a major backlash among men.

 

[edwin_m]

All things considered though, I think there's still a big question over whether men will vote for Harris. We've seen the same reluctance to vote for a woman before, and unspoken misogyny is a major issue in places like North Carolina. While Harris can and probably will do incredibly well among women, there is a question over whether it won't result in a major backlash among men.

And no doubt a significant dose of racism too.

 

[dgl]

Of course having Tim Waltz as her running mate/VP should help with the male vote issue, he's the perfect american somewhat and a military vet, and given Trumps behaviour at Arlington I can see a lot of people involved with the military using that to help with their decision.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm not going to link the post, but Elon Musk said in response to Swift endorsing Harris "I will give you a child and guard your cats with my life." It's gone down very badly as it can be seen as a rape threat.

As well as just being tremendously creepy and, you know, weird.

 

[Cowley]

It’s looking like there’s been another assassination attempt on Donald Trump:

Donald Trump safe and suspect held after man spotted with rifle

A gunman pointed a rifle at the former president on his Florida golf course, in what the FBI calls an apparent assassination attempt.

www.bbc.co.uk

Secret Service agents spotted the barrel of a rifle poking through some bushes and opened fire at him, officials said. The FBI said Trump was 300-500 yards (275 to 455m) away at the time.
An AK47-style firearm and scope, along with two backpacks and a GoPro camera, were later found at the scene.
A witness reported seeing the suspect running from some bushes and jumping into a black Nissan car after the agents had fired at him multiple times.

• The witness took a picture of the vehicle and number plate and it was stopped later in Martin County, north of the club.

"We got a hold of Martin County Sheriff's Office, alerted them, and they spotted the vehicle and pulled it over and detained the guy," said Sheriff Ric Bradshaw of Palm Beach County.
"After that, we took the witness that witnessed the incident, flew him up there and he identified as the person that he saw running out of the bushes, that jumped into the car," the sheriff told a news briefing.
In an email to his supporters, Trump said he was "safe and well".
"Nothing will slow me down," he wrote. "I will never surrender!"

 

[wilbers]

Is that a first in US political history, 2 assassination attempts on the same presidential candidate?

 

[edwin_m]

Is that a first in US political history, 2 assassination attempts on the same presidential candidate?

Candidate maybe, but Gerald Ford was shot at twice within 18 days during his presidency.

 

[AlterEgo]

Amazingly nobody seems all that bothered about this one.

 

[DarloRich]

Amazingly nobody seems all that bothered about this one.

Because nothing really happened. The authorities did thier job, stopped it, arrested the perpetrator and took the target to safety. Unlike the last time..............

 

[brad465]

Amazingly nobody seems all that bothered about this one.

If you're referring to the relative lack of posts here, there were a few posted as the story broke but were taken down for some reason. The news' outlets definitely are bothered in any case.

 

[AlterEgo]

If you're referring to the relative lack of posts here, there were a few posted as the story broke but were taken down for some reason. The news' outlets definitely are bothered in any case.

No, I mean in terms of the reaction in general. It’s really not feeling like a very important event and it hasn’t really affected the American political cycle in the way the last one did. I think this is partly because the attempted shooter didn’t get a shot off at him and therefore the news “hook” isn’t as strong.

 

[brad465]

No, I mean in terms of the reaction in general. It’s really not feeling like a very important event and it hasn’t really affected the American political cycle in the way the last one did. I think this is partly because the attempted shooter didn’t get a shot off at him and therefore the news “hook” isn’t as strong.

Fair points, I also think as no live recording exists of a shooting, plus the fact Trump wasn't photographed in an eye-catching act of defiance, contributes to lesser interest.

I bet though despite being on the receiving end of two plots/attempts to be assassinated using guns, Trump will still not change his position on guns.

 

[AM9]

I bet though despite being on the receiving end of two plots/attempts to be assassinated using guns, Trump will still not change his position on guns.

Live by the gun, ....

 

[bspahh]

These are the updated polls and odds:

State Polls	Democrats	Republicans	State Betting	Democrats	Republicans
Pennsylvania	46.7%	44.9%	Pennsylvania	10/11	1/1
Arizona	45.7%	45.2%	Arizona	10/11	10/11
Georgia	46.6%	46.0%	Georgia	6/4	4/7
North Carolina	45.8%	46.0%	North Carolina	6/4	4/7

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ has a nice summary of the opinion polls. This shows the states sorted by the competitiveness. The numbers are an average of ~5 recent polls. If you click the red links you can see the individual polls. If there are repeated polls by the same organization, you can compare the old and new values, which will help if there is a systematic bias in their approach.
The Democrat lead in Pennsylvania has grown in the last week.

