South Wales 'Metro' updates

[Llanigraham]

Abolition of the severn bridge tolls serves no purpose other than to be used as a populist vote winner. At the start of the year Alan Cairns was talking about a £3 free flowing toll each way. Then an election came along and surprise! The tolls are being scrapped! Traffic congestion caused by the tolls abolition will be horrendous. However it's a decision where no mainstream party could be seen to be going against forfear of upsetting the motorist.

When the first Severn Bridge was opened we were told that tolls would only be charged for (I think) 10 years, which would be when the bridge had been paid for.

Now what year was that????

And did they stop?

 

[daikilo]

No doubt well get someone posting that it makes the M4 Relief Road more imperative. However can they answer what happens to all that extra traffic when it gets to Cardiff Gate and Coryton Interchange?

Unfortunately, if the 20% value is true and if it includes peak times then yes, more lanes are needed. If that means around Cardiff also then that needs to be funded and designed as well.

As it happens, I don't believe 20%, or anything like it, just for tolls suppression, where will they come from?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Unfortunately, if the 20% value is true and if it includes peak times then yes, more lanes are needed. If that means around Cardiff also then that needs to be funded and designed as well.

As it happens, I don't believe 20%, or anything like it, just for tolls suppression, where will they come from?

Unfortunately, if the 20% value is true and if it includes peak times then yes, more lanes are needed. If that means around Cardiff also then that needs to be funded and designed as well.

As it happens, I don't believe 20%, or anything like it, just for tolls suppression, where will they come from?

So there's space then is There? You sure, thought it through?

 

[Gareth Marston]

When the first Severn Bridge was opened we were told that tolls would only be charged for (I think) 10 years, which would be when the bridge had been paid for.

Now what year was that????

And did they stop?

Trouble is those bridges are not maintaence free

 

[Dai Corner]

Trouble is those bridges are not maintaence free

They will be from the Welsh point of view as Highways England will be picking up the bill. No impact whatsoever on funding for the South Wales Metro (to get back on topic).

 

[gareth950]

Unfortunately, if the 20% value is true and if it includes peak times then yes, more lanes are needed. If that means around Cardiff also then that needs to be funded and designed as well.

As it happens, I don't believe 20%, or anything like it, just for tolls suppression, where will they come from?

17% increase in traffic if the tolls are only halved.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-wales-politics-40671900

 

[daikilo]

17% increase in traffic if the tolls are only halved.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-wales-politics-40671900

The article also mentions 7% at Brynglas and only 2% at Cardiff. This suggests the model is generating a lot of short-distance traffic which is presumably either using an alternative mode or not travelling at present. I still find th numbers high and needy of access to the detailed flow analysis. That said, 7% at Brynglas should have everyone in a panic as there is no way the M4 relief can be built by end 2018.

 

[gareth950]

The article also mentions 7% at Brynglas and only 2% at Cardiff. This suggests the model is generating a lot of short-distance traffic which is presumably either using an alternative mode or not travelling at present. I still find th numbers high and needy of access to the detailed flow analysis. That said, 7% at Brynglas should have everyone in a panic as there is no way the M4 relief can be built by end 2018.

Indeed, so rather than thinking about their short term interests for political gain, politicians should do the sensible thing and not scrap the tolls! It's 2017 not 1967, government needs to be encouraging people out of their cars, not into them!

I'm aware that we are off topic now discussing the Severn Bridge and M4, but what money is spent on the M4 and whatever happens with the relief road will have a direct and major effect and what form the 'Metro' system ends up taking, or if we even get a Metro system at all.

 

[Dai Corner]

Indeed, so rather than thinking about their short term interests for political gain, politicians should do the sensible thing and not scrap the tolls! It's 2017 not 1967, government needs to be encouraging people out of their cars, not into them!

I'm aware that we are off topic now discussing the Severn Bridge and M4, but what money is spent on the M4 and whatever happens with the relief road will have a direct and major effect and what form the 'Metro' system ends up taking, or if we even get a Metro system at all.

But it is claimed that scrapping the tolls will be worth £100M to the Welsh economy. That's worth having, surely? The projected increases in traffic suggest the economic growth will be in Newport and Monmouthshire. All that additional economic activity for the Welsh Government to tax without it costing them a penny and available to spend on things like, say, a Metro for Cardiff.

