Here we go again, Northern and TPE throwing in the towel at the mere possibility of severe weather. According to the current Met Office forecast, Edale (normally the worst affected station) can expect light snow overnight Thursday then a mainly dry albeit cold day on Friday. Hardly extreme weather!
Depends on which forecast you look at. If you subscribe to Windy.com, you can run all the main models- ECMWF, Met Office, GFS, Arome, Icon etc. The more they agree, the higher the likelihood that conditions will be as forecast.... as they all represent different models.
Whereas if the models don't agree, it indicates that the conditions are very difficult and dynamic, and so the outcome could be very different. They are not in agreement betwene rain or snow at the moment.
If you watch the Met Office Deep Dives on you-tube, they often explain the different model run results and the probability of each one being "the one" which happens.
Network Rail have access to detailed forcasts from multiple models and the probabilities. They will then make decisions which reflect both the probabilities of the weather and the potential consequence. In the light of recent cases (e.g. Carmont) and the general intolerance of the public to anything not resembling perfection, it's not surprising if they err on the more cautions side of the options. Certainly they would be castigated (and possibly individuals prosecuted) if the aftermath of an incident they did not......
The thing is, though, that trains will run. You can guarantee freight will run, possibly with diversions in place.
The reality is that, time and again, this approach taken by TOCs is less about safety and more about the inconvenience of trying to move people when the advertised timetable can't be delivered, reflecting the operational inflexibility of the railway in 2025 (eg: incompatible coupling of rolling stock, limited crew route knowledge restricting options to divert, overly rigid unit plans giving little scope to recover the following days schedule if units are out of place).
Employers wouldn't expect people not to turn in because of an amber weather warning, the railway shouldn't use this as an excuse to stop delivering.
Not necesssarily...... you cannot guarantee freight will run..... FOCs will also be making arrangements to change/reschedule services in line with the weather.
No, that’s not what it means. From the Met Office:
The last 6 words being key.
Weather warnings such as this by their nature have to cover a wide area, and can’t deal with the intircacies of very local affects.
The weather forecast supplied to the Railway today shows potentially 30-40cm of snow, locally, in the area of the Hope Valley line between 1200 tomorrow and 0600 Friday, with most of that falling overnight. This is the worst weather in the whole country, equalled only by parts of mid-Wales. Clearly the forecast could be wrong. But given that is the best forecast available, from the professionals; it is wise to take heed.
Indeed, as I indicate above, forecasting is an inexact thing and the specific boundaries between what falls as rain or snow is a particular challenge as it's effected by so many variables.
I'd put money on my Tesco and Amazon order still turning up tomorrow!
I wouldn't be so sure. We had a dump of snow last week, 4 inches or so. Amazon and Royal Mail gave up until the road was finally gritted and clear- yesterday. Refuse collection ditto. Couldn't get up the hill without 4x4 and winter tyres until Tuesday so no, Tesco wouldn't have been out either.
I don't think you understand the nature of the Hope Valley. Once the roads close they are closed, snow chains or otherwise.
Snake Pass (A57) was closed yesterday by Derbyshire Police due to (separate) poor weather conditions.
Indeed. Once the snow is more than about 6 inches or so, you are not getting through without ploughing (or in a tractor). If there is also wind and the snow drifts- not a chance until the plough has cleared the drifts.
In the north Pennines in the 1980's, drifting snow was regular, so there was a fleet of snow ploughs (including some big v-shovel jobs) and snow blowers which went out to clear the roads. Along the side of the road were black and which striped poles a couple of metres high- these were to assist clearing the roads in winter- helped the clearance crews know they were clearign in the correct place becasue in drifting snow it can be difficult.
I was just listening to a meteorological expert on the radio and they were quite clear that predicting snowfall when rain hits cold fronts (as in this case) is such an inexact science, even a few hours beforehand, that people in the Potteries could wake up to a foot of snow tomorrow, a big pile of slush., or anything in between.
Around this time last year (when we had a decent dumping of snow here in North Yorkshire) I remember a Met Office bod saying quite candidly that anyone who predicts heavy snow in low-lying areas with 100% certainty more than 24 hours ahead is simply guessing.
Indeed, the Met Office Deep Dive on You-tube yesterday was saying the same thing, explaining how the weather system will cross over between the warm and cold sides of the jet stream and the warm and cold air wrap around each other making the end result extremely unpredictable, especailly as in these conditions, 1 or 2 degrees Celcius is the difference between rain or snow falling.
Such is life.
TPO
weather.metoffice.gov.uk