 

[brad465]

The last thing Trump needs in a swing state battle is a party/candidate scandal, but he's got one: the GOP candidate for the state Governor allegedly posted years ago he was a "black Nazi" and is now under pressure to exit the race:

Mark Robinson: North Carolina governor candidate denies 'black Nazi' post

Mark Robinson insists he will stay in the governor race in the swing state.

www.bbc.co.uk

A Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina has insisted he will not exit the race after it was reported that he made controversial comments on a porn website more than a decade ago.
Mark Robinson characterised the CNN report, which alleged that he had referred to himself as a "black Nazi" on an adult forum, as "salacious tabloid lies".
He has been under pressure from state Republicans and members of Donald Trump's campaign team to quit the race in the swing state, according to anonymous sources quoted by the Carolina Journal newspaper.
Trump himself did not refer to the report during his comments at a Thursday night event in Washington about antisemitism.
Robinson, 56, is a former furniture manufacturer who was elected to be the state's first black lieutenant governor in 2020.
He won the nomination to run for governor in March after receiving an endorsement from Trump, who called him "Martin Luther King on steroids".
Robinson's race is in a potentially pivotal swing state which Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is hoping to wrest from the Republicans.

• Robinson to take on Josh Stein in North Carolina race

According to the CNN report published on Thursday, Robinson used to visit a porn website from 2008-12 called Nude Africa, with the username "minisoldr".
According to CNN, minisoldr posted about enjoying watching "tranny" porn, adding: "Yeah I’m a 'perv' too!"
The BBC has not verified the CNN report.
In 2021, Robinson refused to apologise after he was criticised for saying that children in schools should not be learning about "transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth".
In a video posted to X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday, as the CNN story was being published, he denied wrongdoing.
"Let me reassure you, the things you will see in that story, those are not the words of Mark Robinson," he said.
"We are staying in this race. We are in it to win it."
He said he was the victim of a "high-tech lynching" by his white Democratic opponent, Josh Stein.
Stein's campaign said in a statement that "North Carolinians already know Mark Robinson is completely unfit to be governor".
Opinion polls already suggest Stein, a Harvard-educated lawyer who is currently North Carolina's attorney general, has a firm lead in the race.
The North Carolina Republican Party defended Robinson in a statement, saying "the Left" was "trying to demonise him via personal attacks".
Trump himself did not address the controversy during Thursday night's comments to the Israeli-American Council National Summit, in which he vowed to "stop the toxic poison of antisemitism from spreading all over America and all over the world".
He bemoaned the lack of support he said he was receiving from Jewish voters, saying if he failed to win the election, "the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that".
The Harris campaign posted a video on social media reminding voters of Trump's past praise for Robinson.
The deadline for withdrawing from the governor contest was on Thursday evening, as postal ballots go into the mail on Friday. Early voting in the state begins in less than a month.
Recent polling in North Carolina shows Harris and Trump effectively tied among likely voters.
The Tar Heel State has been a Republican stronghold, with only one Democratic presidential nominee winning there in the last 20-plus years.
Trump narrowly beat Joe Biden in North Carolina four years ago by less than 2%.
Democrats have campaigned heavily in the state this election season.

While Trump himself is not implicated directly, he has endorsed the candidate before and there will be a knock-on effect for the wider party's polling there.

 

[Gloster]

Do I stay or do I go? It is one of these things where you wonder which option is going to keep the most voters on side. Which way will the black vote, the pro- or anti-Nazi vote, or the pro- or anti-porn vote go?
(That should have been a smiley indicating ‘half-serious’ but I have forgotten how to do ‘em.)

 

[brad465]

Trump's "defiance" photo after the first assassination attempt was probably his best campaign photo. Contrast it with this one from the same location months later, which could well be the worst photo:

(Image of Musk jumping for joy behind Trump at a campaign rally)

 

[Harpo]

Or, 'Musk launches Tesla levitation shoes at Trump rally'.

 

[nw1]

Just Musk appearing full stop will hopefully be enough to turn people off.

 

[AM9]

Just Musk appearing full stop will hopefully be enough to turn people off.