 

[daikilo]

But it is claimed that scrapping the tolls will be worth £100M to the Welsh economy. That's worth having, surely? The projected increases in traffic suggest the economic growth will be in Newport and Monmouthshire. All that additional economic activity for the Welsh Government to tax without it costing them a penny and available to spend on things like, say, a Metro for Cardiff.

If the maths work, yes, but even today's traffic reality brings them into question. For me the opposite of a miracle is a disaster, and miracles don't happen.

 

[Dai Corner]

If the maths work, yes, but even today's traffic reality brings them into question. For me the opposite of a miracle is a disaster, and miracles don't happen.

Indeed. Hence my use of 'claimed' and 'projected'. I don't see a case for charging tolls just to suppress demand though.

 

[gareth950]

But it is claimed that scrapping the tolls will be worth £100M to the Welsh economy. That's worth having, surely? The projected increases in traffic suggest the economic growth will be in Newport and Monmouthshire. All that additional economic activity for the Welsh Government to tax without it costing them a penny and available to spend on things like, say, a Metro for Cardiff.

Carwyn Jones has made it clear he does not intend to use any tax raising powers that Welsh Govt acquires before the 2021 Welsh election.
As the future generations law states, factors other than just the economy have to be taken into account when making decisions about major Welsh Govt policies and projects.

 

[Dai Corner]

Carwyn Jones has made it clear he does not intend to use any tax raising powers that Welsh Govt acquires before the 2021 Welsh election.
As the future generations law states, factors other than just the economy have to be taken into account when making decisions about major Welsh Govt policies and projects.

Well if Carwyn Jones wants expensive things like Metros and motorways he has to either raise taxes or borrow money and pass on the debts to future generations. Or wait until his boss in London gets into power and does so.

 

[Gareth Marston]

But it is claimed that scrapping the tolls will be worth £100M to the Welsh economy. That's worth having, surely? The projected increases in traffic suggest the economic growth will be in Newport and Monmouthshire. All that additional economic activity for the Welsh Government to tax without it costing them a penny and available to spend on things like, say, a Metro for Cardiff.

There's some wishful thinking going on there.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Surprise surprise the Heads of the Valleys Road fantasy is chronically late and over budget and people still don't get why public transport gets squeezed..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-41671623
A review has been ordered into Wales' largest current road building scheme, amid concerns it is running over budget and is behind schedule.

Economy Secretary Ken Skates wants a "comprehensive" look at the £220m project to dual the eastern section of the A465 Heads of the Valleys.

It was due to be completed by the spring of 2019.

But BBC Wales understands that it is now likely to be delayed - with significant cost implications.

 

[daikilo]

220 million for 4 miles or is that the whole route? Anyway, did it get to the equivalent of GRIP4(?) before being authorised?

 

[Gareth Marston]

220 million for 4 miles or is that the whole route? Anyway, did it get to the equivalent of GRIP4(?) before being authorised?

According to a source in the local Labour party it was a round of Golf at Celtic Manor and a promise to put something in the party funds....

Yep its BCR was worked out using £220 million for 4 miles........and that wasn't particularly good far worse than rail schemes that have never been given a green light but don't worry as at the official opening it will all be smiles and hints that it will magically transform the valleys into the land of milk and honey....

 

[Gareth Marston]

Some news from Welsh Government and Skates its an investment bonanza etc

In the video clip Skates say new franchise will be running by oct 18.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-41755186

 

[CardiffKid]

Skates say new franchise will be running by oct 18.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-41755186

But at what point will the public notice any difference/improvment?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Your not going to see spades in the ground on the South Wales Metro much before end of 2019.
New Rolling Stock for South Wales Metro will not happen until infrastructure work is done.
New Rolling Stock for Mainline might happen late 2020/early 2021, cascaded stock maybe earlier dependent on other new stock being delivered to other franchises.
I would expect Skates & Co at the Welsh Government to shout and scream its the greatest thing since sliced bread when the preferred bidder is announced in Feb and then very little detail will emerge until the new franchisee takes over.
You'll be lucky to see any real noticeable difference till the next decade.

 

[daikilo]

But at what point will the public notice any difference/improvment?

