A driver wouldn't be expected to know the line on their booked route would be blocked though, would they?
Actually they should know as this information is made available via publications such as the STN (Special Traffic Notice), Late Alternations Board (At depots), WON (Weekly Operation Notice) etc so there really is no reason for any train crew to not be aware of any engineering works unless this information is not made available which is highly unlikely.
I don't think the Government will run it themselves. It's the ultimate poisoned chalice. I know LNER is publicly owned but that's a very simple operation, fewer than 50 trains running around 150 services a day. GTR is on a different scale and I doubt the Government would want to be associated with operating it directly.
What I do think we'll see is an announcement about accelerating the break up of GTR. For example:
- Moorgate services to TfL
- Cambridge/Kings Lynn fasts to LNER
- Southern as a separate franchise
- That leaves the rump of the 'traditional' old First Capital Connect services to operate a new Thameslink franchise
Personally I wouldn't want to see the Cambridge/Kings Lynn services transfer to LNER. I believe they should stay with Thameslink simply because at times of disruption the Cambridge/Kings Lynn services are used to make additional calls and if it is a separate franchise this is less likely to happen.
I agree and disagree with your post, for example:
I agree that the proposed breakup of GTR will happen sooner then later, maybe brought forward to 2020.
I agree that we will likely see:
Moorgate services to London Overground with extension of Oyster to Welwyn Garden City and Hertford North (I believe it is proposed as far as Watton at Stone but that is a station too far imo)
Southern Metro eventually going to London Overground
Cambridge/Kings Lynn fasts to LNER which has been proposed and I think is a likely outcome however they could equally go to the Anglia Franchise.
Southern as a separate franchise including Gatwick Express and West London Line services minus the Metro services
With the remaining Great Northern and Thameslink services being branded as Thameslink even these which don't go though the Core.
I disagree that the Cambridge/Kings Lynns Expresses ought to stay with Thameslink just because they can make extra stops in times of disruption for the simple reason that they can do that regardless of who operates these routes for example in times of disruption LNER and their predecessors can and do call at Huntingdon even though they are not operated by GTR or their predecessors.