Probably not the kind of people that would vote for Trump.

 

[AlterEgo]

Just Musk appearing full stop will hopefully be enough to turn people off.

He is a dreadful public speaker. Deeply unfunny too.

 

[Gloster]

Just Musk appearing full stop will hopefully be enough to turn people off.

But unfortunately there are still plenty of people who idolise him like a pop star: if he says vote for Trump, then some of them will vote for Trump without any further thought. Whether they would have voted for or against Trump or not at all will be the deciding point. Celebrity endorsements are ridiculous: will more people vote Democrat because Taylor Swift gives Harris her endorsement? In her case my feeling is that anyone she gets to vote Democrat probably would have not voted.

Occasionally a celebrity will give sensible reasons why people should vote one way, but usually it will be lost in all the garbage about it being Dean Twonk. Even when they do give a reason, it is often because of some minor point related to a pet hobby-horse, such as a claim that the other party wants to ban the keeping of Patagonian eight-footed sloths outside zoos and Dean Twonk has a dozen of these at home. Or it is just about money…their money staying with them and not being used to pay for the public services used by their fans and which support their sources of money-making.

 

[edwin_m]

But unfortunately there are still plenty of people who idolise him like a pop star: if he says vote for Trump, then some of them will vote for Trump without any further thought. Whether they would have voted for or against Trump or not at all will be the deciding point. Celebrity endorsements are ridiculous: will more people vote Democrat because Taylor Swift gives Harris her endorsement? In her case my feeling is that anyone she gets to vote Democrat probably would have not voted.

Occasionally a celebrity will give sensible reasons why people should vote one way, but usually it will be lost in all the garbage about it being Dean Twonk. Even when they do give a reason, it is often because of some minor point related to a pet hobby-horse, such as a claim that the other party wants to ban the keeping of Patagonian eight-footed sloths outside zoos and Dean Twonk has a dozen of these at home. Or it is just about money…their money staying with them and not being used to pay for the public services used by their fans and which support their sources of money-making.

In the specific case of Taylor Swift, in supporting Harris she's probably going against her own narrow financial interest, as Democrats are more likely to tax billionaires more. And her endorsement mentions reasons: the Trump team produced a fake AI endorsement, wanting to be led led by calm and not chaos, and that Walz has stood up for LBTQ, IVF and a woman's right to her own body.

It seems to me that few Swifties would be voting for Trump anyway, but as you suggest this might make some difference to whether some of them vote for Harris rather than not voting at all.

 

[dgl]

Well Bruce Springsteen has come out in support of Harris/Waltz and he's The Boss so you have to do what he says
He's at least respectable, I wonder how many respectable people have come out in support of Trump, well not anyone who still is respectable!

 

[Acfb]

I'm getting very nervous about the US election particularly about Pennsylvania.

Michael Moore though (who is from Michigan) seems to think Harris will win comfortably and he's got a better track record than most pundits.

 

[brad465]

I'm getting very nervous about the US election particularly about Pennsylvania.

Michael Moore though (who is from Michigan) seems to think Harris will win comfortably and he's got a better track record than most pundits.

The tight polls have me in two minds: on one hand it's anxious about how it looks like it could go either way, but on the other hand tight polls encourage turnout, which will more likely favour Harris. The previous two US elections, and also the most recent UK election, saw polls that looked like the result was in the bag, and in the end overestimated vote/college share for the Democrats/Labour, with one of those seeing Trump win when he looked cert to lose.

 

[nlogax]

No telling which way it'll go. This is - again - going to come down to a couple of key states, primarily Pennsylvania.

If Biden hadn't clung onto the ticket like a limpet and Harris had been installed as a candidate sooner maybe she'd have truly grasped what's needed to win this election. In the few proper interviews she's had she's been giving vague answers and reverting to the spoken word salads of her time as a mere VP. It doesn't inspire confidence.

 

[bahnause]

For the record, the polls haven't moved. What's happened is that GOP funded pollsters flooded the zone with cooked polls that have Trump up +3 in every swing state to make the averages look close.

Meanwhile Trump is literally shi**ing his pants during his incoherent „speeches“, busses people into Coachella (well, a manure farm near Coachella) but „forgets“ to organise/pay busses for the way back, leaving hundreds of his MAGA-Cult followers stranded in the middle if nowhere. It is funny, tragic, fitting, and a metaphor for Trumpism.

Turnout will be the factor deciding the election.