No need to replace the Desiros any time soon. They have a *lot* of life left in them. The 159s... not so much. They need a replacement ordering fairly soon. It'll have to be a bi-mode, given decarbonisation efforts, and I think adding some extra units to replace the 458s could make sense, if the leasing rates workout. . But do they really need replacing? They're not that much older than the Desiros.
I cannot see hydrogen as anything other than a boondoggle. It *might* make sense where there's a good source of hydrogen nearby (Did someone say something about Sunderland? Can't remember) but there isn't one between Basingstoke and Exeter. There are currently 2 viable possibilities for Basingstoke to Exeter- either diesel or electrify. Battery tech might work further in the future when the tech has improved, but not now on a route that long. I do think that any bi-mode should have batteries fitted for regen however. *Might* be possible to do the services that start at Salisbury with batteries to Basingstoke, especially if the units have diesels onboard anyway for the longer trips as a 'just in case', or during the winter when the batteries have to also supply power for heat. A lot of complexity to be doing the PDL! I think a DC only variant though would be a good idea- kind of like the 803 vs the 800/802.
The current 458 plan is for 8 or 12 cars on the PDL, right? 10-car trains made of 5 23m long cars (like the 444s) would work well IMO for both PDL and WoE. Fractionally shorter than a 12-car 458, but not much, and would be made up partly by only having one pair of cabs stuck in the middle of the train and fewer joins between cars overall too.
But all of this costs money, in particular upfront capital costs. And we all know that the current government isn't keen on that, even if it saves money in the long run and builds the economy of areas with improved transport links.
I think the '230 bi-mode units' means two hundred and thirty trains, not Class 230s...