They will first notice a difference when the current trains stop running to rebuild the infrastructure and add OHLE!

 

[CardiffKid]

You'll be lucky to see any real noticeable difference till the next decade.

Exactly

 

[gareth950]

But at what point will the public notice any difference/improvment?

Difference will be noticed when Pacers go in December 2019 (I'm assuming). Whether there will be sufficent trains got from elsehwere to cover the Pacers absence and provide increased capacity is another matter.

Notice also how the announcemnt of the winner of the Metro and new franchise has now slipped from initially December this year, then to January next year, and now according to that BBC article, sometime 'next Spring'.

 

[PHILIPE]

The Metro has become a distraction from the renewal of the franchise.

 

[CardiffKid]

Difference will be noticed when Pacers go in December 2019 (I'm assuming). Whether there will be sufficent trains got from elsehwere to cover the Pacers absence and provide increased capacity is another matter.

Notice also how the announcemnt of the winner of the Metro and new franchise has now slipped from initially December this year, then to January next year, and now according to that BBC article, sometime 'next Spring'.

People will definitely notice the pacers going (although if the public can differentiate from the 142/143s and the 150/153s will be another thing), my concern is that there won't be enough rolling stock brought in from elsewhere to cover the pacers and they'll either be a lot more overcrowding or Transport for Wales/WG/ToC will be fined despite this being known about for eight years now.

 

[CapitalStar378]

Will there be options for more 769s should the need arise?

I suppose it depends if it's worth Porterbrook's investment and the outcome of the ITT/electrification plans but there don't seem to be many other diesel options at present.

 

[gareth950]

Will there be options for more 769s should the need arise?

I suppose it depends if it's worth Porterbrook's investment and the outcome of the ITT/electrification plans but there don't seem to be many other diesel options at present.

Considering that 5 x 769s will be entering service on the Valleys next summer, I'd say 769s are the most obvious short term solution for Pacer replacement and boosting capacity. 'Short-term' could well mean 10 years though. If heavy rail electrification is chosen for the Valleys you've got the obvious benefit of 769s being OHLE ready once the wires are up.

 

[Gareth Marston]

All depends how desperate Labour Ministers are to have something shiny and new to proclaim to the people of South Wales. Remember the press release and generation of perception is more important than the reality of whats being provided.

Heavy Rail is the best solution for the Valleys as a whole and using 769's does tick the Pacer problem box and allows for resources to be put into getting the wires up first and worry about finding money for shiny new trains later. Whether's there's any common sense used is another matter entirely. Poor Carwyn could of been presiding over the opening of the first sections of the Metro already puffing his chest out and taking plaudits whilst Grayling was floundering instead Welsh Labour have gone down the dual the A465 road route and are not getting anything but negative headlines about cost overruns. How ironic that Welsh Labour have blown a golden opportunity to get one over on the Torys because of their roads obsession.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Considering that 5 x 769s will be entering service on the Valleys next summer, I'd say 769s are the most obvious short term solution for Pacer replacement and boosting capacity. 'Short-term' could well mean 10 years though. If heavy rail electrification is chosen for the Valleys you've got the obvious benefit of 769s being OHLE ready once the wires are up.

Yes, that probably makes more sense. Get 769s in on diesel on all services, get the wires up (and start using them) as and when funds allow, and once all the wires are up it'll be time for a new fleet of EMUs. Like 230s are perfect for the Marston Vale "niche" (needing a DMU with about 10 years' life suitable for 2x20m platforms - I still reckon these three units will be the only 230s sold) 769s are perfect for this "niche" (a 4x20m bi-mode with about 10 years' life available quickly).

 

[PeterC]

According to a source in the local Labour party it was a round of Golf at Celtic Manor and a promise to put something in the party funds....

Yep its BCR was worked out using £220 million for 4 miles........and that wasn't particularly good far worse than rail schemes that have never been given a green light but don't worry as at the official opening it will all be smiles and hints that it will magically transform the valleys into the land of milk and honey....

The section in question goes through the Clydach Gorge. I drove down there a month or so back and the amount of rock being moved was huge. I have no idea if the cost is justified but I would expect it to be massively more expensive than a similar project in the open country of an English shire.