I thought the loop was already fully Thameslink ?
I mean it will operate as a Thameslink train full time in that it won't terminate at Blackfriars at any time as it does now at times that elude me (Sundays?)
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Had a further dig and not sure which CX service exactly will be cut but saw it in a NR presentation online about tph capacity before and after 2018 - 29 an hour down to 28. Cannon Street capacity drops from 25 before 2015 to 22 after 2018 - net loss of 4 trains per hour in the peaks.
With Thameslink on SE territory, we have Catford services going from 2 to 4 an hour in the peaks I believe? The Maidstone ones will go via Bromley and just 2 per hour in the peaks? And only 8 car services too?
So the numbers of TL trains going into Southeastern territory will still be very small and wont do much for the wider SE network. The increase would be a gain of 4 services in peak hours, against a loss of SE capacity at London terminals of 4 trains in the peak hour. So no net change in service frequency for SE commuters as a result of the work, though more CX trains will stop at London Bridge.
I'm really just trying to get a grip on improvements for SE passengers in terms of train frequency from across the network to London Bridge as plans seem to fluctuate. I make it none, but of course other benefits do accrue such as less congestion on approaches and far more trains onwards through the core.
But no net additional trains reaching London Bridge after 2018 means its not really an improvement that will give huge long lasting changes for frequencies on various SE lines. So I wonder what the plans are to cope with long term SE growth - Crossrail taking some passengers and then Bakerloo by 2030 to free up some paths, and even that is far from guaranteed.
Depends how you look at benefits. There are no extra trains in SE territory that I can see, indeed one of my major bones of contention has been that the Wimbledon Loop business cost the Catford loop its long awaited 4tph because by continuing north of Blackfriars it takes the two paths that were needed and causes a new conflict. Before the politicians got involved 4tph on both routes was proposed. It's not clear what happens in the peak, the Maidstones are peak only but if they are to take the role of the current skip stoppers eg miss Nunhead, Crofton Park, Beckenham Hill, Ravensbourne etc, I don't know.
As for wider benefits, well, SE passengers will benefit from the much better service to Blackfriars, Farringdon, Kings Cross/St Pancras and beyond, albeit with a change at London Bridge. And plenty of Catford Loop users are bound to find a direct train to say, City Thameslink, handy, albeit with a reduced frequency. And of course the knock on effects of all the grade separation, Borough Market viaduct etc will hopefully make all journeys through London Bridge easier.
I'm not sure we can necessarily gauge benefits in terms of direct trains alone any more as the network gets busier, for example even though I don't have any reason to use Cannon Street, I'd prefer 4tph all stations to Cannon Street on the Hayes line rather than 2 of them going to Charing Cross that run fast from Ladywell, on the basis that it would be a predictable turn up and go service. To my mind that would be worth the slower journey and the change at London Bridge for Charing Cross - as long as I know there are frequent trains at every interchange that don't have different stopping patterns, the ability to effectively throw away the timetable is as good as it gets in lieu of having a tube line.
