The trains are very empty leaving WGC so that certainly confirms your view. I am sure most from kings cross prefer the faster more comfortable x24 and x54 services. In fact for WGC it is quicker to use them and double back at Welwyn north. I wouldn’t risk it as the service is generally so unreliable.
Not sure how many travelling north of WGC got on at Finsbury Park. Or using the smaller stations after Royston.
I do this doubling back quite a lot (and have suitable Welwyn North season ticket to allow this). In the morning 2C06 0751 King's Cross to Cambridge at 0826 should make 1R11 0812 Baldock to King's Cross at 0833 from Welwyn North. 1R11 is a very comfortable train and I can usually get a seat. It is important to check that 1T12 0812 London Kings Cross to Ely is on time, otherwise 2C06 will be held Digswell Junction and miss 1R11. If 1T12 is late the 0832 WGC to King's Cross (2Y17) is a better bet. Another downside is that 1R11 usually heads for the 'main train-shed' at King's Cross and the walk to Saint Pancras is a little further than from platform 10, where the alternative 2C13 (0822 from WGC) is booked to arrive two minutes earlier. 1R11 is a useful back up when I'm running late, but I normally take 2C13 as I can change at Finsbury Park onto 9S13 0754 Brighton Cambridge to get to Blackfriars.
In the evening I regularly head for 1R52 1824 King's Cross to Royston, which makes 2C55 1644 Cambridge North to King's Cross at Welwyn North with a six minute connection. This saves a full 7 minutes over the alternative 2C48 King's Cross to Cambridge, more if you include time queuing at the exit gates at WGC. Although this is my 'default journey' home, there are some risks. 1R52 can be prone to slightly late starts and it works better if 1R52 starts from a high numbered platform as there are fewer possible conflicts with services arriving at King's Cross. 1R52 can also get held up by 9J54 1655 Horsham Peterborough being crossed onto the fast line at Finsbury Park. At least the walk home through Sherrards Park Woods is nice in the summer if the connection doesn't work!
9J54 is really the reason behind my choice. If this train were more reliable, I would take this from Blackfriars to Finsbury Park and change to 2C48, but 9J54 is often 6 - 8 minutes late through the core and can easily miss 2C48, so I leave work slightly ahead and walk from St. Pancras to King's Cross for 1R52. On Mondays I do the same but an hour earlier and that usually works too.
I do see a few other passengers double back like this, but quite a few more faces I used to see at WGC have switched from WGC to Welwyn North to avoid the slower post May 2018 journeys from WGC and take advantage of the faster journeys from Welwyn North.
This Monday, I found a novel way for it all to go wrong. The train to Welwyn North was on time, the return train was shown on Real Time Trains as on time. Only when I got to Welwyn North, the return train (2C51 1644 Cambridge North to King's Cross) was shown as Cancelled, despite being at Knebworth according to the Open Train Times map. The next two trains to King's Cross were also shown as cancelled. Faced with an open ended delay, I asked (along with another passenger) what was happening. The booking clerk and dispatcher had no idea, and the former called control to be told that there had been a diesel spill earlier and Up trains were not stopping (another class 180 no doubt). This came as a surprise to both the dispatcher and the booking clerk, neither of whom had been told this. Sure enough 2C51 crawled slowly past (the signal on the viaduct was red) but didn't stop and I had no option but to go further north to Knebworth for the train back to WGC half an hour after 2C51.
I would be interested in the logic of spilt diesel fuel being sufficient a hazard to close a platform to trains stopping, but not so hazardous to prevent electric trains being allowed to pass at slow or line speed and the platform to still be accessed by both passengers and staff and further it not being necessary to advise the station staff that the hazard was there at all. Whilst I presume that the decision was taken (presumably by a Network Rail Mobile Operations Manager) for sensible reasons, could they (or GTR control if it was they who were advised by the MOM) not at least have provided a basic explanation for their station colleagues to offer passengers?
I know I don’t know the driver diagrams. But I will never understand why let’s say the 1221 leaves kings cross 10 minutes late why it is now fast to Stevenage? Why put in the 5 mins dwell at Finsbury Park, the 3 mins at WGC and have longer sectional times if you are going to skip at the smallest delay.
In addition to having extra time in the above locations several of the peak trains are booked to catch up a Moorgate to WGC train and crawl behind it from Potters Bar to WGC - often leading to announcements about the slow running from drivers or complaints in phone conversations about delays - neither realizing that it is supposed to be like this. I have been on 2C48 1821 King's Cross to Cambridge when it has left 10 minutes late and followed its booked route and stopping pattern and still arrived at WGC on time!